Rival61-migration

I still think the likely source of the surviving populations has more to do with collectors than warehouse finds, although warehouse finds certainly could be a contibuting factor. Both can have bizarre effects of prices, as evidenced by SS#4. SS#4 is the second most populous of all of the SS issues in High grade with a whopping 60 in 9.4 or better, this from a "Low distribution" issue. The exception is #2, which was found in huge quantities in several warehouse caches, which has 62. Yet SS #4 still sells at a premium of nearly 8X the price of #2. This is an exceptional case in point for supply and demand, the perception of the rarity of an issue radically overshadows the actual populations. With similar CGC populations, the price for obtaining either should be equal. Are there really enough more people seeking #4 than #2 to justify these premiums? Once again, I believe the number of high-grade issues which are collected, bagged, and backed within the first 10 years of an issues lifetime is a factor as strong if not stronger than warehouse finds. Typical warehouse lots yield 10 or less of a specific issue, with a few notable exceptions (FF#44 for example). This cannot easily compete with hundreds bagged and backed in collections and put away for 30 years, especially because collected issues bagged and backed are probably better protected against the elements than are warehouse lots. CGC and their census is doing wonders stripping the myth away from the scarcity of issues, especially as the CGC pool is sold and resold. CGC issues are a commodity unto themselves and unslabbed books today are only loosely tied to them in respect to market prices. As the years wind by, and the populations stabilize even further, I think we will be in for some real price shockes as high-grade examples of what were always considered "non-key" or "filler" issues match and in some cases exceed the key prices due simply because of an actual scarcity caused by their past non-collectability. This is already occurring in the Non-MH2/ warehouse issues of FF that find their way to ebay. But these are still just my opinions, I don't see a way to prove it either way. -Rival

I think there might be a severely overlooked factor in play for scarcity of issues, and it can easilly be illustrated with the FF #48/49 discrepancy case. In all likelyhood, both distribution and sales were quite similar for each issue, and I do not believe that one was found in warehouse troves whereas the other was not. The actual deciding factor (in my opinion) was the number which were saved by collectors in the 70's. I collected in the early 70's, and EVERYONE knew FF#48 was the first appearance of the Silver Surfer. Less than 10 years had passed, but it was already recognized as a collectable. No one cared that #49 was the first cover appearance, nor even cared about the #50 either. When a copy of #48 appeared it was quickly snapped up by collectors, bagged and backed, and put away. That to me explains the discrepancy quite well. Collectors may not have hoarded them in the 60's, but by the time the 70's rolled around, they were a staple in the serious collection. #49, #50, etc were never treated in such regard, and therefore were not preserved in the sheer numbers which #48 attained. You could find worn copies of FF#50 getting dog-eared in 10-cent boxes at every convention, but #48 was aways up on the wall. This "reverse preservation" has depleted the supply of #49 and #50 over the years, leaving far fewer examples of high-quality specimens than their big brother #48. As for pricing, it's still a [#@$%!!!]-shoot. Demand for #48 will always be higher than for #49 or #50, and likewise the later issues will always be in tighter supply. It is up to the market to decide which ones have more value on any given day. -Rival