How many copies of Hulk #181 in CGC 9.4 or better condition exist?

[MMMarvel-migration]

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MMMarvel-migration]

Don't be shy to say you think there are over 10,000 CGC 9.4 copies of Hulk #181 existing if that is how you voted.

[MMMarvel-migration]

Hmmm how many of the 5 people that say 10,000 copies of CGC 9.4 Hulk #181 exist know people with 10 or more HG copies?

[joe_collector]

It's amusing, but I actually voted for 7) 6,001 or 10,000, even though it wouldn't be hard to see more 9.4's than that.

[MMMarvel-migration]

It's amusing, but I actually voted for 7) 6,001 or 10,000, even though it wouldn't be hard to see more 9.4's than that.

 

I thought for sure you were one of the ones that voted for 8). These results make for interesting speculation.

[joe_collector]

I thought for sure you were one of the ones that voted for 8). These results make for interesting speculation.

 

Like I said before, I'd like to hook a lie detector to the board members/dealers and find out how many are sitting there.

[blowout]

I don't think there's any doubt that there's many thousands of NM copies of this book out there. A VERY well looked after issue from pretty much day one.

[MMMarvel-migration]

I don't think there's any doubt that there's many thousands of NM copies of this book out there. A VERY well looked after issue from pretty much day one.

 

JC and Your theory about there being tons of these in HG because it was collected and hoarded from day one because of the popularity of GS X-men #1 and X-men #94 makes sense. The results of this poll with most people saying they think there are over 10,000 CGC 9.4 or better copies seems to back up your theory. However, when I go to the other poll that asks "How many people do you know that have 10+ CGC 9.4 copies of Hulk #181" the vast majority of people polled say ZERO. Am I missing something or does that one person that said he knew 26+ people with 10+ copies actually know 26+ people with hundreds if not thousands of copies? Is there a Hulk #181 cult out there that has yet to be discovered that has kept their vast hoarded amounts of Hulk #181 a secret from everyone else in the comic business? It just seems so unlikely to me that there would be 10,000+ HG copies out there, but almost nobody even knows 1 person with 10 copies. It just doesn't add up, but makes for a fun debate.

[Bugaboo-migration]

There's a chance that people may be having a little fun by screwing around with the voting too.

[joe_collector]

It just seems so unlikely to me that there would be 10,000+ HG copies out there, but almost nobody even knows 1 person with 10 copies. It just doesn't add up, but makes for a fun debate.

 

It makes sense if you think about it logically. Let's say you visited Chuck after he bought the MH2 collection and picked up a NM Hulk 181 from the large stack, or went over to Koch's mega-warehouse in the 80's and thumbed through a longbox of Hulk 181 and pulled out a NM+ from the NM hoarde?

 

Most forum members don't personally know those guys as friends, but that doesn't mean they haven't seen some scary sights.

[MMMarvel-migration]

There's a chance that people may be having a little fun by screwing around with the voting too.

 

This is true. I guess you can always throw out the bottom and top scores and take the average. It isn't scientific, but who cares. It is just of fun anyhow.

[MMMarvel-migration]

It just seems so unlikely to me that there would be 10,000+ HG copies out there, but almost nobody even knows 1 person with 10 copies. It just doesn't add up, but makes for a fun debate.

 

It makes sense if you think about it logically. Let's say you visited Chuck after he bought the MH2 collection and picked up a NM Hulk 181 from the large stack, or went over to Koch's mega-warehouse in the 80's and thumbed through a longbox of Hulk 181 and pulled out a NM+ from the NM hoarde?

 

Most forum members don't personally know those guys as friends, but that doesn't mean they haven't seen some scary sights.

 

Here is my logic.

 

Marvel prints 200,000 copies of Hulk #181.

 

By the time they are boxed and ready to ship I would say only about 150,000 would meet CGC 9.4 standards (taking into account printing errors etc..).

 

During the shipping process more comics are damaged and now only 75,000 meet the CGC 9.4 standard.

 

Once comics arrive at grocery, drug, and convenance store Billy Bob the stocker grabs a stack of them with his dirty meathooks and puts them on the spin rack and now only 35,000 exist in CGC 9.4 or better condition.

 

Before you are able to make it to your local store the local bully Angus and his ' brother Jimmy have already manhandled just about every issue on the spin racks which leaves about 12,000 in CGC 9.4 condition left.

 

A few kids who take the time to search through the spin racks are lucky enough to find a CGC 9.4 copy that Angus and Jimmy didn't ruin and they take them up to Ms. Bertha at the checkout. Ms Bertha handles the comic with all the care of a 600 pound guerrilla so only 6,000 make it home in NM condition.

 

Peter who is one of the lucky few to get a NM copy home carelessly leaves it out and his cousin Marvin grabs it to read while he does his business being sure to leave it on the wet sink after he finished reading it leaving 3,000 left.

 

25 years later Jack sees all the hype of the X-men movies and thinks back to the time when he bought the 1st appearance of Wolverine. He goes over to his parents house to the attic where he carefully stored away his prize comic collecting of his youth. Unfortunately, he finds out Mom cleaned the attic out a few years back and burned them leaving 1,500 in NM condition.

 

I could be wrong and someone stored thousands of comics away at some point in this process, but I doubt it.

[joe_collector]

I could be wrong and someone stored thousands of comics away at some point in this process, but I doubt it.

 

You are missng an entire section of the print run, and that's the "back-door" comics that went to dealers, comics never distributed that were *supposed* to be destroyed, and the unsold (sometimes undisplayed) books sent back from retail. You're wrongly assuming that 100% of the run hit retail in the first place.

 

For fun, do the same experiment on some MH2 books like Thor 156 or Captain Marvel 13, where over 10K unsold issues, and literally thousands of NM copies, were found.

 

It doesn't quite work.

[MMMarvel-migration]

I could be wrong and someone stored thousands of comics away at some point in this process, but I doubt it.

 

You are missng an entire section of the print run, and that's the "back-door" comics that went to dealers, comics never distributed that were *supposed* to be destroyed, and the unsold (sometimes undisplayed) books sent back from retail. You're wrongly assuming that 100% of the run hit retail in the first place.

 

For fun, do the same experiment on some MH2 books like Thor 156 or Captain Marvel 13, where over 10K unsold issues, and literally thousands of NM copies, were found.

 

It doesn't quite work.

 

What % of the 200,000 could have possibly gone directly to dealers? How many of those were displayed and manhandled by customers? Even if they weren't displayed a good portion of them wouldn't have made if through the printing process and shipping to arrive in CGC 9.4 condition.

 

I don't think we can use the Thor 156 or Captain Marvel 13 analogy because neither one of those had a 1st appearance of a character (I think). Also, neither of those titles were as popular as the Hulk (from what I understand). However, they would have to endure the same process as any other comics. The only question would be how many were never displayed by dealers and then weren't destroyed like they were suppose to be. Maybe a higher average would have survived compared to Hulk #181, but not dramatically higher IMHO.

[joe_collector]

What % of the 200,000 could have possibly gone directly to dealers? How many of those were displayed and manhandled by customers? Even if they weren't displayed a good portion of them wouldn't have made if through the printing process and shipping to arrive in CGC 9.4 condition.

 

You're obviously dead-set on proving Hulk 181 is somehow rare in 9.4, so feel free to continue thinking so.

 

You also are under the misinterpretation that the printing and bundling would eliminate a good percentage from CGC 9.4. This is simply not the case in my experience, though it does keep the majority out of CGC 9.8 though.

 

There are plenty of single-owner collections (especially Bronze), bought off the newstand, that come back CGC 9.4-9.6 consistently, so it's not like the act of printing, bundling, distributing and racking the books takes them out of contention for a 9.4 grade.

[dam60]

Here is my logic.

 

Marvel prints 200,000 copies of Hulk #181.

 

By the time they are boxed and ready to ship I would say only about 150,000 would meet CGC 9.4 standards (taking into account printing errors etc..).

 

I think that a 25% default rage from the printers is very aggressive . . .

 

During the shipping process more comics are damaged and now only 75,000 meet the CGC 9.4 standard.

 

Assuming that all 200,000 shipped (which I have no reason to believe that they didn't) that's saying that 62.5% were damaged BEFORE hitting the newstand? Sorry dude, can't back that one up . . .

 

Once comics arrive at grocery, drug, and convenance store Billy Bob the stocker grabs a stack of them with his dirty meathooks and puts them on the spin rack and now only 35,000 exist in CGC 9.4 or better condition.

 

You keep knocking the number roughly in half, but how do you factor in the high probability that some of the damage being done to these books by Billy Bob is damage to books that already picked up flaws in the first two steps? If you think that now 35,000 or so of these books exist now, that means that a resounding 82.5% of the issues were damaged from cgc 9.4 (please note the distinction between 9.4 and 9.8) from: (1) printing (2) shipping (3) Billy Bob.

 

I think that that number is way too high and IMO, I would call it out at maybe 1/3 TOPs of that number to be from 9.4. If you are talking about NM+/NM/MT I would have an easier time believing you.

 

 

[MMMarvel-migration]

What % of the 200,000 could have possibly gone directly to dealers? How many of those were displayed and manhandled by customers? Even if they weren't displayed a good portion of them wouldn't have made if through the printing process and shipping to arrive in CGC 9.4 condition.

 

You're obviously dead-set on proving Hulk 181 is somehow rare in 9.4, so feel free to continue thinking so.

 

You also are under the misinterpretation that the printing and bundling would eliminate a good percentage from CGC 9.4. This is simply not the case in my experience, though it does keep the majority out of CGC 9.8 though.

 

There are plenty of single-owner collections (especially Bronze), bought off the newstand, that come back CGC 9.4-9.6 consistently, so it's not like the act of printing, bundling, distributing and racking the books takes them out of contention for a 9.4 grade.

 

OK, lets just look at raw numbers.

 

Currently, of the 1,475 (or .007% of the print run) Hulk #181 only 178 came back as CGC 9.4 grade and higher or about 12%.

 

Now lets assume all 200,000 were submitted. At 12% only 24,000 would come back CGC 9.4 or higher. Obviously, all 200,000 haven't survived over the last 29 years.

 

You would have to have 83,334 survive at a 12% rate to get 10,000 CGC 9.4. Does anyone think that many copies have survived? Or if that many have survived enough of them are worth submitting to CGC in hopes of getting a CGC 9.4?

 

IMHO there are too many factors at play that go against any huge amount surviving without being damaged such as; printing process at Marvel, packing process at Marvel, shipping to stores, manhandling by stock boys, manhandling by customers, manhandling by cashiers etc... for any huge amount to survive in CGC 9.4 or better condition.

 

I know you are going to say MH2 has a box of 300, Koch has a box of 300, and 32 other people have boxes of 300 raw factory fresh Hulk #181s sitting around that have never been touched by human hands since printing. That's 10,200 comics. How many of them would come back from CGC 9.4 and above? 25%-50%-75%?

 

 

 

 

[MMMarvel-migration]

I think that that number is way too high and IMO, I would call it out at maybe 1/3 TOPs of that number to be from 9.4. If you are talking about NM+/NM/MT I would have an easier time believing you.

 

I figure if I am high in my estimate in one area I am probably low in others like when comics are manhandled by customers and cashiers.

 

How many comics from a box of 300 that went directly from Marvel to dealer to CGC without being touched by human hands would come back CGC 9.4 or higher? I would say at best 50%. I go to comic stores on Wednesdays when they stock their new stuff and I would say over 50% have too many flaws to be considered CGC 9.4.

[dam60]

I think that that number is way too high and IMO, I would call it out at maybe 1/3 TOPs of that number to be from 9.4. If you are talking about NM+/NM/MT I would have an easier time believing you.

 

I figure if I am high in my estimate in one area I am probably low in others like when comics are manhandled by customers and cashiers.

 

How many comics from a box of 300 that went directly from Marvel to dealer to CGC without being touched by human hands would come back CGC 9.4 or higher? I would say at best 50%. I go to comic stores on Wednesdays when they stock their new stuff and I would say over 50% have too many flaws to be considered CGC 9.4.

 

Here we'll have to agree to disagree - I think that the proportion would be far greater than 50%.

 

DAM

[blowout]

You would have to have 83,334 survive at a 12% rate to get 10,000 CGC 9.4. Does anyone think that many copies have survived? Or if that many have survived enough of them are worth submitting to CGC in hopes of getting a CGC 9.4?

 

First appearance of major character, hoarded by dealers and speculators, meticulously looked after by collectors...so YES I do think that many have survived.