Are you sure this game is honest??

[jkrk]

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=2196602717&category=35752

 

Honest as a day is long.

[aardvark88]

I smell a shill or thrill bidders. No sane person will pay over $50k for this "extensively" resto Supe #1.

[AllTop8Me]

Bizarre indeed. As someone noted earlier, this book went on Heritage recently for $18K. http://apps.heritagecomics.com/common/view_item.php?Sale_No=807&Lot_No=5875&src=pr&sid=C93C2D7B693CDCB13D4149267A8B8923. The only thing more unlikely than that it would command $50K on EBay is that the seller would be so greedy at to set a reserve above $50K for a book he just snagged for $18K. The owner - or someone else - may have been testing the market by putting up an impossibly high reserve just to see how much the book commands. But that would cost a few hundred dollars in EBay fees. The $50K may be a shill, but it couldn't have been a thrill bid. Nobody concerned about his feedback would have blithely assumed that an even number like $50K could not possibly be the bright line of a reserve.

[davidking623]

Bizarre indeed. As someone noted earlier, this book went on Heritage recently for $18K. http://apps.heritagecomics.com/common/view_item.php?Sale_No=807&Lot_No=5875&src=pr&sid=C93C2D7B693CDCB13D4149267A8B8923. The only thing more unlikely than that it would command $50K on EBay is that the seller would be so greedy at to set a reserve above $50K for a book he just snagged for $18K. The owner - or someone else - may have been testing the market by putting up an impossibly high reserve just to see how much the book commands. But that would cost a few hundred dollars in EBay fees. The $50K may be a shill, but it couldn't have been a thrill bid. Nobody concerned about his feedback would have blithely assumed that an even number like $50K could not possibly be the bright line of a reserve.

 

This book had a bid of 41000 by comicman kev so I would think it is somewhat legit there!

 

Davidking623

[jkrk]

So you are saying that comicman was bidding 41000 for a book that sold through Heritage for 18000 last month? Sounds like a shrewd buyer to me.

[Mushroom]

Where are you Kev...I would love to read your take on this.

[Adam-migration]

If anyone had managed to pick this book up for $41,000 they would have gotten a really good deal. 25 bids were placed on this auction after the bid of $41,000 was placed and after speaking with many of the bidders the majority of those bids appear to be from people who are truly interested. I also received offers on this book off of eBay as well as several offers after the auction ended from people willing to pay considerably more than this as well.

 

Before I placed this book up for sale on eBay, in an attempt to find out where I should set my reserve, I shopped the book around to several people. I received 5 offers, three of them were for $50,000 or higher. I also received an offer of $45,000 from somebody who I had actually outbid for this book back in July.

 

To say that $18,000 is a fair value for this book is absolutely wrong. If you look back at Heritage's july auction you will see that they were also offering 1 or 2 other Superman #1s, an Action Comics 1, 3 Captain America 1s, as well as I believe a Detective 27, a Marvel 1, and some Batman 1s. There was also a Superman #1 on sale that same week on eBay that later turned out to be a fake. The July auction was also held prior to Heritage instituting their policy of allowing people to pay for their auction wins over a period of 6 months. (Or at the very least prior to listing this policy on their website) This means that this auction was limited to people who had immediate access to $18,000 to spend on comic books. The number of people who have access to that sort of money to begin with is pretty small, but when you then offer them as many high grade and key issues as were offered in the July auction, it just makes sense that their bids would be spread around and people would walk away with fantastic deals.

 

I do not believe that the July Heritage prices in any way reflect fair market value for these books. In the other thread about this auction on these message boards a few people were talking about how an unrestored Superman #1 in VG condition would sell for around 2x guide value. But if you look back in the Heritage July auction you will see a Superman #1 CGC 3.5 unrestored actually sold for $10,000 BELOW its guide value.

 

In yet another thread found on these message boards somebody was talking about how he had recently picked up an Extensively restored Superman 1 in 5.0 condition for what basically ends up amounting to $18,500. Everybody responded to him telling him what a great deal he had made (and I agree by the way)... so why is it that you feel that a CGC-census topping 9.0 VF/NM would be worth less than this 5.0 copy? If you really want to get a feel for what high grade restored books are selling for here are some numbers:

 

According to the 2003 overstreet, a Detective Comics 27 in VF- RESTORED condition sold for $100,000 back in 2002!!! A few weeks ago on eBay a CGC 9.0 Restored copy of Action Comics #1 had bidding reach as high as $135,000!! I'm sorry but to turn around and say a Superman #1 CGC 9.0 in Restored condition is only worth $18,000 just makes no sense to me. (The bidding passed $18,000 on eBay after being up for sale for less than 45 minutes by the way)

 

I've read on this board over and over again if you ever want to determine the fair market value for a book, put it up for sale on eBay with a starting bid of one penny. Thats exactly what I did, and the bidding reached $50,000.

 

P.S. I purposely waited to post any response to any of these messages until after my auction had already ended, because I did not want people to accuse my response of being motivated by an attempt to sell my book.

[rob_react]

I've read on this board over and over again if you ever want to determine the fair market value for a book, put it up for sale on eBay with a starting bid of one penny. Thats exactly what I did, and the bidding reached $50,000.

 

 

You missed one key point to that formula- no reserve.

[aardvark88]

Makes the Church copy of Capt Amer #1 (I believe it was only SLIGHT pro resto) seem like a good buy now at around $80k. Nic Cage collection too. Hard to believe the extensively restored golden age market has surged so much in the last few months.

[Mushroom]

Great post.....your views, supported by real data, are extremely valid.

[Adam-migration]

Rob, actually the last time I saw somebody discussing this in these message boards the exact advice given was: "Post it on Ebay with a high reserve to get an idea of value" (in an AF15 thread in the restoration forum I believe)

 

Besides... YOU list a CGC 9.0 Superman #1 on eBay with no reserve!! (Watch somebody threaten all the other bidders and win it for a penny, )

 

In all honestly, the reason for my reserve was that I had already received several offers before listing the book on eBay, and I wanted to leave those options available if I was not happy with the way the bidding went. Also, there was one potential buyer in particular who I have sold parts of my collection to in the past who I promised I would give the first right of refusal to on this book, which I would not have been able to do if I had not set a reserve.

 

 

Adam

[jkrk]

Does anyone understand what the illusion is about? I believe it was explained perfectly. The seller of the book at the last Heritage auction thought he understood what the book was worth. Everyone else had a fair chance to pay higher and refused. To me the book is worth $18000. Maybe the book was underpriced a few months ago? Maybe it was overpriced? An E-bay auction with a reserve that failed to be met has me convinced of ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. I would give the auction a touch more crredibility if the seller paid E-Bay 3% of the final sales price. I have a very rare FF 19. I was thinking of listing the book on E-Bay and was going to use a few shills who would bid up the book to $20000 or so. Why is it so rare? Because it's missing a panel on Page 17 which somebody cut out. There aren't many around in that condition. Does an auction with credible bidders but an unmet reserve dictate the new price or simply create the illusion? Maybe the book is worth $100,000. Maybe it's worth a million. Maybe it's worth $5000. It's worth what a real buyer will pay. I spend my day talking to many traders and my job is trying to discern BS from fact. When I am wrong it costs me a great deal of money. When I don't understand, I don't play. If anyone wishes to tell me that the auction was perfectly legit, I believe you. Millions wouldn't, but I believe you.

[Bonds25]

I figure the absolute minimum it should be worth is 10% of the 9.0 value (which would be $18,000), and a fair value would be about 30% of 9.0 value (which would be $54,000).

[rob_react]

Rob, actually the last time I saw somebody discussing this in these message boards the exact advice given was: "Post it on Ebay with a high reserve to get an idea of value" (in an AF15 thread in the restoration forum I believe)

 

Besides... YOU list a CGC 9.0 Superman #1 on eBay with no reserve!! (Watch somebody threaten all the other bidders and win it for a penny, )

 

In all honestly, the reason for my reserve was that I had already received several offers before listing the book on eBay, and I wanted to leave those options available if I was not happy with the way the bidding went. Also, there was one potential buyer in particular who I have sold parts of my collection to in the past who I promised I would give the first right of refusal to on this book, which I would not have been able to do if I had not set a reserve.

 

Hi,

 

I don't really believe in that "high reserve" process. High reserves turn some bidders off. Some bidders don't even bother bidding on reserve auctions, especially ones with aggressively high ones. The normal adage around here is that if you want to really determine a book's value, list it for a penny with no reserve. The point is that it's guaranteed to sell, so actual money is eventually involved, which adds the $eriousness that a lot of money can bring to an event.

 

[Adam-migration]

Rob, I agree with what you are saying. As someone who occasionally bids on eBay myself, I have avoided my fair share of reserve auctions. In all honesty, if I did not already have people lined up to buy this book from me off of eBay, I probably would have listed it on eBay with no reserve. (or else once with a reserve and then a second time without one) Actually, I was concerned that my reserve would stop people from bidding, because they might assume the reserve would be too high for bidding to be worth their time. But based on what you are saying, doesn't that mean that if anything a reserve price would actually lower the final price my auction would reach, and that if I had listed my auction without a reserve the final bid price would probably have gone higher? (You don't see many reserve auctions end higher on eBay than identical auctions listed without reserves...)

 

and jkrk, are you honestly comparing the Superman #1 I listed to your incomplete FF19? I'd like to defend myself here.. but well... how? The one thing I will say though is that I did not place any shill bids like you are suggesting. If you take a look at the bidder history, there were no bidders with 0 feedback and a surprisingly low # of bidders with low feedback. The majority of bidders on this auction had a higher feedback rating than me. If I really had more than one account, it wouldn't make much sense for me to list the auction on my account with 129 feedback and place a shill bid using my account that has 800 feedbacks.... And maybe I didn't have to pay the 3% eBay fees but the auction still cost me almost $200 to list

[jkrk]

I will admit that I know less about the comic market than almost anyone on this site. With that said, a shill is not confined by their feedback. The point I was trying to make is that I can use any friends with high feedbacks to bid as long as he knows the reserve and it is not met. It is done all the time. I never indicated that you were bidding but the possibility exists that you knew the bidders. Maybe you weren't involved maybe you were. Everyone can make up their own mind. The hobby is about illusions regarding demand. I will make a prediction. The value of restored books is about to show much higher bids. Call it intuitive but I suspect there is an organized effort to narrrow the spreads. As Sherlock said "the game is afoot".

 

Buyers should simply be aware that "games are sometimes played" with higher priced books. If I had a substantial stake in the hobby I would collude with many other large dealers to mark key books. It only makes sense. I point out to posters not to be naive in believing that a very large dealer who bids for a book necessarily wants the book at the price he bid. Sometimes a phone call is placed to insure the illusion of the books price. A reputable dealer bidding legitamizes the price.

 

I suspect the large number of offerings in the July auction as an excuse for some fantastic deals is bogus. Heritage auctions only about 3 or 4 million per auction.

The dealer community could easily absorb that sum if books are priced that badly. I step in all the time in my business and throw a million a pop at positions I deem mispriced. Money is not much of an object if I understand the game. Unfortunately with comics, transparancy and value is the problem for me. That is the reason I have less than 1/2 % of my assets in the hobby. That's me right or wrong.

 

If you are indeed singing a legit story you need not convince anyone. It's more important that you know the truth. As I've said I know less about the hobby than almost everyone and my views might be completely erroneous.

[rob_react]

Rob, I agree with what you are saying. As someone who occasionally bids on eBay myself, I have avoided my fair share of reserve auctions. In all honesty, if I did not already have people lined up to buy this book from me off of eBay, I probably would have listed it on eBay with no reserve. (or else once with a reserve and then a second time without one) Actually, I was concerned that my reserve would stop people from bidding, because they might assume the reserve would be too high for bidding to be worth their time. But based on what you are saying, doesn't that mean that if anything a reserve price would actually lower the final price my auction would reach, and that if I had listed my auction without a reserve the final bid price would probably have gone higher? (You don't see many reserve auctions end higher on eBay than identical auctions listed without reserves

 

No, I don't think your auction would have ended higher because, as was the case with the Action 1 that Neat Stuff listed but did not sell, there was obviously a lot of thrill bidding going on against an artificially high reserve. That was what the point at the end about real money coming into play was a reference to. If, at the end, someone had to actually pay you money for the book, the results would have been MUCH different.

 

At the beginning I was just pointing out the many reasons why "high reserve" auctions aren't a useful measure of a book's value, in general.

 

 

[AllTop8Me]

The relation of the value of a restored book to an unrestored book is not as simple as a fixed percentage, because the more valuable a book - and Supes 1 is clearly a valuable book - the lower the percentage a restored book should command. The formula works something, roughly, like this. First, you value the book in its pre-restored condition. There's usually no way to know exactly what a restored book's pre-restored condition was, but with Extensive (P) I wouldn't assume that the book started out better than a Good. True, it fixed up to a nice 9.0, but then again few people with strong mid-grades send their books in for heavy duty restoration (the market rightly punishes you for doing that) so while it may have been a VG I wouldn't assume it was much beyond a Good. For all you know, it could have been a Fair. Then there are a few more numbers you need to throw into the pot. One is the cost of restoration. Extensive (P) may run you $500 to $1,500, depending on the work and the shop. Then, you have to add the premium people will pay to have the restoration job done for them. There' s a hassle factor involved in sending books to restorers and waiting months for them to return and, more importantly, with a restored book you know how it will look post-restoration whereas with an unrestored one you can never be positive how it will turn out. It's hard to quantify what this is worth, but it would, in theory, add to the value. Then you subtract an amount that reflects the fact that there are a lot of restorophobes out there, and that while when selling an unrestored Good you can tap into both the market for unrestored books as well as the market of people who like pretty books and don't mind sending Goods in for restoration, once the work is done you've locked out the restorophobes as potential customers. And I gotta tell you, among the five-figures-for-a-ten-cent comic crowd, ther are a lot of restorophobes. True, Extensive (P) can in theory be undone, but I don't know many purists who bid serious money on restored books in order to spend more money to unrestore them. Considering how many such purists there are, the limitation of your market by undertaking restoration can more than offset the "value" added by already doing the restoration for your customers.

 

There are, of course, exceptions to this rule. Most exceptions are "cover" books, i.e. books that derive their value from having a celebrated, beautiful cover. The market for such books is dominated by people who are attracted to a book's aesthetic appeal, and like art connoisseurs they are generally far more forgiving of restoration. Conversely, they are turned off by books that don't present nicely, even if they sport a blue label. The second catagory of exceptions includes the limited number of books that qualify as true Americana. Supes 1 is certainly such a book. That book has a wide appeal in the general culture, and may well benefit from the attitude that prevails in most areas of antique collecting, which is that restoration and conservation are not as bad as SARS. If Adam is right, and the $50K bids are legit, I'd interpret this to mean that the people who were bidding on Heritage are comic book insiders, playing by the comic book market's draconian rules regarding restoration, while people bidding on EBay reflect America more generally, i.e. they aware neither of the full magnitude of the evil that is restoration, nor do they know that on Metropolis's website a CGC 8.0 with Moderate (P) is now on sale at $27.5K, marked down, no doubt because the comic book community thought it overpriced at $29K.

[garthgantu]

Also, there was one potential buyer in particular who I have sold parts of my collection to in the past who I promised I would give the first right of refusal to on this book, which I would not have been able to do if I had not set a reserve.

Adam

 

Okay...explain the above statement to me - I'm a little slow. How were you going to provide the 'first right of refusal' (sic) to a potential buyer, if the reserve had been met...? How does setting a reserve enable you to give another potential buyer the last opportunity to buy the book?

[CosmicBob]

In yet another thread found on these message boards somebody was talking about how he had recently picked up an Extensively restored Superman 1 in 5.0 condition for what basically ends up amounting to $18,500. Everybody responded to him telling him what a great deal he had made (and I agree by the way)... so why is it that you feel that a CGC-census topping 9.0 VF/NM would be worth less than this 5.0 copy?

 

That was me. And I feel I overpaid a bit for it, but I'm not complaining because I want the book for my personal collection. If I had bothered to look at the July Heritage auction I might have gone 18K for the 9.0. But I didn't even bother looking because I wasn't planning on buying one then (or when I got mine). And I wouldn't have expected it to go that low either. So I thought you got a good deal on it.

 

My thoughts on the reserve on this auction were that if the book only sold for 18K in July, why would it go for substantially more a couple of months later? It seemed a bit unreasonable to me. I would have thought that the market in July would have been pretty close to the market today. But your point about the glut of Supes #1s in July is valid. If you got more than 50K for it, good for you! A nice profit!