How much money have you spent on CGC's slabbing service?

[sterlingcomics]

The census means nothing at this time.

 

I understand the census isn't indictive of the number of high grade copies in existence (No need to spend $15 or more to slab a book that only markets at $4.00). However the census does provide me with relative information that does impact the overall potential purchase price of the slab...errr book.

[PedigreeMan]

The census means nothing at this time.

 

I understand the census isn't indictive of the number of high grade copies in existence (No need to spend $15 or more to slab a book that only markets at $4.00). However the census does provide me with relative information that does impact the overall potential purchase price of the slab...errr book.

 

Your statements above seem contradictory. On the one hand you acknowledge that the census does not reflect an accurate percentage of surviving high grade books, yet then go on to state it provides "relative information" about them. What is this relative information and how does it ultimately impact sale prices?

 

Alan

[sterlingcomics]

Your statements above seem contradictory. On the one hand you acknowledge that the census does not reflect an accurate percentage of surviving high grade books, yet then go on to state it provides "relative information" about them. What is this relative information and how does it ultimately impact sale prices?

 

My only point is that I've seen CGC prices go up higher if a book is known as the "highest" in the census. As such the census information can tell a potential buyer this information. Whether it is correct, sane, logical, etc. is beyond my understanding--I just know it sometimes happens.

[fantastic_four]

Whether it is correct, sane, logical, etc. is beyond my understanding--I just know it sometimes happens.

 

It's insane. It's like predicting who's going to win a marathon--and by how much--based upon the positions of the racers after the first five miles. Maybe they're right, maybe they're not; who knows, too early to say.

[Aman619]

I agree that the census is a scattershot guess at this moment as to the exact total of books in any grade in existence. It only reflects the comics that have already been sent in (duh!) which is affected by many things, not least of which is those titles and books that have been hot these last few years. That list includes the movie-hyped characters especially. ..and key books since they are worth the most.

 

But, even at this early date you can STILL look at the numbers and make educated guesses as to what it reveals about scarcity in HG. And extrapolate from the data which book sjust arent out there in high quantitles...And which ARE!! ...especiallly of the Silver Age Marvels..

[MMMarvel-migration]

I disagree. I think most High Grade Golden, Silver, Bronze, and even Ultra-High grade moderns from the 1980s have been graded by CGC already.

 

For the record, during the forum dinner at the Chicago Con this past August Steve Borock himself was shaking his head at statements like the above. I don't recall the exact quote, but it was something along the lines of, "Only a fraction of books out there have been slabbed." Dan "Flying Donut" C., who is a dealer, wholeheartedly agreed. In fact, their nodding heads almost made me dizzy!

 

I mean, heck, just walk around any big convention! It's like 99.5% raw books!

 

The census means nothing at this time.

 

Alan

 

For the record I am shaking my head reading your statements above. So let me get this straight. You are telling me at big conventions 99.5% of the raw books are in High Grade (9.0-9.2+ for Golden, 9.4-9.6+ for silver & Bronze, 9.8-9.9+ for key modern 1980 comics)? I find that very hard to believe. When I go to just about any comic store in the NYC area they usually don't have too many bronze, silver, and golden age comics for sell. If they do have them they are in medium to low grade condition and at best Very Fine. I stand by my statement above. If what you say is true I would see tons of High Grade comics for sell at local comic shops.

[Aman619]

reda it adain before he gets back...he never said HIGH GRADE...just raw. Menaing, to me, that theres potentially a lot of business left for CGC out there.

[MMMarvel-migration]

The post of mine that he was responding to was specifically talking about High Grade. There MIGHT very well be a medium to low grade CGC market in the future (if CGC survives) because most of the High Grade stuff is already graded and that is all that would be left to grade. I would say a majority of Golden and Key Silver age (i.e. Amazing Fantasy #15) medium and low grade comics (that have any value) have already been slabbed because of their rarity. On the other hand I just bought Good condition reading copies of FF Vol. 1 #s 52, 53, ASM #135, and Amazing Adventure's #11 which I am not about to pay $25+ a piece to have slabbed because it makes absolutely no sense to do so.

[PedigreeMan]

The post of mine that he was responding to was specifically talking about High Grade.

 

Apologies for getting off track in my example.

 

 

So let me get this straight. You are telling me at big conventions 99.5% of the raw books are in High Grade?

 

Of course not. Aman read it correctly in that slabbed books make up only a fraction of those for sale at conventions. As to what condition the raw books are in, however, I will offer the following observations:

 

 

9.8-9.9+ for key modern 1980 comics

 

Of the .5% slabbed books, I would say these make up less than 1%. With regard to raw, though, who knows what's lurking in those hundreds of long boxes? Will most books from this time period grade less than 9.8? Sure. But if only a small percentage grade higher, I would strongly argue that these numbers will be greater than the number of slabbed that fall into this category.

 

Also, who in the world knows what's hiding in private collections? I would wager that everyone who bought any substantial number of books new in the '80s and are still holding onto them have a few 9.8+ books collecting dust.

 

Again, for these, it's a sheer numbers game. Plain and simple.

 

 

9.4-9.6+ for silver & Bronze

 

Here, the numbers start to work a bit more in your favor, especially for low-print run (for the times) books like GL #76 and HoS #92. Also, early Silver Age like Showcase #4 and (maybe) even FF #1 are probably a bit scarcer in high grade to begin with, thus the ratio of slabbed to raw skewing a bit higher and proving the census "correct."

 

However, I can attest to the fact that at the past Chicago Comicon I saw at least a ratio of 3:1 raw versus slabbed copies of the ubiquitious Hulk #181 and GS X-Men #1. Now, did I examine each one for minty freshness? Of course not. But it is quite telling to see two of the most hyped books for CGC candidacy being represented in much greater raw numbers than slabbed.

 

As for what's present from these ages in personal collections? I would argue more than anyone has ever given credence to. What current collectors tend to forget is that fandom was well on its way by the 1960s; and that the number of people keeping and, more importantly, taking care of their comic books was supremely greater than anyone here can imagine. This is the prime reason why I don't like Silver Age pedigrees -- collecting comic books was not unique during this time! There is absolutely no way to determine how many original owner collections from this period have been distributed over the past 20 years into the "sit-and-hold" collections of "advanced" collectors. Remember, Silver Age has been fairly hot since the 1980s. That's a ton of years for potential sales in comparison to 3 years of CGC sales.

 

 

9.0-9.2+ for Golden

 

(Allow me to skew away from my convention example here.)

 

As someone pointed out previously, what percentage of GA pedigrees have been slabbed? Ten percent? That in and of itself leaves a ton of raw high grade books. Then, what percentage of the high grade GA market is comprised of pedigrees? When I started collecting GA material I would have said a good percentage, based solely on ignorance. However, in talking with other dealers and collectors, my opinion has been reversed. Ask Chris Foss about the guy in his 40s who lives with his mother and has over three dozen boxes of high grade gold. Heck, ask anyone here about John Verzyl or Steve Geppi or "The Virginia Dentist" and they'll tell you about stacks of high grade gold, with only some of it being pedigree material. Or check out Timely's thread in the Golden Age section and see how many high grade Timelys (one of the hardest to find GA publishers) he has that aren't pedigrees. Sure, some of these are slabbed, but those numbers are far less than what these handful of individuals have raw.

 

In other words, if only a fraction of Golden Age material from pedigrees has been slabbed, and pedigrees make up only a fraction of the GA market, how many raw GA books are still floating around out there?

 

All in all, the comic book market is so much larger than anyone wants to admit. It has been around for decades and over that time has comprised all walks of life. Everyone from the casual reader to the pure investor to the obsessive collector have had their feet dipped into the pool. As such, the number of books still around -- from BTH readers to yes, High Grade Keys -- are so great, that slabbing a quarter million of them represents only a drop in the bucket. Resultantly, I reiterate my claim that the census is meaningless.

 

 

Alan

[MMMarvel-migration]

The post of mine that he was responding to was specifically talking about High Grade.

 

Apologies for getting off track in my example.

 

 

So let me get this straight. You are telling me at big conventions 99.5% of the raw books are in High Grade?

 

Of course not.

 

That is my whole point. Most of the existing stuff out there that hasn't been slabbed because there isn't any demand to slab medium and low grade comics yet and there might not ever be a demand.

 

 

Aman read it correctly in that slabbed books make up only a fraction of those for sale at conventions.

 

Probably because the majority of the 99.5% of raw comics at these conventions are in medium to low grade (VF to Poor) or are obscure comics that aren't worth slabbing IMHO.

 

As to what condition the raw books are in, however, I will offer the following observations:

 

 

9.8-9.9+ for key modern 1980 comics

 

Of the .5% slabbed books, I would say these make up less than 1%. With regard to raw, though, who knows what's lurking in those hundreds of long boxes? Will most books from this time period grade less than 9.8? Sure. But if only a small percentage grade higher, I would strongly argue that these numbers will be greater than the number of slabbed that fall into this category.

 

Also, who in the world knows what's hiding in private collections? I would wager that everyone who bought any substantial number of books new in the '80s and are still holding onto them have a few 9.8+ books collecting dust.

 

Again, for these, it's a sheer numbers game. Plain and simple.

 

Makes since that only .5% of comics from this age aren't slabbed because MOST aren't worth the CGC cost to slab. I don't know what the census is on X-men #266, Amazing Spider-man #238, and New Mutants #87, but I am confident there isn't hundreds of them in 9.8-9.9+ condition. Could there be thousands of raw copies in 9.4 condition? I wouldn't be surprised, but I would be if they are 9.8s or better.

 

9.4-9.6+ for silver & Bronze

 

Here, the numbers start to work a bit more in your favor, especially for low-print run (for the times) books like GL #76 and HoS #92. Also, early Silver Age like Showcase #4 and (maybe) even FF #1 are probably a bit scarcer in high grade to begin with, thus the ratio of slabbed to raw skewing a bit higher and proving the census "correct."

 

However, I can attest to the fact that at the past Chicago Comicon I saw at least a ratio of 3:1 raw versus slabbed copies of the ubiquitious Hulk #181 and GS X-Men #1. Now, did I examine each one for minty freshness? Of course not. But it is quite telling to see two of the most hyped books for CGC candidacy being represented in much greater raw numbers than slabbed.

 

Unless a comic dealer is a complete insufficiently_thoughtful_person and doesn't know how to grade he isn't going to be selling a HG raw Hulk #181s at a comic con that he thinks he has a good chance of getting CGC'd at 9.4 or above (which could be worth thousands if not 10s of thousands). Maybe they are trying to sell raw VF+ to VF/NM raw copies to amatuer comic buyers as possible CGC 9.4s or above. I know I wouldn't take a HG Hulk #181 to a comic con to be manhandled and de-valued. That would be stupid.

 

As for what's present from these ages in personal collections? I would argue more than anyone has ever given credence to. What current collectors tend to forget is that fandom was well on its way by the 1960s; and that the number of people keeping and, more importantly, taking care of their comic books was supremely greater than anyone here can imagine. This is the prime reason why I don't like Silver Age pedigrees -- collecting comic books was not unique during this time! There is absolutely no way to determine how many original owner collections from this period have been distributed over the past 20 years into the "sit-and-hold" collections of "advanced" collectors. Remember, Silver Age has been fairly hot since the 1980s. That's a ton of years for potential sales in comparison to 3 years of CGC sales.

 

I don't believe there are these 1,000s of "advanced" collectors sitting on stacks of 9.4-9.6+ raw copies of Spider-man, X-men, Fantastic Four etc... comics. Doesn't pass the BS test. If a person had 50 copies of Spider-man #50 in 9.4-9.6+ I would think they would get at least 10 or so of their best specimens slabbed over a period of time just to see what they have even if they never intend to sell. Even a rich advanced collector who doesn't want to sell would want to know if he has the best copy in existance.

 

 

9.0-9.2+ for Golden

 

(Allow me to skew away from my convention example here.)

 

As someone pointed out previously, what percentage of GA pedigrees have been slabbed? Ten percent? That in and of itself leaves a ton of raw high grade books. Then, what percentage of the high grade GA market is comprised of pedigrees? When I started collecting GA material I would have said a good percentage, based solely on ignorance. However, in talking with other dealers and collectors, my opinion has been reversed. Ask Chris Foss about the guy in his 40s who lives with his mother and has over three dozen boxes of high grade gold. Heck, ask anyone here about John Verzyl or Steve Geppi or "The Virginia Dentist" and they'll tell you about stacks of high grade gold, with only some of it being pedigree material. Or check out Timely's thread in the Golden Age section and see how many high grade Timelys (one of the hardest to find GA publishers) he has that aren't pedigrees. Sure, some of these are slabbed, but those numbers are far less than what these handful of individuals have raw.

 

In other words, if only a fraction of Golden Age material from pedigrees has been slabbed, and pedigrees make up only a fraction of the GA market, how many raw GA books are still floating around out there?

 

All in all, the comic book market is so much larger than anyone wants to admit. It has been around for decades and over that time has comprised all walks of life. Everyone from the casual reader to the pure investor to the obsessive collector have had their feet dipped into the pool. As such, the number of books still around -- from BTH readers to yes, High Grade Keys -- are so great, that slabbing a quarter million of them represents only a drop in the bucket. Resultantly, I reiterate my claim that the census is meaningless.

 

 

Alan

 

I honestly don't know [!@#%^&^] about Golden Age comics except they are old and for the most part rare. Myths about stacks of High Grade raw copies by famous comic gurus are just that, "myths", until proven. If these people never intend to sell, it really doesn't matter if in fact they do exist because they will never be on the market. Even if they were on the market the prices of HG Golden age comics would be out of the reach for 99% of the comic collecting public. I won't loose any sleep over not being able to get that copy of Action #1 in CGC 9.4 that I always wanted.

[PedigreeMan]

Unfortunately, this appears to be something we'll just have to agree to disagree about. Only time will tell if the census as it stands is any good.

 

Alan

[Aman619]

I thnk an argument can be made that the census will swell, but that thereis enought data alreday to suggest what teh final breakout by grade will be. Thats is, we cant say for sure if all the figures haev to be tripled (or more or less) from todays numbers....but we see the outlines of the overall shape of whats out there.

 

I know there are plenty more collectors like me who have been amassing HG comics for 10 years and longer who have yet to slab a book. But 1000s of collections? might be a bit high. But look at the census, Im sure you can DOUBLE the Spider-man numbers easily up through #100.

 

Nobody should kid themselves that "rich collectors " have slabbed their best books to see if they have the best copy. Or to compete in the Registry. If they are not for sale....they are not getting graded. period. Right?

[PedigreeMan]

Nobody should kid themselves that "rich collectors " have slabbed their best books to see if they have the best copy. Or to compete in the Registry. If they are not for sale....they are not getting graded. period. Right?

 

 

Also, as a question for MMMarvel, I'm curious as to why he thinks four years of slabbing is the magic number for the exhaustion of most high grade material? What's so special about this time frame?

 

Alan

[MMMarvel-migration]

Nobody should kid themselves that "rich collectors " have slabbed their best books to see if they have the best copy. Or to compete in the Registry. If they are not for sale....they are not getting graded. period. Right?

 

 

And if they are not for sell and aren't getting graded that effects the rest of us how? They might as well not exist.

 

Also, as a question for MMMarvel, I'm curious as to why he thinks four years of slabbing is the magic number for the exhaustion of most high grade material? What's so special about this time frame?

 

Alan

 

As I have already stated, I don't see too many HG Golden, Silver, Bronze, and 1980 moderns for sell in any comic book store I visit in the NYC area. If there were mass quantities as you believe I would think there would be some in all the stores in this area. The only stuff I see for sell are medium to low grade if there are any for sell at all. Please let me know what comic book store should I visit to find the mountains of HG stuff for sell? How about ebay? Shouldn't I be able to find tons of HG raw comics from all the eras I have mentioned? If raw HG issues are so plentiful why are people from these boards bidding crazy amounts for this guys stuff web page ? Doesn't support your case, does it?

[OldSchoolTerry]

Just to throw my .02 in here, I don't see much HG stuff at all at the few LCS I go to.

[MMMarvel-migration]

Just to throw my .02 in here, I don't see much HG stuff at all at the few LCS I go to.

 

Exactly my point. Hell, anytime there is a large group of raw HG stuff for sell on Ebay or Heritage it is like a BSD testosterone feeding frenzy in the Marketplace boards. The fact is that IF there are uddles of HG stuff out there people wouldn't be going crazy with their wallets anytime some come up for auction. The facts just don't support peoples theories about mass quantities of HG Golden, Silver, Bronze, and 1980 modern keys out there. If there were, the activity and the amounts paid for such raw HG comics on ebay would reflect it and so would the CGC census.

[shadroch]

MMMarvel,

Just because you don't see the stuff for sale,doesn't mean it doesn't exist. I have at least 500 HG Silver age books and I as never a condition freak.Of my some 2500 SA books,a good third are in the 8.5-9.0 range with about a dozen easily going 9.4 or better. I strongly suspect there are hundreds or more of collections like mine out there.I have several former clients with better collections

The Robert Bell and MH2 collections were sold mostly to collectors and have most likely been preserved in their original HG conditions,yet their sheer numbers don't show up in the census that much.

If these collections eeak their way out three or four a year,at the end of a decade you will see a huge increase in the census.

I would suggest you go look at coin censuses. Slabbed cons have been around much longer than slabbed comics yet the census continues to grow. If you believe half of the Spidey 1s in HG, have been slabbed,we disagree.

[joe_collector]

And if they are not for sell and aren't getting graded that effects the rest of us how? They might as well not exist.

 

Sure, if you plan on dying tomorrow.

 

If not, then at some point in the future, those comics will come to market and will likely affect us all.

[joe_collector]

The fact is that IF there are uddles of HG stuff out there people wouldn't be going crazy with their wallets anytime some come up for auction.

 

Yes, just as they didn't in the Coin and Sportscard markets.

 

Human beings are inherently stupid and conformist, so when something is perceived as hot, they run for with wallets open.

[PedigreeMan]

And if they are not for sell and aren't getting graded that effects the rest of us how? They might as well not exist.

 

This appears to be the fundamental difference in our opinions. You choose to ignore the millions of books -- a number of them in high grade -- currently locked away in collections. Let me repeat that last part: Currently locked away in collections. There is absolutely no telling what will comprise the future back issue market.

 

Maybe I'm just too patient.

 

Alan