Do today's high key comic price increases have a historical equivalent?

[MR.COMICBOOK]

yep I screwed up.

[joe_collector]

yep I screwed up.

 

No worries, I just wanted to get the real numbers out there so the full effect was present.

 

94 new comics in 1976 vs. 6 today. Shocking.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Does anyone recall a time similar to this

 

Yes. (thumbs u

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulipmania

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_sea_bubble

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_estate_bubble

 

I don't see a lot of similarity between key comics and most of these bubbles with the fundamental difference being supply. Tulips, trade opportunities in the New World, viable Internet-based companies, and real estate are all in huge supply in comparison to the remaining copies of comic book keys.

 

However, I get your general point--you think we're in a bubble. All of the Gold, Silver, and Bronze keys have gone up sharply over a short time period in the past, yet they never experienced any sharp price decreases exhibited by the bubbles you linked to. The Tulip, South Sea, and dot-com bubbles saw goods experience a near-total loss in value; we just haven't seen that with key comics throughout their entire history. Real estate is more similar in that it just deflated slightly instead of losing all value, yet comics have never seen that level of deflation, I suspect again, due to their limited and shrinking supply. What makes you think the sharp increases on keys from the last 2-3 years will result in deflation when that hasn't happened during any of the previous sharp increases from the last 50 years of the comics market?

 

I'm also not clear on when the bubble you see begins and ends. I believe there has been a clear increase since 2007 that we did not see from 2001 to 2006. I recall you describing the CGC-and-ebay-inspired increases we were seeing from after 2000-2001 as a bubble. However, the pop on that one hasn't come yet. So I'm guessing you just see the entire post-CGC time period as one big bubble that's due to pop? Any ideas on why there's been a bubble within that larger bubble on keys since 2007?

 

I have a really hard time seeing CGC's introduction as the start of a rather lengthy bubble that just hasn't run its course yet. I'm just about dead certain people were saying the same thing after the increases following Overstreet's introduction of pricing back in the early 1970s, yet that bubble never popped. CGC has introduced a similar level value via market stability and confidence that Overstreet added. What reason is there to believe that CGC's contribution to the market will have a more disastrous effect than Overstreet's did, particularly when we acknowledge that the Internet's impact on the comics market and its synergy with making CGC-graded books so much easier to sell via the Internet really was a huge part of the increase we saw when CGC started up?

 

I would suggest that we saw the "peak" in the comic market about 18-24 months ago. Sure there have been a lot of record prices paid since then, but few people mention how many books in that period have also sold for multi-year GPA lows.

 

Since I buy everything from Gold to Copper, I think I have a generally good sense of the marketplace, at least the online venues. I think we still have a couple more years of general weakness and softening overall prices ahead of us...until the unemployment numbers stabilize and start moving lower, there will be collectors out there that are forced to sell AND will cease to be active buyers.

 

Whats important to mention here though is that the decline has been orderly, and that the market has held up well despite the deluge of supply that was unleashed upon it through the various auction outlets. There was a period between Feb-June where it felt like there was a major auction with unbelievable stuff practically every week. Now the Heritage Signature auction is a lot lighter than last time, and the current Comiclink auction appears equally anemic in the quality of its offerings. So the market has held up suprisingly well, despite the fact that personal credit has slowly dried up and that people are supposedly making wiser decisions with their money.

 

[Aman619]

wiser than buying comics?????

[MR.COMICBOOK]

yep I screwed up.

 

No worries, I just wanted to get the real numbers out there so the full effect was present.

 

94 new comics in 1976 vs. 6 today. Shocking.

Yep I got those same numbers without my now not so amazing Iphone calculator but with the good old fashion pencil and paper way. It is shocking , oh wonder people were much more knowledgable about comics then and felt a certain kinship with Marvel/DC.

Now it feels like I get ripped off when I buy a couple of modern comics!

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

wiser than buying comics?????

 

I've financed my entire collection, as considerable as it has become, by buying and selling comics. So, if you know what you're doing, buying comics can be a wise financial move.

 

Would I advocate doing it in lieu of all other financial options out there? (investing in stocks, real estate, bonds, commodities, or just socking some money away in savings for a rainy day)

 

No, absolutely not.

[fantastic_four]

My current hypothesis is that ALL of the titles increasing similarly over such a short period is generally a bad indicator--that something outside of the hobby is causing it.

Imho we're just witnessing a self-contained fanboy wetdream come to life. That's all.

 

It's the same phenomenon that produces Virgin Mary grilled cheese sandwiches. By that I mean someone throwing stupid money can create 10 minutes worth of short-lived buzz and attention, gets others fantasizing.

 

Comics just has plenty of Virgin Mary grilled cheese sandwiches to "discover" and have the BIG MONEY fantasy play itself out. And each time it stimulates more submissions, more consignments, and more profits. But at the end of the day collectors still have to decide for themselves if its another grilled cheese sandwhich or some extreme-value "part of pop culture".

 

When Amazing Fantasy 15 in CGC 9.4 sold for $150K in 2007 on ComicLink, and then another 9.4 sold for around $200K shortly thereafter, I was thinking this exact same thing, that that one AF15 sale caused a trend. However, I stopped thinking this after noticing that the sharp increases were occurring across all the mega-keys. I really don't think AF15 CGC 9.4 selling for 50% to 100% more than what it had a year or two earlier directly caused people to pay similar increases for both low and high grade copies of all keys across the board.

[fantastic_four]

I would suggest that we saw the "peak" in the comic market about 18-24 months ago. Sure there have been a lot of record prices paid since then, but few people mention how many books in that period have also sold for multi-year GPA lows.

 

Sounds reasonable. Any reflections as to what caused that peak? All of the mega-keys, and most of the minor keys, seem to have experienced a bump in 2007-2008 that hasn't significantly deflated. I do sense that the peak has passed as you're suggesting and that we're in a flat period where if you plunk down let's say 16K for a Fine copy of Amazing Fantasy 15, you won't see much change in that price for at least 2-4 years. If that's true, then it's better to pass on keys for now than buy them.

 

You mention frequent GPA lows these days--have you been seeing these on key books, or just random non-key issues of popular titles?

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

 

You mention frequent GPA lows these days--have you been seeing these on key books, or just random non-key issues of popular titles?

 

Keys are, and have always have been more resilient. But if the old adage "a rising tide lifts all ships" is true in good times, so is its opposite, particularily as it applies to non key SA & BA books.

 

Honestly, it only makes sense...the common, non-key stuff is the first to suffer in a downturn. The Golden Age market has been experiencing this for years as 2nd and 3rd tier stuff have been steadily dropping in value as the number of collectors shrinks, and those that remain focus on the "quality" books.

 

 

 

 

 

[Hedge Collector]

More than a few are stating that money might be coming into these books since the stock market has been going down.

 

Well, the stock market has now rallied more than 50%. Granted is was short amount of time, record time in fact of 4 months.

 

There should be at least some correlation to be cited, no, if you believe this theory.

[joe_collector]

Most people are like moths, they gravitate towards the areas that have the most "heat/light" on them.

 

When the stock/housing/etc. markets tank, people run and toss their money into whatever else is on fire, then when X market heats up again, those same suckers plunk down multiples of what it sold for even a few months ago. The vast majority of people want to be where the action is, and rarely take the opportunity to buy in low.

 

That's why comics were dead on the mid to late-90's and why we suddenly have a resurgence on those SAME books today - comics are hot again, and they weren't then.

[fantastic_four]

More than a few are stating that money might be coming into these books since the stock market has been going down.

 

Well, the stock market has now rallied more than 50%. Granted is was short amount of time, record time in fact of 4 months.

 

There should be at least some correlation to be cited, no, if you believe this theory.

 

Despite some better times lately, is there any widespread optimism this is a lasting recovery? I have yet to see signs of it--interest rates are still hovering around rock-bottom, unemployment isn't falling (but isn't rising as fast for now), job listings are still scarce (in my area anyway). Forecasts of another year or two of economic rain abound. If the trumpet of bad times setting in did indeed lead to a bit more money being pumped into the safest comic bets, I'd expect no less than a trumpet of good times being back as the most likely time to look for any corresponding divestment or comparative lack of interest in newly-listed books. I don't think I can hear the trumpet sounding yet...

[fantastic_four]

That's why comics were dead on the mid to late-90's and why we suddenly have a resurgence on those SAME books today - comics are hot again, and they weren't then.

 

I know the overall market was down following holo-foil madness and the newsstand price increases that went with it, but I've been wondering if the keys were really dead in the mid-to-late-90s. I don't know, I was in college and out of comics, getting a job, getting women, and getting a house for that entire period.

[joe_collector]

I don't know, I was in college and out of comics, getting a job, getting women, and getting a house for that entire period.

 

I hear that all the time, and amazingly, I was doing the EXACT same thing - yet I was still active buying BA books throughout. Because comics were cold, there are a lot less of us, and finding books at firesale price levels was a LOT easier.

 

It's the "heat" thing at work, and I bet there are tons of next-generation forum members right now, who are actively collecting comics during their college/first job/home phase of their lives. Comics are hot now and people choose to stay near the heat.

[Bronty]

That's why comics were dead on the mid to late-90's and why we suddenly have a resurgence on those SAME books today - comics are hot again, and they weren't then.

 

I know the overall market was down following holo-foil madness and the newsstand price increases that went with it, but I've been wondering if the keys were really dead in the mid-to-late-90s. I don't know, I was in college and out of comics, getting a job, getting women, and getting a house for that entire period.

 

quality sells even in a down market. There weren't any AF15 or FF1 fire sales in that period. My recollection is that prices were stagnant but more or less held on big SA keys in typical grades. weaker minor keys, later issues, bronze, mid run issues... those you could get deals on, but the more blue chip the book the less likely it was ever going to be firesold, down market or not. Which is just common sense really.

[Bronty]

 

When the stock/housing/etc. markets tank, people run and toss their money into whatever else is on fire, then when X market heats up again, those same suckers plunk down multiples of what it sold for even a few months ago. The vast majority of people want to be where the action is, and rarely take the opportunity to buy in low.

.

 

That is so true. So many people end up buying high and selling low and wasting a good chunk of their life savings doing it. They don't have the nerves when the chips are down and get too greedy and don't sell when the chips are up

[joe_collector]

I should also state that I'm only referring to vintage comics, and not off-the-shelf Moderns - I stopped buy new comics in 1992, and that was only the core Marvel books.

 

But that had no impact on my back issue purchases during the 90's and I still hit flea markets, local shows, and even though I despised that juvenile "bad girl" phase with a passion, I even hit stores when they had big discounts/out of business sales, etc.

[Bronty]

More than a few are stating that money might be coming into these books since the stock market has been going down.

 

Well, the stock market has now rallied more than 50%. Granted is was short amount of time, record time in fact of 4 months.

 

There should be at least some correlation to be cited, no, if you believe this theory.

 

Despite some better times lately, is there any widespread optimism this is a lasting recovery? I have yet to see signs of it

 

I agree... seems like a questionable recovery fuelled by greed and not much else.

[Bronty]

I should also state that I'm only referring to vintage comics, and not off-the-shelf Moderns - I stopped buy new comics in 1992, and that was only the core Marvel books.

 

But that had no impact on my back issue purchases during the 90's and I still hit flea markets, local shows, and even though I despised that juvenile "bad girl" phase with a passion

 

you mean like the lady death leather covers and ? amen.

[joe_collector]

Yeah, that made going into a comic store in the mid to late-90's a real chore, as not only was collector interest at an all-time low, but virtually all you saw in the LCS was poster after poster of these balloon-chested women. Gratuitous would be an understatement.

 

And don't even get me into the clientèle for these books.