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If the "Great Crash" happens tomorrow what will you be doing?

Started by Marvelous,

What will you be doing when the   

153 members have voted

  1. 1. What will you be doing when the

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48 posts in this topic

Dr_Neff

Dr_Neff

Posted
Posted

The crash numbers are funny, Like I got into comics because i was no good with NUMBERS smile.gif and too young for Uncle Hef. When I learned math in college i became a MAD GOD and pilfered all my starving addict friends' collections - oh yeah for stuff liked to read and then OOOOPS crash = no big deal I am tired of this crash talk. Shut up and DRIVE

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Marvelous

Marvelous

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A majority of 50-57% will still be buying.

 

You think that only 57% of people who are buying now, will still be buying doesn't constitute a crash?

 

I think 57% is probably about the usual number of people on this board that are buying now with no crash. I am not buying now, but if the crash occured tomorrow and people are selling their collections at huge discounts I would be buying. The fact that 57% of people say they would buy after a crash tells me the crash wouldn't last too long.

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joe_collector

joe_collector

Posted
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You know Marvelous, your big problem is that you're under the misconception that Gold, Silver and Bronze CGC books are immune to any serious price reductions.

 

If you knew anything about the history of comic collecting, you'd understand that a market crash has nothing to do with age and everything to do with "where the heat is". Speculators follow the heat, raise values far above reality, and then when they leave.... tonofbricks.gif

 

On the other hand, the opportunities exist where no one is buying, and books that are considered "cold" and may change to "hot" in the future. Never follow the crowd, or trust past performance to continue for decades to come.

 

To help illustrate this, in 1987, Fish Police #1 (and tons of other independents and newer Marvel/DC "hot" books) was more valuable than Fantastic Four 48 and Amazing Spider-man 50 put together.

 

Think about that. 893scratchchin-thumb.gif

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nik

nik

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Posted

 

To help illustrate this, in 1987, Fish Police #1 (and tons of other independents and newer Marvel/DC "hot" books) was more valuable than Fantastic Four 48 and Amazing Spider-man 50 put together.

 

Think about that. 893scratchchin-thumb.gif

 

I just had that book slabbed shocked.gif, I liked the cover!

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Marvelous

Marvelous

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GA, SA, and BA might not be completely immune to price reductions, but they have been very stable over the years and have continued to increase in value. Therefore, it is extremely unlikely any crash could seriously effect their value. In comparison, New modern age comics are EXTREMELY volatile because of all the hype with hot writers, hot artists etc... I don't see how your analogy of an over hyped "new" book versus key silver age books fall into this debate. That has been going on forever and it is going on now with DCs Retailer Reprints. What did that Batman RRP go for, something like $3,000 right? That is more than most SA and GA comics. I suggest not buying over hyped modern books.

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joe_collector

joe_collector

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As usual, the point whiizzed right over your head like a 747.

 

It's NOT about new vs. old, but hot vs. cold. And you can take that to the bank.

 

You buy the hottest, most speculator-influenced, price-inflated Golden Age book at the wrong time, and you'll take a bigger bath than with a case of RRP editions.

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Marvelous

Marvelous

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As usual you are oblivious.

 

There are some exceptions to the rule, but most HG GA, SA, BA, and even key 80s moderns are NOT volatile. They steadily increase in value over the years. You don't have anywhere near the hot/cold extremes in old books as you do new ones. If someone is foolish enough to buy a ASM #14 during the run up to the Spidey movie then they deserve to take a bath (I am guilty of this btw foreheadslap.gif). Other than in cases like movie hype most old books don't spike and drop.

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delekkerste

delekkerste

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There are some exceptions to the rule, but most HG GA, SA, BA, and even key 80s moderns are NOT volatile. They steadily increase in value over the years. You don't have anywhere near the hot/cold extremes in old books as you do new ones.

 

Thank you for telling me what a monkey holding a 1984 OSPG and 2004 OSPG could tell me. Hindsight is 20/20. Now give me your educated opinion, without relying exclusively on looking in the rear-view mirror, on what's going to happen in the next 20 years. 893scratchchin-thumb.gif

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Marvelous

Marvelous

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There are some exceptions to the rule, but most HG GA, SA, BA, and even key 80s moderns are NOT volatile. They steadily increase in value over the years. You don't have anywhere near the hot/cold extremes in old books as you do new ones.

 

Thank you for telling me what a monkey holding a 1984 OSPG and 2004 OSPG could tell me. Hindsight is 20/20. Now give me your educated opinion, without relying exclusively on looking in the rear-view mirror, on what's going to happen in the next 20 years. 893scratchchin-thumb.gif

 

My opinion is based on past performance up until yesterday. Tell me a better way to come to an educated guess on the future of the comic market? I can't predict the future and neither can you. What fortune telling monkey do you get the info for all your fancy graphs? I bet you use old sales data. Anyhow, nobody can use all available data today to predict the future market with 100% certainty. If you could you would be able to tell all of us precisely when the "Great Crash" will occur. makepoint.gif

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delekkerste

delekkerste

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I can't predict the future and neither can you.

 

No one can predict the future with certainty, but some guesses are more educated than others. Your rear-view mirror analysis works well up to a point - up to the point where the major underlying trend changes. At that point, you've got to give up your monkey analysis and start really putting some thought into the future.

 

Realistically speaking, where do you think we are in terms of the life cycle of the hobby? I think anyone would be hard-pressed to argue that the best days are ahead of us. The long-term fundamentals have been worsening for years, but prices continue to climb due to the hangover of wealth from the 1990s and as the last generation of pre-videogame/pre-1990s crapola comic collectors comes of age. Trees don't grow to the sky, however, and the writing's on the wall what the future will bring.

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Aman619

Aman619

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but mature collectibles markets can recover and move on. In todays NYTimes, theres an article about an upcoming Impressionist auction that is being talked up as having a Picasso that perhaps will top the Van Gogh Dr Gachet record from the Japanese bubble years. There mentioning $100 million plus... Now that would be news.... This article might be purely hype by Sothebys, or whoever, (most probably is) but its intriguing that these pieces have elicited such comments after so many years.....

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delekkerste

delekkerste

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While I think both the comic market and fine art market are both prone to developing bubble valuations (as I have pointed out in the past), fine art has a timeless quality with universal appeal, not to mention a centuries-long track record to establish its permanence. I know a lot of comic fans would like to believe those qualities apply to comics as well, but I think that's a very comics-centric view of the world. I think it's safe to say that fine art will still be widely collected and admired, not to mention highly valued, 50 or 100 years from now, regardless of market fluctuations in the interim. Can you say the same for comics with any degree of certainty?

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Aman619

Aman619

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you know I not going to actually compare COMICS to ART ina a head-to-head battle as markets to you..... just pointing out what may signal the reawakening of what many consider "it's safe to say that fine art will still be widely collected and admired, not to mention highly valued, 50 or 100 years from now, regardless of market fluctuations in the interim." After 20 years (?) of a market setback if not a crash at the high end, Im sure the dealers have ben outwardly confident (like OSPG market reports!) of a return to the Good Ol Days and now what may happen at this auction...but inwardly scared, and perhaps not out of the woods yet.

 

I'm sure given enough time it was a safe bet that the Art world would eventually bounce back given its centuries of popular appeal...... but those were some staggeringly high prices all of a sudden in the 80s.

 

Also, again while not literally comparing our comics world to the "real world" dont forget that our little industry packs a solid punch for our meager numbers and is a mature collectibles market (I dare say that there are plenty of others that envy the comics market...even if only cause they are so comparitively small-time). While we agree about the long-term futility of comics collecting more or less, I know we differ on how much life its got left. Personally Im not worried about 50 - 100 years from now.

 

 

EDIT: if this reads garbled its cause it is... got interrupted a few times and lost my train of thought. sorry.

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shadroch

shadroch

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Posted

I,for one, am not overly concerned about the market conditions of 100 years from now. More than likely,I'll be out of collecting by then. This I can say with a fair degree of certainty.I can see comics fading into the backwoods of collectibles in 100 years,but I don't see it happening in the near-run(15-30 years).Expecting books to continue their everupward momentuem may be overly optimistic but expecting a steep and continued decline overall is, imo, overly pesstimistic.Will AF 15 one day be a million dollar book? Its possible. Will Nova 15 ever crack the $100 mark? I don't think so.

I'm beginning to suspect we are in the end of the golden age of Bronze books selling for high numbers.With a very few exceptions,I don't think the current OS levels will remain realistic.

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FlyingDonut

FlyingDonut

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I,for one, am not overly concerned about the market conditions of 100 years from now. More than likely,I'll be out of collecting by then. This I can say with a fair degree of certainty.

 

sign-funnypost.gif

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delekkerste

delekkerste

Posted
Posted
I,for one, am not overly concerned about the market conditions of 100 years from now. More than likely,I'll be out of collecting by then. This I can say with a fair degree of certainty.

 

sign-funnypost.gif

 

Let's wait and see who's still laughing as each year passes on the way to that century mark... sumo.gif

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