Post 'em if you Won 'em...C-Link, Heritage, and Pedigree.

[VintageComics]

Oh, I've selling books over GPA all year long. Selling relative GPA is not the issue here.

 

The question is, is an auction result the only true reflection of market value?

 

It never used to be until the advent of eBay and even more so with the advent GPA. Now it's morphed into being the only result people will accept.

 

The problem with auctions is that time becomes finite and the second bidder becomes the only factor that affects the results. Time of year, time of day...many real life factors can affect that second or even multiple bidders from bidding preventing higher prices.

 

It's happened to me numerous times where I am either strapped for cash, putting the kids to bed or on the road and completely forget to bid on an item, causing a lower sale price.

 

Is that a reflection of fair market value?

[warlocke]

I think people just couldn't take nine hours of consecutive auctions and passed out in front of the screen. I guessed the OW pages might have turned some people off but the colors are very bright. I'll take being lucky once in a while.

 

It's insane how much material there is all at once.

 

Unless it's a full time job, there's just no way you can keep up to everything going off.

 

 

Shouldn't the auction houses try to avoid having their auctions run in parallel? I'm exhausted, and I've barely bought anything.

[jimjum12]

It's the ole supply and demand thing. The internet has really transformed the market. Books that are perceived to be common NEVER turn up for sale here locally. A lot of us have become jaded with the market being as robust as it has been lately....but now other investment oppurtunities abound and astute collectors know they can double their money or more in a few years with some  Stocks and some Real Estate....and then go back and buy comics with the profits. The truly scarce stuff still does OK....but when it comes to the economic equation that drives the Vintage market, many folks fail to recognize that demand is just a variable and not a constant. The only real constant factors in the equation are time duration, currency values, and scarcity( or lack there of). GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

P.S. I'm no expert.....OFTEN losing money when the time to sell arises.

[warlocke]

Wow!!

 

Hulk #181 CGC 9.8 WP ended at $10,251

 

From $24,000 to $10,251 in a few years

 

Oh no.

[BronzeBruce13]

It seems clear to me that it's a "last recent sale(s) strongly defines current value going forward" market now. Potential buyers are immediately influenced by a sale (GPA recorded or on Clink) and re-evaluate their position. Fear of loss fuels this conservative buying approach... with good reason.

[warlocke]

Wow!!

 

Hulk #181 CGC 9.8 WP ended at $10,251

 

From $24,000 to $10,251 in a few years

 

There are 47 copies graded at 9.8 now. Seriously ?

 

. Everyone wants one, so the book is pressed to hell and submitted much more frequently than most other books. If I had $470,000 to spend, then I'd buy all of them.

[VintageComics]

Wow!!

 

Hulk #181 CGC 9.8 WP ended at $10,251

 

From $24,000 to $10,251 in a few years

 

Oh no.

 

That particular copy was also miswrapped. Some bidders avoid certain production flaws (miswrap, date stamp, writing, etc) and that causes a drop in price at auction.

 

 

[BronzeBruce13]

...very true, and unfortunately for sellers, it often "sticks" as the "new price" perception.

 

 

Wow!!

 

Hulk #181 CGC 9.8 WP ended at $10,251

 

From $24,000 to $10,251 in a few years

 

Oh no.

 

That particular copy was also miswrapped. Some bidders avoid certain production flaws (miswrap, date stamp, writing, etc) and that causes a drop in price at auction.

 

[drbanner]

There's a glut of material on the market right now...especially this month. I consigned a bunch of books to Clink a few months back and several of them are going to sit around until 2012 until an "opening" appears for that particular book/grade in one of their auctions.

 

The # of books continuing to appreciate in value appears to be shrinking, while the # of books depreciating in value appears to be growing. Blue chip and scarce items still do well, but everything else is stagnant or selling for less and less. Unfortunately, I appear to have gained a knack for buying "blue chip and scarce items" that become "everything else" within 6 months to a year. Five, ten years ago that wasn't the case, but these days it's like a bear chasing you up a tree...

[goldust40]

There's a glut of material on the market right now...especially this month. I consigned a bunch of books to Clink a few months back and several of them are going to sit around until 2012 until an "opening" appears for that particular book/grade in one of their auctions.

 

The # of books continuing to appreciate in value appears to be shrinking, while the # of books depreciating in value appears to be growing. Blue chip and scarce items still do well, but everything else is stagnant or selling for less and less. Unfortunately, I appear to have gained a knack for buying "blue chip and scarce items" that become "everything else" within 6 months to a year. Five, ten years ago that wasn't the case, but these days it's like a bear chasing you up a tree...

 

Very true. And I see this trend continuing....

[FoomMember]

There's a glut of material on the market right now...especially this month. I consigned a bunch of books to Clink a few months back and several of them are going to sit around until 2012 until an "opening" appears for that particular book/grade in one of their auctions.

 

The # of books continuing to appreciate in value appears to be shrinking, while the # of books depreciating in value appears to be growing. Blue chip and scarce items still do well, but everything else is stagnant or selling for less and less. Unfortunately, I appear to have gained a knack for buying "blue chip and scarce items" that become "everything else" within 6 months to a year. Five, ten years ago that wasn't the case, but these days it's like a bear chasing you up a tree...

 

very well said. I'm looking at my 'everything else' 9.4's now that might appreciate and wondering if they'll even get back to '07/'08 levels again.

 

it's also interesting to see that even GL#76 and H#181 are feeling some of the effect of the current market. abundant supply didn't help those either.

[BronzeBruce13]

Same experience here Mike... the MO that worked easily in years past will kick your arse in short order these days. I learned my lesson in about 6 months. The market took about 20% from me (on my casual speculative buys) for not recognizing the current dynamic and adapting.

 

Now, it's a "better be real sure and act quickly & realistically" MO... or your holding the hot, sinking value potato. And, that still does not guarantee success.

 

Not a market for the meek...

 

 

 

There's a glut of material on the market right now...especially this month. I consigned a bunch of books to Clink a few months back and several of them are going to sit around until 2012 until an "opening" appears for that particular book/grade in one of their auctions.

 

The # of books continuing to appreciate in value appears to be shrinking, while the # of books depreciating in value appears to be growing. Blue chip and scarce items still do well, but everything else is stagnant or selling for less and less. Unfortunately, I appear to have gained a knack for buying "blue chip and scarce items" that become "everything else" within 6 months to a year. Five, ten years ago that wasn't the case, but these days it's like a bear chasing you up a tree...

[drbanner]

Same experience here Mike... the MO that worked easily in years past will kick your arse in short order these days. I learned my lesson in about 6 months. The market took about 20% from me (on my casual speculative buys) for not recognizing the current dynamic and adapting.

 

Now, it's a "better be real sure and act quickly & realistically" MO... or your holding the hot, sinking value potato. And, that still does not guarantee success.

 

Not a market for the meek...

There's a glut of material on the market right now...especially this month. I consigned a bunch of books to Clink a few months back and several of them are going to sit around until 2012 until an "opening" appears for that particular book/grade in one of their auctions.

 

The # of books continuing to appreciate in value appears to be shrinking, while the # of books depreciating in value appears to be growing. Blue chip and scarce items still do well, but everything else is stagnant or selling for less and less. Unfortunately, I appear to have gained a knack for buying "blue chip and scarce items" that become "everything else" within 6 months to a year. Five, ten years ago that wasn't the case, but these days it's like a bear chasing you up a tree...

 

Bruce!

 

I'm pretty much buying books for my personal collection these days, so I don't mind if the books don't appreciate, but I do mind when they depreciate b/c that means I could have gotten them for cheaper if I waited.

 

So, I wait. I wait for bargains and eat popcorn while watching the Million Dollar comic books sales make the national news knowing all the while that 95% of the slabbed books out there are going nowhere (except maybe down).

 

All that exposure of comics as an investment is great and may lead to reinvigoration of the overall comic book market when the economy rebounds, but the supply side of the equation is continually growing as more raw books are slabbed and as more slabbed books are improved and resubmitted, so who knows?

[Wally's Comics]

There's a glut of material on the market right now...especially this month. I consigned a bunch of books to Clink a few months back and several of them are going to sit around until 2012 until an "opening" appears for that particular book/grade in one of their auctions.

 

The # of books continuing to appreciate in value appears to be shrinking, while the # of books depreciating in value appears to be growing. Blue chip and scarce items still do well, but everything else is stagnant or selling for less and less. Unfortunately, I appear to have gained a knack for buying "blue chip and scarce items" that become "everything else" within 6 months to a year. Five, ten years ago that wasn't the case, but these days it's like a bear chasing you up a tree...

 

You're not going to find many Hulk #1 Non Chipping White page Beauties like you got though brother.

 

 

[BronzeBruce13]

Supply used to be on the "short side" for most everything pre-74ish. That left buyers "wanting and impatient" (gotta' have it nows, myself included). Future high-grade supply was unknown, and largely presumed to end up being much less than what it's turned out to be. So, aggressiveness was the only way to really acquire the items you wanted. Prices escalated regularly... supporting that behavior.

 

Now... supply is obviously far more abundant (even on surprising "thought to be always rare" items, like GL 76, etc.). Its simply a "waiting game = success" MO for most buyers on anything but the truly scare or low-census items (most of the time. ) . And, even when they buy at a price they are very happy with, as a result of that patience, they still see the same item going for less later in some instances -- which makes them "even more" patient the next time.

 

I don't see this trend ending anytime soon. It's a serious buyers' market. And as much as it sucks for those that sell primarily now, I feel good for the collectors that couldn't play in the "gold rush CGC era", but now can obtain what they couldn't then.... good for them.

 

 

Same experience here Mike... the MO that worked easily in years past will kick your arse in short order these days. I learned my lesson in about 6 months. The market took about 20% from me (on my casual speculative buys) for not recognizing the current dynamic and adapting.

 

Now, it's a "better be real sure and act quickly & realistically" MO... or your holding the hot, sinking value potato. And, that still does not guarantee success.

 

Not a market for the meek...

There's a glut of material on the market right now...especially this month. I consigned a bunch of books to Clink a few months back and several of them are going to sit around until 2012 until an "opening" appears for that particular book/grade in one of their auctions.

 

The # of books continuing to appreciate in value appears to be shrinking, while the # of books depreciating in value appears to be growing. Blue chip and scarce items still do well, but everything else is stagnant or selling for less and less. Unfortunately, I appear to have gained a knack for buying "blue chip and scarce items" that become "everything else" within 6 months to a year. Five, ten years ago that wasn't the case, but these days it's like a bear chasing you up a tree...

 

Bruce!

 

I'm pretty much buying books for my personal collection these days, so I don't mind if the books don't appreciate, but I do mind when they depreciate b/c that means I could have gotten them for cheaper if I waited.

 

So, I wait. I wait for bargains and eat popcorn while watching the Million Dollar comic books sales make the national news knowing all the while that 95% of the slabbed books out there are going nowhere (except maybe down).

 

All that exposure of comics as an investment is great and may lead to reinvigoration of the overall comic book market when the economy rebounds, but the supply side of the equation is continually growing as more raw books are slabbed and as more slabbed books are improved and resubmitted, so who knows?

[VintageComics]

Bruce, supply is part of the story and demand is the other.

 

I believe that demand is partially affected by the economy we're in (lost jobs and uncertainty) and also by confidence in purchases which are greatly affected by internet chatter.

 

Confidence (or a lack thereof) affects all markets...foreign exchange, commodities, stocks and yeah, hobbies.

 

Talk a book/stock/commodity up and it skyrockets in price. Talk the same product down and it drops in price.

 

That's the reality that I see.

[jimjum12]

I'm doing something I haven't done in a long time....scrolling through the auction results from Clink. I noticed the 9.8 Detective 400 went for a much better price than when the first one surfaced. I always loved that book. I was outbid on everything so far except one book and my max bid is guide, so I'll probably lose that too. It seems the prices for 1957-1963 books ....the stuff I like, seems fairly stable. George did get a real good deal on the FF 8. I hope FF doesn't become the Star Spangled Comics of the SA....It will always be my favorite title. I still see BA books in high grade going for WAY more than I'd spend on them....Bruce hit the nail on the head about the impatience angle. One really needs to do their resarch if investing in that area. We definitely have a correction going on in 1965 on.I sure wish the market would soften up on Thunda # 1.....I was wanting that one. A 9.0 Marvel Tales 134 that I seriously wanted and thought could be had easily for 500  broke a thousand dollars. I saw some good deals on early Batman...but certainly nothing cheap. It still amazes me how prices can remain strong on early ASM auction after auction with so many available.....everybody loves Spidey. This has been the strongest year in my memory for availability, and right in the middle of a bad economy.....the market is actually appearing to be quite resilient when viewed in "big picture" mode. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[VintageComics]

Jimbo, Thunda #1 used to be valued equally with Action #1.

 

The market has softened up for Thunda #1 !!

 

[BronzeBruce13]

Of course Roy, but part of the reason I don't see the trend changing anytime soon is because, sadly, I also don't see the current economic climate improving anytime soon.

 

There is little chance of a sustained upsurge without attracting many, many more buyers into the market -- where the dynamic can shift enough to make a difference. Even if that could happen, it wouldn't become the "yesteryear buying behavior" all over again. The lessons learned now, won't be abandoned.

 

That said, I applaud the tenacity and positive thinking of today's sellers, like yourself, that dig in and make the extra effort to come out ahead regardless. It can be done, but as you know, it ain't no cake walk.

 

 

Bruce, supply is part of the story and demand is the other.

 

I believe that demand is partially affected by the economy we're in (lost jobs and uncertainty) and also by confidence in purchases which are greatly affected by internet chatter.

 

Confidence (or a lack thereof) affects all markets...foreign exchange, commodities, stocks and yeah, hobbies.

 

Talk a book/stock/commodity up and it skyrockets in price. Talk the same product down and it drops in price.

 

That's the reality that I see.

[jimjum12]

Jimbo, Thunda #1 used to be valued equally with Action #1.

 

The market has softened up for Thunda #1 !!

 

 

I'm a Ho' and I want Mo'......GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u