HG silver keys softening?

[jimjum12]

As far as the "paper vs. digital" dabate I would repeat for the nth time what i always said: that they aren’t two comparable things. Digital access is useful, no matter if we have collectors or not, and a book offer a reading means (and experience) that data organized on a screen won’t offer, because of the very nature of electronically stored information.

 

And Roy is absolutely right in speaking of information and "logistics": it’s not called "informatics" for nothing, but we are really getting too dependent on it (and I am not talking of this kind of worldwide communication on a forum or a network, which remains the equivalent of a phone call).

 

Said this, someone too bored with paper should really consider sending me a lowgrade copy of FF #1 as a gift…

 

......I'd be happy to get one at half guide in good plus with nice eye appeal..... GOD BLESS....

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[paperheart]

I guess we should go back to the 2X guide for 9.2's, 4X for 9.4's, 6X for 9.6's and 15X for 9.8's.

 

To think those were the pioneer days.

 

Those were the days my friend, I think they'll never end.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVdOQvx379Y

 

i remember them well. so long ago that those 2x 9.2's are less than guide now.

[Sqeggs]

The original post in this thread asked about mega-keys. Based on the available GPA data and current asking prices from dealer websites, I don't know of any SA Marvel mega-keys with softening prices. I'm not considering the 9.4-9.8 copies, which have always had prices dictated more by insanity than traditional market forces, but the vast majority of copies, which fail to obtain those lofty grades.

 

I've noticed that AF 15 in low mid-grade -- say, 3.0 to 5.0 -- has been taking some hits. A year of so ago there were some pretty strong prices for those grades; not so much lately.

[LordRahl]

GL76 in 9.6 Hulk 181 9.8 Daredevil 1 in 9.6 those are just three keys off the top of my head that have lost 60% of their value in a few years. I think both 76 and 181 were near 30k and are now under 10k. DD1 was 67k? I think the last one sold at around 22k. Those were the last keys I looked at that were being discussed here and there on the boards. FF48 in 9.8 13k now $8k. X-Men 94 dropped too. Don't recall the number off the top of my head. Batman 171 9.6 14k to 7k. Actually a lot of Batmans are half now. These are mostly the ones I've been watching at auctions on CL and Pedigree and taking pricing notes. Early Avengers once selling for 3k and early ASM's for 3k I've picked up from $500-$1200. I'm sure there are a lot of books going up too, but not the ones I've been seeing.

 

I am running out. Good post, but I don't have the time to really digest it.

 

The one thing that everyone seems to ignore when they start quoting GPA prices and how a book has either gone down or gone up substantially, is that there are wild swings in auction prices from book to book.

 

To take your Hulk 181 in 9.8 for example. In Aug '09 a copy sold for $17K, on Sep 5th '09 a copy sold for $25.5K and 15 days later another copy sold for $16K. So, did the book drop in FMV in 15 days by 40%? NO. Just like it didn't go up in FMV by 50% a month prior.

 

This is just the nature of auctions. There are so many factors that go into the final price of an auction that it should not be used to base FMV. If there are enough sales, an average might be a good indicator of FMV but not one sale... or even 2-3 sales.

 

Now on average, Hulk 181 in 9.8 is dropping lately however Hulk 181 in 9.4 is trending up. So is the market for the book really softening? No.

[VintageComics]

GL76 in 9.6 Hulk 181 9.8 Daredevil 1 in 9.6 those are just three keys off the top of my head that have lost 60% of their value in a few years. I think both 76 and 181 were near 30k and are now under 10k. DD1 was 67k? I think the last one sold at around 22k. Those were the last keys I looked at that were being discussed here and there on the boards. FF48 in 9.8 13k now $8k. X-Men 94 dropped too. Don't recall the number off the top of my head. Batman 171 9.6 14k to 7k. Actually a lot of Batmans are half now. These are mostly the ones I've been watching at auctions on CL and Pedigree and taking pricing notes. Early Avengers once selling for 3k and early ASM's for 3k I've picked up from $500-$1200. I'm sure there are a lot of books going up too, but not the ones I've been seeing.

 

I am running out. Good post, but I don't have the time to really digest it.

 

As mentioned, this thread was really about Silver Age keys and not bronze keys, but even those have been growing progressively stronger with no letting up.

 

It's easy to see highest graded copies fall in value where a GL #76 9.6 or a Hulk #181 9.8 drops from $30K to 15K or a DD #1 from $60K to $25K in 9.6, but we are not talking about keys softening when we're having discussions about a total of 1 or 2 or 5 copies of each issue trading hands in only highest graded tiers.

 

All of the grades leading up to the highest graded tiers from 1.0 - 9.4 give you a better perspective on what is happening in the market: Nearly every book that you have mentioned as dropping significantly has been increasing in every grade up to the 9.6 and 9.8 tier.

 

So that shows that demand is indeed strong when VG's, Fine's and VF's are increasing in value and only shows that the multiples that people were paying for top graded copies were not based on anything but the need to have a copy at any cost.

 

A couple of 9.6 or 9.8 sales add to the market, but they do not to themselves a market make.

 

I guess we should go back to the 2X guide for 9.2's, 4X for 9.4's, 6X for 9.6's and 15X for 9.8's.

 

To think those were the pioneer days.

 

Those were the days my friend, I think they'll never end.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVdOQvx379Y

 

i remember them well. so long ago that those 2x 9.2's are less than guide now.

 

Another thing to remember, is the guide went up significantly on many of these books after CGC started, so it was a catch 22. Books sold for strong money, Guide went up. Guide went up? Oh, time to ask for even more for my key as I can't replace it any cheaper. Sold for that price? I suppose I have to tell Bob Overstreet that they're selling for more than Guide - guess what? Guide goes up - keep going round in circles ad nauseum.

 

So now that we've had an ultra high grade correction on the more common top tier books, some books have dropped in value on higher grade books and it just so happens that you may have some books that the Guide is priced over GPA on because the guide hasn't corrected yet, but let's step back and take some perspective: Can you buy a mega Silver age key for 2001 guide? No. Can you buy it for 2001 GPA? No. How about 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 GPA/Guide? No? So you can't really say keys are softening and this is where I keep saying a little perspective is important rather than over analyzing only 1 or 2 or 3 data points let's look at the entire picture: The numbers won't lie.

 

This is where GPA becomes an ineffective tool, because a buyer sees a lower sale as the last sale, takes that sale out of context of the greater picture and assumes that it's trending down ignoring all other factors even though all other clues are pointing upwards. now the buyer doesn't want to pay more than GPA and decides to bid less or pay less.

 

Again, one or two data points do not make a market.

 

As I said, there is some volatility and the majority of it is in the highest end, but there is a very strong fundamental support for all grades leading up to those higher grades showing that demand is still strong and still exceeding supply.

 

The original post in this thread asked about mega-keys. Based on the available GPA data and current asking prices from dealer websites, I don't know of any SA Marvel mega-keys with softening prices. I'm not considering the 9.4-9.8 copies, which have always had prices dictated more by insanity than traditional market forces, but the vast majority of copies, which fail to obtain those lofty grades.

 

I've noticed that AF 15 in low mid-grade -- say, 3.0 to 5.0 -- has been taking some hits. A year of so ago there were some pretty strong prices for those grades; not so much lately.

 

I remember passing on $3000 copies of AF #15 in 2008 at a show thinking the guy wanted to much. Those books would be worth 2-3 times that now.1 year is a very limited perspective. There is always a slight, cyclical plateau as market factors level out. Again, just to keep it in perspective pull back your point of reference of 2-3 years.

 

If anything is soft right now, it's the multiples that people were paying for top end copies of common books, but even those seem to be correcting as the lower grades catch up.

 

The one thing that everyone seems to ignore when they start quoting GPA prices and how a book has either gone down or gone up substantially, is that there are wild swings in auction prices from book to book.

 

To take your Hulk 181 in 9.8 for example. In Aug '09 a copy sold for $17K, on Sep 5th '09 a copy sold for $25.5K and 15 days later another copy sold for $16K. So, did the book drop in FMV in 15 days by 40%? NO. Just like it didn't go up in FMV by 50% a month prior.

 

This is just the nature of auctions. There are so many factors that go into the final price of an auction that it should not be used to base FMV. If there are enough sales, an average might be a good indicator of FMV but not one sale... or even 2-3 sales.

 

Now on average, Hulk 181 in 9.8 is dropping lately however Hulk 181 in 9.4 is trending up. So is the market for the book really softening? No.

 

Yup.

 

[The-Collector]

Are the prices on high grade silver mega keys heading downwards? What do you think the outlook is for the nosebleed books?

 

Was Doug Schmell Cashing out because he saw the market heading down hill?

 

There were a number of other non-market related factors that played into that decision

 

Will the rise in equity markets mean less capital is put into collectibles?

 

I have personally been noticing plenty of new money coming into the hobby. Don't think this is a problem.

 

Have the mega keys and pressing made high grade examples too available ?

 

Yes

 

Does the rise of digital comics represent the end of funny book collecting?

 

No

 

 

 

 

So the outlook is good?

Filter is a dealer. I`ve never heard any dealer say things weren`t good, even when they really weren`t.

 

So if I can take two things away from this post its that:

 

1) All dealers are liars if it suits them to do so

 

and

 

2) you didn't actually read my post to reach that conclusion.

 

All I did was answer four questions.

 

1) I don't believe market conditions was the main factor behind Doug selling his collection when he did. I believe there were some personal reasons involved.

 

2) I've seen no evidence that the rise in equity markets has had any effect on comic book collecting whatsoever, and have sold some big books to "new" money in recent months.

 

3) I do think the widespread ability to press books is making mega keys too available in high grade.

 

4) and I don't think digital comic collecting is going to destroy the hobby.

 

But then again, I'm a dealer so you probably shouldn't trust me...

 

I agree with you on almost everything you stated, but the first one. And I will not disagree because I do not know who he is. I would have assumed he sold his collection because he wanted the $$.

 

Latest Scandal! Comic Book Dealer Disbarred As Lawyer!!!!

 

Did you sign up this time just to post that? Seems an odd first post.

 

Yeah. That was the implication.

 

[The-Collector]

The quality of discussion in this thread is great! I just want to clarify that the questions I asked in the 1st post aren't the opinions I hold on the issue.

 

I agree with Roy. Micro analysis is not helpful. The vicissitudes of auctions means that analysis of a single sale does more harm than good.

[Sqeggs]

And, of course, there are other characteristics of a book beyond its grade that can affect price. You can get PQ from GPA, but miscuts or chipping can also lower the price. I think G.A.tor offered the opinion that significant chipping can knock 20% off the price of a mid-grade AF 15.

[jimjum12]

And, of course, there are other characteristics of a book beyond its grade that can affect price. You can get PQ from GPA, but miscuts or chipping can also lower the price. I think G.A.tor offered the opinion that significant chipping can knock 20% off the price of a mid-grade AF 15.

 

.... which MANY of them have. GOD BLESS....

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[Beige]

Someone mentioned the FF# 48 as being very common.

I agree - but there is an awful lot of SA key goodness in that one book!

I have a 9.4 and it's a keeper!

Maybe its an age thing as well - I grew up with the Kitchsy Batman series so to me,The Riddler IS an iconic bad-guy.

For younger people, it would appear Wolverine is more important.

I imagine for teenagers right now, it will be The Walking Dead that is the 'must have' book in a few years time - ala TMNT.

 

[shrunkenhead]

Interesting reading, folks. I'm left wondering how Tos 39 currently fares? Similarly downward or still strong?

[tth2]

I guess we should go back to the 2X guide for 9.2's, 4X for 9.4's, 6X for 9.6's and 15X for 9.8's.

 

To think those were the pioneer days.

For early SA DC, it was more like 10X for 9.4s, 15X for 9.6s and 20X for 9.8s. Of course, the Guide price was so low back then they were still decent deals.

 

Good times!

[tth2]

The original post in this thread asked about mega-keys. Based on the available GPA data and current asking prices from dealer websites, I don't know of any SA Marvel mega-keys with softening prices. I'm not considering the 9.4-9.8 copies, which have always had prices dictated more by insanity than traditional market forces, but the vast majority of copies, which fail to obtain those lofty grades.

Is X-Men 1 in 9.4 still a $100K+ book? That`s my benchmark book.

[The-Collector]

Gpa has two sales in 9.4 listed In July and November 2012 both for $89,625. Seems odd they are the exact same value. Anyone know the details of these sales?

[tth2]

Can you buy a mega Silver age key for 2001 guide? No. Can you buy it for 2001 GPA? No. How about 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 GPA/Guide? No? So you can't really say keys are softening and this is where I keep saying a little perspective is important rather than over analyzing only 1 or 2 or 3 data points let's look at the entire picture: The numbers won't lie.

Okay, I have to call total dealer spin here.

 

The fact that a class of asset hasn`t retraced back to prices from EIGHT years ago doesn`t mean that it hasn`t softened. If I bought a HG mega-key at the top of the market, and I think you would admit that the top of the market for most of them was more than 2 years ago, then by definition it has softened.

 

Yes, there might be limited data points, but that`s the nature of an asset where there are only a few copies available.

 

And it`s how funny how in a soft market, dealers will pooh-pooh crazy high auction sale prices as outliers, but when the market is going up they will point to the previous crazy high auction sale prices and try to sell that as a new benchmark for the next buyer to pay even more.

 

When that 9.8 Avengers 57 went for $25K or whatever insane price it went for, did dealers who subsequently came up with a 9.8 Avengers 57 tell prospective buyers:

 

a) that price was paid by some nut who wanted it too much, a realistic price is $15K, which is what I`ll offer to you

 

or

 

b) the last book sold for $25K!!! This book is on fire!!!! If I put it up for auction, there`s no telling what it`s going to go for, now that everyone knows this book is red hot!!! But for you, I will let it go for a mere $30K.

[Bomber-Bob]

It's nice to hear from someone like Bob Storms on this discussion. One thing Bob said that I found interesting is his observation about the 4500 9.6's of some key pressed and resubbed during a soft grading period to attempt to get a 9.8 . Spot on !

Essentially Bob is pointing out that soft grading is not good for the hobby in the long run.

[ItsJustRyan]

Someone mentioned the FF# 48 as being very common.

I agree - but there is an awful lot of SA key goodness in that one book!

I have a 9.4 and it's a keeper!

Maybe its an age thing as well - I grew up with the Kitchsy Batman series so to me,The Riddler IS an iconic bad-guy.

For younger people, it would appear Wolverine is more important.

I imagine for teenagers right now, it will be The Walking Dead that is the 'must have' book in a few years time - ala TMNT.

 

I'm in 100% agreement my friend (thumbs u

[VintageComics]

The original post in this thread asked about mega-keys. Based on the available GPA data and current asking prices from dealer websites, I don't know of any SA Marvel mega-keys with softening prices. I'm not considering the 9.4-9.8 copies, which have always had prices dictated more by insanity than traditional market forces, but the vast majority of copies, which fail to obtain those lofty grades.

Is X-Men 1 in 9.4 still a $100K+ book? That`s my benchmark book.

 

Yes, I know of a copy that sold recently for that price (or very close to it) and another with an offer of the same price but the seller is not in a hurry to sell.

 

Gpa has two sales in 9.4 listed In July and November 2012 both for $89,625. Seems odd they are the exact same value. Anyone know the details of these sales?

 

One was a Heritage sale, not sure where the other one was sold.

 

Can you buy a mega Silver age key for 2001 guide? No. Can you buy it for 2001 GPA? No. How about 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 GPA/Guide? No? So you can't really say keys are softening and this is where I keep saying a little perspective is important rather than over analyzing only 1 or 2 or 3 data points let's look at the entire picture: The numbers won't lie.

Okay, I have to call total dealer spin here.

 

The fact that a class of asset hasn`t retraced back to prices from EIGHT years ago doesn`t mean that it hasn`t softened. If I bought a HG mega-key at the top of the market, and I think you would admit that the top of the market for most of them was more than 2 years ago, then by definition it has softened.

 

Yes, there might be limited data points, but that`s the nature of an asset where there are only a few copies available.

 

Of course you would call it dealer spin - you took my quote out of context and made it mean something it didn't. My quote is directly related to Paperheart's example of how 9.2 Guide is now over 9.2 GPA on some books (I have no idea which books he's talking about - I didn't look at the guide when I typed up my reply, I simply explained the phenomenon of how guide and GPA work in tandem).

 

Here is the quote:

 

I guess we should go back to the 2X guide for 9.2's, 4X for 9.4's, 6X for 9.6's and 15X for 9.8's.

 

To think those were the pioneer days.

 

Those were the days my friend, I think they'll never end.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVdOQvx379Y

 

i remember them well. so long ago that those 2x 9.2's are less than guide now.

 

I'm pretty sure he's just talking about non-key books as I just did look at the guide - I don't think I saw one SA key book where Guide was higher than GPA in 9.2. That means that all SA keys are selling for over Guide currently.

 

 

I've also already admitted that markets will plateau and reset, so I don't know why you are calling it a spin. You just edited that part of my posts out. It happened about 2 years ago with AF #15 and it's possibly happening with some books now. It's a naturally cylical phenom. You should know.

 

Did that make AF #15 soft 2 years ago? Again, I think people are micro analyzing and not seeing the big picture.

 

And finally as explained in detail, prices are relatively strong for keys in lower grades (most lower to mid to mid high grade books are pushing an upward tragectory) and analyzing just the top of the market on a few select books does not make a market.

 

i suppose if we're going to discuss "soft prices" people need to define what they mean by soft rather than arbitrarily talking past each other about 5 different things.

 

And it`s how funny how in a soft market, dealers will pooh-pooh crazy high auction sale prices as outliers, but when the market is going up they will point to the previous crazy high auction sale prices and try to sell that as a new benchmark for the next buyer to pay even more.

 

When that 9.8 Avengers 57 went for $25K or whatever insane price it went for, did dealers who subsequently came up with a 9.8 Avengers 57 tell prospective buyers:

 

a) that price was paid by some nut who wanted it too much, a realistic price is $15K, which is what I`ll offer to you

 

or

 

b) the last book sold for $25K!!! This book is on fire!!!! If I put it up for auction, there`s no telling what it`s going to go for, now that everyone knows this book is red hot!!! But for you, I will let it go for a mere $30K.

 

I'm not disputing that people do that but then I've already covered the fact that some sellers (and not just dealers, collectors too) use outliers as ways to leverage their asking prices.

 

I can't explain to you how many times I've had a collector offer me books at full, top, bloated, outlier GPA only to be low balled on a book of mine they want.

 

I've personally never priced my books that way (looking at high outliers and using only that single data point as a reference) . I always look at averages over time to find a price. I'll also factor in other things like desirability, replacement cost, trends, etc.

 

Now I have at times priced certain books extremely high, but that is because I don't want to sell them for cheaper for whatever reason (emotional attachment or cost into the book), and that is a fair strategy.

 

It's nice to hear from someone like Bob Storms on this discussion. One thing Bob said that I found interesting is his observation about the 4500 9.6's of some key pressed and resubbed during a soft grading period to attempt to get a 9.8 . Spot on !

Essentially Bob is pointing out that soft grading is not good for the hobby in the long run.

 

I agree with it too.

[tth2]

It's nice to hear from someone like Bob Storms on this discussion. One thing Bob said that I found interesting is his observation about the 4500 9.6's of some key pressed and resubbed during a soft grading period to attempt to get a 9.8 . Spot on !

Essentially Bob is pointing out that soft grading is not good for the hobby in the long run.

I think he`s also pointing out that pressing is not good for the hobby in the long run.

 

And yet everyone will continue to do it.

[blazingbob]

Tim,

 

If a highest graded copy sells for a silly price I do not tell buyers that the "book is on fire".

 

First comment to the buyer is that I don't always feel the sale is repeatable.

 

To me comic buyers are just like retail shoppers, you have the Saks/Nordstrom/Lord & Taylor buyer, Target/Macy's, TJ Max and Dollar General Categories. Each has a "expectation/price point".

 

I basically categorize buyers in a A-F ranking.

 

I tell them using the Big screen TV analogy that maybe the guy who wanted his copy first on the street is willing to pay the most. The A buyers who want the best and don't care about the price. The B listers who have a little patience and wait a bit for a discount. The C lister who is the guy who waits for prices to come down but has a price he/she would be willing to pay. The D/E guys basically want the clearance sale price. F buyers are the champagne taste with beer wallet buyers. Doesn't matter what the price is they want the flea market found it in a yard sale price.