The VF range

[COI]

Ok, first off this post will apply mostly to older/more valuable books like early silver(1956-1964) and Gold books.

 

IMO, there's something severely lacking in the current O.S and CGC 10-point scale in regards to these older books in the VF-VF/NM range(8.0-9.0). Does anyone esle think these grades should be more clearly defined as they were in the old 100-point scale? What troubles me is that VF ranged books can be so close in appearance and quality, but command huge differences in price. An 8.3 and an 8.7 would be very close in quality, but if one is rounded up to a 9.0, and the other to an 8.0, you've got a potential huge price gap between 2 copies that are too close to each other to warrant that type of price deviation.

 

For early Silver, the market for VF ranged books should continue growing. There aren't many Brulato's out there who can afford to collect Nm or higher runs of early silvers. And even if you have the means, the quanitiy is just not there. You can have all the money in the world, but if the best books are being locked down in permanent collections, you're just not going to get them. A lot of people could afford a NM FF #13, but how many of those people are actually going to get one? The way things are going, only one. And even if someone can pry that copy away from Bob, or who ever else will own it, all it takes is one person to decide to keep the book "permanently".

 

I think that afluent collectors have been seeing too many NM books on the market in the last 3 years, and are becoming too confident that they'll be able to put together all the books they need at some point or another. But as more time passes, I think reality will set in. Seeing the influx of NM or higher ASM books hit the census(as a result of movie hype) has left many people thinking that these mountains of NM books are still on the way for many other titles. But I'm absolutely positive that this isn't the case. Therefore, I see the VF range becoming very popular in the future. And if that does happen I think it will be very important that the VF range is disected and a more detailed standard be made.

 

Opinions?

 

[Guest]

Its inevitable the prices will rise on VF books as people realize there isnt an endless supply of NM books from the silver or even bronze age. NOW is the time to buy these inexpensive Gems (if people have any clue on how to make a nice profit). If I collected silver age books Id be buying them all up cheaply now and then sell them in 10 years to make a killing!

[ericc123]

Your preaching to the preacher on this one Andrew. I have always thougth that VF and VF+ books were way undervalued and it's only a matter of time before the supply of NM runs dry and all that is left is VF. Does that mean that I collect alot of VF books? No, but what can I say I'm an insufficiently_thoughtful_person.

 

For real now, a perspective Gman buyer.

Ericc123

[collectorscavern-migration]

I"ve thought this for years, though it's hard to convince many people right now. I'd say in maybe 5-10 years, the amount of true 9.4 NM and up Silver (and Bronze) will be very small indeed, and will get smaller as more collectors hold on to things. I'd say VF and VF+ books (and even mid F'ish books) are real bargains right now. I'm grabbing up all the 60's and 70's DC in medium and high grades I can find, an area that will rise even more over time as people realize how little nice medium and high grade DC there is, less than Marvel by a long shot.

[Guest]

great minds think alike......a lot of people who didnt listen will be trying to catch up after its too late. Maybe then theyll start collecting VGs when they realize theyre bargains too!

[bronzejunkie]

I know alot of collector friends who refuse to pay NM prices and have one book when they could buy a VF for alot less and possibly buy another two or three books of the same grade. These guys mostly collect keys and I'll have to say, I think they are brilliant.

 

VF fans are growing faster each day as they watch minor keys in 9.6 approaching a grand when they could just go and buy it at fifty bucks in lowly VF, but I've seen a ton of guys who are beginning to prefur this and actually balk at Nm issues now, strange as that sounds, I know. I've been selling a bunch of my double keys in the marketplace and am blown away at the response towards the VF and lower material, everyone wants a piece these days, and honestly who can blame them with the insanity on e-bay for high end stuff that is quickly pricing itself out of everyones hands.

 

bronzejunkie

 

 

[COI]

The only time I care about getting the highest possible copy is on key books. But I'm not into paying 8X guide for a non-key just because it's a NM+, unless I have some sort of attachment to the particular book.

 

Ok, no one has addressed one of my original questions, so I'll ask again:

 

With the demand for VF - VF/NM books ever increasing, do you think there should be emphasis on a division of the range into something like 8.0, 8.2, 8.4 etc.....

And again, more implied towards the higher priced books where this division could mean big $$$$.

[awe4one]

No. Further dividing the ranges will only add to the confusion felt by collectors still struggling to figure out what's the difference between 9.2, 9.4, 9.6,..etc. I'd also suspect that some of today's 9.X comics would slide downward as the grading community makes 9.X comics the best available with it's own caveat.

 

On the plus side, I'd suspect that a change would result in more collectors for VF comics. Doing so would probably result in a mini boom for CGC also as dealers get their comics regraded.

 

Changing the current scheme, which "I" already think is too divided, would complicate matters and cause more problems than solutions.

 

 

Jim

[fantastic_four]

With the demand for VF - VF/NM books ever increasing, do you think there should be emphasis on a division of the range into something like 8.0, 8.2, 8.4 etc.....

Yes, there should be. On Golden and Silver age keys, the difference between 8.0 and 9.0 is tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars, so more precision is needed.

 

However, it may be too ambitious right now. It'd be nice if it were also accompanied by very, very specific standards for those new grades, because right now we all assume at least a quarter-grade margin of error even for professional graders. That margin of error indicates that the descriptive standards for the grades haven't caught up with the 25-notch scale yet. It's possible the new Grading Guide will help, but only a little. A more thoroughly-defined standard is needed for that kind of precision.

[ninanina]

AndrewKnight, I truly hope so. If what I think will happen in 10 or 15 years happens, I'm sitting on a gold mine. For me it's hard to predict what will happen, but I see a lot of similarities in playing the "comic" market, like the "stock" market.

 

There was a collector that paid $4500.00 for a restored (apparent VF) Fantastic Four #1 back in 1997. At the time, there wasn't all this current negativity towards restored comics. About 6 months ago, he sold the comic for some unknown reason. Maybe he needed the money, or maybe he just reacted to the negativity to having a restored comic. Needless to say he sold it for a fraction of what he paid for it. I resently picked up the book for $1600.00. (Most of this was paid for in trade). This was a classic case of buy high, sell low.

 

Take this and look at it from the point of view where VF's are now, I am thinking anyone who buys them, is in fact buying low at this point. Maybe in 10 or so years, the people cashing in will be the VF buyers today as well as the people buying restored comics.

[comicinvestor-migration]

While I think VF-range comics are a great deal right now, it's illogical to think that they will somehow increase in value in the future. As I've said before, collectibles grading puts a huge premium on the "cream of the crop" comics, while anything lower is viewed with disdain by the "big money".

 

Remember, the majority of those paying the huge bucks for CGC 9.6-9.8 comics are not fans, but speculators and flippers. Granted, a percentage are hardcore collectors, but I'd love to give them a lie-detector test to see if profit was one of their motivations to buy.

 

As such, the money will continue to move higher and higher on the scale, and there will likely continue to be "collector values" at the VF to VF/NM range. I buy these and enjoy them, but I certainly don't fool myself into thinking that "mad money" will flow into CGC (or raw) 8.0-9.0 comics and that I'll be profit-taking in the near future.

 

Newsflash: Other than hyper-keys, we've likely already seen the high-point of the comics market, and may never see its like again. With the vast majority of CGC 9.4 books dropping steadily, why would 8.0's suddently make a resurgence?

 

Think about it.

[collectorscavern-migration]

While I think VF-range comics are a great deal right now, it's illogical to think that they will somehow increase in value in the future. As I've said before, collectibles grading puts a huge premium on the "cream of the crop" comics, while anything lower is viewed with disdain by the "big money".

 

I think you're right as far as the big "investors" go, but collectors realize that steadily over the next 10-15 years premium NM copies will slowly disappear from the marketplace, and VF/VF+ and VF/NM will be all that's left, without paying extreme prices.

 

Newsflash: Other than hyper-keys, we've likely already seen the high-point of the comics market, and may never see its like again. With the vast majority of CGC 9.4 books dropping steadily, why would 8.0's suddently make a resurgence?

 

Because the "CGC slabbed" thing got WAY, WAY too far out of control to begin with, and the market is correcting itself. Prices over the next 10-20 years in everything F and above will continue to slowly (and realistically) rise, as copies get scarcer and the VF and VF/NM type grades get collected and locked in collections. I remember VF copies of good books and their fairly low values back in the 80's and early 90's when I was collecting heavily, and many big comic dealers told me the same thing; that in 10 years VF type grades would escalate due to the gap in price between them and NM prices, and their poor treatment compared to NM copies among "serious" comic investors. And they were right, I think.

 

I think NM prices within 5-10 years will be far beyond what many average (and even some above average financial means) people can pay, and that will spur a big growth in the medium grade markets.

[ninanina]

There's a whole world out there that is not collecting comics at this time. E-bay has given collecting a world-wide exposure and it's my understanding that lots of comics are going over-seas.

 

Have we reached the peak? Can't say for sure. But I do remember mom throwing out comics at a time when nobody thought they'd ever be valuable. I remember a time when restored comics were considered very collectable. I remember a time when nobody thought Bronze Age would ever amount to much. Wrightson covers? Who cares. DC 100 page superspectaculars? Yuck. Point is, that attitudes change over time. History shows that whats one man's garbage today, can be worth a whole lot tomorrow.

 

But, I'm not saying your wrong, I'm just not ready to give in the towel.

[comicinvestor-migration]

History shows that whats one man's garbage today, can be worth a whole lot tomorrow.

 

You've hit it on the head there, and that's the major reason why comics will not continue to appreciate like in the past. We've come to a plateau, where adults took over the "new comic" market in the late-80's, there is really no drastic change in the landscape, and what you see is pretty well what you get.

 

IOW, do you really believe there will be another Hulk 181, ASM 129, FF 48, ASM 50, etc. that sits at $1 today and will be worth several thousand in 15-20 years? I don't, and anyone who does is likely on serious drugs.

 

What you see is what you get. If you want profuts, look in the 1980's-90's garbage pail, and not at thousand dollar CGC comics.

[ninanina]

I think I like your point of view but although in your 1st paragraph you're saying comics won't appreciate much, your third paragraph suggests we look in the garbage pail of 80's and 90's comics for tomorrow's treasures.

 

So what you're saying is the stuff tha'ts gone up, is pretty much staying there. The other stuff, that nobody wants right now, is what's going to go up. Right?

 

For anyone that can remember....

 

What was the attitude about FF#1 about 32 years ago. I seem to remember a NM copy was worth about $1000.00 in 1970? Apparently it sat at that price for a long time and was still worth only $1000.00 10 years later. Did people back then also believe as you do now, that it would never be worth much more than that? I am very much hoping that we have some members here that can remember the attitude of "back issue" prices back then and what they felt about "Where do they go from here?" Particularly about FF 1 and only because it stayed at that price for a such long time. And perhaps how does that compare to say, people right now saying FF 48 has peaked?

 

Opinions please....I need to know.

 

[comicinvestor-migration]

I think I like your point of view but although in your 1st paragraph you're saying comics won't appreciate much, your third paragraph suggests we look in the garbage pail of 80's and 90's comics for tomorrow's treasures.

 

If you re-read my original reply, you'll see the word COMIC doesn't appear anywhere.

 

Comics are DOA as an evolving medium, what is key now will be key in the future, with no real change in the landscape. Look at non-comic items in the 1980's and 90's garbage pails for the next big trend.

 

P.S. I sold some of my old Sega Genesis RPGs (used) for more than I originally paid. Sealed video games will be HUGE in 15-20 years, as that's what today's generation will be nostalgic for.

 

And as CGC, PSA, etc. have proven, the act of owning a prized collectible is primary to actually using/reading/holding it, so let's not trot out the old 'who would want to play old games" straw man, just as some geniuses likely thought whod "want to play with old toys".

[COI]

"With the vast majority of CGC 9.4 books dropping steadily, why would 8.0's suddently make a resurgence?"

 

Originally, I was aiming this topic at Gold and early Silver. I don't follow Gold much, but the majority of early Silver books in CGC 9.4 or higher have been steadily rising. In the forseeable future, I can't see the first 20 issues of ASM or FF, JIM #83-100, TOS #39-50, or any tough early silvers in NM going down lower than current fair market value. Between the speculators and serious collectors, the supply just isn't there. Any time one of these books goes up for sale, there are line ups of buyers competing for it, be it collectors, investors or dealers.

 

This is where VF/VF+(slabbed or raw) books come in. For the collector of these books, this range is the perfect alternative, meshing HG with fairly affordable prices. People who want to put together runs will likely turn to these grades. And seeing as how so many VF books are currently selling for under guide, it's very reasonable to see the future potential. People are currently shying away from a solid VF, but that's mostly because of the hype-machine that is CGC 9.4/9.6. As reality begins setting in, demand for this grade range will rise.

[COI]

"No. Further dividing the ranges will only add to the confusion felt by collectors still struggling to figure out what's the difference between 9.2, 9.4, 9.6,..etc. "

 

Who's confused, and what are they confused about? And anyone who can't grasp the scale wouldn't be spending thousands on their collections.

[awe4one]

You're spending thousands maybe but the typical collector isn't. Also, the typical collector can't get their hands around the CGC grading scale. Hell, even people here are baffled by grades some comics receive. Why complicate matters for them? Some around here may want to refine the process but I bet the majority of collectors (and non-dealers) are content keeping the grading scale where it is for the foreseeable future.

 

And what's the point really? Other than trying to apply sliding multiple scales to the 8.X series similar to the 9.X grades? Seems like a another way to further fleece the uninitiated if you ask me.....

 

 

Jim

[Guest]

Hey C.I. welcome back.......I made a small fortune on selling/buying old Nintendo cartridges, and I recently sold most of my rare Genesis games. I agree with you as far as the market booming for these games in the future. Even now its hard to keep up with the demand for them!