Walking Dead #1 Black Label vs White Label - an Answer! UPDATED 2/4/14 2 2

[Erndog]

have to have both, no question about it

 

I mean, I'm not a variant chaser-- especially an error variant chaser, but I've sold both, and have gotten about a 5% premium for the black label. There's no doubt it's the "true" first printing, and that others in some cases are willing to pay a little more for it. If I could turn back time, I would have kept my 9.8 black label for good.

 

Which actually reminds me, I've owned six copies, not five!

 

 

No offense, thats COMPLETE speculation and a 5% bump is completely useless in terms of determining which is more sought after.

 

Way to many factors (time of auction (if it was even an auction?), month, day, year, viewers, scans, avenue sold, what else was avail at the time, etc) to consider a 5% bump material.

[comicsnyc22]

have to have both, no question about it

 

I mean, I'm not a variant chaser-- especially an error variant chaser, but I've sold both, and have gotten about a 5% premium for the black label. There's no doubt it's the "true" first printing, and that others in some cases are willing to pay a little more for it. If I could turn back time, I would have kept my 9.8 black label for good.

 

Which actually reminds me, I've owned six copies, not five!

 

 

No offense, thats COMPLETE speculation and a 5% bump is completely useless in terms of determining which is more sought after.

 

Way to many factors (time of auction (if it was even an auction?), month, day, year, viewers, scans, avenue sold, what else was avail at the time, etc) to consider a 5% bump material.

 

I'm just going off what I know, man. And like i said, whenever one was for sale, the first question is always "is it a black label?!"

[bffnut]

How many people participated, the number of raws out there and the number of books graded by "the other guys" are all factors. The number of resubs is definitely a factor as well, especially with a book this hot. Pressing anyone? This book is hard to get in 9.8. I bought about 10 raws over the years (all advertised nm/m) and got back 2 9.8s. The idea of pressing and resubbing definitely crossed my mind and I'm sure there are a lot of people who took advantage of that service especially once CGC acquired CCS.

 

That's a good point. There is a huge incentive to press this book, given the price difference between 9.6, 9.8, and 9.9.

 

However, let me point this out to you: you said you have purchased 10 raws, only 2 were 9.8s, and that resubbing definitely crossed my mind - however, from the way that you said that, it seems like you never did. So maybe resubbing is not prevalent. I think for the general collecting population, the majority would not resub. Even for slab collectors, I am not confident that resubbing is that prevalent.

[MostAwesomeComics]

How many people participated, the number of raws out there and the number of books graded by "the other guys" are all factors. The number of resubs is definitely a factor as well, especially with a book this hot. Pressing anyone? This book is hard to get in 9.8. I bought about 10 raws over the years (all advertised nm/m) and got back 2 9.8s. The idea of pressing and resubbing definitely crossed my mind and I'm sure there are a lot of people who took advantage of that service especially once CGC acquired CCS.

 

That's a good point. There is a huge incentive to press this book, given the price difference between 9.6, 9.8, and 9.9.

 

However, let me point this out to you: you said you have purchased 10 raws, only 2 were 9.8s, and that resubbing definitely crossed my mind - however, from the way that you said that, it seems like you never did. So maybe resubbing is not prevalent. I think for the general collecting population, the majority would not resub. Even for slab collectors, I am not confident that resubbing is that prevalent.

 

Yeah, I've never resubbed a book or had a book pressed but I have been tempted.

 

 

[dragonmgmt]

I still stick with Kirkman and his observations.

 

A true scientific poll will have at least 2000 results to compare, and with the CPR game, even that number is going to be skewed. How many of those 9.2-9.6 copies got cracked, pressed, and resubbed?

 

This and other reasons are why I stick with Kirkman's statement.

 

 

 

-slym

 

Sticking with Kirkman on this seems a bit silly, especially in light of the data. Kirkman is a writer, not a statistician. He's a guy making an educated guess based on his own anecdotal, not statistical, data. While he's def an authority on many things WD, it doesn't mean that he knows the errors runs on his books.

 

It will be interesting to see if these numbers will be further refined as more data comes in.

Edited November 13, 2013 by dragonmanagement

[slym2none]

He is closer to the printing aspect of it than anyone here, that's for sure. And I am sure, when hearing of this, he didn't just make up numbers out of his head for the sake of fanboys. I'd bet that he actually asked around and told us an answer gotten from Image HQ somewhere. Again, I trust that far more than any fanboy on a website.

 

 

 

 

-slym

[ThoseBackPages]

sounds like someone has a White Label

[bffnut]

[slym2none]

I actually own not one single TWD issue. I am not in "sour grapes" mode, either (I know no one ever said that, just putting it out there.) I am also not discounting any research people have done, it is just skewed by the CPR game, esp. with this title, as well as not knowing the full story. Were the error labels distributed to one section of the country, or widely dispersed? We will never know the amount of these books still in private collections, with the intent of never being sold, so sales numbers, while useful, can't paint a complete picture.

 

Kirkman has access to people that have the data we are looking at. Again, I'd bet $20 he didn't make those numbers up. He asked someone in the know, they answered, he gave us that answer.

 

That's my logic, anyway. It certainly is arguable.

 

:shrug:

 

 

 

-slym

[retrothecollector]

I actually own not one single TWD issue. I am not in "sour grapes" mode, either (I know no one ever said that, just putting it out there.) I am also not discounting any research people have done, it is just skewed by the CPR game, esp. with this title, as well as not knowing the full story. Were the error labels distributed to one section of the country, or widely dispersed? We will never know the amount of these books still in private collections, with the intent of never being sold, so sales numbers, while useful, can't paint a complete picture.

 

Kirkman has access to people that have the data we are looking at. Again, I'd bet $20 he didn't make those numbers up. He asked someone in the know, they answered, he gave us that answer.

 

That's my logic, anyway. It certainly is arguable.

 

:shrug:

 

 

 

-slym

 

That actually makes sense. No doubt though, that what bffnut has figured out is closer to the truth. Unless we can actually have Kirkman on record saying what he mentioned about the print runs are fact.

[battlerob]

He is closer to the printing aspect of it than anyone here, that's for sure. And I am sure, when hearing of this, he didn't just make up numbers out of his head for the sake of fanboys. I'd bet that he actually asked around and told us an answer gotten from Image HQ somewhere. Again, I trust that far more than any fanboy on a website.

 

 

 

 

-slym

 

 

Sorry but bffnut is actually correct. It doesn't matter what anyone says, including creators, companies, etc. There has to be data to back it up. What bffnut did is used real numbers. He used a formula to calculate these numbers which also included an error margin. This is the way statistics are calculate with limited data, this is how they do polls.

 

For instance when they run surveys like in politics. With limited data, they can calculate pretty accurately what a nation says without having to do a survey on every single person in the entire country. Like bffnut said, it's about the marging of error you are comfortable with.

 

Pretty straight forward stuff, i'm sure you can search online about data/statistics.

 

Btw, I'm in no way talking about black label vs white label value. Although i did pay premium for a black label.

 

 

[slym2none]

As soon as you can definitively tell me how many of the CGC submissions were CPR'd, and tell me how many copies of TWD #1 are still in private collections, I will recant my statements here.

 

 

 

 

-slym

[bffnut]

[slym2none]

:shrug:

 

 

 

-slym

[dragonmgmt]

As soon as you can definitively tell me how many of the CGC submissions were CPR'd, and tell me how many copies of TWD #1 are still in private collections, I will recant my statements here.

 

 

 

 

-slym

 

You're asking for population data. Statistics, by definition, is concerned with sample data that can then be applied to the population. If we had population data, we wouldn't need statistics. I think you're missing the point entirely.

 

And, as bffnut gathers more data, his findings become more and more compelling. Think about how much data would have to be found in order to support Kirkman's #s vs bffnut's #s.

 

(Hey, bffnut, can you work that up? How many new data points would have to be recorded in order to support Kirkman's estimates?)

 

The point is, you're relying on a very informed source, but that informed source is still making an educated guess. bffnut's #s may not be the exact truth, but a 95% CI for this type of work is about as good as it gets in academia and business.

Edited November 14, 2013 by dragonmanagement

[loadstone]

I like statistics and appreciate the effort you're taking on here. Got one for you to add.

Black Label 9.8 cert# 0207254002

 

I'll contribute some more numbers later if not already on your list. My LCS actually has 3 for sale. 2 are CGC-U 9.8 white and black and the 3rd is a raw white label with a couple of barely visible NCB spine ticks which may grade 9.4-9.6ish that he's selling for high CGC graded prices. FYI: he's selling the black for around $3200 and the white for $2800 and also believes the Black to be more rare.

 

What I'd love to know is how many of the 18 graded 9.9 are Black Label vs White label. All of the ones I've ever seen go for sale on ebay or on any of the auction sites are White labels. Since 2011, there's been 3 9.9 certs that keep getting resold. Since there's no 10 yet, were it be that the black is more "rare" I'd imagine a 9.9 black label for sale would command the higher prices of the 2 labels.

 

[maloney414]

He is closer to the printing aspect of it than anyone here, that's for sure. And I am sure, when hearing of this, he didn't just make up numbers out of his head for the sake of fanboys. I'd bet that he actually asked around and told us an answer gotten from Image HQ somewhere. Again, I trust that far more than any fanboy on a website.

 

 

 

 

-slym

 

 

I actually own not one single TWD issue. I am not in "sour grapes" mode, either (I know no one ever said that, just putting it out there.) I am also not discounting any research people have done, it is just skewed by the CPR game, esp. with this title, as well as not knowing the full story. Were the error labels distributed to one section of the country, or widely dispersed? We will never know the amount of these books still in private collections, with the intent of never being sold, so sales numbers, while useful, can't paint a complete picture.

 

Kirkman has access to people that have the data we are looking at. Again, I'd bet $20 he didn't make those numbers up. He asked someone in the know, they answered, he gave us that answer.

 

That's my logic, anyway. It certainly is arguable.

 

:shrug:

 

 

 

-slym

 

Have you ever met Kirkman??? You better rethink that bet.

 

Let me tell you, he is a funny hilarious dude who loves to joke with people. He is totally capable of just making the numbers up. Just to mess with people.

 

But in all seriousness, when I talked to him about this years ago he told me he was guessing/approximating what the numbers were. Kirkman doesn't know the exact proportion. For that matter, no one else does either. No one ever counted them. There is no one for him to ask. They had no idea anybody would ever give a in the future.

 

But it's pretty darn obvious to anyone with a clear rational mind there are less black versions than white. It doesn't matter if you're looking at registry pics, the sales forum, eBay, etc.... there have always been less black versions. Always. And it's been consistently like that for YEARS. Not for a few days here and there, but consistently for YEARS. People who don't see that are either owners of the white version trying to carnival bark, or people who have not followed the book and done their research.

 

 

[battlerob]

As soon as you can definitively tell me how many of the CGC submissions were CPR'd, and tell me how many copies of TWD #1 are still in private collections, I will recant my statements here.

 

 

 

 

-slym

 

 

As dragonmanagement said, you are completely missing the point. It's impossible to have the exact number, best thing that anyone can get is an accurate, educate guess bassed on limited but reliable data. That's how statistics work.

 

Since several have tried to explain how statistics work, and you still argue against it, you probably won't ever get it. Based on the data though, I would have to say the numbers are there to support less black labels vs white labels, in fact, the numbers are not even close to 50/50 black labels vs white labels.

[slym2none]

He is closer to the printing aspect of it than anyone here, that's for sure. And I am sure, when hearing of this, he didn't just make up numbers out of his head for the sake of fanboys. I'd bet that he actually asked around and told us an answer gotten from Image HQ somewhere. Again, I trust that far more than any fanboy on a website.

 

 

 

I actually own not one single TWD issue. I am not in "sour grapes" mode, either (I know no one ever said that, just putting it out there.) I am also not discounting any research people have done, it is just skewed by the CPR game, esp. with this title, as well as not knowing the full story. Were the error labels distributed to one section of the country, or widely dispersed? We will never know the amount of these books still in private collections, with the intent of never being sold, so sales numbers, while useful, can't paint a complete picture.

 

Kirkman has access to people that have the data we are looking at. Again, I'd bet $20 he didn't make those numbers up. He asked someone in the know, they answered, he gave us that answer.

 

That's my logic, anyway. It certainly is arguable.

 

:shrug:

 

Have you ever met Kirkman??? You better rethink that bet.

 

Let me tell you, he is a funny hilarious dude who loves to joke with people. He is totally capable of just making the numbers up. Just to mess with people.

 

But in all seriousness, when I talked to him about this years ago he told me he was guessing/approximating what the numbers were. Kirkman doesn't know the exact proportion. For that matter, no one else does either. No one ever counted them. There is no one for him to ask. They had no idea anybody would ever give a in the future.

 

But it's pretty darn obvious to anyone with a clear rational mind there are less black versions than white. It doesn't matter if you're looking at registry pics, the sales forum, eBay, etc.... there have always been less black versions. Always. And it's been consistently like that for YEARS. Not for a few days here and there, but consistently for YEARS. People who don't see that are either owners of the white version trying to carnival bark, or people who have not followed the book and done their research.

 

 

I have never said there weren't less. I think 35-40% of the print run is "less."

 

:shrug:

 

 

 

-slym

[slym2none]

As soon as you can definitively tell me how many of the CGC submissions were CPR'd, and tell me how many copies of TWD #1 are still in private collections, I will recant my statements here.

 

 

 

As dragonmanagement said, you are completely missing the point. It's impossible to have the exact number, best thing that anyone can get is an accurate, educate guess bassed on limited but reliable data. That's how statistics work.

 

Since several have tried to explain how statistics work, and you still argue against it, you probably won't ever get it. Based on the data though, I would have to say the numbers are there to support less black labels vs white labels, in fact, the numbers are not even close to 50/50 black labels vs white labels.

 

I have a hard time taking anything seriously that has, at best, 20% of the known copies as its sample for survey. I know you are extrapolating using that data, I just don't trust that extrapolation. Same as I don't trust anyone telling me that "America wants X because our poll of .001% of the population says so." I trust the 20% population data more, and I don't trust it at all.

 

 

And as I had to re-iterate in my last post above, I have never said there weren't less. If I say I agree with Kirkman, then I am saying there are less black versions than white. Jeez.

 

 

 

-slym