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Giant Size X-Men #1 and/or X-Men 94 Club
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1,213 posts in this topic

The last five sales on GPA for this book in 9.8 have been a steady trend line going down, with the last two realized prices being $38,400 (November 19) and $37,000 (December 18th).

I was in the market for this book earlier in the year, but when the irrational exuberance hit, I noped right out and made different plans. 

It definitely seems to be coming back down to earth now.

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On 12/31/2021 at 10:57 AM, Off Panel said:

The last five sales on GPA for this book in 9.8 have been a steady trend line going down, with the last two realized prices being $38,400 (November 19) and $37,000 (December 18th).

I was in the market for this book earlier in the year, but when the irrational exuberance hit, I noped right out and made different plans. 

It definitely seems to be coming back down to earth now.

Could just be the December to Feb slump that hits every year. I imagine first hint of X-Men in the MCU and it explodes again. 

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On 12/31/2021 at 2:58 PM, Chillax23 said:

Could just be the December to Feb slump that hits every year. I imagine first hint of X-Men in the MCU and it explodes again. 

That may be a factor, but it seems the plunge started back in the summer. Here are the last six sales from GPA:

 

Jun-17: $72,000 (peak GSM)

Jul-25: $49,200  (down $22,800)

Sep-04: $45,000 (down another $4,200)

Nov-18: $43,200 (down another $1,800)

Nov-19: $38,400 (down another $4,800)

Dec-18: $37,000 (down another $1,400)

The December to February slump may be influencing prices, in which case we could have another two months of decline in front of us. If it were to follow the same trajectory, we’d be looking at GSM 1 in 9.8 selling around $29,000 at the end of February, which would be a respectable $9,000 lift above where it was this time last year. Not too shabby.
 

Or it might be that the Bitcoin kiddies have exited the comic book market to go disrupt the next shiny thing. (Video games? NFTs? NFTs of video games?)

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On 12/31/2021 at 2:59 PM, Off Panel said:

That may be a factor, but it seems the plunge started back in the summer. Here are the last six sales from GPA:

 

Jun-17: $72,000 (peak GSM)

Jul-25: $49,200  (down $22,800)

Sep-04: $45,000 (down another $4,200)

Nov-18: $43,200 (down another $1,800)

Nov-19: $38,400 (down another $4,800)

Dec-18: $37,000 (down another $1,400)

Looks like you are missing a couple of data point here:

ComicConnect auctioned off a CGC 9.8 for $56,222 on June 24th or just a week after that $72K outlier sale.  (thumbsu

The other one was a Heritage auction for $66K a couple days later on June 26th, but then this was for a fugly Signature Series copy smudged by Stan Lee and Len Wein.  CGC 9.8 my foot, as I personally think that CGC should downgrade severly for these books when they have been defaced to this extent by these so-called fugly smudged "signatures" if you can even call it that as they are a definite eyesore:  :fear:  :p

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Edited by lou_fine
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On 12/31/2021 at 6:52 PM, lou_fine said:

Looks like you are missing a couple of data point here:

ComicConnect auctioned off a CGC 9.8 for $56,222 on June 24th or just a week after that $72K outlier sale.  (thumbsu

The other one was a Heritage auction for $66K a couple days later on June 26th, but then this was for a fugly Signature Series copy smudged by Stan Lee and Len Wein.  CGC 9.8 my foot, as I personally think that CGC should downgrade severly for these books when they have been defaced to this extent by these so-called fugly smudged "signatures" if you can even call it that as they are a definite eyesore:  :fear:  :p

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Thanks for filling in the gaps.

I knew there were a couple of big sales I was missing, but I’m surprised the $66K Heritage sale isn’t in the GPA data. I think of Heritage as sharing all their data with GPA. (Is that indicative of a sale that may have been walked back, or just a longer than usual lag in reporting?)

It sounds like all the big sales ($50K+) are still clustered in June with the price eroding ever since.

GSX #1 is a great book and it was probably undervalued when it was selling in the teens, but those sales at $60k and $70k + were real head scratchers for all the reasons you listed.

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On 1/1/2022 at 2:02 PM, Off Panel said:

Thanks for filling in the gaps.

I knew there were a couple of big sales I was missing, but I’m surprised the $66K Heritage sale isn’t in the GPA data. I think of Heritage as sharing all their data with GPA. (Is that indicative of a sale that may have been walked back, or just a longer than usual lag in reporting?)

It sounds like all the big sales ($50K+) are still clustered in June with the price eroding ever since.

GSX #1 is a great book and it was probably undervalued when it was selling in the teens, but those sales at $60k and $70k + were real head scratchers for all the reasons you listed.

The $66K HA sale is included - it's an SS by Lee/Wein so separated into its own row in the analysis. Is there a chance you have the SS filter off and hence aren't seeing the signature series data?

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On 12/31/2021 at 10:38 PM, gpanalysis said:

The $66K HA sale is included - it's an SS by Lee/Wein so separated into its own row in the analysis. Is there a chance you have the SS filter off and hence aren't seeing the signature series data?

Greatly appreciate your prompt response here and fantastic to see that you are keeping on top of these things for us.  :applause:

Anyways, just wondering about some of these auction results that are sometimes nnot being captured.  Although we all know about CL not providing their results to both you and your competitor, I thought this was not the case with CC.  Especially when we can go onto the CC website and see all of their historical auction results in their archives as they are loaded virtually immediately when an auction ends, yet they do not seem to show up consistently in the auction tracking websites like yours.  (shrug)  

Just wondering why since they all seem to be their for public consumption right in their auction archives?  ???

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On 1/1/2022 at 6:29 PM, lou_fine said:

Greatly appreciate your prompt response here and fantastic to see that you are keeping on top of these things for us.  :applause:

Anyways, just wondering about some of these auction results that are sometimes nnot being captured.  Although we all know about CL not providing their results to both you and your competitor, I thought this was not the case with CC.  Especially when we can go onto the CC website and see all of their historical auction results in their archives as they are loaded virtually immediately when an auction ends, yet they do not seem to show up consistently in the auction tracking websites like yours.  (shrug)  

Just wondering why since they all seem to be their for public consumption right in their auction archives?  ???

My understanding is that although they appear as sold, sometimes the transactions don't complete. They do remove them eventually, but there are some that remain even though they did not complete.  

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On 12/31/2021 at 11:45 PM, gpanalysis said:

My understanding is that although they appear as sold, sometimes the transactions don't complete. They do remove them eventually, but there are some that remain even though they did not complete.  

Greatly appreciate your response here, but I find that kind of hard to believe because some of the missing sales (at least on the other guy's site) are their record setting ones which they have hyped up afterwards and also shows up in their summary to Overstreet the following year. (shrug)

In addition, if the sales did not complete, you would expect to see at least some of them to come back in the following auction or on a competing auction website.  Is it possible that it's due to their crapola revamp they did resulting in possible communications interface problems?  hm

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On 1/1/2022 at 7:26 PM, lou_fine said:

Greatly appreciate your response here, but I find that kind of hard to believe because some of the missing sales (at least on the other guy's site) are their record setting ones which they have hyped up afterwards and also shows up in their summary to Overstreet the following year. (shrug)

In addition, if the sales did not complete, you would expect to see at least some of them to come back in the following auction or on a competing auction website.  Is it possible that it's due to their crapola revamp they did resulting in possible communications interface problems?  hm

May well be - we report what they share with us

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On 1/1/2022 at 1:38 AM, gpanalysis said:

The $66K HA sale is included - it's an SS by Lee/Wein so separated into its own row in the analysis. Is there a chance you have the SS filter off and hence aren't seeing the signature series data?

That is exactly what happened. I toggled the “Signed” filter and the book showed up. Put this one down to “user error.” doh!

(By the way, I really like the filter options since I don’t have much interest in signed, restored, or qualified books. I just need to remember not to filter when I do a broader analysis.)

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