THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB
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On 11/19/2022 at 12:35 PM, KCOComics said:

You have to wonder where a high grade Bat1 would stack up against a high grade AF15.

most recent public sale in 9.4

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and if you counter Bats1 was highest grade then pit a Bats1 9.6 vs AF15 9.6 and let's see...

Edited by Gotham Kid
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On 11/19/2022 at 7:58 AM, Gotham Kid said:

most recent public sale in 9.4

image.thumb.png.ba4a460cc01b71f0d02784b3527b0d66.png

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and if you counter Bats1 was highest grade then pit a Bats1 9.6 vs AF15 9.6 and let's see...

 

I'm actually even thinking a step down now. How would AF15 compare to an equivalent grade Suspense 3 or Tec 1?  Marvel Mystery 1? Much much lower supply obviously, but I imagine those other top tier GA books would give AF15 a run for it's money.

With that said, it's fair to call AF15 the undisputed King of the SA (in terms of value). 

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On 11/19/2022 at 7:35 AM, KCOComics said:

 

I wonder if it is the #3 book in the hobby? 

In terms of importance, it's right there. AC1, Tec27, AF15, FF1. And there are others I'm sure you could make a strong case for, but those are top of mind for hero books. 

In terms of value, we saw the $5M+ Sup1 sale. You have to wonder where a high grade Bat1 would stack up against a high grade AF15.

Probably a moot point for 99.5% of us. 

To me it is #3 and to others it could land at another rank. 1st appearance to me are more important like say AC1 over Superman 1 and to me AF15 over Superman 1 any day. Yes price wise it is not #3.

I see it like this TEC27 then AC1 then AF15. I prefer Batman and Spiderman over Superman but AC1 is what it is to the hobby. And I truly doubt Superman is more popular in 2022 than Batman or Spiderman. If AF15 was just as rare as those 2 books it would be worth a whole lot more.

I wonder if there was say 5000-10 000 (like AF15) AC1 and TEC27 left for collectors how much these 2 books would be worth versus what less than 100 that currently exist.

Edited by Batmanis#1
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On 11/19/2022 at 3:36 PM, Batmanis#1 said:

To me it is #3 and to others it could land at another rank. 1st appearance to me are more important like say AC1 over Superman 1 and to me AF15 over Superman 1 any day. Yes price wise it is not #3.

I see it like this TEC27 then AC1 then AF15. I prefer Batman and Spiderman over Superman but AC1 is what it is to the hobby. And I truly doubt Superman is more popular in 2022 than Batman or Spiderman. If AF15 was just as rare as those 2 books it would be worth a whole lot more.

O wonder if there was say 5000-10 000 (like AF15) AC1 and TEC27 left for collectors how much these 2 books would be worth versus what less than 100 that currently exist.

I can agree with that.  It's in the conversation for the most important comic book of all time. I think there are really 4 books in that conversation. AC1, Tec27, AF15 and FF1.  

There are others that have a lot of historical significance, like Famous Funnies 1, crime doesn't pay 22, and Young Romance #1.  But as much as collectors have come to appreciate other genres, generally speaking what brought us all to the hobby,  were the super heros. 

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Well pulled mine (CGC 6.5) off from CL will be a member for a few more years till things pick up again. Not selling it at these prices simply not worth it. I rather hold on. One thing I have learned over the decades another high will come.

Edited by Batmanis#1
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On 12/19/2022 at 10:12 PM, Batmanis#1 said:

Well pulled mine (CGC 6.5) off from CL will be a member for a few more years till things pick up again. Not selling it at these prices simply not worth it. I rather hold on. One thing I have learned over the decades another high will come.

6.5 gang!!!!  IF HE'S NOT SELLIN,  I'M NOT SELLIN!!!!!

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I hope others like flippers sell as I’m trying to catch some great deals.. might try to buy a upgrade copy but been trying for a hulk 181 since the prices have come down quite a bit.

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On 12/20/2022 at 10:17 PM, Krismusic said:

I hope others like flippers sell as I’m trying to catch some great deals.. might try to buy a upgrade copy but been trying for a hulk 181 since the prices have come down quite a bit.

I agree. Seems like a good one time to pick up several of those formerly hot titles. X1, Hulk 181, GSX1, X4. (Allot of Xs in those titles).  

 

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On 12/19/2022 at 10:12 PM, Batmanis#1 said:

Well pulled mine (CGC 6.5) off from CL will be a member for a few more years till things pick up again. Not selling it at these prices simply not worth it. I rather hold on. One thing I have learned over the decades another high will come.

Now if more people thought like you, we wouldn't have these drastic price decreases for AF15

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On 12/22/2022 at 10:23 AM, DT0428 said:

Now if more people thought like you, we wouldn't have these drastic price decreases for AF15

Yeah people need to start using buy it now more on their mega key books and stick to their price or close to it. Stop selling such important books at whatever price in such bad times as now. The sun will shine again on books like AF15 just wait it out if you can.

Edited by Batmanis#1
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On 12/22/2022 at 7:23 AM, DT0428 said:

Now if more people thought like you, we wouldn't have these drastic price decreases for AF15

This is just the other side of the hill we just climbed.    Some would say (I am saying it) that irrational market forces drove the COST of many books beyond their sustainable valuation.    All the things that have been discussed on the boards before - excess liquidity, gamblers mentality, FOMO, etc - lead to irrational exuberance and frothy markets.   It is a common cycle in all markets and in all of those cases - the market forces always ultimately pull valuations back down to trendlines.

Below is a look at an 11 year period of AF #15 in 4.0 - average across all sales in that year.     The book was enjoying a more than respectable 17% CAGR between 2012 and 2016 and then hit an exceptionally nice growth period in 2017 and 2018.    The 2012-2018 CAGR was 22.5% which a truly great performance.    There was a slight two year downturn before the sonic boom of 2021 where the average hit an astonishing $51.7k.    The trough in 2020 was a May sale of $19K and the 2021 peak was $75k in Oct - that is a 294% increase in just 17 months.    You will just never be able to convince me that there was enough of a permanent change in the make-up or volume of the market participants that would support this at a sustained level.  

The last sale of a 4.0 was in November at $31.2k which would still give a 2012-2022 CAGR of a very healthy 13%.   I am not predicting anything and markets can always over-correct - but a $31k value on that book starts to make a bit more sense based on the past decade.   

And there are as many different reasons to sell as there are owners - they all have agency and are acting in their own best interest given their particular circumstances (life-change, need for capital, disaster recovery, medical, long-term care, starting a business, etc, etc) 

 

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off the CL exchange in the last day or two. a very healthy sale of 78k for a 4.0, largely because it has white pages. yet more proof that with big books, white pages are by far the most desirable and valuable, all other things being equal in presentation. especially for af15, where it's very uncommon to see a white page copy. 

 

af15.jpg

Edited by alexgross.com
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On 12/23/2022 at 8:54 AM, alexgross.com said:

off the CL exchange in the last day or two. a very healthy sale of 78k for a 4.0, largely because it has white pages. yet more proof that with big books, white pages are by far the most desirable and valuable, all other things being equal in presentation. especially for af15, where it's very uncommon to see a white page copy. 

I guess my question would be this: which is more desirable, a CGC 4.0 with white pages and Marvel chipping, or a CGC 4.0 with off-white pages with no Marvel chipping?

Since I would never see the interior pages, I would choose the latter. But that's just me.

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On 12/23/2022 at 6:54 AM, alexgross.com said:

off the CL exchange in the last day or two. a very healthy sale of 78k for a 4.0, largely because it has white pages. yet more proof that with big books, white pages are by far the most desirable and valuable, all other things being equal in presentation. especially for af15, where it's very uncommon to see a white page copy. 

 

af15.jpg

I would be shocked if that actually sold for $78k.    It says sale pending but that does not mean that the seller didn’t accept an offer for a different amount.     That would be a new record for a 4.0 and double the sale price over the last 5 months.    If someone is willing to pay that much of a premium for white pages I need to list my FF#1 and Hulk #1 today.   
 

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Edited by DC#
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A very healthy sale in the current market.  When a WP goes for more, the PQ is often the prime suspect and rightly so.  This book looks nice, too, with not much marvel chipping. Congrats to the buyer!

The last 5 GPA sales of AF15 in 4.0 (including this book on Sept 21) is interesting.  I added PQ info in brackets:

Nov-27    $31200    2707490001    [off white]
Oct-30    $36000    4076204002     [off/white to white]
Sep-21    $41400    0184053001    [this book, white]  7.8% > 9/10 sale; 6.2% > 8/29 sale. 
Sep-10    $38400    2707490001    [off/white]  
Aug-29    $39000    4048269001    [off white]   

So second time's the charm for this book!  Part of it could be that premium-fetching books sometimes need to have the right buyers participating in the sale (like sig series books, whose aficionados also tend to pay up when present at auctions).  This time the right buyers participated?  And a buyer (thinking long-term and/or a WP aficionado) might be happy to nab this specimen as it remained within the recent historical price range for a 4.0 (the high was $75K in Oct2021).  Without that history, it would be more suprising.    

Edited by Pantodude
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