First Wolverine Page sells for $657,000!

[Bronty]

Im not saying it won't. Just disagreeing with the idea that any gain on a collectible is gravy. At some dollar figure, whether its 657k or a much smaller number on a much smaller budget, you'd like the value to do at least not be a bad investment.

[delekkerste]

I was just reminded of a mother potentiality: the kids of the moguls. Not saying this will happen in our fields, but right now in Hollywood Megan Ellison is the great Gravy Boat everybody wants a check from… there are and will be other kids with lots if dough they didn't earn, that won't be so worried about "bad collectibles investments"

 

I know Im sounding like the perma bulls. But Im not. just exploring avenues by which the money MAY come… at the TOP end.

 

We've heard similar arguments for the current generation so many times and it just hasn't come to fruition. Just think about all the Gen Xers who have made it big in Hollywood, Wall Street, Silicon Valley, etc. and look at how few of them in the grand scheme of things have migrated to our hobby. And these are people who grew up with the material! And who were nerdy and actually might have actually been comic geeks at one point in their lives! If it hasn't happened in numbers with this generation, there's no reason to believe it will happen with the next to a greater extent.

 

As for Megan Ellison, she makes movies starring A-list actors. Because she can. And hanging out with ScarJo and Bradley Cooper is cool and why wouldn't you want a piece of that if you've got millions/billions of dollars at your disposal. Hanging out at the Metropolis offices with me and Hari? Not so cool (except maybe to people who frequent comic art forums ). Yeah, this hobby had ER for a while, but he really seems to be the exception that proves the rule.

[Bronty]

Hanging out at the Metropolis offices with me and Hari? Not so cool

 

[Bronty]

Yeah, this hobby had ER for a while, but he really seems to be the exception that proves the rule.

 

Is he done? I hadn't heard anything out of / about him in a long while and figured he was kind of losing interest but hadn't heard anything

[Aman619]

We've heard similar arguments for the current generation so many times and it just hasn't come to fruition. Just think about all the Gen Xers who have made it big in Hollywood, Wall Street, Silicon Valley, etc. and look at how few of them in the grand scheme of things have migrated to our hobby.

 

 

a "few" is all Im predicting.

 

i win!

[malvin]

The recent issue of Financial Analyst Journal has an article on this topic (Investing in Emotional Assets)

 

I'm surprised no one mentioned it yet!

 

Link to Summary

 

Malvin

[heartened]

Art represents no such claim - it's all psychology and the buying power of collectors. Psychology has somehow rationalized in many cases a 2-3 fold increase in just the past 3 years and a 3-5 fold increase over the past five for top-tier material. If you think this is business as usual per the last 30-50 years and that we're at a new permanent plateau of OA prosperity, I'm going to have to disagree (though I remain gentlemanly agnostic on what happens in the near-term).

Bingo! It's all about psychology, and I think you underestimate just how flexible the human mind is when it comes to benchmarking and making valuations based off of new benchmarks, even though all of your assumptions in your own discussions of this piece show that your internal benchmarks have completely recalibrated.

 

Just think 10 years ago how unfathomable would it have been to pay $200K, let alone $657K, for the Hulk 180 page? But because we've all become so used to crazy prices and reset our mental benchmarks accordingly, $200K now would've been unfathomably low for the piece (so much so that I put in a bid of $210K knowing I had ZERO chance of winning).

 

I have no doubt that when the $1 million mark is finally publicly broken for American OA, it will not stand alone as a total outlier for decades like Bob Beamon's long jump record, but more like Roger Bannister's breaking the 4-minute barrier. It'll happen again and again and become normal. Just like once the $1 million mark was broken in comics.

 

And what happens if you don't make the mental leap? You fall by the wayside. Just like a certain manager of a certain major English football club whose team has fallen by the wayside, relatively speaking, because he's still living in 1998 and wants to pay $10K for something when everyone else around him who's not an old curmudgeon can see that $100K has long since become the new $10K.

 

Great, great post. There was a time when people said 1K was the limit from OA, then 10K, then 100K, and now 300-500K. At every point, most well known collectors felt we were at our peak. It is true, then, that we all recalibrate as new data and price points arrive and are digested. In this context, I think it is most unwise to keep on predicting doom and gloom as much as it is to predict a robust continued rise. But, the fact remains that we only have proof, so far, for the latter, and very little price points showing any decline in any area of this market (so far). Gene's argument that we are now hitting a "too high" price point, quite honestly, is coming because this is the price point where he has also had to take pause. I feel the same exact way. But the price point was 1K for some, 10K for many others, or 100K, etc. There is nothing special about the "new" highest sale than the "old" highest sale, except it is hitting most of us where it hurts now.

 

But, unlike some, I do not think this hurts the hobby at all. On the contrary, we are just now developing a mature market, where people have to come in at different levels. New comic book collectors by and large don't come in thinking they can find and afford AF 15, Action 1, etc. - they set their sites on second, third, fourth tier issues, and the hobby has over time identified those issues, and people collecting those issues have the same sense of pride in finding those books that the richest collectors have in finding an Action 1. As time goes by, OA collectors will also find this tier system, and collectors will happily segregate to the tier they can afford and, yes, find immense pleasure in their own sand box.

 

Like Felix, I continue to buy 1-5K pieces as much as I buy 50-100K pieces, and surprisingly find them both equally exciting. I bought that super Michael Golden page for between 5-10K and have another piece coming in soon (that I will share when it arrives) that is a more iconic and expensive cover. I can live in both worlds, and others I suspect will too. So, yes, we can go "backwards" in our collecting, because, guess what, both the 100K piece and the 5K piece are one-of-a kind pieces that you simply can't compare to each other. That's the beauty of this hobby, and why someone who owns a 5K piece should and does feel just as proud of their acquisition as the owner of the Hulk 180 page. The owner of the Hulk 180 page, for all his wealth, still can't buy the 5K page you have That's yours, and yours alone.

 

 

[Bronty]

If I had a choice to own either the

 

Hulk 180 page or Wagner example at $657,000 what ever the grade may be

 

I would take the HULK 180 page any day of the week.

 

 

And I see that according to Heritage's newsletter that you put your money where your mouth was. Big congrats!

 

 

[Bronty]

 

On the contrary, we are just now developing a mature market, where people have to come in at different levels. New comic book collectors by and large don't come in thinking they can find and afford AF 15, Action 1, etc. - they set their sites on second, third, fourth tier issues, and the hobby has over time identified those issues, and people collecting those issues have the same sense of pride in finding those books that the richest collectors have in finding an Action 1. As time goes by, OA collectors will also find this tier system, and collectors will happily segregate to the tier they can afford and, yes, find immense pleasure in their own sand box.

 

 

 

Interesting thoughts, Hari

[jjeanius]

Art represents no such claim - it's all psychology and the buying power of collectors. Psychology has somehow rationalized in many cases a 2-3 fold increase in just the past 3 years and a 3-5 fold increase over the past five for top-tier material. If you think this is business as usual per the last 30-50 years and that we're at a new permanent plateau of OA prosperity, I'm going to have to disagree (though I remain gentlemanly agnostic on what happens in the near-term).

Bingo! It's all about psychology, and I think you underestimate just how flexible the human mind is when it comes to benchmarking and making valuations based off of new benchmarks, even though all of your assumptions in your own discussions of this piece show that your internal benchmarks have completely recalibrated.

 

Just think 10 years ago how unfathomable would it have been to pay $200K, let alone $657K, for the Hulk 180 page? But because we've all become so used to crazy prices and reset our mental benchmarks accordingly, $200K now would've been unfathomably low for the piece (so much so that I put in a bid of $210K knowing I had ZERO chance of winning).

 

I have no doubt that when the $1 million mark is finally publicly broken for American OA, it will not stand alone as a total outlier for decades like Bob Beamon's long jump record, but more like Roger Bannister's breaking the 4-minute barrier. It'll happen again and again and become normal. Just like once the $1 million mark was broken in comics.

 

And what happens if you don't make the mental leap? You fall by the wayside. Just like a certain manager of a certain major English football club whose team has fallen by the wayside, relatively speaking, because he's still living in 1998 and wants to pay $10K for something when everyone else around him who's not an old curmudgeon can see that $100K has long since become the new $10K.

 

Great, great post. There was a time when people said 1K was the limit from OA, then 10K, then 100K, and now 300-500K. At every point, most well known collectors felt we were at our peak. It is true, then, that we all recalibrate as new data and price points arrive and are digested. In this context, I think it is most unwise to keep on predicting doom and gloom as much as it is to predict a robust continued rise. But, the fact remains that we only have proof, so far, for the latter, and very little price points showing any decline in any area of this market (so far). Gene's argument that we are now hitting a "too high" price point, quite honestly, is coming because this is the price point where he has also had to take pause. I feel the same exact way. But the price point was 1K for some, 10K for many others, or 100K, etc. There is nothing special about the "new" highest sale than the "old" highest sale, except it is hitting most of us where it hurts now.

 

But, unlike some, I do not think this hurts the hobby at all. On the contrary, we are just now developing a mature market, where people have to come in at different levels. New comic book collectors by and large don't come in thinking they can find and afford AF 15, Action 1, etc. - they set their sites on second, third, fourth tier issues, and the hobby has over time identified those issues, and people collecting those issues have the same sense of pride in finding those books that the richest collectors have in finding an Action 1. As time goes by, OA collectors will also find this tier system, and collectors will happily segregate to the tier they can afford and, yes, find immense pleasure in their own sand box.

 

Like Felix, I continue to buy 1-5K pieces as much as I buy 50-100K pieces, and surprisingly find them both equally exciting. I bought that super Michael Golden page for between 5-10K and have another piece coming in soon (that I will share when it arrives) that is a more iconic and expensive cover. I can live in both worlds, and others I suspect will too. So, yes, we can go "backwards" in our collecting, because, guess what, both the 100K piece and the 5K piece are one-of-a kind pieces that you simply can't compare to each other. That's the beauty of this hobby, and why someone who owns a 5K piece should and does feel just as proud of their acquisition as the owner of the Hulk 180 page. The owner of the Hulk 180 page, for all his wealth, still can't buy the 5K page you have That's yours, and yours alone.

 

 

Excellent post, Hari.

 

I would take it one step further by saying that collecting modern OA (as opposed to vintage OA) isn't just another sandbox - it's practically another sport. With vintage art, the main draw is nostalgia for the art we grew up with as young comic book fans. With modern art, there is no nostalgia involved, but there is the added thrill of feeling somehow involved/invested in the future of a book that you enjoy, that you can still watch unfold before you month after month. You can support the creators as the series develops, and collect the art over the span of the series. For me, this is a different type of "thrill".

 

Modern OA is also generally much, MUCH more affordable...in the same way that collecting copper or bronze comics is much more affordable than collecting gold or silver books.

 

And...while both vintage and modern art appeal to me, I find myself gravitating more and more towards modern OA, perhaps as a response to the ever-increasing prices for vintage art. I would never consider myself a high-end collector, though I have on occasion gone to the mat (and emptied the wallet) to snag a piece that hit all the right nostalgia notes for me. Lately, though, it's getting much more difficult to rationalize these larger purchases, especially when weighed against the buying power of that same amount of money in the modern OA market, and the commensurate amount of enjoyment attached to those purchases. While a choice vintage piece might cost 100x as much as a nice modern example, I find that in most cases I get much more enjoyment out of several nice modern examples than one blue chip vintage piece.

 

Of course, your mileage may vary...but I find this is a direct result of the exponential growth on vintage art (i.e., it was a much easier sell when the multiplier was 10x rather than 100x). I guess we have just passed my personal tipping point.

 

I would also add that there isn't the same sticker-shock backlash in the modern OA threads. And...not surprisingly, the people that find the current prices so offensive are those that have been along for the ride the longest, and seen the sharpest appreciation. I imagine this is similar to collecting comics in the early '70s when an Action 1 could be had for less than $1000...and now it can be $2M. Sadly, not everyone can own an Action 1 or a Tec 27 (or a Hulk 180 Wolverine page)...and the monetary growth of the market is just reflecting this fact. As was previously mentioned, the OA market is just now reaching a certain level of maturity.

[mister_not_so_nice]

I guess what I'm saying is that, at some point, I fully expect that a lot of people, including myself, will very likely be sitting on art that's not worth as much as it once was. But, it's not like that art will necessarily be available for purchase at those prices. I think most collectors recognize that and realize that, if they want to own something desirable, they have to pay up for it when it becomes available, because they may never get another shot at it even if the overall market cools off in the future.

 

This has always been the case.

It's an agonizing wait after an auction ends until the piece shows up on CAF (if ever). Once it appears it goes into a CAF that will give you one of two reactions:

1) Well, that piece isn't going anywhere for a long time

2) Oh, good, he'll be selling that page in about six months and I'll get another shot at it.

 

 

[chefkv]

I wonder what Mr. Fish has to say???

[Bird]

I wonder what Mr. Fish has to say???

 

 

 

[delekkerste]

Great, great post. There was a time when people said 1K was the limit from OA, then 10K, then 100K, and now 300-500K. At every point, most well known collectors felt we were at our peak. It is true, then, that we all recalibrate as new data and price points arrive and are digested. In this context, I think it is most unwise to keep on predicting doom and gloom as much as it is to predict a robust continued rise. But, the fact remains that we only have proof, so far, for the latter, and very little price points showing any decline in any area of this market (so far).

 

If you look at a chart of domestic oil production between 1920 and 1970, it's pretty much one continuous upward move from the lower left to the upper right (see below). Virtually no one looking in the rearview mirror in 1970 would have predicted that domestic oil production would peak and decline for the next 38 years (until the shale boom finally reversed that downtrend). Another example would be the housing market. We hadn't seen a nationwide decline in housing prices since the Great Depression (see below) and virtually everyone believed it would never happen again. What they didn't take into consideration was that the market had reached an all-time level of greed, folly, lies and leverage. That is the danger of linearly extrapolating trends indefinitely into the future, even trends that had previously been in place for decades like the rise in OA prices, without examining the conditions prevailing (and likely to prevail in the future) at any given point in history. The trend is your friend...until you hit an inflection point and linear extrapolation stops working.

 

What I think you and Tim are not recognizing is that psychological barriers have become financial barriers over time. Spending $2K on a DKR cover 25 years ago was psychologically unthinkable for almost everyone, even if it was financially feasible for most. Nowadays, spending $500K on a DKR cover is psychologically feasible, but financially unthinkable for all but a small handful of collectors. You can argue that we haven't quite hit the limit yet, but, have no doubt, there is a limit as, mathematically, price appreciation cannot outstrip the gain in buying power indefinitely. As such, it is 100% wrong to say that these barriers are just psychological. At this point, I think many people are so bulled up that the psychological barriers aren't even there! Just look at how many people think we'll see 7-figure sales in the near future or how undervalued OA still is compared to high-end contemporary art. But where will the buyers and buying power come from to keep us going higher (at the top-end) when already the number of buyers who can and will realistically compete for something like the Hulk #180 page is so low you can count them on one hand? It takes more than psychology to get prices to move up; at the end of the day, people need to be writing record-sized checks to back it up.

 

I don't know if we're in the OA equivalent of 1959 or 1969 in terms of the oil production curve analogy. I'd like to think the hobby has another 10-15 years of strong growth ahead of it. But, when I see so many high-end collectors, several of whom have posted in this thread (e.g., Court, Felix, Dan F.), having passed their own personal tipping points, I have to question whether there really is a strong fundamental foundation for prices to be where they are, let alone keep rising at an outsized clip. At the very least, doesn't common sense tell you that the multi-standard deviation outlier returns over the past 5 years have borrowed from the future and that we'll see mean reversion kick in at some point? Doesn't mean that prices have to go down, but it probably means that future returns aren't going to look so hot. Or have the laws of mathematics, statistics, economics and gravity all ceased to apply to OA? Even if it may seem so at the moment, I do not think that will ultimately be the case when we look back at this period in hobby history some years from now.

[tth2]

Just look at how many people think we'll see 7-figure sales in the near future or how undervalued OA still is compared to high-end contemporary art. But where will the buyers and buying power come from to keep us going higher (at the top-end) when already the number of buyers who can and will realistically compete for something like the Hulk #180 page is so low you can count them on one hand? It takes more than psychology to get prices to move up; at the end of the day, people need to be writing record-sized checks to back it up.

A few years ago, before the first $1M comic book sale, if you'd asked me how many people could write a 7-figure check for a comic book, I would've said probably so few you could count them on one hand.

 

And yet, after the first $1M sale, we saw a steady stream of sales over the $1M mark, to the point that it's clear that any decent copy of Action 1 and Tec 27 WILL go over $1M.

 

So what does this prove? Mostly that I don't have a very good idea at all about the depth of big-moneyed comic collectors because the empirical evidence shows that there are many more out there than I realized. You may say that the OA collector pool is much smaller than the comic collector pool, which I will agree with if you look at the entire market, but at the upper echelons of people able to pay high 6 figures and 7 figures, I would guess the ratio of comic collectors to OA collectors narrows significantly.

[tth2]

That's obviously a story that's MANY years out, but I will take the other side of 20-year linear extrapolations like yours all day long, as the future is rarely so orderly and predictable.

So is the bet that in 20 years, $657,000 will seem like a bargain for the Hulk 180 page, and you're betting that it will not?

 

I will bet you a dinner of the winner's choice anywhere within the US or Asia. Of course, by then I'll be 70 so I'll be happy to even be alive to pay off this bet if I happen to lose (which I won't).

 

Tim, I'd take that bet which ever way you wanted but it would be nice to have you visit the UK again.

Hi Imran, hopefully I'll make it back to the UK sometime in the not too distant future. I always look forward to meeting up with you and the rest of the gang!

[tth2]

FFS, I can`t believe you`re trying to chicken out of this bet by attaching all sorts of conditions and quibbles! I may have to start calling you Joe Collector!

 

It`s just dinner, and the likelihood that either of us will actually still remember this in 20 years is close to nil. And if we do, even if you lose, you still win because you`re getting the pleasure of my company at dinner!

 

So stop being such a wuss and just take the bet!

 

You mean you have to be there at the dinner?

 

I just want the bet to reflect what I believe. The nominal price of most things rises over time due to inflation; I am not saying that prices are going to crash, I am saying that outsized real (inflation-adjusted) returns are not likely from 2014 levels over a 20-year horizon. I mean, if this page is worth $2 million in 2034, but a loaf of bread costs $25 then, a starter apartment in Manhattan is $10 million, and Berkshire Hathaway stock is at a split-adjusted $1.5 million/share, absolutely you should be the one picking up the tab!

Bawk! Bawk! Bawk!

 

[delekkerste]

Gene's argument that we are now hitting a "too high" price point, quite honestly, is coming because this is the price point where he has also had to take pause. I feel the same exact way. But the price point was 1K for some, 10K for many others, or 100K, etc. There is nothing special about the "new" highest sale than the "old" highest sale, except it is hitting most of us where it hurts now.

 

Hari, don't you think if guys like you and me are having to take pause, while there's a list of guys as long as my arm who have already passed their personal tipping points (including mutual friends of ours), that it might suggest some underlying froth and instability in the current pricing structure? It's kind of like the income inequality argument. Some inequality is necessary for a healthy economy. But if there are a few guys at the top and everyone else is effectively some form of serf...you've got problems, no?

 

Anyway, I'm really nowhere near as frustrated as people here seem to think; perhaps I've done too good a job of selling the drama, so to speak! As I've said before, I can honestly say that there's no other collection that I'd rather have than my own as it's packed full of pieces that are meaningful to me and my experience in this hobby. If there are some pieces out there that are now out of reach, I'm certainly not losing any sleep over it, and I'm still finding some cool stuff to buy at various points of the price spectrum as you've seen and will see going forward. Besides, I can always join the long list of friends in the hobby living vicariously through Mr. Sonenthal.

 

I may spend a lot of time on the Boards, but all that should really tell you is that I like to write these posts and engage with fellow collectors about topics like this, not that I'm lamenting where the hobby has gone and my position in it!

[delekkerste]

So what does this prove? Mostly that I don't have a very good idea at all about the depth of big-moneyed comic collectors because the empirical evidence shows that there are many more out there than I realized.

 

Regarding the OA market, the empirical evidence shows that we know the name, age, profession and size* of every buyer who has spent $300K or more on a single piece of American comic art. If we knew where that pesky ASM #121 cover went, we could lower the bar even further. Now, if you're talking about people who can throw down $50K, $100K or $150K, yeah, there are people who are still off the radar (but these people are not likely to be making mid-6 and 7-figure purchases anytime soon/ever). But not at the very top-end. We literally know them all.

 

 

 

 

 

 

*OK, maybe not size.

[Phill the Governor]

So what does this prove? Mostly that I don't have a very good idea at all about the depth of big-moneyed comic collectors because the empirical evidence shows that there are many more out there than I realized.

 

Regarding the OA market, the empirical evidence shows that we know the name, age, profession and size* of every buyer who has spent $300K or more on a single piece of American comic art. If we knew where that pesky ASM #121 cover went, we could lower the bar even further. Now, if you're talking about people who can throw down $50K, $100K or $150K, yeah, there are people who are still off the radar (but these people are not likely to be making mid-6 and 7-figure purchases anytime soon/ever). But not at the very top-end. We literally know them all.

 

 

 

 

*OK, maybe not size.

 

I never though about this. Good point.

 

However, how about private sales? There's bound to be people that have spent in the 6 figures that prefer to remain anonymous. I know several comic collectors who are this way.