OAAW 83's potential to be a top 5 SA key?

[drbanner]

For 4-figure and higher books, the folks buying/selling that kind of stuff are almost all tuned in to the certified segment of the market, and GPA has become the "guide".

It's more complicated than that and not black and white.

 

There are some expensive books in the Guide that don't even fetch Guide prices on the open market.

 

And there are some GPA books that will fetch over Guide to the right market.

 

So nowadays it all depends on your market and what they expect.

I think you misunderstand - I'm saying the OSPG has become obsolete when it comes to high-dollar books and has been replaced by GPA as a reference tool to "guide" one when determining value (how much to pay for a book).

 

Books sell above/below GPA all the time due to a multitude of factors (or prices would never increase), but as a reference point, GPA is much more in tune with the market than "The Official Overstreet Comic Book Price Guide".

[BarryAllen]

OPG is still relevant. It's still used for buying and selling by thousands of comic collectors and dealers. Every time a comic sells when priced according to OPG, that legitimizes the guide.

 

If we want to argue that it's not as relevant as it was 30-40 years ago, then I would say that's reasonable but to suggest that it's not relevant ignores the thousands of raw comic transactions that take place every day, not only on the internet but at shops and shows.

this

 

+1

 

I haven't walked into a con ever where a dealer didn't whip out an OPG to check valuation of a raw wall book. Ever...

 

 

 

+1 to all of the above.

 

 

I haven't walked into a con ever where a dealer didn't whip out an OPG to check valuation of a raw wall book. Ever...

 

Not only cons, but comic book stores too. Nearly every comic book store I have ever been to, including nowadays, uses OPG for their BA, SA, etc. Either the books are already marked by OPG prices, or they take it out the OPG right in front of me and make the price.

BTW, I also know dealers who price their slabbed comics by OPG.

So, yes, there are now alternatives on the Internet etc, but OPG is still used SO much.

 

Of course, the OPG has some flaws. I myself pointed that out in an earlier post. But that doesn't mean it's not relevant. And it doesn't mean it is flawed for all of its pricing - far from it. I find that it is very useful the great majority of the time.

 

And to say that it is not relevant because of its flaws is very much missing the point. It is relevant, despite its flaws, because it is used so much! And, because it actually is very useful.

 

I myself use it almost every day.

 

I wouldn't say it is still relevant. I would say it is indispensable.

And that's when looking at it as just a price guide.

But it is so much more than just a price guide, that it really is indispensable.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Inaccuracy by definition calls into question the guide's validity, that is the main point. Dealers, buyers, sellers, or whoever are picking and choosing pricing they want to be "accurate" for any given reason and doing the same for pricing they deem "inaccurate." Admitting there are "flaws" should call into question any pricing in the guide period.

 

Outside of the articles (which was a good point), the guide is not helpful because you only use it because you do not have a known alternative or because the price you found benefits you (either as a buyer or seller).

 

Everyone is clearly free to do as they wish, but it appears people only validate it opportunistically - which in my book makes it a poor tool.

[MusterMark]

OPG is still relevant. It's still used for buying and selling by thousands of comic collectors and dealers. Every time a comic sells when priced according to OPG, that legitimizes the guide.

 

If we want to argue that it's not as relevant as it was 30-40 years ago, then I would say that's reasonable but to suggest that it's not relevant ignores the thousands of raw comic transactions that take place every day, not only on the internet but at shops and shows.

this

 

+1

 

I haven't walked into a con ever where a dealer didn't whip out an OPG to check valuation of a raw wall book. Ever...

 

 

 

+1 to all of the above.

 

 

I haven't walked into a con ever where a dealer didn't whip out an OPG to check valuation of a raw wall book. Ever...

 

Not only cons, but comic book stores too. Nearly every comic book store I have ever been to, including nowadays, uses OPG for their BA, SA, etc. Either the books are already marked by OPG prices, or they take it out the OPG right in front of me and make the price.

BTW, I also know dealers who price their slabbed comics by OPG.

So, yes, there are now alternatives on the Internet etc, but OPG is still used SO much.

 

Of course, the OPG has some flaws. I myself pointed that out in an earlier post. But that doesn't mean it's not relevant. And it doesn't mean it is flawed for all of its pricing - far from it. I find that it is very useful the great majority of the time.

 

And to say that it is not relevant because of its flaws is very much missing the point. It is relevant, despite its flaws, because it is used so much! And, because it actually is very useful.

 

I myself use it almost every day.

 

I wouldn't say it is still relevant. I would say it is indispensable.

And that's when looking at it as just a price guide.

But it is so much more than just a price guide, that it really is indispensable.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Inaccuracy by definition calls into question the guide's validity, that is the main point. Dealers, buyers, sellers, or whoever are picking and choosing pricing they want to be "accurate" for any given reason and doing the same for pricing they deem "inaccurate." Admitting there are "flaws" should call into question any pricing in the guide period.

 

Outside of the articles (which was a good point), the guide is not helpful because you only use it because you do not have a known alternative or because the price you found benefits you (either as a buyer or seller).

 

Everyone is clearly free to do as they wish, but it appears people only validate it opportunistically - which in my book makes it a poor tool.

 

 

[VintageComics]

For 4-figure and higher books, the folks buying/selling that kind of stuff are almost all tuned in to the certified segment of the market, and GPA has become the "guide".

It's more complicated than that and not black and white.

 

There are some expensive books in the Guide that don't even fetch Guide prices on the open market.

 

And there are some GPA books that will fetch over Guide to the right market.

 

So nowadays it all depends on your market and what they expect.

I think you misunderstand - I'm saying the OSPG has become obsolete when it comes to high-dollar books and has been replaced by GPA as a reference tool to "guide" one when determining value (how much to pay for a book).

 

Books sell above/below GPA all the time due to a multitude of factors (or prices would never increase), but as a reference point, GPA is much more in tune with the market than "The Official Overstreet Comic Book Price Guide".

 

All fair points.

 

But there are still markets where even if GPA is under Guide on a book, people will pay the higher Guide price...because they don't care about/subscribe to/know about GPA. All they use is the Guide.

[VintageComics]

 

Inaccuracy by definition calls into question the guide's validity, that is the main point. Dealers, buyers, sellers, or whoever are picking and choosing pricing they want to be "accurate" for any given reason and doing the same for pricing they deem "inaccurate." Admitting there are "flaws" should call into question any pricing in the guide period.

 

Outside of the articles (which was a good point), the guide is not helpful because you only use it because you do not have a known alternative or because the price you found benefits you (either as a buyer or seller).

 

Everyone is clearly free to do as they wish, but it appears people only validate it opportunistically - which in my book makes it a poor tool.

 

You're being too idealistic. It's just an annual Guide. Some things are accurate and some are not. It's not meant to be like a stock ticker.

 

The comic market is fluid, large (as in diverse) and mostly old school.

 

There will come a time when it will shift to digital info primarily but it isn't yet.

[rjpb]

If one buys and sells enough, I can see the OSPG being another tool for figuring out some sort of baseline value, but I haven't bought one in years, and never reference guide price when buying and selling. I use a combination of ebay and Heritage and sometimes Metro prices, along with memory, experience and even gut feel to figure out what something is "worth".

[bronze johnny]

If one buys and sells enough, I can see the OSPG being another tool for figuring out some sort of baseline value, but I haven't bought one in years, and never reference guide price when buying and selling. I use a combination of ebay and Heritage and sometimes Metro prices, along with memory, experience and even gut feel to figure out what something is "worth".

 

Baseline value is significant, especially with the prices for non-key books. The Guide can be one reference among others that can be used before deciding whether to buy or sell a book.

[BarryAllen]

 

Inaccuracy by definition calls into question the guide's validity, that is the main point. Dealers, buyers, sellers, or whoever are picking and choosing pricing they want to be "accurate" for any given reason and doing the same for pricing they deem "inaccurate." Admitting there are "flaws" should call into question any pricing in the guide period.

 

Outside of the articles (which was a good point), the guide is not helpful because you only use it because you do not have a known alternative or because the price you found benefits you (either as a buyer or seller).

 

Everyone is clearly free to do as they wish, but it appears people only validate it opportunistically - which in my book makes it a poor tool.

 

You're being too idealistic. It's just an annual Guide. Some things are accurate and some are not. It's not meant to be like a stock ticker.

 

The comic market is fluid, large (as in diverse) and mostly old school.

 

There will come a time when it will shift to digital info primarily but it isn't yet.

 

I do like my idealism.

 

I agree with your assessment of the market and the long-term shift to digital. However, I do not share your opinion the guide's intent, I think you are taking a position that is inaccurate of that actual day to day transactional nature of the business. In the moment of purchase the guide is interpreted as either gospel or blasphemy. While the sum of these interpretations becomes the "grayness" most of the world lives in, the sales themselves are at the extremes.

 

So you are right, my point of view is slighted towards idealism but it is only because I feel the support/acceptance in this thread of what is at best polarizing tool is silly.

 

Banana Dance.

[Bronty]

When did this become an overstreet thread? Overstreet whatever one's opinion of it is really a separate topic

[drbanner]

When did this become an overstreet thread? Overstreet whatever one's opinion of it is really a separate topic

The thread was sort of predicated on the "keyness" definition of the book according to OS from the very 1st post:

 

"There's no question that OAAW 83 is a top 20 Overstreet SA key."

 

Then there was some talk of lobbying Bob Overstreet to update the guide to list the book in it's top 20 Silver Age books list since by it's own values, the book belongs in the top 20 based on "guide" value...but what really is "guide" value?

 

What really is Silver Age?

 

And that's how a bill becomes a law!

[BarryAllen]

When did this become an overstreet thread? Overstreet whatever one's opinion of it is really a separate topic

The thread was sort of predicated on the "keyness" definition of the book according to OS from the very 1st post:

 

"There's no question that OAAW 83 is a top 20 Overstreet SA key."

 

Then there was some talk of lobbying Bob Overstreet to update the guide to list the book in it's top 20 Silver Age books list since by it's own values, the book belongs in the top 20 based on "guide" value...but what really is "guide" value?

 

What really is Silver Age?

 

And that's how a bill becomes a law!

 

 

 

[VintageComics]

I do like my idealism.

 

I agree with your assessment of the market and the long-term shift to digital. However, I do not share your opinion the guide's intent, I think you are taking a position that is inaccurate of that actual day to day transactional nature of the business. In the moment of purchase the guide is interpreted as either gospel or blasphemy. While the sum of these interpretations becomes the "grayness" most of the world lives in, the sales themselves are at the extremes.

 

So you are right, my point of view is slighted towards idealism but it is only because I feel the support/acceptance in this thread of what is at best polarizing tool is silly.

 

Banana Dance.

 

Every Guide needs some form of interpretation, including GPA. Until we all learn to mind meld, there will be gaps in information.

 

When Hulk #1's popped, GPA, the single most up to date price indicator was lagging for months.

 

Idealism is great. I'm an idealist, but you have to learn to temper it with reality or you're going to be sorely disappointed often.

[MrBedrock]

if this book is so valuable, what would the 9.0 copy of OAAW 83 sell for today?

 

My guess is the 9.0 would sell for $25K-$30K.

The owner has turned down $30K for it without a hint of consideration.

[BarryAllen]

I do like my idealism.

 

I agree with your assessment of the market and the long-term shift to digital. However, I do not share your opinion the guide's intent, I think you are taking a position that is inaccurate of that actual day to day transactional nature of the business. In the moment of purchase the guide is interpreted as either gospel or blasphemy. While the sum of these interpretations becomes the "grayness" most of the world lives in, the sales themselves are at the extremes.

 

So you are right, my point of view is slighted towards idealism but it is only because I feel the support/acceptance in this thread of what is at best polarizing tool is silly.

 

Banana Dance.

 

Every Guide needs some form of interpretation, including GPA. Until we all learn to mind meld, there will be gaps in information.

 

When Hulk #1's popped, GPA, the single most up to date price indicator was lagging for months.

 

Idealism is great. I'm an idealist, but you have to learn to temper it with reality or you're going to be sorely disappointed often.

 

I agree, there is much work to be done to improve the tools to where they need to be. To your point, the Hulk 1 situation was hard to chase but it was largely driven by dealers not choosing to submit data to GPA. That is an entirely different subject we do not need to get into, but until data becomes more available that situation will continue to happen.

 

I appreciate your feedback though. (thumbs u

[MrBedrock]

 

If I approached 100 random strangers with a copy of AF #15, I suspect all of them could tell me whose first appearance it contains, without having to even think about it (or stop to read the cover blurb.)

 

If I approached 100 random strangers with a copy of OOAW #83, I suspect none of them would be able to tell me whose first appearance it was.

 

That's the difference in brand power between the capes and war.

 

I doubt 100 random strangers would stand still long enough for you to ask them the questions.

[VintageComics]

if this book is so valuable, what would the 9.0 copy of OAAW 83 sell for today?

 

My guess is the 9.0 would sell for $25K-$30K.

The owner has turned down $30K for it without a hint of consideration.

 

Quick, tell Bob Overstreet!

[RockMyAmadeus]

There are hundreds (if not thousands) of conversations on this site where people claim the guide is not a good indicator of value.

 

It can't wrong all the time, right all the time and still be legitimate. Heck, one of the main points of this thread has been how OOAW 83 was not included in the top 20, but should have been... People can't have it both ways, pick and choose which data is accurate and then decide it is still legitimate. I call shenanigans.

 

Ultimately it comes down to how the pricing is created. From how it has been explained to me, it is a bunch of people (and by people I mean investors in the guide via advertising or other and various forms of comic sellers) sitting in a room and discussing what comic values should be and coming to some alignment. Ignoring the obvious conflict of interest in that arrangement, I have also read that a number of other dealers have submitted reams of data from actual sales that largely goes ignored.

 

So no it isn't legitimate if: it isn't consistent, isn't created without a conflict of interest and doesn't incorporate broader results of actual sales. Lack of another substitute to help with pricing doesn't make it accurate.

 

That's the first thing you've posted here that I mostly disagree with.

 

 

The reason OPG is relevant is not because the prices aren't "accurate." It's true, the prices aren't accurate; rarely do books sell for what they're priced at in the OPG.

 

But...

 

It is consistent in its inaccuracy, and that is its greatest strength.

 

Before 1993-4, essentially everything sold for what the OPG priced it at. The hobby was small enough, without the network of instant info, that it was a good indicator not only of what people WERE paying, but what they would be WILLING to pay (which is often a far, far, FAR more important factor in commerce.)

 

Say it's 1987. If I want an X-Men #1...and there's a mid-grade-ish copy sitting in a dealer case for $300...I may say "hmm...I want it, but I don't know if it's worth $300. That's what the OPG says it's worth, but I just don't know..."

 

Then, you come back the next day, or the next week, or whatever, and it's gone. You inquire, and you find out your friend, Steve, bought it for $300.

 

Now, to you, the $300 price has been legitimized in your mind, because someone else...and more importantly, someone you know...thought it was worth $300. They confirmed the value of the book to you.

 

Now, you will be much, much more WILLING to buy the next comparable copy that comes along for $300, because you have a basis of value for it.

 

That's how prices go up, and how the market has operated since, essentially, the 60's.

 

Now, however, it's 1993, and it's a nuthouse. Books are selling for unheard of prices, and the market is moving far too fast for ANY price guide to keep current. Nobody, not Wizard, not the Updates, nothing is able to keep up with the market and demand for comics, both new and old. Books that are released one day are $50 by the end of that day, and $100 by the weekend (Superman #75.)

 

No one can keep track of that, so....they stopped trying, and simply decided what their prices would be.

 

Then, the great collapse of 94-96 came, which trickled down to the entire industry by 1999-2001. And, in 1999-2001, you could get almost anything for practically nothing. I bought a 9.2ish TMNT #1 first print for $66 shipped on eBay in March or April of 1999. Fantasy #15s in VG could be had for less than $1,000 (yes, less than $1,000.) Avengers #1? How about $300 for a mid-grade. FF #1? How's about $700 for a VG? Showcase #22? $500 for a solid F/VF. X-Men #94? A NM copy would only set you back $150 or so, if that.

 

But, Bob Overstreet wasn't prepared for this, and wouldn't react, because it was foreign territory to him. Yes, the market had receded...a bit...in the early 80's, but in his entire collecting experience, things had NEVER contracted the way they did in the late 90's, ever. Oh, sure, people were still paying a premium for the ultra high grade, and the GA keys, but everything else was dumpsville. So...what to do?

 

One of the first post-crash things that OPG did was SLASH the prices for Fine and Good (before there was VG, VF, VF/NM, etc.) From the 1997 to the 1998 OPG, the prices for "NM" stayed fairly static...but the prices for everything below took a massive hit....massively slashed...and, since it wasn't the "top grade' value, people hardly noticed. Before CGC, of course, was the bad old days, and EVERYTHING was priced at the "NM" price (yes, I exaggerate, but not by much.)

 

But that wasn't enough, so...for the first time in OPG history, Bob slowly cut prices by percentages on everything...slowly, slowly, slowly, year after year. 1% here, 2% there, 5% over here. Some stuff went up, but a lot of stuff went down, as it should have, between 1997 and 2005.

 

Of course, what happened in between? The internet. And, for the first time in history, collectors could easily sell TO EACH OTHER, cutting out the catalog dealers, the retailers, the con dealers, etc. It was a revelation, and it combined with the crash to drive prices down, down, down.

 

So we arrived at the 21st century, with the comics market at its lowest point ever...new books struggled to sell 100,000 direct copies, the newsstand was on a death march, and prices were at all time lows.

 

Overstreet doesn't react, because now, he can't. He's created a guide that no longer reflects what is, because it cannot. The monopoly on selling comics that dealers had since the 60's is gone, the market has crashed, and everyone and their mother could sell comics to everyone else and THEIR mothers. And, once the demand was gone...the prices fell.

 

OPG soldiers on. However, all hope is not lost. A savior for the industry comes out of the blue, from a hitherto fairly unconnected source: movies. It starts with Spiderman in 2002 (X-Men in 2000 did virtually nothing.)

 

Actually, it started in 1989 with Batman, but that didn't last. It was like EC fandom in the 50's, the first really organized collectors, which fizzled after EC was forced to shut it down.

 

But Spidey comes out in 2002, and the public is starved for superheroes...and demand returns. Slowly, and limited to Spidey stuff, but it returns. People start looking for comics again.

 

Then, we start to have "events" that bring in new readers...Identity Crisis...Civil War....death of Cap....and Spiderman 2....and a few non-Superhero comic movies get made, that capture people's interests...From Hell....League of Extraordinary Gents...then more capes, like X-Men 2, and Batman Begins...

 

Then. 2008 happens. And like a thunderclap, The Dark Knight and Iron Man open the floodgates, the dam bursts, and for the first time in a decade and a half, comic books are cool again! And one after another, the hits keep coming...Wolverine, Avengers, Thor, Iron Man 2, Man of Steel, Thor 2, Hulk (the Norton version)...and the market is absolutely in hysteria not seen in years.

 

What does all of this have to do with the OPG's relevance?

 

Much. See, while OPG refused to slash prices where they should have been, he maintained a "ceiling" value, and the prices in the OPG stopped being looked at as the starting price (as they had been from 1970-1995-ish) and started being looked at as the STOPPING price. "Ok, what's OPG on a VG/F Batman #232? Ok, how about 25% off of that?"

 

And that scenario got repeated over and over and over again. The OPG is inaccurate...but it has been CONSISTENT in its inaccuracy, to the point where I can look up a price, do a quick mental figuring, and come up with a reasonable FMV for just about anything...and I don't have to memorize the entire guide to do it (there was a time, in the early 90's, when I could quote you any price, for any book, in the Updates...when NM was the only price listed, but that was still several thousand prices.)

 

And now....we're starting to see demand reach the point where the prices in the OPG are, for the first time in 2 decades, starting to become the actual prices that the market is willing to pay!

 

I've used the OPG for 25 years now, and I still use it to form a "baseline value." Granted, that baseline value is now the high-end retail price, what someone who isn't savvy would expect to pay at a store, but still...I can look at it and see a Challengers of the Unknown #7 in VG and know if $75 is a fair price for it or not...and here's where I circle back to the point I made at the very beginning: so can everyone else.

 

And, if I know what everyone else is willing to pay, I can know what I want to pay. Seems counterintuitive at times, but that's really how it works. Don't believe me...?

 

Then why does everything have a price tag on it? Why can't people just pick merchandise out, walk up to the merchant (or his/her representative), and say "I'll pay you $15 for this shirt"? You may say "well, it's obviously to save time!"...not so. It's so that people know what everyone else expects and is expected to pay for the same item.

 

If a book is marked at $24.95...then I know that most people will expect to pay $24.95 for it, even if they never actually pay $24.95. "Wha?? How does THAT work, RMA???" Simple. You see the price tag, and you say...ooo...I'm getting a deal if I buy it from Amazon for 40% off!...not *really* stopping to think, on a deeper conscious level, that EVERYONE gets that same price. No, to you, the "price marked" is what it's "worth", because that's what the "average Joe" off the street has to pay, and that's what the retailer wants you to *think* it is worth.

 

And that's how markets work.

 

Same with the OPG. If a Spiderman #14 has a VG value of $476, then I "know" that, somewhere, there's someone who will think that is what it is worth, and will pay it (even if that someone doesn't actually exist, and doesn't actually buy a VG Spidey #14 at that price.) Whether someone actually does or not doesn't matter...the fact is, SOMEONE (even if it's only the people who work for Overstreet) thinks that book has a retail value of $476, which means that I can safely pay $350 for it, and not get burned, because it's really only worth $25.

 

And that is why the OPG is still relevant.

 

 

 

[Jaydogrules]

if this book is so valuable, what would the 9.0 copy of OAAW 83 sell for today?

 

My guess is the 9.0 would sell for $25K-$30K.

The owner has turned down $30K for it without a hint of consideration.

 

The owner would be wise to keep his book then. As another poster has stated, there is usually a cap on what a book like this typically goes for on the open market, regardless of how high the grade is.

 

I would suspect that number for this book would be markedly less than $30k.

 

-J.

[MrBedrock]

Now that is a great post. And yes, I actually read all of it

[VintageComics]

Someone's off work today!