One Man Comic Business 9 9

[MetalPSI]

Having not really seen you around the forums, I still had a good feeling buying from you.

 

And now I know why. Great journal, and thanks for the wealth of information. Highly interesting

[1Cool]

Nice JO 135!

[Lucky Baru]

Great read. Thanks for sharing.

[Azkaban]

Congrats

[ft88]

Part II of the collection from the previous page.

 

As is typical, unless the books are in hand, you don't have a deal. Sure enough before I could make it back with the cash, he received another higher offer. And truth be told it was much higher by a couple $1000 so I couldn't really blame him. Moreso I was worried, as his voice mail suggested that I had really low-balled him but he wanted to see if I was willing to counter offer since I came up first.

 

Now, keep in mind there is one really big book in the GA lot and we used the guide to gauge price. Little did I know at the time (though I did later as I researched the deal) that this monster GA key had pretty much doubled in price just in the last year. So my offer was maybe 25% below guide but the second person he brought it to was able to show some recent sales that made my offer look a little silly. So I didn't have a problem raising it, but I was certainly concerned I was out.

 

Take what you want for lessons here but the main thing is the pain that happens if you are first to a collection and have to walk away, especially after making an offer. I've often been second to a collection and been the winner as I was able to not only beat the price but show how low the initial offer was.

 

Luckily I think the second buyer didn't have the cash with him either (who does really) so the seller did still have them and gave me another shot if I would beat it by a $1000. This certainly reduced any profit margin by a lot but these are 1940s Actions and a strong key book that is on fire, so margins be damned in this case.

[ft88]

Also, he brought in more low grade 1960s books. I did ask multiple times if he was going to bring more books and if so I would need to bring more cash. So that was a nice add on. I'll post a group shot here when I get home tonight. The collection consists of Action 33 38 45 53 54 92 94 Hulk 2 4 6, Four Color 21 Large Feature 15 D{I}ck Tracy 1 and a high grade TTA 49.

 

With this a done deal combined with 1 large and 1 small SA/BA lot I'd like to think when he wants to sell more of his books he'll call me back. I did feel like I blew the deal and sure I had to pay significantly more than my initial low offer. But I at least was able to explain how I made the mistake and he seemed OK with that. All to the good too as the deal was much more equitable.

[ft88]

This brought up an interesting real life situation. You come to a collection with no background on it or the sellers at all. It is the stereotypical 1980s collection of store and convention bought GA and SA books. Mostly low grade a few keys but nothing special except for his pride and joy book XXX. Lets say its a VG Amazing Fantasy 15. It is of course raw. It has a store stick on it for say $700 and is labeled VG+ or something like that, you get the idea.

 

If unrestored its worth $20,000 and if restored maybe $6000. How do you go about making the purchase?

 

Assume this is a one time sale and if you don't buy it on the spot you will likely lose out to another person/dealer.

 

You look at it close and feel that it isn't restored but how can you be 100% or even 99% that it hasn't been trimmed, staples replaced, cleaned or any number of things that are hard to determine definitively.

 

What do you offer and what do you tell the seller. Lets add this likelihood to the mix. He's looked on ebay and sees that they are worth a lot of money. He's a gruff cynical guy but wants to sell it and wants $12,000. What do you do?

 

Even after explaining everything he doesn't want to send it in to CGC first. And if he did, he may just sell it on ebay. Now what, do you buy it for $12k? Less?

[ft88]

Action group pic.

 

Purchase Stickers are from Paper Moon Comics. The 23 was priced at $545.

 

Just got done reading the Luthor story for the first time. Love the Golden Age books, nothing like it.

 

[W16227]

This brought up an interesting real life situation. You come to a collection with no background on it or the sellers at all. It is the stereotypical 1980s collection of store and convention bought GA and SA books. Mostly low grade a few keys but nothing special except for his pride and joy book XXX. Lets say its a VG Amazing Fantasy 15. It is of course raw. It has a store stick on it for say $700 and is labeled VG+ or something like that, you get the idea.

 

If unrestored its worth $20,000 and if restored maybe $6000. How do you go about making the purchase?

 

Assume this is a one time sale and if you don't buy it on the spot you will likely lose out to another person/dealer.

 

You look at it close and feel that it isn't restored but how can you be 100% or even 99% that it hasn't been trimmed, staples replaced, cleaned or any number of things that are hard to determine definitively.

 

What do you offer and what do you tell the seller. Lets add this likelihood to the mix. He's looked on ebay and sees that they are worth a lot of money. He's a gruff cynical guy but wants to sell it and wants $12,000. What do you do?

 

Even after explaining everything he doesn't want to send it in to CGC first. And if he did, he may just sell it on ebay. Now what, do you buy it for $12k? Less?

 

 

So - a pride and joy book is ( especially AF 15) - is one of those hard to measure buys - as you have to overcome that emotional attachment with $$$ - along with the fact that the seller knows it is worth a lot.

 

My first inclination would be to only make an offer for all of the other books and deal with the AF15 separately. When you have a collection so skewed in value (and I am assuming that the AF15 is much higher value than the others), the best case IMO - for both buyer and seller is to make it 2 transactions.

 

After closing the bulk of the collection as I know you would be able to do with your mad negotiation skills, you then have to look at several things with respect to a persons own experience and confidence.

 

Me - I would most like offer the "restored" rate - maybe 1K more. The rationale being that I am taking the risk so I cannot offer more and eat a big loss. If there is no deal to be made ( and assuming I already closed on the other books) - I would alternately offer advice to them on how to get the book to auction themselves so that they can get the maximum. for the book on their own.

 

 

 

I know that I would jump at a 12K for at least 20K return investment - BUT not one with a single comic. Why? - cash! If you have a lot of reserves then it is not a huge hit to the bankroll if it comes back restored. Me? - the 12K represents a big % of available buying reserves. If I tank on this one - lots of work would have been wasted.

 

Also - experience! - for a non slabbed book with possible resto - I am not one of those that can wave my hand over the book and spot trimming.

 

If the money is not critical to the decision ( lets say that a 6K hit is 10% or less of your reserves) - then you can look at it as more of a math/game theory problem. Treat it as an event that happens many times over an over again - and just look at the long term expected return on investment.

 

 

Note - you have to figure your % here for the different outcomes. A really good grader/resto expert - would easily be able to minimize resto risk.

 

 

 

so - investment is ~ 13K ( book plus press and slab)

 

 

50% of the time - payout is 7K (grade as expected)

23% of the time - payout is 3K ( oops - you over graded)

25% of the time - loss is 7K ( !@#$@#$# resto)

2% of the time - payout is 15K (joeypost has mad skills)

 

so - over a long term - this kind of purchase ( with the assumed % outcomes) makes you ~ $2700 for the initial 13K investment. This is ~ a 20% return on your money. Not bad.

 

 

Note that EVERY number up there - is really an estimate except for that initial investment one ( you will obviously know the $$$$ needed for that book). Individuals would need to adjust to what they feel is a fair estimates for the outcomes - and some might add in more categories as well. The basic idea is to look at the potential outcomes and how often they happen.

 

For any dealer- the % numbers can be shifted - it all depends on your experience and expertise. The overage on a book that you KNOW can improve with a press - can pop that last % and maybe even that last row payout. Better graders? - then the undergrade number may drop low.

 

 

For people who have to think too much about the price and risking that resto loss - then you are probably not tall enough to ride that ride yet. That's ok - just work on smaller books/collections and build that bankroll. For big $$$ transactions like this - you need to be able to afford the loss - or maybe a better way to think of it - you need to be able to make this same purchase many times over so the long term results can offset short term risks.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ft88]

That about sums it up. At the moment of The deal the probabilities are gut as much as anything. Usually I can catch 1980s resto. More Often I miss a water stain or interior issue even on a high end books.

[ft88]

Here's a method I use with larger lots or typical collections from the late 60s to 1970s. Come across a box or two of 12 to 20 centers. All VGish some with water stains but it's not a mess. Some keys but no Hulk 181 or HOS 92. Unless the seller insists I basically pay about 50 cents a book and let the keys provide the margin. So two boxes I'll offer $100. Maybe the seller asks for $200 and we meet at $150.

 

This way I really can't lose. Even if the Forever People 1 has a loose centerfold and the Detective 222 has a back cover stain, its still worth ~$300 all in. Seller gets what to sell the lot at a reasonable amount without all the work and headaches. I get to play with comics and make a little profit for the next deal.

 

I like to think I'm pretty good with numbers but in cases like this which are half of the collections I come across, getting to an acceptable number quick works best. To go over every key and explain the value is simply too much IMO.

 

If the seller wants to do that, OK but that is then going to be a tough deal. And at that point its easier to simply make an offer and be prepared to walk.

 

[ft88]

I'll look to write up a couple notes on losing in the comic world. Like many things here, difference aspects apply to things outside of comics, but I like the comic angle and the aspect that we've all seen one or two of these things over the years.

[ft88]

Overgrading:

 

This isn't fraud or anything else but we see it everywhere and is notorious on ebay. It hurts more at the high end high grade level and is easier to miss there as well. This is typically an experience thing and, for that matter, one of the reasons CGC has such a strong business model.

 

One of the ways where it's easy to get burned is that overgrading sways the positioning. Seller claims its a Fine, buyer suggests it's a VG. So you compromise to a VG/F. When it reality it's a VG and maybe a soft one at that as you didn't want to be "mean"

 

The other easy one is if the pictures are small, blurry, cropped or any number of things.

[ft88]

Undisclosed restoration.

 

Another common one, usually small color touch or micro (or regular) trimming. Again, experience counts or rely on CGC.

 

It can be tough with a large-ish collection, say 200 1960-1970 books with 20 reasonably good keys. Lets say its a Spiderman 14-150 raw older books are VG newer ones are NM. In grade they will resell for $10,000 and you have the opportunity to buy for $6000. Seems like a no brainer. Except the 14 is trimmed. The 20 is missing the pinup, the 31 is color touched and the 50 is trimmed. BTW, the trimmed books look VFish and were priced as such.

 

In some cases you simply need to have the experience to detect this. My experience is that if the seller is overly defensive about the restoration, the more likely it is the case. And once you find 1 comic with restoration, there is a greater likelihood there are more. Either an OO messed with his own books (like trimming, interior taping, or color touching), or as a collector he bought good books back in the day for cheap because of these flaws.

 

Also, reasonable sellers should be able to understand that its possible that any book will be considered restored. Folks who have not been in the hobby for 10 or more years may not get the difference in pricing so an education may be required and is often difficult to do without coming across as biased. But with GPA or ebay or other methods you can show those differences and most reasonable folks will get it.

 

 

[ft88]

Fraud:

 

Here are a couple ways folks will fraud you. The solutions are pretty straight forward but can often require work to maintain diligence.

 

Return Switcheroo. Buy a high end book and then return a different low end book back to you.

 

Off Prints: Selling a 2nd print as a 1st print. Stories of graded (not by CGC) TMNT 1's being sold that way are out there.

 

The old reprint of a GA key scam: Selling a Famous First Edition as the real deal.

 

Scam goes like this. Have or buy some 1930s comics that are cheap and low grade. There are some on the board for $10 or so right now. Take an FFE Detective 27 and make it look like a coverless book. Mix the books together in such a way that the Tec 27 doesn't look oversized. Make a generic ebay or craigslist listing about 1940s comics and don't even mention the Tec 27. If ebay, start bidding at $100. If Craigslist, ask $5000 and act like the dummy comic seller asking for too high a price. Carried through you will get swamped with folks begging to give you their money.

[ft88]

The Con:

 

Typically this is some variant of too-good-to-be-true or the Nigerian Prince email scam.

 

Person has a collection of Action 1, Superman 1, Detective 27, and so forth. Insists they aren't reprints and they are original. Nearly always they are high grade and in plastic. Invariably somebody died and left them. And always he can't get to them to take pictures for one reason or another. They are in the safety deposit box is a common refrain.

 

Having a mega key is rare. Having multiple mega keys is very rare. Not having access to them but having them for sale is simply beyond belief.

 

Notice I didn't mention that the only thing they will take is cash. While always true with a scam, it is often true with a real deal as well.

 

The easiest tell on the scan is not having the books and they only mention mega keys. If it were really legit, there would be a Captain America 2 6 10 and 12 along with that #1. Ask them to describe the cover of a non key, that's a fun one.

 

The Prince Nigerian scam is the old email scam but with comics. My Uncle/cousin/friend has the comics but he needs $5000 now before he'll sell them to you for some variety of reasons. Once you have the books you can pay $5000 more and they must be worth upwards of $50,000. Often done by a middleman who needs the money to buy the comics and then will sell to you.

 

Its a pretty good trick but easy enough to sniff out. If you haven't seen the comics either in person or via picture, they don't exist. And don't pay for something to someone you don't know or trust without the books in hand.

 

 

[ft88]

What is interesting is I run across red flags all the time that wind up being real.

 

Me: "Do you have the comics with you?"

Him: "Why yes"

Me: "OK, can you pull a few out and tell the titles and cover price"

Him: "There are just so many. And the boxes are heavy. And thy are in the basement. And I know they are old you can go through them when you get here." and on and on.

 

This sounds really fishy but it happens all the time. Then half the time the books are and the other half and often enough in my experience they are for real. Sellers often simply don't want to go through them. Pretend you have a stamp collection of 1000 1910-1950 stamps that you want to sell. Would you want to go through them for a potential buyer if you goal was simply to unload?

 

I do my darndest to get them to tell me some titles and cover prices though. Asking for issues numbers is often a bridge too far for the grumpy seller.

[ft88]

Another potential flag is that they only want cash. That's understandable but can be a little anxiety ridden for the buyer. Still I get why a seller doesn't want a check or for that matter a money order. Plus sometimes they don't want it recorded for tax, divorce, or other reasons. It's just the nature of the business sometimes.

[ft88]

Another scan flag is they don't have them with them. This is nearly always the case of a scam but many a real collection is in storage or at another local, and the seller doesn't want to get them all out just to tell you about them. That's a tough one with an unknowledgable seller. If they have a good story it's worth the trip.

[rsouxlja7]

Very interesting thread with great information.