If the crash comes...

[RockMyAmadeus]

I'm not offended, I'm hoping to better explain. No sarcasm was meant.

And we are still learning about the census.

It's a continuing component to collecting and selling in lots of hobbies.

I still see the same thing happening in non sport cards.

 

But the "real" highs WAS a friendly jab

 

 

Fair enough.

 

I have to adjust something I said earlier:

 

The premium was for the number on the slab.

 

What I meant was, more accurately, "the premium was for the slab being "sole highest, one (or low) on census."

 

The census will be ever evolving, but what we can see is that, just as predicted, the market behaved in the exact same was as the coin market before it. There are now 24 9.8 X-Men #94s on the census, and even an SS 9.8, so the book is no longer "rare" in high grade, relatively speaking.

 

As new examples of 9.8s on the census won't be flooding in, the market has leveled off, and the "true" value of a 9.8 X-Men #94 is around $10,000, not the $25-$30k it was selling for from 2006-2010.

 

We have enough of the census, and the market, to see this clearly across the board. It's pretty interesting stuff. I've said this elsewhere, but we're just NOW beginning to be able to use the census to determine what really exists, in what conditions, on a fairly broad scale. It takes time, but the picture is definitely getting clearer.

 

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

I have yet to encounter anyone on the forum here that comes close to having a handle on the 90's crash in the way that RMA does.

 

Meanwhile, over in the sales forum, I get blowback.

 

I believe that is what they call "balance."

 

 

Although they may seem like a neutral disinterested party in reality they can control the back issue market like a marionette,no?

 

I suspect there's a lot of truth to this.

[Rip]

I agree the picture is getting more clear.

We have learned a lot about the Bronze age. But Golden age romance for example is still a work in progress. (thumbs u

 

Or for example I learned a lot first hand that some Gerber no shows aren't that hard to find.

[RockMyAmadeus]

Gerber simply didn't have access to them at the time. The internet has revolutionized the entire world.

[Doktor]

I'm just going to keep disagreeing on only focusing on % and ignoring their impact on actual $. So I think we'll just agree to disagree rather than keep going in circles on this. $ & % matter for my math. It's cool if only 1 matters with how you want to look at it.

[RockMyAmadeus]

I'm just going to keep disagreeing on only focusing on % and ignoring their impact on actual $. So I think we'll just agree to disagree rather than keep going in circles on this. $ & % matter for my math. It's cool if only 1 matters with how you want to look at it.

 

Ok.

 

It's just how basic economics and math work, but if that doesn't work for you, hey, no problem. I didn't invent it...I just pass it on.

 

Since no new comics are cover priced at $100, or $150, I guess the point is fairly moot, anyways.

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

I'll give it one more shot:

 

Even then, buying 6 things at $1-$2 or buying 6 things at $100-$150 just exaggerates my point. Going from $6-12 is a bigger % increase but going from $600-$900 is a much bigger $ increase.

 

Say you buy a washing machine. Say the one you want is $600, but you wait, and procrastinate, and then a year later when you get around to it, it's now $900. Big hit, right?

 

But how many times are you going to make that hit? Once every 10-15-20 years.

 

However, say you have a favorite beer brand. One year, it's $6, the next year it's $7, and so on, for six years, until it's now $12.

 

You are likely going to make that purchase over and over and over again, over the course of many years. So, when it adds up, the "$6 to $12" is a GREATER HIT than the $600 to $900, because you're only making that "big" purchase once every decade or more, whereas, you're going to buy beer once a week.

 

You end up spending $400-$600 a year on beer, every year during the time you own that washing machine, so an increase in percentage will translate into an increase in actual dollars spent over the same period of time.

 

The point is, the things that cost $600, and then $900, aren't *typically* consumables, unless you're sipping Cristal out of glass slippers.

 

So, as a percentage AND real cost, you're going to get hit by a 100% increase over time a lot harder than you will that $300 for that single purchase.

 

And that's why comparing percentage increases over time is really the only valid comparison that can be made.

[Awax]

I don't drink

[Doktor]

No, because it's reducing economics down to a dollar statistics & I disagree with economics that don't relate the % back to the $ they are referencing. A lot of modern economics weigh the statistics side of the equation greater than actual dollar amounts, which is what economics is a study of.

 

It's the same bad logic that allows you to say "well, we've reduced the % rate of debt accrued" but ignores that when you look at the debt, the dollar amount actually accrued had doubled in that same period, when it was didn't double in the previous period at a higher debt accrual rate.

 

That begs the question tho: Did you make progress? No. Not real progress. Debt is still growing faster each reporting period, but the % is down. Because the bigger the base number you start with, the lower the % required to reach the same quantity increase. Ignoring the $$ amounts treats every number, no matter their size, as a base-1.

[CBT]

I lack the focus to read your long dissected posts but you have a couple great ones here.

 

RMA threads are like Matryoshka dolls..

 

 

I see the Copper Age board has finally spilled over to the Modern Age...

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

No, because it's reducing economics down to a dollar statistics & I disagree with economics that don't relate the % back to the $ they are referencing. A lot of modern economics weigh the statistics side of the equation greater than actual dollar amounts, which is what economics is a study of.

 

It's the same bad logic that allows you to say "well, we've reduced the % rate of debt accrued" but ignores that when you look at the debt, the dollar amount actually accrued had doubled in that same period, when it was didn't double in the previous period at a higher debt accrual rate.

 

That begs the question tho: Did you make progress? No. Not real progress. Debt is still growing faster each reporting period, but the % is down. Because the bigger the base number you start with, the lower the % required to reach the same quantity increase. Ignoring the $$ amounts treats every number, no matter their size, as a base-1.

 

All I can tell you is this:

 

“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it ... he who doesn't ... pays it.” - Albert Einstein.

 

He was talking about percentage. Percent is not different from "actual dollar amount"...it is just another way of looking at the same numbers."Per cent" means "by the hundred", or as a fraction of one hundred.

 

Your debt example isn't appropriate, because it has factors that aren't related to the simple examples we've been using.

 

It boils down to this: a rise of 100% of the cost of a low cost consumable (like comic books) is a harder hit than a rise of 50% of the cost of a high priced item, over time OR multiplied OR both.

 

Percentages are absolute in that manner

 

Yes, basic math says that a $50 extra charge for an item that was $100 is a harder hit than a $2 extra charge for an item that was $2.

 

If you only buy one unit of each.

 

Since you DON'T generally buy a single unit of the $2 item (that is, it is a repeat purchase), and you are less likely to buy multiple units of the $100 item then, over time/amount, that 100% increase in price is eventually going to catch up and surpass that 50% increase in price.

 

That's just math at work.

 

I'm not an economist, so I don't have the terms for what I'm referring to, but the concept is there.

[N/A]

 

I'm not an economist, so I don't have the terms for what I'm referring to, but the concept is there.

 

Then your argument falls apart. Back to school for you!

[N/A]

 

“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it ... he who doesn't ... pays it.” - Albert Einstein.

.

 

If only this were true.

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

I'm not an economist, so I don't have the terms for what I'm referring to, but the concept is there.

 

Then your argument falls apart. Back to school for you!

 

I fail!

 

 

 

Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it ... he who doesn't ... pays it. - Albert Einstein.

.

 

If only this were true.

 

Einstein fails!

 

[paul747]

One of the good things now is that the market is more spread out among the ages. Also is not uncommon to see all sorts of grade specific crashes and rises within the market.

 

Remember lots of 9.8 keys/Hot cover books from the bronze age that crashed hard starting around 2010 and will likely never come back to previous highs.

Some examples:

30K for a X-Men 94, 25K for a Hulk 181, 10K+ for a Batman 227, 13K for a Detective 400, 12K for Giant Sized X-Men 1, 25-30K for a 9.6 Green Lantern 76.

 

Those "crashed" because of the phenomenon of the census, not because there was a shift in demand.

 

Those "highs" weren't real. Those books were never really worth that price. The premium was for the number on the slab.

 

Now that we've had 15 years of the census, we're starting to see some real, genuine market values across the various markets.

 

It would be a mistake to confuse the phenomenon of the census with a "crash" of any sort.

+100 on this and hulk 181 will come back !

[500Club]

 

The modern books were hit the hardest, Valiant, Death of Superman books, Image, and X-Men. I still remember talking on the phone with that guy who used to pay high prices for Valiants in the CBG. (Forgot his name) Anyway, when he stopped buying, it created a panic that quickly escalated.

The 'Edge Man', in Dallas, IIRC. I can't recall his real name.

[500Club]

What will the start of a crash look like?

 

I'm thinking stacks of new variants sitting forever on LCS shelves or ebay drowning in slabbed books.

I'll tell you what it could look like: a lot like 1993.

 

Reading and enjoyment of the medium replaced by multiple buying and enthusiasm for profit.

 

Publishers ramping up gimmicks, in this case more and more 1:X variants, leading to retailers ramping up orders to get these variants to sell.

 

Buyers suddenly realizing these variants are Franklin Mint items.

 

Retailers getting stuck with reams of regular covers, and not being able to sell the variants for enough to cover the orders.

 

LCSs with unpayable Diamond bills going out of business.

[B-Smooth]

Everything has it's time, I don't deal with many moderns or even the variants because after 2 months, the book is dead. By the time you get it, have it graded, get it back, no one wants it anymore.

 

The best comics to hang onto are the ones with no variant, polybagged or special cover. Most comics that sell for a premium doesn't have any of that nonsense. Does Walking Dead 1 have any kind of special cover? Nope. What about BA 12? Nope again.

 

I will say this though, if a "late 90's crash" was to ever happen again, I'll buy everything in sight, because then it becomes a buyer's market. We're in a seller's market right now and you can thank all these comic book movies for that since thats what pushing all this stuff. So I don't see it dying down anytime soon unless the general public doesn't wanna see another superhero movie again.

 

Sooner than later.

After 15 years (X-men in 2000?), they seem to be doing okay. They've done so well that they may have etched a permanent genre in movies. Drama, comedy, horror, sci-if, super-hero, and so on.. ( unless they already have, and I'm asleep at the wheel.) I don't think they can sustain the popularity they have now because of over-saturation, but they've etched a permanent category.

[CongoBill]

What happened to GA and SA keys, even non-keys for that matter, during the 90's crash?

Curious, as I did not collect those ages back then.

 

They went down, too. The only thing that went up during the general malaise of the late 90's/early 2000's was ultra rare, ultra high grade, or both.

 

If they went down (and that is not my recollection, btw) they did not go down by much. I don't recall Fantastic Four #1 or Amazing Fantasy #15 (or any high-grade, key, prime Gold or Silver books) being dumped on the market for half (or less) of their value.

 

That's because they weren't, and I didn't say anything like that. "They went down" isn't the same thing as "being dumped on the market for half (or less) of their value."

 

However....what does that mean, "being dumped on the market for half (or less) of their value? Do you mean relative to Overstreet? If so, then yes, eBay was the keys to the kingdom. You could buy many, many books, except the ultra rare, or ultra high grade, on eBay for less than they would have cost you in 1993-1995. And that includes all the SA keys, and even substantial portions of GA.

 

If you're not familiar with the great malaise of the late 90's, check out what Overstreet did to almost every book below NM between the 1997 and 1998 OPGs.

 

Let's look at Fantasy #15. We can all agree that that book has been, at least since the 80's, the #1 SA key of all, correct? Great. The good thing is, we don't have to rely on recollection....we can look at the data itself.

 

So, in 2002, there was a sale on Aug 24 of a CGC 6.0 Universal copy for $4,049. I'm assuming it was on eBay, as Heritage doesn't have a record. It's a fair assumption.

 

However....the 1997 OPG lists Fine for $5200.

 

That means, five years AFTER the 1997 OPG, a slabbed copy in 6.0 sold for 22% less than that 1997 OPG value.

 

The biggest, most key book of the SA, right in mid-grade, a solid collectible copy....22% less than the 1997 OPG "value".

 

Then...if we look at the 2001 OPG, we see that the value for a Fine AF #15 is now a shocking $3500...an amazing 33% drop in value. The 2002 OPG, under which this book would have fallen, was $3600.

 

Then, as now, CGC slabs sold for more than raw books, for obvious reasons.

 

So, if you had purchased that book at "guide" in 1997 (and the odds are, you would have), you may not have gotten what would be a 6.0, and restoration free...but you certainly would have paid more for it than if you bought an actual restoration free 6.0 on eBay 5 years later.

 

Yes, little was immune from the late 90's/early 00's.

 

There are tens of thousands of examples, just like this.

 

The value of everything went down. Half? No, not for "the key" stuff. But 20% or more, even on the most key of books? Oh yes. Absolutely.

 

It happened.

 

A few thoughts in response to this:

 

- I'm really talking about these investments over the long haul. If you'd bought a VG or Fine copy of AF15 in 1977 or 1987 and tried to sell it in 1997 or 2002, or if you still have it to this day, then chances are you're able to sell that book for more than you paid for it. Yes, there are always fluctuations in the markets, whether traditional financial investments (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.) or collectibles. My point is if a collector is buying modern comics as investments then they are probably going to end up losing over the long haul. Conversely, if you've been investing in prime Gold and Silver books and holding on to them then chances are you're going to make a profit when you sell or at least get your money back. Sure, there will be some exceptions, but I think you can depend on prime Gold and Silver age comics to be pretty secure investments over the long haul. Not so with modern books. Yes, there are exceptions with moderns. If you were lucky enough to grab 10 copies of Walking Dead #1 off the stands when it was first released, or purchased a copy for $50 or $100 dollars once it started going up, then you're obviously doing just fine. But somebody paying $10K for a CGC 9.8 copy today, well, I wouldn't be doing that. Is that book going to be selling for $20K five years from now? Maybe, but I would not bet on it. And MOST of the modern books you see rapidly going up in value and selling for hundreds within a year of release are not likely going to hold those values. We all know this. The modern comics speculator market is a whole different animal than a long-term investment strategy in prime Gold and Silver comics.

 

- I do recall that there was an adjustment in OPG because prices for high-grade books were rising so much and OPG had been adjusting their prices to reflect this, but had also been increasing values for low and mid-grade books in accordance with the high-grade values, and it was clear that while NM copies of AF15 or FF1 (or whatever) were selling for multiples of Guide, the lower and mid-grade copies were not. So I remember OPG made a conscious effort to correct their run-ups of low and mid-grade values, which is probably what you're referring to here. I don't know if I'm 100% factually correct on all of this, but I do recall a correction in OPG for low and mid-grade values versus VF/NM values.

 

- Also, while OPG is a great reference guide for comic books and general pricing, it does not reflect the actual market. Some books will always sell below Guide and others will always sell well above OPG prices. As a collector of Pre-Code Horror books, I can assure you that if you're buying high-grade PCH or PCH keys, that OPG is of no use at all. You're going to be paying much more in most cases.

[CongoBill]

My main focus of collecting is silver & bronze age keys, and GA pre-code horror. I think I'm crash proof

 

 

The only people who need to worry about a crash or a bubble are the speculators putting their money into modern books, which will always be volatile because, in most cases, there are more than enough high-grade copies to go around once the speculators let go of their copies. And, yes, that includes those supposedly "rare" variant editions.

 

Buy Golden Age, Pre-Code Horror, and prime Silver Age books and you don't really need to worry. Those books will always go up and, at the worst, hold their value.

 

They always go up!

 

 

Over the long haul, yes. Those books consistently go up in value or, at the least, hold their value. You don't see prices plunging for Golden Age, PCH, or prime Silver Age books. Not saying you can't get good deals here and there, but they are not nearly as volatile as speculator-driven modern books. Are you disputing this?

 

In real money terms they do not always go up. How are GA westerns doing?

 

Golden Age westerns have never been "hot" as far as I know. There are genres of Golden Age books that you can get for cheap and may have trouble selling for what you paid. That is why I said "prime" Golden Age. You know, the popular stuff that most collectors actually want?