If the crash comes...

[CongoBill]

 

People do crazy things when money is in the water.

 

"I'm going to put my 401k into a nice high grade Amazing Fantasy #15! That's FOOLPROOF!"

 

 

How can I divert some of my 401K funds into comics without being penalized by the IRS?

[N/A]

My main focus of collecting is silver & bronze age keys, and GA pre-code horror. I think I'm crash proof

 

 

The only people who need to worry about a crash or a bubble are the speculators putting their money into modern books, which will always be volatile because, in most cases, there are more than enough high-grade copies to go around once the speculators let go of their copies. And, yes, that includes those supposedly "rare" variant editions.

 

Buy Golden Age, Pre-Code Horror, and prime Silver Age books and you don't really need to worry. Those books will always go up and, at the worst, hold their value.

 

They always go up!

 

 

Over the long haul, yes. Those books consistently go up in value or, at the least, hold their value. You don't see prices plunging for Golden Age, PCH, or prime Silver Age books. Not saying you can't get good deals here and there, but they are not nearly as volatile as speculator-driven modern books. Are you disputing this?

 

In real money terms they do not always go up. How are GA westerns doing?

 

Golden Age westerns have never been "hot" as far as I know. There are genres of Golden Age books that you can get for cheap and may have trouble selling for what you paid. That is why I said "prime" Golden Age. You know, the popular stuff that most collectors actually want?

 

Which can and do change over what you call "the long haul". (thumbs u

[rjrjr]

My main focus of collecting is silver & bronze age keys, and GA pre-code horror. I think I'm crash proof

 

 

The only people who need to worry about a crash or a bubble are the speculators putting their money into modern books, which will always be volatile because, in most cases, there are more than enough high-grade copies to go around once the speculators let go of their copies. And, yes, that includes those supposedly "rare" variant editions.

 

Buy Golden Age, Pre-Code Horror, and prime Silver Age books and you don't really need to worry. Those books will always go up and, at the worst, hold their value.

 

They always go up!

 

 

Over the long haul, yes. Those books consistently go up in value or, at the least, hold their value. You don't see prices plunging for Golden Age, PCH, or prime Silver Age books. Not saying you can't get good deals here and there, but they are not nearly as volatile as speculator-driven modern books. Are you disputing this?

 

In real money terms they do not always go up. How are GA westerns doing?

 

Golden Age westerns have never been "hot" as far as I know. There are genres of Golden Age books that you can get for cheap and may have trouble selling for what you paid. That is why I said "prime" Golden Age. You know, the popular stuff that most collectors actually want?

 

Which can and do change over what you call "the long haul". (thumbs u

 

It's hard to say if Golden Age westerns were every "hot" has a back issue, but they must have sold well for the publishers since they produced so many. I don't think many of these books had a back issue market prior to the 50s/60s since comic fans were not organized before then.

 

Some of the best selling comics and characters have and will continue to fall out of favor. Tarzan, Buck Rogers, Walt Disney, Looney Tunes. We are seeing it now with the once popular character the Punisher. Like Tarzan, Buck Rogers, etc. Punisher does have a following, but it is clearly much smaller than it was at it's peak in the 80s and 90s.

[natevegas]

Take 6 minutes out of your day to watch this.

It really sums up at least film wise major problems on the horizon.

[CongoBill]

My main focus of collecting is silver & bronze age keys, and GA pre-code horror. I think I'm crash proof

 

 

The only people who need to worry about a crash or a bubble are the speculators putting their money into modern books, which will always be volatile because, in most cases, there are more than enough high-grade copies to go around once the speculators let go of their copies. And, yes, that includes those supposedly "rare" variant editions.

 

Buy Golden Age, Pre-Code Horror, and prime Silver Age books and you don't really need to worry. Those books will always go up and, at the worst, hold their value.

 

They always go up!

 

 

Over the long haul, yes. Those books consistently go up in value or, at the least, hold their value. You don't see prices plunging for Golden Age, PCH, or prime Silver Age books. Not saying you can't get good deals here and there, but they are not nearly as volatile as speculator-driven modern books. Are you disputing this?

 

In real money terms they do not always go up. How are GA westerns doing?

 

Golden Age westerns have never been "hot" as far as I know. There are genres of Golden Age books that you can get for cheap and may have trouble selling for what you paid. That is why I said "prime" Golden Age. You know, the popular stuff that most collectors actually want?

 

Which can and do change over what you call "the long haul". (thumbs u

 

 

I'm not quite sure what your point is.

[CongoBill]

My main focus of collecting is silver & bronze age keys, and GA pre-code horror. I think I'm crash proof

 

 

The only people who need to worry about a crash or a bubble are the speculators putting their money into modern books, which will always be volatile because, in most cases, there are more than enough high-grade copies to go around once the speculators let go of their copies. And, yes, that includes those supposedly "rare" variant editions.

 

Buy Golden Age, Pre-Code Horror, and prime Silver Age books and you don't really need to worry. Those books will always go up and, at the worst, hold their value.

 

They always go up!

 

 

Over the long haul, yes. Those books consistently go up in value or, at the least, hold their value. You don't see prices plunging for Golden Age, PCH, or prime Silver Age books. Not saying you can't get good deals here and there, but they are not nearly as volatile as speculator-driven modern books. Are you disputing this?

 

In real money terms they do not always go up. How are GA westerns doing?

 

Golden Age westerns have never been "hot" as far as I know. There are genres of Golden Age books that you can get for cheap and may have trouble selling for what you paid. That is why I said "prime" Golden Age. You know, the popular stuff that most collectors actually want?

 

Which can and do change over what you call "the long haul". (thumbs u

 

It's hard to say if Golden Age westerns were every "hot" has a back issue, but they must have sold well for the publishers since they produced so many. I don't think many of these books had a back issue market prior to the 50s/60s since comic fans were not organized before then.

 

Some of the best selling comics and characters have and will continue to fall out of favor. Tarzan, Buck Rogers, Walt Disney, Looney Tunes. We are seeing it now with the once popular character the Punisher. Like Tarzan, Buck Rogers, etc. Punisher does have a following, but it is clearly much smaller than it was at it's peak in the 80s and 90s.

 

 

I don't know, Spidey #129 continues to be a very in-demand book even though there are plenty of copies out there.

[N/A]

My main focus of collecting is silver & bronze age keys, and GA pre-code horror. I think I'm crash proof

 

 

The only people who need to worry about a crash or a bubble are the speculators putting their money into modern books, which will always be volatile because, in most cases, there are more than enough high-grade copies to go around once the speculators let go of their copies. And, yes, that includes those supposedly "rare" variant editions.

 

Buy Golden Age, Pre-Code Horror, and prime Silver Age books and you don't really need to worry. Those books will always go up and, at the worst, hold their value.

 

They always go up!

 

 

Over the long haul, yes. Those books consistently go up in value or, at the least, hold their value. You don't see prices plunging for Golden Age, PCH, or prime Silver Age books. Not saying you can't get good deals here and there, but they are not nearly as volatile as speculator-driven modern books. Are you disputing this?

 

In real money terms they do not always go up. How are GA westerns doing?

 

Golden Age westerns have never been "hot" as far as I know. There are genres of Golden Age books that you can get for cheap and may have trouble selling for what you paid. That is why I said "prime" Golden Age. You know, the popular stuff that most collectors actually want?

 

Which can and do change over what you call "the long haul". (thumbs u

 

 

I'm not quite sure what your point is.

 

Hindsight is 20/20. What you call "popular" wasn't always and what you call the "long haul" is from the period of inception until now which is a high point. Hardly a case to prove they always go up.

[retrothecollector]

What happened to GA and SA keys, even non-keys for that matter, during the 90's crash?

Curious, as I did not collect those ages back then.

 

They went down, too. The only thing that went up during the general malaise of the late 90's/early 2000's was ultra rare, ultra high grade, or both.

 

If they went down (and that is not my recollection, btw) they did not go down by much. I don't recall Fantastic Four #1 or Amazing Fantasy #15 (or any high-grade, key, prime Gold or Silver books) being dumped on the market for half (or less) of their value.

 

That's because they weren't, and I didn't say anything like that. "They went down" isn't the same thing as "being dumped on the market for half (or less) of their value."

 

However....what does that mean, "being dumped on the market for half (or less) of their value? Do you mean relative to Overstreet? If so, then yes, eBay was the keys to the kingdom. You could buy many, many books, except the ultra rare, or ultra high grade, on eBay for less than they would have cost you in 1993-1995. And that includes all the SA keys, and even substantial portions of GA.

 

If you're not familiar with the great malaise of the late 90's, check out what Overstreet did to almost every book below NM between the 1997 and 1998 OPGs.

 

Let's look at Fantasy #15. We can all agree that that book has been, at least since the 80's, the #1 SA key of all, correct? Great. The good thing is, we don't have to rely on recollection....we can look at the data itself.

 

So, in 2002, there was a sale on Aug 24 of a CGC 6.0 Universal copy for $4,049. I'm assuming it was on eBay, as Heritage doesn't have a record. It's a fair assumption.

 

However....the 1997 OPG lists Fine for $5200.

 

That means, five years AFTER the 1997 OPG, a slabbed copy in 6.0 sold for 22% less than that 1997 OPG value.

 

The biggest, most key book of the SA, right in mid-grade, a solid collectible copy....22% less than the 1997 OPG "value".

 

Then...if we look at the 2001 OPG, we see that the value for a Fine AF #15 is now a shocking $3500...an amazing 33% drop in value. The 2002 OPG, under which this book would have fallen, was $3600.

 

Then, as now, CGC slabs sold for more than raw books, for obvious reasons.

 

So, if you had purchased that book at "guide" in 1997 (and the odds are, you would have), you may not have gotten what would be a 6.0, and restoration free...but you certainly would have paid more for it than if you bought an actual restoration free 6.0 on eBay 5 years later.

 

Yes, little was immune from the late 90's/early 00's.

 

There are tens of thousands of examples, just like this.

 

The value of everything went down. Half? No, not for "the key" stuff. But 20% or more, even on the most key of books? Oh yes. Absolutely.

 

It happened.

Finally!!!!!!!! We get some data/input from Here

[mysterio]

Take 6 minutes out of your day to watch this.

It really sums up at least film wise major problems on the horizon.

 

I don't think it will be that long before we get toward the end of this cycle, and it wouldn't surprise me if some of those films slated for a 2020 release never see a theater. It's interesting to see the somewhat mixed reviews that Avengers AOU is getting, and it wouldn't take too many lukewarm films for the wheels to come off the speculation train.

[retrothecollector]

I'm bracing for impact

[natevegas]

Take 6 minutes out of your day to watch this.

It really sums up at least film wise major problems on the horizon.

 

I don't think it will be that long before we get toward the end of this cycle, and it wouldn't surprise me if some of those films slated for a 2020 release never see a theater. It's interesting to see the somewhat mixed reviews that Avengers AOU is getting, and it wouldn't take too many lukewarm films for the wheels to come off the speculation train.

But, but, but, but its a few billion now and tough times for years later. Hope Disney/Marvel, Sony, Warner, and Fox are saving some of this money otherwise I see very tough times ahead once these films drop off...

[ZaCrew]

Take 6 minutes out of your day to watch this.

It really sums up at least film wise major problems on the horizon.

 

He's a bit self righteous but makes some good points, especially about female Thor and black Captain America, but I completely disagree with him about the familiarity going on with the universal properties. I love how Avengers, Captain America, Thor, SHIELD, and even Daredevil are all a part of the same universe.

[Rip]

Take 6 minutes out of your day to watch this.

It really sums up at least film wise major problems on the horizon.

 

He's a bit self righteous but makes some good points, especially about female Thor and black Captain America, but I completely disagree with him about the familiarity going on with the universal properties. I love how Avengers, Captain America, Thor, SHIELD, and even Daredevil are all a part of the same universe.

 

Seems like he just started reading comics/watching super-hero movies.

He should watch Daredevil, its nothing like the other Marvel stuff, (Although I think he made this before DD) and I thought Guardians was different from say the Captain America movies. Too many other things I disagreed with

[LOC Collectibles]

Take 6 minutes out of your day to watch this.

It really sums up at least film wise major problems on the horizon.

 

He had me at Aunt May spinoff..

[mysterio]

Take 6 minutes out of your day to watch this.

It really sums up at least film wise major problems on the horizon.

 

He's a bit self righteous but makes some good points, especially about female Thor and black Captain America, but I completely disagree with him about the familiarity going on with the universal properties. I love how Avengers, Captain America, Thor, SHIELD, and even Daredevil are all a part of the same universe.

 

Seems like he just started reading comics/watching super-hero movies.

He should watch Daredevil, its nothing like the other Marvel stuff, (Although I think he made this before DD) and I thought Guardians was different from say the Captain America movies. Too many other things I disagreed with

 

Even if he just started reading/watching, that'd basically put him with the vast majority of movie goers who buy these tickets that make the billions. Hell, if he's reading comics that'd put him in a fairly exclusive group, as most who see and enjoy these films aren't regular readers and most have never read, I'd wager. When that watcher loses interest, then the MCU has problems.

 

And Guardians was excellent, but it was also totally following the "misfit team can't get along but pull it together when it counts" formula. And, like Avengers 2, the Guardians sequel won't have uniqueness going for it, and will have to be good on its own merits. That will be another tough test of the MCU's staying power.

[H0RR0RSH0W]

Some of the best selling comics and characters have and will continue to fall out of favor. Tarzan, Buck Rogers, Walt Disney, Looney Tunes. We are seeing it now with the once popular character the Punisher. Like Tarzan, Buck Rogers, etc. Punisher does have a following, but it is clearly much smaller than it was at it's peak in the 80s and 90s.

 

 

I don't know, Spidey #129 continues to be a very in-demand book even though there are plenty of copies out there.

 

 

Myself being a long time fan of Punisher, interest in just that one issue of Spidey is I am afraid not going to be a strong enough pull to bring the other books up along with it. A series like The Punisher is easy to lose interest in when it ceases publication.So even with a regular series or a continued regular appearance of Frank Castle in crossovers then I believe interest will continue to wane.

[mysterio]

Some of the best selling comics and characters have and will continue to fall out of favor. Tarzan, Buck Rogers, Walt Disney, Looney Tunes. We are seeing it now with the once popular character the Punisher. Like Tarzan, Buck Rogers, etc. Punisher does have a following, but it is clearly much smaller than it was at it's peak in the 80s and 90s.

 

 

I don't know, Spidey #129 continues to be a very in-demand book even though there are plenty of copies out there.

 

 

Myself being a long time fan of Punisher, interest in just that one issue of Spidey is I am afraid not going to be a strong enough pull to bring the other books up along with it. A series like The Punisher is easy to lose interest in when it ceases publication.So even with a regular series or a continued regular appearance of Frank Castle in crossovers then I believe interest will continue to wane.

 

First appearances are always big, but that doesn't translate into increased demand for later appearances or titles. Lately even second appearances are pretty dead, ASM #135 being the pertinent example here (even with one of the best covers in that stretch of the run). That isn't a comment on the Punisher and his appeal (or lack thereof) but a reflection of the strong emphasis on "first appearance or bust" in this current market.

[Gatsby77]

Exactly.

 

25 years ago Punisher appearances were hot across the board:

 

His early ASM appearances (through 202 & Annual 15)

The limited series (# 1 a quick sale at $35-45)

Ongoing # 1, 10

Punisher War Journal (# 1 & 6 at $20 per)

 

And he was so hot he guest-starred in a different Marvel book nearly monthly.

 

He was easily as popular as Wolverine & their respective first appearances were comparably priced.

 

Today? Slow movers across the board.

 

ASM 129 is an outlier that only proves 1st appearances are hot, when a generation ago it was "Punisher appearances"

[H0RR0RSH0W]

First appearances are always big, but that doesn't translate into increased demand for later appearances or titles. Lately even second appearances are pretty dead, ASM #135 being the pertinent example here (even with one of the best covers in that stretch of the run). That isn't a comment on the Punisher and his appeal (or lack thereof) but a reflection of the strong emphasis on "first appearance or bust" in this current market.

 

 

This is an interesting point you make here. I thought people were just gaga for Spidey.

 

I have been watching selling and asking prices for the main Punisher titled books and they are currently at a low.

[oldmilwaukee6er]

What will the start of a crash look like?

 

I'm thinking stacks of new variants sitting forever on LCS shelves or ebay drowning in slabbed books.

I'll tell you what it could look like: a lot like 1993.

 

Reading and enjoyment of the medium replaced by multiple buying and enthusiasm for profit.

 

Publishers ramping up gimmicks, in this case more and more 1:X variants, leading to retailers ramping up orders to get these variants to sell.

 

Buyers suddenly realizing these variants are Franklin Mint items.

 

Retailers getting stuck with reams of regular covers, and not being able to sell the variants for enough to cover the orders.

 

LCSs with unpayable Diamond bills going out of business.

 

 

Signs of bubbles

Limited editions

HQ printing / paper

Mainstream press focus

Movies! Buzz about adaptation to other mediums

Pandering to collectors specifically- variants, polybags, gimmicks, novelty items

Expansion in price guide publications

Enormous supply of high grade

Increase in specialty shops

Increase prices (e.g. Marvel 65c > $1.25 in 4-5yrs)

Companies cashing out. E.g. like Valiant > Acclaim for $65M or Valiant to China for $100M

Constant reboots

 

Bubbles are good thing for us as collectors, provided we recognize them for what they are and are commited to the long haul

 

Signs of bust

Declining sales & print runs

2/3 of specialty shops close

Major company bankruptcy (ala Marvel ’97)

Poor decisions about popular series, major characters

Decay in non-regular comic colleting community- e.g. speculators, cosplay, cons, movies, overall geek culture zeitgeist

External factors. E.g. Diamond vs Capitol distribution

Loss of focus on art and stories

 

Just think… Valiant’s movies could suck and they could crash the market for the second time in 25 years.