Are key comics good investments?

[delekkerste]

How many Chinese, Japanese, Indian or Arab collectors are there in the market today? Heck, if we can get every person in China and India to buy a single copy of the overstocked 90s drek, that problem would solve itself.

It strikes me as silly to talk about demographics without looking at the much larger world.

Disney is taking Marvel worldwide, adding two billion possible collectors.

 

Nope. Disney taking Marvel worldwide is adding two billion possible moviegoers, not vintage Marvel comic collectors. You want to make that bet, bet on the pure-play (Disney stock) instead instead of a third derivative play like vintage comics. For a young person growing up in China, India or the Middle East today, what convoluted path do you envision that would make them want to buy slabbed American comics from the 1960s and 1970s or drek from the '90s that they have no nostalgic connection to and in a language that many/most of them can't even read? Even in a very manga-obsessed culture like Japan, how many of those hundreds of millions of Japanese over the past several generations got into American comics? I'm not saying that these countries won't spawn collectors in the future. Enough to offset the demographics and infinitely fragmented interests in the post-1995 digital era? As a gambling man, Bill, you wouldn't bet on this unless someone gave you some reaaaaallllllly reaaloooooooooong odds.

[ciorac]

It would be great to have a map to follow, but we don't. Sans a map, I am forced to use past experience as a guide. While past performance is no indication of future results, would you pick Mike Trout or Stephen Drew to pinch hit for you?

 

I use past experience all the time. If I didn't, I wouldn't know what a boom and bust looked like.

 

The analogy about pinch-hitters doesn't make any sense in this context. You can look at batting averages from the current season or recent seasons to make an educated guess about how an individual will perform if you put him in now. On the other hand, the comic book market has gone from early stages (yes, it had been around for a long time, but it was a fragmented, undeveloped mess with AF #15s trading for 2 cents on today's dollar) to maturity over the past 30 years. The next 30 years will show the market go from maturity to late maturity or maturity to decline. Either way, it won't look anything like the past 30 years - you can throw out your historical roadmap and bet your bottom dollar on that.

 

Not all investments need to be 20-30 year investments. I guess that's why there are day traders in the stock market? Which is something I admit I know nothing about

 

However, the guy that bought the Tec 27 that sold for $725,000 last week made a $160K investment seven years ago that paid off quite well in my view. I'd be quite content with my half a million dollar profit, and wouldn't worry about what Tec 27 might be worth in 20 years

[drbanner]

A good, old fashioned Comic Book Crash thread, reminds me of the Golden Age of the Boards....where's Bugaboo?? I'll have to invite JC over here since he's still around.

 

While 5-figure prices for mid-grade Silver Age Keys are pretty astounding by themselves, what's more amazing to me are the sheer number of books (semi-key Silver and Bronze Age) that are now selling for 4+ figures. I would love to see some stats from GPA and the number of unique issues that have sold for over $1,000 over time, it's totally silly-season on some of these obscure, movie tie-in books.

 

I'll try to put my hands on it for a scan, but about 20 years ago Doug Sulipa (I think?) had an article published in the CBM asking "What Bronze Age Book will break $1,000?". I believe at the time there had been a few sales like that, but it was a pretty interesting read and would be amusing to read now.

 

I don't know where all the money's coming from, but it's coming...maybe Jay Parrino's vision has come true.

[Gatsby77]

How many Chinese, Japanese, Indian or Arab collectors are there in the market today? Heck, if we can get every person in China and India to buy a single copy of the overstocked 90s drek, that problem would solve itself.

It strikes me as silly to talk about demographics without looking at the much larger world.

Disney is taking Marvel worldwide, adding two billion possible collectors.

 

Nope. Disney taking Marvel worldwide is adding two billion possible moviegoers, not vintage Marvel comic collectors. You want to make that bet, bet on the pure-play (Disney stock) instead instead of a third derivative play like vintage comics. For a young person growing up in China, India or the Middle East today, what convoluted path do you envision that would make them want to buy slabbed American comics from the 1960s and 1970s or drek from the '90s in language that they have no nostalgic connection to and that many/most of them can't even read? Even in a very manga-obsessed culture like Japan, how many of those hundreds of millions of Japanese over the past several generations got into American comics? I'm not saying that these countries won't spawn collectors in the future. Enough to offset the demographics and infinitely fragmented interests in the post-1995 digital era? As a gambling man, Bill, you wouldn't bet on this unless someone gave you some reaaaaallllllly reaaloooooooooong odds.

 

I can speak to this from the Japanese perspective, given that I studied there ~20 years ago.

 

I brought over about 100 mainstream comics as housewarming gifts -- a mixture of superhero, cartoon, and Archie. Nobody cared. Not one child, teenager or college student was at all interested. I literally threw them out.

 

And this is in a culture where Manga is far more mainstream than the U.S. (i.e., widely read by adult commuters).

 

Even worse -- I looked in vain around Tokyo for Japanese reprints of U.S. comics. In 10 months of looking I found only Spawn # 1 & 3 (in Japanese) and original Japanese versions of Ghost in the Shell & Akira.

 

Moviegoers = / = comic buyers, even domestically. Ask any comic shop owner -- it's not like the Spider-Man films (even the first 3) spiked an influx of new Spidey subscribers.

[drbanner]

I don't know where all the money's coming from, but it's coming...maybe Jay Parrino's vision has come true.

Speaking of...what is the record for one of Heritage's comic auctions, ~$8 million? Heritage is auctioning off one guy's coin collection over a 2-year period (2014/2015) and the 1st 3 of 4 auctions has netted over $40 Million.

 

Maybe vintage comics are actually cheap?

[delekkerste]

Not all investments need to be 20-30 year investments. I guess that's why there are day traders in the stock market? Which is something I admit I know nothing about

 

However, the guy that bought the Tec 27 that sold for $725,000 last week made a $160K investment seven years ago that paid off quite well in my view. I'd be quite content with my half a million dollar profit, and wouldn't worry about what Tec 27 might be worth in 20 years

 

Sure, and I've said as much - big $$$ books bought at FMV and held for 20-30 years will eventually fall off the demographic cliff, but, what happens over a shorter time frame is, indeed, much less clear. Though, mean reversion and the law of large numbers would suggest that any returns should be more measured than what we've seen over the past decade - years of future returns have already been pulled forward over the past 7 years in this near-zero interest rate environment, not just for comics, but for all asset classes. Could it continue for some time longer? Sure, but this bet looks much more compelling looking in the rear-view mirror than it does going forward.

 

As for the Tec 27 buyer, wasn't it 9-10 years ago (2005-06)? Bill, there's no shortage of things I'd like to buy at 2005 prices (or 2009 or 2011 prices for that matter)! Alas, it's 2015 and I don't have a time machine.

[rjrjr]

 

Funny thing about the early 1980s, the comic market was in decline. It wouldn't be until the mid 80s and afterwards that comics climbed out of the situation. Great time to buy comics because if I recall, many comics were going down in prices, not going up in Overstreet.

 

DC and Marvel had begun converting to the direct market, but hadn't finished with the newsstand at that point. That conversion to the direct market is what brought comics back from the brink.

 

And it also led to a new generation of kids who WOULDN'T discover comics at the newsstand or supermarket, setting up an uncertain future for the hobby.

 

Agreed, but it wasn't like Marvel and DC had a choice. If they stayed with newsstands, they wouldn't be publishing today. The move to the direct market gave them the sales they needed to survive to this day.

 

If Marvel and DC could survive on the newsstand or in retail stores, trust me, they would be there. Simple fact is they can't for whatever reason. Sure, we see them try every now and then, but not with any success.

[rjrjr]

How many Chinese, Japanese, Indian or Arab collectors are there in the market today? Heck, if we can get every person in China and India to buy a single copy of the overstocked 90s drek, that problem would solve itself.

It strikes me as silly to talk about demographics without looking at the much larger world.

Disney is taking Marvel worldwide, adding two billion possible collectors.

 

Yes the mythical foreign collector who is going to swoop in and start buying American comics and ignore their own domestic comics. How many American collectors are there of foreign material? Very, very few.

[shadroch]

How many Chinese, Japanese, Indian or Arab collectors are there in the market today? Heck, if we can get every person in China and India to buy a single copy of the overstocked 90s drek, that problem would solve itself.

It strikes me as silly to talk about demographics without looking at the much larger world.

Disney is taking Marvel worldwide, adding two billion possible collectors.

 

Yes the mythical foreign collector who is going to swoop in and start buying American comics and ignore their own domestic comics. How many American collectors are there of foreign material? Very, very few.

Kimi

 

 

For key books, you only need a few. I'm not saying the New markets will bring in millions of collectors, but I do believe they may bring in hundreds of top end collectors. For the high end of the market, evena half dozen Brulato types would be sufficient.

As I intend go be out of the market in the next decade or so, that is pretty much the only horizons I care about.

As for your last question, it appears the American demand for foreign comics has expanded rather nicely.

[Paddy_McShillihan]

Honestly ... Collecting anything other than 1950's War Comics is financial suicide ....

[IntoAnother]

This thread has been quite delightful to read.

Are any commenters comic shop owners? Just curious if they have noticed a large reduction in young ones buying/collecting as compared to a decade or two ago. I understand that nostalgia plays a large part later in lives when it comes to key issues and also wonder if perhaps the keys today may not be the keys for the youth of today later. Is it possible that the NM 98's and BA 12's of the world are more sought after than a low grade Hulk 1 or AF 15? Society has changed quite a bit. The edgier something is the more it seams to fly off the shelf as GTA once did with its shock value.

 

 

[BarryAllen]

Anybody want to buy my SA mid-grade keys...?

 

:shrug:

[Cyclops]

Anybody want to buy my SA mid-grade keys...?

 

:shrug:

 

[kav]

This thread is making me thirsty.

[BarryAllen]

This thread makes my face sad.

[1950's war comics]

Kool Aid !!!...... get your Kool Aid here.........Ice cold Kool Aid !!!

[BarryAllen]

Kool Aid !!!...... get your Kool Aid here.........Ice cold Kool Aid !!!

 

Did someone pee in your Kool-aid when you were a kid?

[ComicConnoisseur]

How many Chinese, Japanese, Indian or Arab collectors are there in the market today? Heck, if we can get every person in China and India to buy a single copy of the overstocked 90s drek, that problem would solve itself.

It strikes me as silly to talk about demographics without looking at the much larger world.

Disney is taking Marvel worldwide, adding two billion possible collectors.

 

Nope. Disney taking Marvel worldwide is adding two billion possible moviegoers, not vintage Marvel comic collectors. You want to make that bet, bet on the pure-play (Disney stock) instead instead of a third derivative play like vintage comics. For a young person growing up in China, India or the Middle East today, what convoluted path do you envision that would make them want to buy slabbed American comics from the 1960s and 1970s or drek from the '90s that they have no nostalgic connection to and in a language that many/most of them can't even read? Even in a very manga-obsessed culture like Japan, how many of those hundreds of millions of Japanese over the past several generations got into American comics? I'm not saying that these countries won't spawn collectors in the future. Enough to offset the demographics and infinitely fragmented interests in the post-1995 digital era? As a gambling man, Bill, you wouldn't bet on this unless someone gave you some reaaaaallllllly reaaloooooooooong odds.

Good points.. btw you are the board member I respect the most when it comes to investment stuff!

 

What do you think of this theory?

A better bet than investing in comics is Disney stock.

In 5 years does anybody REALLY think $20,000 to $100,000 invested in an AF#15 would beat $20,000 to $100,000 invested in Disney stock?

 

[1950's war comics]

Kool Aid !!!...... get your Kool Aid here.........Ice cold Kool Aid !!!

 

Did someone pee in your Kool-aid when you were a kid?

 

I could NEVER with a clear conscience suggest to anyone... especially a younger person without a lot of disposable income that they should invest into key comics books.

I would have NO problem telling everyone and anyone to start an IRA today and to max out their 401K match with a S&P 500 type mutual fund and I would suggest to anyone with a stable job to invest in a house and not rent,

 

I work with many young adults who literally pay zero attention to their 401K and have no IRA and I often bring it to their attention and am helpful and have been praised over the years which is nice.

 

Comics are a great hobby,, I love em and I love my war comics but they are much closer to a pyramid scheme than they are an investment.

[thehumantorch]

This thread has been quite delightful to read.

Are any commenters comic shop owners? Just curious if they have noticed a large reduction in young ones buying/collecting as compared to a decade or two ago. I understand that nostalgia plays a large part later in lives when it comes to key issues and also wonder if perhaps the keys today may not be the keys for the youth of today later. Is it possible that the NM 98's and BA 12's of the world are more sought after than a low grade Hulk 1 or AF 15? Society has changed quite a bit. The edgier something is the more it seams to fly off the shelf as GTA once did with its shock value.

 

 

We're not a comic shop owner but we've set up at 10 to 12 regional/local for the past 9 years.

 

At one time the majority of our customers were grey haired dudes. Now the vast majority are under the age of 30 and many are very young and many are female. It's actually quite shocking how quickly our customer base has changed.

 

Many are buying $1 books or cheap sets to read, some are buying cheaper keys and a few are buying more expensive keys. The majority would consider the first appearance of Deadpool or Harley Quinn or a contemporary hero to be their grail but some point with enthusism to the Avengers 1 or other SA key on the wall.

 

Movies, TV, and these pop culture shows are bring new readers into the hobby. Tons. I don't know how many will transition into long term collectors but I'm sure some will.