Are key comics good investments?

[COI]

 

I'm not saying timelines don't matter; I'm acknowledging that no one has the exact timeline pegged. Your logic seems to be that because no one knows exactly what'll happen or when, we should throw away all this analysis, or not attempt any analysis at all. So no analysis, or "you were wrong 5-10 years ago" is more useful than an attempt to understand the future trajectory of the market using math?

 

My analysis favors, you know, ACTUAL EXPERIENCE in the market we are discussing. Buying and selling on a daily basis. going to conventions, noticing small details like the fact that two of the biggest media companies on earth are investing billions into the future of superheroes, seeing the rise of female readers and collectors, and noting how many new young buyers there are for this material. I find actual, hands-on experience in a market more persuasive than the suspect comparisons and "math" that keep cropping up in this thread.

 

But some people don't want to hear that. The above reasons haven't been good enough in the past, and they won't be good enough now. Not because they aren't valid, but because they don't fit the predetermined conclusion. No matter how strong the market is, and it's stronger than it's ever been, some people will just HAVE to see a cliff around the corner. It's pure conjecture dressed up in fancy languange and specious comparisons, but it will sway some people who don't know any better. And that's unfortunate.

 

So you see nothing but up for comics forever? How long is your growth curve projection? 10 years, 100 years, forever? Even if you compare comics to another "investment hobby" the vast majority of those have seen sharp declines as their main collecting generation base exits the market - this has happened consistently throughout history. Nothing is popular forever.

 

Separately, and I am sure I don't have to point this out to you, but arguing based on personal experience of a few factors of what have driven comic speculation to unprecedented heights, isn't the same thing as proving comics with continue to grow in value for (insert length of time at your leisure).

 

Are we growing readership? Not really.

 

Is readership more diverse? Sure.

 

Is there a growing fan base for the heroes? For sure.

 

Are these new readers and fans going to turn into comic collectors? Some of them maybe, to early to tell for sure.

 

Will these new collectors become "lifers" and want to spend $1,000's of dollars on vintage comics when they "grow up?" I think that is the question on the table and to be honest, it is still unanswered.

 

5-10 years. Beyond that I don't know.

 

I agree with this. I don't think much will change price-wise in the next 5-10 years.

 

Why are we arguing?

[comicnoir]

I like the convention experience. You go inside and it's jammed with young ppl in cosplay outfits hitting the media tables and showing off their young selves in nicely put together outfits. The crowd is so tight you can barely breathe. Where do I go for relief? I know, the vintage comics aisle where old guys in non-hot outfits and fat wallets reach for the top row of the dealer's wall where that really pricey old comic is waiting for a new owner. At last I can get air and stretch my limbs, lots of room. An occasional hot girl skitters by barely noticing the commerce around her. That's not what's important. Sometimes a young guy will make an appearance and want an ASM 129 or some other Spidey. Or a Preacher 1.

 

As I go back to my car with my slim purchases that fit into a small case, at these prices I don't need a box, the young ppl in costumes pile into the car next to me. Their "purchases" seemed to consist of free posters and other giveaways. Their major expenditure was probably admission. I dropped 4 figures in purchases, but ironically I got free admission from a dealer. I always get in free.

 

What's my point? I dunno, just felt like painting a picture.

[jimbo_707]

The 7-11 doesn't carry comics anymore. I'm not saying that motivated people can't find their way to buy comics, but, given how much things have changed and, despite the immense popularity of superheroes in pop culture, it's no wonder that the size of the current readership is a fraction of what it was in the '80s and early '90s. And, fewer readers now means fewer collectors 25 years from now.

 

 

Back in elementary school, whenever I walked or rode my bike the ¾ of a mile to Lawson's for a candy bar, the first thing I saw, right inside the door, was a spinner rack filled with comic books. Occasionally a family member would buy me one to read; at some point I bought a copy of Batman #372 & decided I would save it & keep it in good condition (relatively speaking—I had never heard of polybags or backing boards). I was collecting comic books for months before I knew there was such a thing as a comic book store. There is no way comic book collecting will ever be a mainstream hobby for generation Y. I don't expect an overnight collapse, but there will be a gradual decline. If we ever stop using coins as money, coin collecting will suffer the same fate. (Most coin collectors I know started out by looking for wheat pennies, steel pennies, and buffalo nickels in their loose change.) It's predictable and inevitable.

[jimjum12]

The 7-11 doesn't carry comics anymore. I'm not saying that motivated people can't find their way to buy comics, but, given how much things have changed and, despite the immense popularity of superheroes in pop culture, it's no wonder that the size of the current readership is a fraction of what it was in the '80s and early '90s. And, fewer readers now means fewer collectors 25 years from now.

 

 

Back in elementary school, whenever I walked or rode my bike the ¾ of a mile to Lawson's for a candy bar, the first thing I saw, right inside the door, was a spinner rack filled with comic books. Occasionally a family member would buy me one to read; at some point I bought a copy of Batman #372 & decided I would save it & keep it in good condition (relatively speaking—I had never heard of polybags or backing boards). I was collecting comic books for months before I knew there was such a thing as a comic book store. There is no way comic book collecting will ever be a mainstream hobby for generation Y. I don't expect an overnight collapse, but there will be a gradual decline. If we ever stop using coins as money, coin collecting will suffer the same fate. (Most coin collectors I know started out by looking for wheat pennies, steel pennies, and buffalo nickels in their loose change.) It's predictable and inevitable.

 

..... Marvel and DC both seem to be missing valuable opportunities to advertise the existence of the actual comics and the shops that sell them. Ads could be imbedded in the opening credits, flyers with discount coupons for local shops made available (co-op ?)..... GOD BLESS....

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[BarryAllen]

The 7-11 doesn't carry comics anymore. I'm not saying that motivated people can't find their way to buy comics, but, given how much things have changed and, despite the immense popularity of superheroes in pop culture, it's no wonder that the size of the current readership is a fraction of what it was in the '80s and early '90s. And, fewer readers now means fewer collectors 25 years from now.

 

 

Back in elementary school, whenever I walked or rode my bike the ¾ of a mile to Lawson's for a candy bar, the first thing I saw, right inside the door, was a spinner rack filled with comic books. Occasionally a family member would buy me one to read; at some point I bought a copy of Batman #372 & decided I would save it & keep it in good condition (relatively speaking—I had never heard of polybags or backing boards). I was collecting comic books for months before I knew there was such a thing as a comic book store. There is no way comic book collecting will ever be a mainstream hobby for generation Y. I don't expect an overnight collapse, but there will be a gradual decline. If we ever stop using coins as money, coin collecting will suffer the same fate. (Most coin collectors I know started out by looking for wheat pennies, steel pennies, and buffalo nickels in their loose change.) It's predictable and inevitable.

 

..... Marvel and DC both seem to be missing valuable opportunities to advertise the existence of the actual comics and the shops that sell them. Ads could be imbedded in the opening credits, flyers with discount coupons for local shops made available (co-op ?)..... GOD BLESS....

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

That would be incredibly difficult to manage, it is hard enough to get a large sponsor like Walmart or Target to tag into something of that scale. Let alone small local shops...

 

However, you are right they could be advertising the comics. Really not sure why they don't do that other than they are different "companies."

[jimbo_707]

The 7-11 doesn't carry comics anymore. I'm not saying that motivated people can't find their way to buy comics, but, given how much things have changed and, despite the immense popularity of superheroes in pop culture, it's no wonder that the size of the current readership is a fraction of what it was in the '80s and early '90s. And, fewer readers now means fewer collectors 25 years from now.

 

 

Back in elementary school, whenever I walked or rode my bike the ¾ of a mile to Lawson's for a candy bar, the first thing I saw, right inside the door, was a spinner rack filled with comic books. Occasionally a family member would buy me one to read; at some point I bought a copy of Batman #372 & decided I would save it & keep it in good condition (relatively speaking—I had never heard of polybags or backing boards). I was collecting comic books for months before I knew there was such a thing as a comic book store. There is no way comic book collecting will ever be a mainstream hobby for generation Y. I don't expect an overnight collapse, but there will be a gradual decline. If we ever stop using coins as money, coin collecting will suffer the same fate. (Most coin collectors I know started out by looking for wheat pennies, steel pennies, and buffalo nickels in their loose change.) It's predictable and inevitable.

 

..... Marvel and DC both seem to be missing valuable opportunities to advertise the existence of the actual comics and the shops that sell them. Ads could be imbedded in the opening credits, flyers with discount coupons for local shops made available (co-op ?)..... GOD BLESS....

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

That would be incredibly difficult to manage, it is hard enough to get a large sponsor like Walmart or Target to tag into something of that scale. Let alone small local shops...

 

However, you are right they could be advertising the comics. Really not sure why they don't do that other than they are different "companies."

I don't think coupons or discounts would make much difference to kids. Kids are impulse buyers, not bargain hunters. What matters is exposure: seeing comic books in front of them every day, not just when they go to a movie.

 

The truth is, kids today have so many other things—like their phones—that occupy their time, I just don't see comic books making a comeback. Kids don't have to look for things to do the way kids did back in the 70s & 80s. Even by the 90s most kids were on so many friggin' sports teams that they wouldn't have had time for comic books. I suspect those factors are among the reasons why the spinner racks disappeared in the first place.

[jimjum12]

The 7-11 doesn't carry comics anymore. I'm not saying that motivated people can't find their way to buy comics, but, given how much things have changed and, despite the immense popularity of superheroes in pop culture, it's no wonder that the size of the current readership is a fraction of what it was in the '80s and early '90s. And, fewer readers now means fewer collectors 25 years from now.

 

 

Back in elementary school, whenever I walked or rode my bike the ¾ of a mile to Lawson's for a candy bar, the first thing I saw, right inside the door, was a spinner rack filled with comic books. Occasionally a family member would buy me one to read; at some point I bought a copy of Batman #372 & decided I would save it & keep it in good condition (relatively speaking—I had never heard of polybags or backing boards). I was collecting comic books for months before I knew there was such a thing as a comic book store. There is no way comic book collecting will ever be a mainstream hobby for generation Y. I don't expect an overnight collapse, but there will be a gradual decline. If we ever stop using coins as money, coin collecting will suffer the same fate. (Most coin collectors I know started out by looking for wheat pennies, steel pennies, and buffalo nickels in their loose change.) It's predictable and inevitable.

 

..... Marvel and DC both seem to be missing valuable opportunities to advertise the existence of the actual comics and the shops that sell them. Ads could be imbedded in the opening credits, flyers with discount coupons for local shops made available (co-op ?)..... GOD BLESS....

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

That would be incredibly difficult to manage, it is hard enough to get a large sponsor like Walmart or Target to tag into something of that scale. Let alone small local shops...

 

However, you are right they could be advertising the comics. Really not sure why they don't do that other than they are different "companies."

I don't think coupons or discounts would make much difference to kids. Kids are impulse buyers, not bargain hunters. What matters is exposure: seeing comic books in front of them every day, not just when they go to a movie.

 

The truth is, kids today have so many other things—like their phones—that occupy their time, I just don't see comic books making a comeback. Kids don't have to look for things to do the way kids did back in the 70s & 80s. Even by the 90s most kids were on so many friggin' sports teams that they wouldn't have had time for comic books. I suspect those factors are among the reasons why the spinner racks disappeared in the first place.

 

..... and probably no small reason why sales began to taper off around that time. Both times that I stayed from comics, I was pulled back in by a spinner rack...... both 7-11 I think the drug store and grocery store were the last places I remember them..... and honestly, there were always tons left unsold on them. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[BarryAllen]

The 7-11 doesn't carry comics anymore. I'm not saying that motivated people can't find their way to buy comics, but, given how much things have changed and, despite the immense popularity of superheroes in pop culture, it's no wonder that the size of the current readership is a fraction of what it was in the '80s and early '90s. And, fewer readers now means fewer collectors 25 years from now.

 

 

Back in elementary school, whenever I walked or rode my bike the ¾ of a mile to Lawson's for a candy bar, the first thing I saw, right inside the door, was a spinner rack filled with comic books. Occasionally a family member would buy me one to read; at some point I bought a copy of Batman #372 & decided I would save it & keep it in good condition (relatively speaking—I had never heard of polybags or backing boards). I was collecting comic books for months before I knew there was such a thing as a comic book store. There is no way comic book collecting will ever be a mainstream hobby for generation Y. I don't expect an overnight collapse, but there will be a gradual decline. If we ever stop using coins as money, coin collecting will suffer the same fate. (Most coin collectors I know started out by looking for wheat pennies, steel pennies, and buffalo nickels in their loose change.) It's predictable and inevitable.

 

..... Marvel and DC both seem to be missing valuable opportunities to advertise the existence of the actual comics and the shops that sell them. Ads could be imbedded in the opening credits, flyers with discount coupons for local shops made available (co-op ?)..... GOD BLESS....

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

That would be incredibly difficult to manage, it is hard enough to get a large sponsor like Walmart or Target to tag into something of that scale. Let alone small local shops...

 

However, you are right they could be advertising the comics. Really not sure why they don't do that other than they are different "companies."

I don't think coupons or discounts would make much difference to kids. Kids are impulse buyers, not bargain hunters. What matters is exposure: seeing comic books in front of them every day, not just when they go to a movie.

 

The truth is, kids today have so many other things—like their phones—that occupy their time, I just don't see comic books making a comeback. Kids don't have to look for things to do the way kids did back in the 70s & 80s. Even by the 90s most kids were on so many friggin' sports teams that they wouldn't have had time for comic books. I suspect those factors are among the reasons why the spinner racks disappeared in the first place.

 

I read a ton of digital comics and I don't see why they wouldn't either. Paper comics are a whole different beast (realistically the paper medium is going the way of the dodo). Kids these days read a ton - if you need proof think Twilight or Divergent, Hunger Games, etc.

 

It is definitely a matter of exposure that comics even exist though, regardless of medium.

[Brock]

I read a ton of digital comics and I don't see why they wouldn't either. Paper comics are a whole different beast (realistically the paper medium is going the way of the dodo). Kids these days read a ton - if you need proof think Twilight or Divergent, Hunger Games, etc.

 

It is definitely a matter of exposure that comics even exist though, regardless of medium.

 

I think we sometimes misunderstand what kids are reading, too... I have two kids under 10, and they're constantly reading comics... But not the kind we read. They're reading Super Diaper Baby and Sisters and Drama and Bone and Babysitters Club and Amulet, and on and on...

 

Raina Telgemeier probably sells more than a million copies a year of her comics, and she sells them in honest-to-goodness printed on paper formats... But kids today will buy a paper back with 200 pages and a complete story for $10, rather than a 20-page fraction of a story for $4. And they're happy to go see a movie like Avengers or Batman with dad's favourite comic book characters, but that's not what they want to read.

 

In some ways, comics are healthier than ever - but not the kind we collect. While we're busy arguing whether Marvel Preview #7 is a comic or whether Rocket Racoon's first "comic" appearance is in a floppy, the kids are experimenting with formats that are - for them - more engaging, more fun and more desirable. Some day, they may even be more collectable...

[TomG]

An amusing and poorly detailed article from Bloomberg.com from 2013.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/articles/2013-10-30/those-comics-in-your-basement-probably-worthless#p1

[thunsicker]

Amusing and poorly detailed, but there is a lesson to be learned from it.

[BarryAllen]

I read a ton of digital comics and I don't see why they wouldn't either. Paper comics are a whole different beast (realistically the paper medium is going the way of the dodo). Kids these days read a ton - if you need proof think Twilight or Divergent, Hunger Games, etc.

 

It is definitely a matter of exposure that comics even exist though, regardless of medium.

 

I think we sometimes misunderstand what kids are reading, too... I have two kids under 10, and they're constantly reading comics... But not the kind we read. They're reading Super Diaper Baby and Sisters and Drama and Bone and Babysitters Club and Amulet, and on and on...

 

Raina Telgemeier probably sells more than a million copies a year of her comics, and she sells them in honest-to-goodness printed on paper formats... But kids today will buy a paper back with 200 pages and a complete story for $10, rather than a 20-page fraction of a story for $4. And they're happy to go see a movie like Avengers or Batman with dad's favourite comic book characters, but that's not what they want to read.

 

In some ways, comics are healthier than ever - but not the kind we collect. While we're busy arguing whether Marvel Preview #7 is a comic or whether Rocket Racoon's first "comic" appearance is in a floppy, the kids are experimenting with formats that are - for them - more engaging, more fun and more desirable. Some day, they may even be more collectable...

 

Makes sense, also ties into the HUGE popularity of TPBs these days. A single comic at $3.99 for ~20 pages of art/story is just plain ridiculous...

[thunsicker]

I read a ton of digital comics and I don't see why they wouldn't either. Paper comics are a whole different beast (realistically the paper medium is going the way of the dodo). Kids these days read a ton - if you need proof think Twilight or Divergent, Hunger Games, etc.

 

It is definitely a matter of exposure that comics even exist though, regardless of medium.

 

I think we sometimes misunderstand what kids are reading, too... I have two kids under 10, and they're constantly reading comics... But not the kind we read. They're reading Super Diaper Baby and Sisters and Drama and Bone and Babysitters Club and Amulet, and on and on...

 

Raina Telgemeier probably sells more than a million copies a year of her comics, and she sells them in honest-to-goodness printed on paper formats... But kids today will buy a paper back with 200 pages and a complete story for $10, rather than a 20-page fraction of a story for $4. And they're happy to go see a movie like Avengers or Batman with dad's favourite comic book characters, but that's not what they want to read.

 

In some ways, comics are healthier than ever - but not the kind we collect. While we're busy arguing whether Marvel Preview #7 is a comic or whether Rocket Racoon's first "comic" appearance is in a floppy, the kids are experimenting with formats that are - for them - more engaging, more fun and more desirable. Some day, they may even be more collectable...

 

Makes sense, also ties into the HUGE popularity of TPBs these days. A single comic at $3.99 for ~20 pages of art/story is just plain ridiculous...

 

None of my kids read comics. But they read manga all the time. And given the choice they read them on their iPhones.

[1950's war comics]

Mycomicshop.com's latest newsletter explains that they are no longer buying collections at this time

[Peter G]

NewKadia.com seems to do well

[Sqeggs]

Why would demand for AF 15 continue to increase as rapidly as it has in the past? Where is the source of demand to drive prices substantially higher going to come from?

 

People asked this very same question 5-10 years ago. It went something like this:

 

Where is the demand going to come from with three movies already out? Where is the demand going to come from with an aging reader base and dwindling readership on monthly floppies? Where is the demand going to come from with price tags for this issue already in the five to six figure range? Where is the demand going to come from with younger collectors distracted by more and more digital content and limitless entertainment?

 

And yet here we are. I wish I'd picked up a dozen copies when this was discussed back then.

 

This thread probably should be a sticky, though we probably differ on the reason why.

 

But in the past 5 to 10 years, the following has happened:

 

1. Third party grading has become much more widely accepted, making buying and selling much easier than it was.

 

2. The auction houses (Heritage, CL, and CC) have greatly expanded their operations.

 

3. We have had a series of very successful SH movies.

 

4. Baby boomers, who have been a good part of the market, are 5 to 10 years closer to retirement (and death! )

 

5. We've had another 5 to 10 years in which comics have failed to regain the mass readership they once had.

 

AND ... 6. Prices are much higher than they were.

 

Once again, to believe comics to be poor INVESTMENTS it's not necessary to believe the market is about to collapse.

 

To be a good investment, your $100K AF15 doesn't have to just avoid becoming a $50K AF 15 in 10 years, it has to become something like a $250K AF 15.

 

There are plenty of reasons to think this won't happen; namely that most of the factors that have been driving demand to this point have largely had their effect by now.

 

The only way that the price increases of the next 10 years will resemble those of the past 10 years is if new sources of demand appear. Either people not currently much involved in the comic market have to become more involved or people not involved at all have to enter the market.

 

Is it conceivable that significant numbers of new people will enter the market who are willing to pay five or six figures or more for comics? Sure. But I have trouble imagining who these people might be, so it seems very unlikely to me.

[Sqeggs]

I like the convention experience. You go inside and it's jammed with young ppl in cosplay outfits hitting the media tables and showing off their young selves in nicely put together outfits. The crowd is so tight you can barely breathe. Where do I go for relief? I know, the vintage comics aisle where old guys in non-hot outfits and fat wallets reach for the top row of the dealer's wall where that really pricey old comic is waiting for a new owner. At last I can get air and stretch my limbs, lots of room. An occasional hot girl skitters by barely noticing the commerce around her. That's not what's important. Sometimes a young guy will make an appearance and want an ASM 129 or some other Spidey. Or a Preacher 1.

 

As I go back to my car with my slim purchases that fit into a small case, at these prices I don't need a box, the young ppl in costumes pile into the car next to me. Their "purchases" seemed to consist of free posters and other giveaways. Their major expenditure was probably admission. I dropped 4 figures in purchases, but ironically I got free admission from a dealer. I always get in free.

 

What's my point? I dunno, just felt like painting a picture.

 

I see your point!

 

When you go to one of the larger comic cons, the vintage comic dealers are not the ones attracting most of the crowd. Even if--and it's a really big if--the younger fans will eventually be interested in collecting comics at some point, are they actually relevant to this discussion?

 

I assume this discussion is about buying GA/SA/BA keys at current prices and expecting returns over the next 10 years that are similar to the returns over the past 10 years. I doubt that many of the young people showing up at comic cons these days will ever be meaningful participants in that market.

[VintageComics]

Deflation and inflation will also affect collectibles markets.

 

We've been in a deflationary economy for so long that people are tired of just having their money sit in the bank at zero to no interest or their retirements wiped out.

[Ditch Fahrenheit]

Deflation and inflation will also affect collectibles markets.

 

We've been in a deflationary economy for so long that people are tired of just having their money sit in the bank at zero to no interest or their retirements wiped out.

 

Agreed. I haven't read this thread completely, so it may have been mentioned; but "sideline" money looking for a return may have played a fairly large role in recent price appreciation. Investors were being coached to put their money into key comics - keys being seen as stable and having a decent ROI.

 

These investors view comics like stock. They could care less about the book, it's the return that's important. As the economy improves and the Fed raises rates, I think comics will look a lot less attractive to these investors and they'll sell with impunity to buy other more attractive investments. And, of course, if these investors are significant, key comic supply will increase and prices will drop. How much is anyone's guess.

[NewWorldOrder]

Deflation and inflation will also affect collectibles markets.

 

We've been in a deflationary economy for so long that people are tired of just having their money sit in the bank at zero to no interest or their retirements wiped out.

 

Agreed. I haven't read this thread completely, so it may have been mentioned; but "sideline" money looking for a return may have played a fairly large role in recent price appreciation. Investors were being coached to put their money into key comics - keys being seen as stable and having a decent ROI.

 

These investors view comics like stock. They could care less about the book, it's the return that's important. As the economy improves and the Fed raises rates, I think comics will look a lot less attractive to these investors and they'll sell with impunity to buy other more attractive investments. And, of course, if these investors are significant, key comic supply will increase and prices will drop. How much is anyone's guess.

 

Movies, movies, movies, and add some Netflix. Lets see what happens when that merry go round stops. That is the real question.

 

Pop culture media controls the upswing of books more than investors of what you are referring to.

 

I think we over estimate the investors who blindly take extra money and buy books they have no interest in.

 

It is now 2015 we need to all stop thinking that nothing in our economy has since recovered. Everyone in my college class of friends are all living the American Dream. Making more $ and living good.