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GA With Less Than Ten Copies in the CGC Census
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Started by circumstances,

2,844 posts in this topic

skypinkblu

skypinkblu

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On 8/17/2022 at 12:46 PM, PDGray said:

So far I have only seen one that is currently listed on eBay.  He had it at $1000 or best offer, but that's down to $800, which is still more than I can do right now, but I have hopes that it might drop some more.

That particular book is from 1943, which is a bit later than most of the Larsons seem to be - as I have read, although I know there could be outliers.

If you have other leads, please send them my way!!

 

PDG

 

edit: Other ones I am keeping my eyes on are Don Rosa, Twin Cities, Suscha News, although those are all SA or later.  I know that the Okajima's are likely to be well beyond what I can swing as well.

If you are willing to take a non camp Okajima, they are not all insanely priced. There are even some that are lower grades. 

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Kevin.J

Kevin.J

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On 8/18/2022 at 2:03 PM, skypinkblu said:

If you are willing to take a non camp Okajima, they are not all insanely priced. There are even some that are lower grades. 

This

Hi Sha :hi:

Here is one of mine and it still fits the thread with only 6 on the census, the cert said 9.0, I think, it came back an 8.0 but I only paid about $50 for it a few years ago :) 

735547198_INDIANS9.thumb.jpg.3b751715540ece1188e3f7d3f2c55471.jpg

 

Edited by Kevin.J
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PDGray

PDGray

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On 8/18/2022 at 8:03 AM, skypinkblu said:

If you are willing to take a non camp Okajima, they are not all insanely priced. There are even some that are lower grades. 

I would absolutely jump at that opportunity!!  Of course, ideally I would love to have the provenance so that I could submit it and get it back documented if at all possible.  I just love the history of them all.  Any of these books I ever acquire will go into my PC and will eventually pass on to my kids one day.

 

PDG

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skypinkblu

skypinkblu

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On 8/18/2022 at 9:44 AM, PDGray said:

I would absolutely jump at that opportunity!!  Of course, ideally I would love to have the provenance so that I could submit it and get it back documented if at all possible.  I just love the history of them all.  Any of these books I ever acquire will go into my PC and will eventually pass on to my kids one day.

 

PDG

https://comics.ha.com/itm/golden-age-1938-1955-/black-rider-8-1-okajima-pedigree-atlas-1950-cgc-vf-80-off-white-to-white-pages/a/7279-94083.s?type=wantlistid-1369403!creatorid-cewl!linkclicked-image!emailid-08182022-021511.586PM-481373-1369403!itemid-7279_121001!wlem

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sfcityduck

sfcityduck

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On 9/16/2022 at 10:23 AM, PDGray said:

Well, that was fun checking the census to see just how rare some of those books are/were.  I apologize if I have posted some of these earlier in the thread, but I always find it fascinating to see other books in other collections, so I thought I would share here too!!

PDG

To me, this thread graphically illustrates why the census is not necessarily an indicator of rarity for books. For a lot of GA books folks just don't want to pay money to encapsulate them because it is not worth it. The irony of this thread is that a lot of people are showing pics of raw comics that they don't intend to encapsulate. In contrast, you've got pedigrees that were likely encapsulated because they are pedigrees and the owner wanted to preserve the provenance. But, for example, there are five Tarzan 76s on eBay for prices that just don't warrant encapsulation (1 is in the $60 range, the others are less than $20). Is Tarzan 76 rare or scarce? I don't think so. It is unlikely to be encapsulated? Yes ... unless there's a good reason like it is an extremely high grade or to preserve provenance (and yours is both).

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PDGray

PDGray

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On 9/16/2022 at 1:04 PM, sfcityduck said:

To me, this thread graphically illustrates why the census is not necessarily an indicator of rarity for books. For a lot of GA books folks just don't want to pay money to encapsulate them because it is not worth it. The irony of this thread is that a lot of people are showing pics of raw comics that they don't intend to encapsulate. In contrast, you've got pedigrees that were likely encapsulated because they are pedigrees and the owner wanted to preserve the provenance. But, for example, there are five Tarzan 76s on eBay for prices that just don't warrant encapsulation (1 is in the $60 range, the others are less than $20). Is Tarzan 76 rare or scarce? I don't think so. It is unlikely to be encapsulated? Yes ... unless there's a good reason like it is an extremely high grade or to preserve provenance (and yours is both).

Yep, I completely agree with you.  

When I bought most of these books, I bought them because I wanted an example of a book from that particular collection.  I didn't buy it because I specifically wanted a Tarzan 76.  I have a number of other GA Tarzan books that are not graded.  They simply aren't worth the effort to spend the money on getting them graded.  I like having them and preserving them as part of my collection that will go to my kids one day.  If I have the chance to rescue any other old books, I intend to do just that and they probably won't get graded.

So, yes, I think there are probably a lot more Tarzan 76s or Gene Autry 51s or other GA books than what the census shows.  But who is going to spend the money to get any of them graded unless they are that high grade or have that provenance that you suggested?  That is almost certainly a financial loss at this point in time.  Part of me thinks that is sad, but my accountant training says that it just doesn't make sense to spend $50 to get a $5 book graded.

This does raise the question - What percentage of those GA or SA books are actually graded?  I would tend to think relatively few.  I would say less than 1% of my SA books are graded easily.  I think less than 10% of my GA collection is graded, probably far less than that. But what is the number when looked at across any and all available copies of any given book?

 

PDG

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sfcityduck

sfcityduck

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On 9/16/2022 at 11:49 AM, PDGray said:

But what is the number when looked at across any and all available copies of any given book?

 

PDG

My guess is that even with the most valuable books in existence, the ones that are so valuable that there is a strong incentive to encapsulate (for insurance purposes and preservation) even if you are not intending to sell them immediately, the number is well less than half. Good examples:

* Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 1.  The print run was 3,000 copies. Prices are sky high. Still, there are only 1135 copies that have been graded. That's about 37%. And that book was probably largely bought by and is owned by a cohort who are more likely to encapsulate than GA collectors.

* Action 1. The estimates are less than 20% have been slabbed. 

For more common comics, we're talking much lower percentages:

* Four Color 263. A desirable Barks' Donald/Scrooge comic (two major stories and all Barks). But only 55 copies on the census (less than Action 1) despite massive circulation at the time it came out.  There are 52 copies on eBay (just three copies short of the total encapsulated population).  I'd estimate that the percentage encapsulated might be as low as less than 2% (e.g. 2.500+ copies survive) - maybe below 1%. Many Barks Duck comics were very well loved and preserved by their owners, but mostly in low "reading copy" grades. They are the opposite of rare or scarce. But most of those that survive are not viewed as warranting encapsulation by their owners or dealers (only 10 copies below 5.0 have ever been encapsulated and none below 3.0). 

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PDGray

PDGray

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On 9/16/2022 at 2:22 PM, sfcityduck said:

My guess is that even with the most valuable books in existence, the ones that are so valuable that there is a strong incentive to encapsulate (for insurance purposes and preservation) even if you are not intending to sell them immediately, the number is well less than half. Good examples:

* Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 1.  The print run was 3,000 copies. Prices are sky high. Still, there are only 1135 copies that have been graded. That's about 37%. And that book was probably largely bought by and is owned by a cohort who are more likely to encapsulate than GA collectors.

* Action 1. The estimates are less than 20% have been slabbed. 

For more common comics, we're talking much lower percentages:

* Four Color 263. A desirable Barks' Donald/Scrooge comic (two major stories and all Barks). But only 55 copies on the census (less than Action 1) despite massive circulation at the time it came out.  There are 52 copies on eBay (just three copies short of the total encapsulated population).  I'd estimate that the percentage encapsulated might be as low as less than 2% (e.g. 2.500+ copies survive) - maybe below 1%. Many Barks Duck comics were very well loved and preserved by their owners, but mostly in low "reading copy" grades. They are the opposite of rare or scarce. But most of those that survive are not viewed as warranting encapsulation by their owners or dealers (only 10 copies below 5.0 have ever been encapsulated and none below 3.0). 

Fascinating statistics - I love these sorts of studies.  Thank you for your input!

I can't imagine a LOT of these books surviving - probably less than 1% of the total print run are still around would be my guess.  Then figure that a much smaller percentage of that 1% are being sent off to be graded and you end up with a pretty low number.

Yeah, the TMNT is a modern book that has surpassed anything I would have ever guessed - I hate I passed on one back in the late 80s now.  I think that is an unusually high percentage of books to be graded. 

Out of curiousity I am going to run the numbers here - so bear with me as I am doing this on the fly.  Please feel free to correct my math on these, or check the numbers I used as the print run - I know most are likely estimates anyway, but they were what I found on a quick google search.

X-Men 1 (1991) - print run of 8,186,500 - 14249 graded so - 0.17% of the print run graded

Superman 75 (1993) - print run of 750,000 - 3379 graded so - 0.45% of the print run graded

Spawn 1 (1992) - print run of 1,700,000 - 25,393 graded so - 1.49% of the print run graded

 

So, it is all an interesting statistic.  It may or may not have any relevance to what we are talking about as it relates to GA books - but I found it to be a fun exercise anyway.

 

PDG

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plady69

plady69

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On 9/16/2022 at 12:22 PM, sfcityduck said:

My guess is that even with the most valuable books in existence, the ones that are so valuable that there is a strong incentive to encapsulate (for insurance purposes and preservation) even if you are not intending to sell them immediately, the number is well less than half. Good examples:

* Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 1.  The print run was 3,000 copies. Prices are sky high. Still, there are only 1135 copies that have been graded. That's about 37%. And that book was probably largely bought by and is owned by a cohort who are more likely to encapsulate than GA collectors.

* Action 1. The estimates are less than 20% have been slabbed. 

For more common comics, we're talking much lower percentages:

* Four Color 263. A desirable Barks' Donald/Scrooge comic (two major stories and all Barks). But only 55 copies on the census (less than Action 1) despite massive circulation at the time it came out.  There are 52 copies on eBay (just three copies short of the total encapsulated population).  I'd estimate that the percentage encapsulated might be as low as less than 2% (e.g. 2.500+ copies survive) - maybe below 1%. Many Barks Duck comics were very well loved and preserved by their owners, but mostly in low "reading copy" grades. They are the opposite of rare or scarce. But most of those that survive are not viewed as warranting encapsulation by their owners or dealers (only 10 copies below 5.0 have ever been encapsulated and none below 3.0). 

Great point. A lot of long time collector’s have no interest in slabbing unless they are ready to sell. That would be me. I will put the raw copies here or on eBay, and sell the rest through and auction site.

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