Price History of Amazing Fantasy 15 4 4

[Aman619]

that's a new wrinkle in collecting comics.  It was always a long and slow gain over time.  Now certain issues can get hot quick and cool off quick too.  Of course, this era should get an asterisk due to the influence of outside forces unrelated to comics: The Great Covid Disruption period.

[Big Brother]

Who cares about embossed covers from the 1990s now? Or varient covers?

[sledgehammer]

On 1/3/2023 at 7:30 PM, Big Brother said:

Well, here's something new: an updated list of the valuation of Amazing Fantasy #15. I'd like to point out that the ONLY reason that someone would pay more than a half-million dollars for a comic book is if he thinks he can sell it for more later. And based on the list below, he wouldn't be wrong. All I can say about that is: tulips in Amsterdam.

Prices via Overstreet 9.2 

Amazing Fantasy #15

1970: $16

1971: $18

1972-1977: no data (I have Overstreets for those years, but I'm too lazy to look up the prices)

1978: $40

1979: $80

 

Say what????

I went to the first Chicago comicon in 1976.

It was the first time I saw an AF 15 in person. The guy wanted $700 for it. In today's dollars, that would have been about $3,500, for a 14 year old comic.

The Overstreet I have, from 1979, AF 15 is $600 in fine, and $900 in mint.

[Bronty]

I wasn't collecting yet in 1976, but that strikes me as an egregious price for that time, as I saw copies for sale for those sorts of prices ten years later.   

That being said, I think your point that the price guide prices were generally low is valid.   He definitely tried to show slow and steady increases every year as opposed to big swings up and down; Overstreet did want to manage perception and as I recall he was perfectly forthright about that in the pages of the guide.

[Bronty]

On 1/4/2023 at 2:17 PM, Aman619 said:

that's a new wrinkle in collecting comics.  It was always a long and slow gain over time.  Now certain issues can get hot quick and cool off quick too.  Of course, this era should get an asterisk due to the influence of outside forces unrelated to comics: The Great Covid Disruption period.

I think it all stems back to e-commerce, really, more than covid (covid just exacerbated what was already there).     The internet has been around a long time but its still developing and those developments shape the way we collect.

First it was ebay, and the revelation of being able to sell to other collectors directly, 24/7 365 with payment by money order or check.    Then paypal and immediate payments.      Then GPA, then advancements in online technology making auction houses more important than conventions.     Grading making all of these long distance transactions feasible.    

That all set up lightning quick buying and selling, which set up all sorts of movie and other speculation.     You hear about a movie Tuesday morning and some joker buys 100 copies of the first appearance that afternoon.    

The lack of any kind of delay anywhere along the chain now means that speculative positions which used to take months or more likely years to accumulate in the old days when guys like you and I were coming up...  can now be bought or sold in an afternoon.   

That giant increase in transactional velocity means that prices can and do swing much faster than they used to, in either direction. 

Edited January 5, 2023 by Bronty

[jimjum12]

On 1/5/2023 at 10:29 AM, Bronty said:

I wasn't collecting yet in 1976, but that strikes me as an egregious price for that time, as I saw copies for sale for those sorts of prices ten years later.   

That being said, I think your point that the price guide prices were generally low is valid.   He definitely tried to show slow and steady increases every year as opposed to big swings up and down; Overstreet did want to manage perception and as I recall he was perfectly forthright about that in the pages of the guide.

This would have been around 1975, my best pal Tim bought a VG copy of AF 15 for $30 at a local show right here in blue collar Virginia. I bought an FF 5 in very high grade at the same show for $20, talked down from $22. Tim was trying hard to talk himself out of the AF 15 and asked me what I thought ... I told him to go for it .... we rarely saw that book then. GOD BLESS...

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

[jimjum12]

.... fast forward roughly 15 years to the early 90's and another best friend, Richard, had the opportunity to buy an AF 15 in almost VG from an LCS on the verge of going under for $ 350 .... he didn't listen to me, and passed. He never owned one since. The price you pay for books like that almost always makes you feel uncomfortable .... maybe a little stupid, but it usually plays out well. GOD BLESS ... 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

[Bronty]

On 1/5/2023 at 11:11 AM, jimjum12 said:

.... fast forward roughly 15 years to the early 90's and another best friend, Richard, had the opportunity to buy an AF 15 in almost VG from an LCS on the verge of going under for $ 350 .... he didn't listen to me, and passed. He never owned one since. The price you pay for books like that almost always makes you feel uncomfortable .... maybe a little stupid, but it usually plays out well. GOD BLESS ... 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

You're bang on.  

Don't feel too bad for your friend though.    If he was uncomfortable at 350, he would have sold at $1500, or $3k, or $5k or whatever.     I don't know him, but for that type of buyer there's a good chance they sell early.

Edited January 5, 2023 by Bronty

[sledgehammer]

On 1/5/2023 at 9:29 AM, Bronty said:

I wasn't collecting yet in 1976, but that strikes me as an egregious price for that time, as I saw copies for sale for those sorts of prices ten years later.   

That being said, I think your point that the price guide prices were generally low is valid.   He definitely tried to show slow and steady increases every year as opposed to big swings up and down; Overstreet did want to manage perception and as I recall he was perfectly forthright about that in the pages of the guide.

You referenced 1976, which I mentioned, so I'll assume that was to me.

My point was that the price guide numbers he listed, from Overstreet, are clearly wrong.

I have 1979, and the "fine" price was $600, not the 9.2 price of $80 that he noted.

Edited January 5, 2023 by sledgehammer

[sledgehammer]

In 1976, the guys at cons were almost always asking the NM prices for F/VF copies.

Just my experience.

[Bronty]

On 1/5/2023 at 12:03 PM, sledgehammer said:

You referenced 1976, which I mentioned, so I'll assume that was to me.

My point was that the price guide numbers he listed, from Overstreet, are clearly wrong.

I have 1979, and the "fine" price was $600, not the 9.2 price of $80 that he noted.

Okay.   For what its worth a quick google search shows a reddit thread with these prices.   Assuming it can be trusted it shows AF15 at 255 in 1977-78.

 

 

Edited January 5, 2023 by Bronty

[sledgehammer]

On 1/5/2023 at 11:40 AM, Bronty said:

Okay.   For what its worth a quick google search shows a reddit thread with these prices.   Assuming it can be trusted it shows AF15 at 255 in 1977-78.

Any way you slice it, 700 in 1976 was too much.

You think guys started asking crazy prices for books when Ebay started?

How do you think the price guide got to $900 in NM by 1979?

It sure as hell wasn't a book you were going to get in 9.2, for $80, in 1976.

 

Edited January 5, 2023 by sledgehammer

[Aman619]

On 1/5/2023 at 10:38 AM, Bronty said:

I think it all stems back to e-commerce, really, more than covid (covid just exacerbated what was already there).     The internet has been around a long time but its still developing and those developments shape the way we collect.

First it was ebay, and the revelation of being able to sell to other collectors directly, 24/7 365 with payment by money order or check.    Then paypal and immediate payments.      Then GPA, then advancements in online technology making auction houses more important than conventions.     Grading making all of these long distance transactions feasible.    

That all set up lightning quick buying and selling, which set up all sorts of movie and other speculation.     You hear about a movie Tuesday morning and some joker buys 100 copies of the first appearance that afternoon.    

The lack of any kind of delay anywhere along the chain now means that speculative positions which used to take months or more likely years to accumulate in the old days when guys like you and I were coming up...  can now be bought or sold in an afternoon.   

That giant increase in transactional velocity means that prices can and do swing much faster than they used to, in either direction. 

all great points to add to understanding what we've lived through these past 25 years.

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 1/5/2023 at 10:38 AM, Bronty said:

I think it all stems back to e-commerce, really, more than covid (covid just exacerbated what was already there).     The internet has been around a long time but its still developing and those developments shape the way we collect.

First it was ebay, and the revelation of being able to sell to other collectors directly, 24/7 365 with payment by money order or check.    Then paypal and immediate payments.      Then GPA, then advancements in online technology making auction houses more important than conventions.     Grading making all of these long distance transactions feasible.    

That all set up lightning quick buying and selling, which set up all sorts of movie and other speculation.     You hear about a movie Tuesday morning and some joker buys 100 copies of the first appearance that afternoon.    

The lack of any kind of delay anywhere along the chain now means that speculative positions which used to take months or more likely years to accumulate in the old days when guys like you and I were coming up...  can now be bought or sold in an afternoon.   

That giant increase in transactional velocity means that prices can and do swing much faster than they used to, in either direction. 

Great post & summary 

[lou_fine]

On 1/5/2023 at 7:29 AM, Bronty said:

That being said, I think your point that the price guide prices were generally low is valid.   He definitely tried to show slow and steady increases every year as opposed to big swings up and down; Overstreet did want to manage perception and as I recall he was perfectly forthright about that in the pages of the guide.

Totally agree with you here, and the exact reason why I was shocked at some of the dramatic increases Overstreet put into this year's edition of the guide for some of the so-called hot BA and CA books, only to now see them selling at huge discounts to condition guide valuations with the cooling of prices in the marketplace from their recent highs of last year.  

Makes me wonder what he is going to do for the next edition of the guide when it comes to some of these books, especially since we know that he absolutely hates to ever show price decreases in his guide.    

Edited January 5, 2023 by lou_fine

[Bronty]

On 1/5/2023 at 12:51 PM, sledgehammer said:

You think guys started asking crazy prices for books when Ebay started?

How do you think the price guide got to $900 in NM by 1979?

It sure as hell wasn't a book you were going to get in 9.2, for $80, in 1976.

 

Relax.    I simply posted the reference points for context. 

Edited January 5, 2023 by Bronty

[Bronty]

On 1/5/2023 at 1:56 PM, lou_fine said:

Totally agree with you here, and the exact reason why I was shocked at some of the dramatic increases Overstreet put into this year's edition of the guide for some of the so-called hot BA and CA books, only to now see them selling at huge discounts to condition guide valuations with the cooling of prices in the marketplace from their recent highs of last year.  

Makes me wonder what he is going to do for the next edition of the guide when it comes to some of these books, especially since we know that he absolutely hates to ever show price decreases in his guide.    

The guide hasn't been relevant in at least fifteen years.    At this point, I would imagine its just older collectors buying it out of inertia.    He could print pretty much any prices he felt like and we'd all just shrug and ignore it anyways.

[sledgehammer]

On 1/5/2023 at 1:25 PM, Bronty said:

On 1/5/2023 at 11:51 AM, sledgehammer said:

You think guys started asking crazy prices for books when Ebay started?

How do you think the price guide got to $900 in NM by 1979?

It sure as hell wasn't a book you were going to get in 9.2, for $80, in 1976.

 

Relax.    I simply posted the reference points for context. 

No worries. I have to believe that somebody asking a price for a copy of AF 15 in the 70s, probably set his sights higher for what was the FIRST really large comic convention in a major highly populated area like Chicago, where people could actually get their hands on a high grade copy, and have to walk away from it, than simply looking at a list of prices that were mailed to you from an ad in a comic book.

 

Edited January 5, 2023 by sledgehammer

[rjpb]

On 1/5/2023 at 4:58 AM, sledgehammer said:

Say what????

I went to the first Chicago comicon in 1976.

It was the first time I saw an AF 15 in person. The guy wanted $700 for it. In today's dollars, that would have been about $3,500, for a 14 year old comic.

The Overstreet I have, from 1979, AF 15 is $600 in fine, and $900 in mint.

As i dimly recall from my youth, that even though Overstreet was considered pretty much a pricing bible back in the early 70s, AF #15 was always a book one would expect to pay extra for (as was FF#1), and you'd probably have to settle for a VG at the NM price.

[jimjum12]

On 1/5/2023 at 12:51 PM, sledgehammer said:

It sure as hell wasn't a book you were going to get in 9.2, for $80, in 1976.

... you weren't going to get it in 9.2 at any price, unless you were on the inside track with the right people. There were NEVER enough of those ... it was always "higher than whatever the last 9.2 did".... often double. It's actually hard to apply logic, maybe only parallels actually add insight, such as the Coin Hobby. If someone has the money without sacrificing family security, what are we waiting for ? Once we have it, the itch is scratched and, ultimately, the heirs have a nice chunk of FREE (...to them. ) windfall. If the "second childhood" hits like a tidal wave, we can always sell it for a jet ski. Unfortunately, this is one of those "problems" I don't have  GOD BLESS... 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)