Price History of Amazing Fantasy 15 4 4

[mattn792]

On 10/17/2017 at 11:11 AM, mattn792 said:

From my small corner of the once and possibly future Amazing Spider-Man 1 owner's club, I picked up a blue label 3.5 in early 2013.  I actually didn't plan on keeping it but couldn't even get an offer over $3000 at the time.  I had it signed by Stan and let it sit for a while as an SS 3.5.  I finally turned it loose and it sold on ComicLink a few months ago for $6600.

A new like brought this legacy post to my attention and boy does it show its age.  I just picked up a 0.5 (beautifully presenting mind you) ASM 1 for $5700 as part of a cash and trade deal.  

[sledgehammer]

On 1/6/2023 at 3:33 PM, mattn792 said:

A new like brought this legacy post to my attention and boy does it show its age.  

If you ever reach a high enough level of winter boredom, go back to 2004.

"Wow, I've never seen a 9.8 Xmen 266 hit $300 before!!"

"$3,000 for an ASM 238 in 9.9??!!??  There is no way that in 20 years, anything close to this insane bubble will still exist!!!!"

[jcjames]

On 1/5/2023 at 10:40 AM, Bronty said:

Okay.   For what its worth a quick google search shows a reddit thread with these prices.   Assuming it can be trusted it shows AF15 at 255 in 1977-78.

 

 

 1977 AF15 "NM" has appreciated about ~3,700X in value as of 2020 (last 9.4 sale), while 1977 IH181 "NM" has appreciated ~20,000X in value as of 2020 avg 9.4 sales. Timing is everything! 

 

 

[jcjames]

On 10/24/2017 at 9:10 AM, ComicConnoisseur said:

Someone should start a price history for Incredible Hulk #181 because that looks like it will be talked about in 5 years like AF#15 is now.

Most interesting since we can now answer this question posted in 2017!

So comparing GPA averages from 2017 through 2022 - AF15 vs IH181, from a purely price/value/ROI point of view: 

AF15 vs IH181 - GRADE-FOR-GRADE, % ROI: 

2017 AF15 2.0 avg = $10,830 ...... 2022 AF15 2.0 avg = $31,467  =  191% ROI 

2017 IH181 2.0 avg = $742 ...... 2022 IH181 2.0 avg = $2,320 =  313% ROI

 

2017 AF15 4.0 avg = $25,389 ...... 2022 AF15 4.0 avg = $46,714  =  84% ROI 

2017 IH181 4.0 avg = $911...... 2022 IH181 4.0 avg = $3,467 =  281% ROI

 

2017 AF15 6.0 avg = $47,796 ...... 2022 AF15 6.0 avg = $79,094  =  65% ROI 

2017 IH181 6.0 avg = $1,360 ...... 2022 IH181 6.0 avg = $4,902 =  260% ROI

 

2017 AF15 7.0 avg = $97,900 ...... 2022 AF15 7.0 avg = $220,500  =  125% ROI 

2017 IH181 7.0 avg = $1,549 ...... 2022 IH181 7.0 avg = $5,947 =  384% ROI

 

AF15 vs IH181 - DOLLAR-FOR-DOLLAR, ROI (Assume ~$5,000 to spend in 2017):

2017 AF15 0.5 avg = $5,000   ...... 2022 AF15 0.5 avg = $13,400  =  168% ROI 

2017 IH181 9.4 avg = $5,125 ...... 2022 IH181 9.4 avg = $17,962 =  250% ROI

 

AF15 vs IH181 - DOLLAR-FOR-DOLLAR, ROI (Assume ~$58,000 to spend in 2017):

2017 AF15 6.5 avg = $58,000   ...... 2022 AF15 6.5 avg = $175,000  =  202% ROI 

2017 IH181 9.8 avg = $18,570 (buy 3) ...... 2022 IH181 9.8 avg = $99,429 =  435% ROI

 

 

Looks like in grade-for-grade or dollar-for-dollar, the better sub-$100K "investment" over the past five years has consistently been IH181. 

So... what will happen in the NEXT five years???   

 

 

 

ETA: typos

Edited January 8, 2023 by jcjames

[KCOComics]

On 1/7/2023 at 9:49 PM, jcjames said:

Most interesting since we can now answer this question posted in 2017!

So comparing GPA averages from 2017 through 2022 - AF15 vs IH181, from a purely price/value/ROI point of view: 

AF15 vs IH181 - GRADE-FOR-GRADE, % ROI: 

2017 AF15 2.0 avg = $10,830 ...... 2022 AF15 2.0 avg = $31,467  =  191% ROI 

2017 IH181 2.0 avg = $742 ...... 2022 IH181 2.0 avg = $2,320 =  313% ROI

 

2017 AF15 4.0 avg = $25,389 ...... 2022 AF15 4.0 avg = $46,714  =  84% ROI 

2017 IH181 4.0 avg = $911...... 2022 IH181 4.0 avg = $3,467 =  281% ROI

 

2017 AF15 6.0 avg = $47,796 ...... 2022 AF15 6.0 avg = $79,094  =  65% ROI 

2017 IH181 6.0 avg = $1,360 ...... 2022 IH181 6.0 avg = $4,902 =  260% ROI

 

2017 AF15 7.0 avg = $97,900 ...... 2022 AF15 7.0 avg = $220,500  =  125% ROI 

2017 IH181 7.0 avg = $1,549 ...... 2022 IH181 7.0 avg = $5,947 =  384% ROI

 

AF15 vs IH181 - DOLLAR-FOR-DOLLAR, ROI (Assume ~$5,000 to spend in 2017):

2017 AF15 0.5 avg = $5,000   ...... 2022 AF15 0.5 avg = $13,400  =  168% ROI 

2017 IH181 9.4 avg = $5,125 ...... 2022 IH181 9.4 avg = $17,962 =  250% ROI

 

AF15 vs IH181 - DOLLAR-FOR-DOLLAR, ROI (Assume ~$58,000 to spend in 2017):

2017 AF15 6.5 avg = $58,000   ...... 2022 AF15 6.5 avg = $175,000  =  202% ROI 

2017 IH181 9.8 avg = $18,570 (buy 3) ...... 2022 IH181 9.8 avg = $99,429 =  435% ROI

 

 

Looks like in grade-for-grade or dollar-for-dollar, the better sub-$100K "investment" over the past five years has consistently been IH181. 

So... what will happen in the NEXT five years???   

 

 

 

ETA: typos

Thanks for pulling this together. I wouldn't have guessed it.  

I imagine IH181 having a more affordable price point drives the larger increases.

Kind of like how we see lower grade AF15s have the greatest ROI. We all would take a 4.0 over a 2.0, but the 4.0 is so cost prohibitive, the pool of buyers gets slimed way down. 

 

Of course, those 2.0s have become pretty cost prohibitive. 

[jcjames]

On 1/7/2023 at 10:29 PM, KCOComics said:

Thanks for pulling this together. I wouldn't have guessed it.  

I imagine IH181 having a more affordable price point drives the larger increases.

Kind of like how we see lower grade AF15s have the greatest ROI. We all would take a 4.0 over a 2.0, but the 4.0 is so cost prohibitive, the pool of buyers gets slimed way down. 

 

Of course, those 2.0s have become pretty cost prohibitive. 

That's what I initially thought too, so that's why I also did dollar-for-dollar comparisons. But whether one had $5K or ~$55-60K in 2017, IH181 was the better buy (ROI-wise), even as the AF15 should be far more desirable and hence demonstrate greater ROI 5 years down the road. But it didn't, in any grade I looked or any reasonable 2017 price-point I saw. 

And if someone had ~$20K in 2017, they could have gotten a very nice 3.0-3.5 AF15 or went for the 9.8 IH181. Surprisingly, the 181 would have been the better bet again.  

You're right though - AF15 has become pretty much unobtainable now to nearly everyone in anything other than shabby 0.5 (or worse) grades.

 

Edited January 8, 2023 by jcjames

[Big Brother]

On 1/5/2023 at 6:58 AM, sledgehammer said:

Say what????

I went to the first Chicago comicon in 1976.

It was the first time I saw an AF 15 in person. The guy wanted $700 for it. In today's dollars, that would have been about $3,500, for a 14 year old comic.

The Overstreet I have, from 1979, AF 15 is $600 in fine, and $900 in mint.

Well, as I said earlier, I based my list on one that was posted by Webhead, and I also said that I have the early Overstreets but I'm too lazy to look up the info. That's my excuse...

[Big Brother]

On 1/7/2023 at 8:49 PM, jcjames said:

Most interesting since we can now answer this question posted in 2017!

So comparing GPA averages from 2017 through 2022 - AF15 vs IH181, from a purely price/value/ROI point of view: 

AF15 vs IH181 - GRADE-FOR-GRADE, % ROI: 

2017 AF15 2.0 avg = $10,830 ...... 2022 AF15 2.0 avg = $31,467  =  191% ROI 

2017 IH181 2.0 avg = $742 ...... 2022 IH181 2.0 avg = $2,320 =  313% ROI

 

2017 AF15 4.0 avg = $25,389 ...... 2022 AF15 4.0 avg = $46,714  =  84% ROI 

2017 IH181 4.0 avg = $911...... 2022 IH181 4.0 avg = $3,467 =  281% ROI

 

2017 AF15 6.0 avg = $47,796 ...... 2022 AF15 6.0 avg = $79,094  =  65% ROI 

2017 IH181 6.0 avg = $1,360 ...... 2022 IH181 6.0 avg = $4,902 =  260% ROI

 

2017 AF15 7.0 avg = $97,900 ...... 2022 AF15 7.0 avg = $220,500  =  125% ROI 

2017 IH181 7.0 avg = $1,549 ...... 2022 IH181 7.0 avg = $5,947 =  384% ROI

 

AF15 vs IH181 - DOLLAR-FOR-DOLLAR, ROI (Assume ~$5,000 to spend in 2017):

2017 AF15 0.5 avg = $5,000   ...... 2022 AF15 0.5 avg = $13,400  =  168% ROI 

2017 IH181 9.4 avg = $5,125 ...... 2022 IH181 9.4 avg = $17,962 =  250% ROI

 

AF15 vs IH181 - DOLLAR-FOR-DOLLAR, ROI (Assume ~$58,000 to spend in 2017):

2017 AF15 6.5 avg = $58,000   ...... 2022 AF15 6.5 avg = $175,000  =  202% ROI 

2017 IH181 9.8 avg = $18,570 (buy 3) ...... 2022 IH181 9.8 avg = $99,429 =  435% ROI

 

 

Looks like in grade-for-grade or dollar-for-dollar, the better sub-$100K "investment" over the past five years has consistently been IH181. 

So... what will happen in the NEXT five years???   

 

 

 

ETA: typos

The difference is, the artwork on Amazing Fantasy #15 is typically great Ditko. The artwork on Incredible Hulk #181 is Trimpe / Abel spoon. If you want it, you can have it. I could've bought a copy for peanuts years ago, but I didn't want it then and I still don't. I never bought comics because I thought they would make me money. I bought them because I liked them.

Edited January 8, 2023 by Big Brother
censored

[Big Brother]

On 1/8/2023 at 2:08 AM, Big Brother said:

The difference is, the artwork on Amazing Fantasy #15 is typically great Ditko. The artwork on Incredible Hulk #181 is Trimpe / Abel spoon. If you want it, you can have it. I could've bought a copy for peanuts years ago, but I didn't want it then and I still don't. I never bought comics because I thought they would make me money. I bought them because I liked them.

In case you don't know, spoon = junk, since apparently another word is verboten.

[jimjum12]

There's something of a glass ceiling with most collectibles, what that exactly is, who knows ? The closer one gets to the ceiling, the more scarcity will play a role. Let's say for argument's sake that the ceiling is 10 million. I'm doubting the 9.8 IH181 will ever reach it, there are just SO many. Now the 9.8 AF 15, Oh hell yeah, it's going to make it. As the ceiling moves upward, the ROI may shift on different items. GOD BLESS ... 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

 

Out of curiousity, I wonder what the ROI is between the two books if our period is 2020-2022 ?

Edited January 8, 2023 by jimjum12

[sledgehammer]

On 1/8/2023 at 1:53 AM, Big Brother said:

On 1/5/2023 at 6:58 AM, sledgehammer said:

Say what????

I went to the first Chicago comicon in 1976.

It was the first time I saw an AF 15 in person. The guy wanted $700 for it. In today's dollars, that would have been about $3,500, for a 14 year old comic.

The Overstreet I have, from 1979, AF 15 is $600 in fine, and $900 in mint.

Well, as I said earlier, I based my list on one that was posted by Webhead, and I also said that I have the early Overstreets but I'm too lazy to look up the info. That's my excuse...

His list had one blank space, and he didn't use any years. He listed 40 prices to cover a 47 year span of Overstreet.

Your mistake was assuming all of the missing prices were in the time frame between 1972 and 1976

By the early 90's, the premium, if you could really get your hands on a high grade copy, was much higher than your list.

I have no idea what he was doing.

[jimjum12]

On 1/8/2023 at 8:24 AM, sledgehammer said:

His list had one blank space, and he didn't use any years. He listed 40 prices to cover a 47 year span of Overstreet.

Your mistake was assuming all of the missing prices were in the time frame between 1972 and 1976

By the early 90's, the premium, if you could really get your hands on a high grade copy, was much higher than your list.

I have no idea what he was doing.

This can be so important. We place such an emphasis on numbers without fully understanding the profoundly simplistic nature of a "number". We are often led astray by people learning how to "spin" the impression that a number makes when used for analysis. This is because numbers are at best a limited shorthand that help to delineate a pre-conceived notion. At best they only "allude" to things. In this discussion for example, we aren't highlighting data that includes the people like my friend Tim, who got his AF15 in 1976 for $ 30 and what his ROI would be. Why, for example , would we focus on a 5 year window(2017-2022) in, possibly, the most atypical timeframe for investing since the discovery of fire. There are levels of price gouging, in most markets during the last two years, that are basically unprecedented . GOD BLESS... 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

For the sake of clarity, my friend Tim also bought a IH181 for 25 cents around that time and salted it away. 

Edited January 8, 2023 by jimjum12

[jcjames]

On 1/8/2023 at 1:08 AM, Big Brother said:

The difference is, the artwork on Amazing Fantasy #15 is typically great Ditko. The artwork on Incredible Hulk #181 is Trimpe / Abel spoon...

True, but the thread and post were about prices/values, not relative artistic quality (of which there's little disagreement).

 

[sledgehammer]

On 1/6/2023 at 12:49 PM, jimjum12 said:

On 1/5/2023 at 11:51 AM, sledgehammer said:

It sure as hell wasn't a book you were going to get in 9.2, for $80, in 1976.

... you weren't going to get it in 9.2 at any price, unless you were on the inside track with the right people. There were NEVER enough of those ... it was always "higher than whatever the last 9.2 did".... often double.

The other thing that you have to keep in mind is that there were many more copies of this book floating around in the mid 70s, that  people thought were higher grade because of restoration they had never even thought about looking for. What is the grading total on purples?  100 copies roughly over 8.0?

Figure in a very small number of accidently wrecked (grade drop) copies over the course of the last 45 years on top of that, and you end up with crazy rare in a universal label.

By 1980, I had (well, my father had) paid $200 for ASM 3, 4 and 5 at a mini con in Chicago. That was a GREAT price for the seller.

By 1985, Moondog had broken the news to me that somebody had F'd us on all 3 of them.

Edited January 8, 2023 by sledgehammer

[piper]

Both are great books. At some point, I will reacquire an IH181. The AF15 is not leaving the personal collection (unless I upgrade) until it’s time to liquidate for retirement 

[jcjames]

On 1/8/2023 at 2:51 AM, jimjum12 said:

There's something of a glass ceiling with most collectibles, what that exactly is, who knows ? The closer one gets to the ceiling, the more scarcity will play a role. Let's say for argument's sake that the ceiling is 10 million. I'm doubting the 9.8 IH181 will ever reach it, there are just SO many. Now the 9.8 AF 15, Oh hell yeah, it's going to make it. As the ceiling moves upward, the ROI may shift on different items. GOD BLESS ... 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus)

 

Out of curiousity, I wonder what the ROI is between the two books if our period is 2020-2022 ?

That is true for the nose-bleed grades, but for the moderately-affordable price (say $5K to $50K currently), it's (surprisingly) still hard to say in the next 5 years whether AF15 or IH181 will give top ROI. 

I think, looking at the trendlines in GPA, that since most of the growth in values/prices from 2017 through 2022 came during the 2020-2022 price spikes, I'd say the trends would be pretty much the same. 

 

[jcjames]

On 1/8/2023 at 11:38 AM, piper said:

Both are great books. At some point, I will reacquire an IH181. The AF15 is not leaving the personal collection (unless I upgrade) until it’s time to liquidate for retirement 

I got my 181, but had a chance at a decent AF15 that a seller had several low-grade raws of years ago, but he got cold feet when it came time to finish the deal. We had a price, but then he backtracked and decided not to sell at the last minute. That was, I believe, my last shot at getting a non-raggedy AF15. Ah well. 

[lou_fine]

On 1/8/2023 at 9:47 AM, sledgehammer said:

The other thing that you have to keep in mind is that there were many more copies of this book floating around in the mid 70s, that  people thought were higher grade because of restoration they had never even thought about looking for.

Well, that's probably because restoration was seen as adding value to a book back then, instead of the death knell that it is seen as today.    

Which makes me wonder how the marketplace will view pressed books 50 years from now when improving technology just might make it cost effective, easy, and fast for anybody to identify artificially pressed books?    

Edited January 9, 2023 by lou_fine

[sledgehammer]

On 1/9/2023 at 2:11 PM, lou_fine said:

Well, that's probably because restoration was seen as adding value to a book back then, instead of the death knell that it is seen as today.    

I don't know about the early 70s, but Overstreet was already noting by the late 70s that prices are based (in capital letters) on comics being unrestored.

The hit was not as bad as the purple label of death, but it didn't add value.

Usually they would say an unrestored Fine price drops to a VG price, etc.

Other things would also have been nice to disclose, like missing pages for example.

Counting pages at a con on a $4 ASM 50 would have been pretty stupid.

Edited January 9, 2023 by sledgehammer

[lou_fine]

On 1/9/2023 at 12:18 PM, sledgehammer said:

I don't know about the early 70s, but Overstreet was already noting by the late 70s that prices are based (in capital letters) on comics being unrestored.

As far as I am aware, the comic book valuations in the Overstreet have ALWAYS been based on unrestored books right from the get go.  

 

On 1/9/2023 at 12:18 PM, sledgehammer said:

The hit was not as bad as the purple label of death, but it didn't add value.

Usually they would say an unrestored Fine price drops to a VG price, etc.

I clearly remember in a couple of the guides towards the end of the 70's that Overstreet attempted to come up with some type of unspecified arithmetical calculation and a graphical chart to show the added value of having a book restored.  For example, if you have a book that was originally in VG unrestored condition and then you "improved" it through some form of restoration to a Fine unrestored condition, it would now have some unspecified value somewhere above the unrestored VG valuation, but never as high as the unrestored Fine Valuation.    

Not surprisingly at all, what killed the restoration marketplace was the fact that sellers started to foist their restored books as unrestored copies without even bothering to disclose the hidden work that had been done to them, all in the quest to make more money.  Perish the thought that in this day and age, people would actually ever think of artificially manipulating a book to improve its condition and then not even bother to disclose this critical fact when it came time to sell the book.