good deal?

[clobberintime]

Gotcha! When i buy something farly expensive I usually look to the future though and the very high prices paid on these Spidey 9.4+ books are not holding up. I see your point though that $1500 is a good price compared to present comparables on that issue.

[Aman619]

Maybe you guys are right about the future of this book, and maybe you aren't, but to say $1500 is CURRENTLY not a good deal in THIS market(not just to you) is incorrect.

 

Okay from that specific, limited, right now perspective it may be a great or fair price. But, this is real money being invested/spent. I (and many others here) would never pay that much for that book at this time for the reasons we state...so your original question "was this a good deal" for right now etc, to us, in the current climate, has no meaning for us cause we are looking down the road with EVERY purchase.

[COI]

so your original question "was this a good deal" for right now etc, to us, in the current climate, has no meaning for us cause we are looking down the road with EVERY purchase.

 

Huh? When did I ask that?

 

That was the topic of the thread. Gman asked was this a good price? I'm simply stating that in the current market, yes. I'm not asking you anything.

 

The fact is, there was somebody willing to spend that now. Notch Top also veriified he is willing to spend it. Therefore, it is a fair price currently. You may be right about the future, and you may be wrong( it's possible). I never said I disagreed about the future necessarily, but you never know.

 

has no meaning for us cause we are looking down the road with EVERY purchase.

 

First of all, I understand what "real money" is, and I spend it on books as well. And when I do, I'm careful about what I spend, which is why I have all this market data.

 

Not everyone does this, so speak for yourself. There are people who have lots of money, and choose to pursue the best they can get because the funds they use are largely discretionary. Some people just don't plan on selling. I am NOT one of those, and I do look down the road, but I also acknowledge that not everyone does this.

 

Relax. I never said I disagreed with your future views, but I was answering the question posted for this thread. If the post was entitled:"Is this book going to hold these prices long term?" then it would be a different discussion.

[COI]

When i buy something farly expensive I usually look to the future though and the very high prices paid on these Spidey 9.4+ books are not holding up.

 

Yep, I agree, which is why I think this book is now at $1500 compared to its previous $2400 high. I don't see it getting much higher in the long term outside of movie hype, but I also don't see it plummeting either. So it very well may be a bad investment in terms of potential gains, but I think a lot of 9.6's are. I think $1500 is the adjusted price, and it will probably remain around there.

 

In the midst of movie hype, I saw a CGC 9.4 ASM #15 go for over 10K!! Ouch!

[COI]

BTW, if anyone is wondering why I'm so sure about the number of CURRENTLY available 9.6's, it's because I own 2 of them, and know where some of the others are. What can I say, I love MJ.

[clobberintime]

I almost went for the one heritage had after I talked to bob Storms and Bruce gave me some data on prior sales of 15 at 9.4. They wanted $4300 for it which was thousands less than any other sale of a 9.4!

[Aman619]

Huh? When did I ask that?

 

that was lazy of me. I didn't look back to see who had said what. Sorry.

I think we agree (maybe to varying degrees) about current prices and the future. That's good.

 

But I have a hard time with these insane numbers for "common" books, and especially the concept of late that a 9.6 is supposed to be 'worth' what, 4 times 9.4s?? Who says? I know, I know, its one step louder, now, id'nt it?

 

And the volatility should scare the pants off most of you playing this game. So this Spidey 42 is a fair price at $1500. Okay, fine. if you all agree, then I agree too. But Guide is $140? (dont have the guide handy) and last year a comparable copy sold for $2400??? So it went up 1800% in 2 years and then lost more than a third of its value. How do you guys sleep at night with that kind of money tied up in with these investments?

 

Oh, and don't be too sure that the "people with lots of money" are so different from the rest. They dont stay rich by throwing good money after bad. They may make mistakes, sure, but they take their money and purchases seriously. As we do. It's the 'stupid' who throw it away indiscriminitely.

 

and when I said "real money" that wasnt a quantitative statement as in $1500 is real money; $25 is peanuts. I'm not going to make judgments on just how much money is a lot for strangers....I just meant taking liquid, all-purpose 'cash' and parking it in a comic book...or in this case, digging a hole and burying it there for an awful long time.

[g-man]

i think guide is $210 so a little over 7x guide......there are plenty of 9.6 only collectors, so at times the $ will be spent for what they deem is a good deal.

[murph0]

Man, I didn't realize that since there are a total of 8 copies in 9.6 and none higher meant that it was a common book. Damn, I always thought the collecting base for Spiderman was pretty small but I never realized there were less then 8 of us out there

Regardless, if your point is to say that you think there's truckloads of Silver age books out there in 9.6 or better condition (enough so to make these books "common"), I suggest you don't stay up waiting for this to happen..cause it's just not going to happen :\

 

Brian

[LordRahl]

Murph makes a good point. All the doomsayers out there that think there are truckloads of high grade silver and bronze just waiting to be slabbed don't seem to factor in the collecting base for some of these books. Even if 5 years from now there are 100 Spidey 42s in 9.6 or better, you don't think there are more than enough collectors who would like to own one of those. I know I would and I'm not even a huge Spidey fan. Amans' idea of "common" is very interesting. Spawn 1 is "common", Spidey 42 in 9.6 is NOT. Is $1500 a good deal. Absolutely, both in terms of todays market and in the future. If this guy bought this book because he actually wants to own it and not to flip it, maybe he holds onto it for 30 years. Are you really trying to say that 30 years from now that book will not be selling for more than $1500? I agree that there will be a downward adjust to the CGC market but in terms of long term investment(20 years or longer) I don't think you can go wrong with a "common" Spidey 42 in 9.6. The truly silly prices being paid are by jgreen on raw Man Things. Wish I could get that guy to bid on my auctions.

[delekkerste]

Are you really trying to say that 30 years from now that book will not be selling for more than $1500? I agree that there will be a downward adjust to the CGC market but in terms of long term investment(20 years or longer)

 

I think that your analysis is guilty of linearly extrapolating your present tastes & beliefs to future generations. Could ASM #42 (and all high grade SA comics, for that matter) be worth a lot more thirty years from now? Yes, no one has a perfect crystal ball and I fully concede the possibility that this could come to pass. But, could the high grade SA market actually be worth less in 30 years, or could the sector underperform many other potential investments, even without substantial new supply hitting the market? I can think of even more scenarios where this might come true - what if comic collecting goes the way of collecting 8-tracks or horse buggy whips (in the digital age, they seem almost anachronistic already)? What if economic & social conditions become so grim that the few remaining comic collectors gravitate towards "grim and gritty" and "indie fringe" books instead of light-hearted bull-market fare like SA comics? What if China becomes the #1 economic power in the world and those collectibles preferred by the Chinese greatly outperform American cultural items? 30 years is a long time and in a world where a few WMD-armed terrorists could literally change the course of history overnight, I think the safer bet is that the world in 30 years is greatly changed from how it looks today.

 

Many people in the bullish camp seem to have forecasting horizons limited to the next convention season or next Overstreet price guide release. This type of short-sighted projection can only lead to an extrapolation of present conditions indefinitely into the future. Unfortunately, the future rarely rewards us for such simplistic analysis. I do agree that $1,500 for an ASM #42 is not unreasonable given the present supply and demand for the book. But, if you want to make predictions about 30 years from now, you better account for scenarios where the future deviates more than just a little bit from our tidy present conditions.

 

Gene

[fantastic_four]

Most people in the bullish camp seem to have forecasting horizons limited to the next convention season or next Overstreet price guide release.

You're not giving the people here much credit. Most of us are seeing the same thing the financial analysts writing the bullish articles on comic books as an investment are seeing--a market value chart for Gold and Silver age that has sloped upwards for the last 30 to 40 years.

 

I can think of even more scenarios where this might come true - what if comic collecting goes the way of collecting 8-tracks or horse buggy whips (in the digital age, they seem almost anachronistic already)?

This is the most important question for anybody who has money tied up in comics because it's the biggest threat to that investment; I doubt China will encroach upon our cultural dominance during our lifetimes. When will CGI make the printed comic book go away?

 

I'm thinking it won't happen during our lifetimes, and even once it does, the Gold/Silver/Bronze comics will continue to maintain their value. Marvel and/or DC should still be thriving companies by then if they don't screw up. Their characters will likely persist, although putting them on the printed page may become a thing of the past. As long as the characters continue to bring in revenue from new product, regardless of the medium, there's a more-than-decent chance that today's most in-demand vintage comics will continue to be in-demand.

[delekkerste]

You're not giving the people here much credit. Most of us are seeing the same thing the financial analysts writing the bullish articles on comic books as an investment are seeing--a market value chart for Gold and Silver age that has sloped upwards for the last 30 to 40 years.

 

I'll agree with you if you can show me that people can make money after the popular financial media has jumped on the bandwagon - more often than not, that's usually the kiss of death. Remember BusinessWeek's infamous "The Death of Equities" cover in 1980? Also, "sloped upwards" is a very poor description of the GA/SA market. "Gone freaking ballistic" or "parabolicly sloping" would be more apt descriptions. Please show me a market, any market, that has had a "soft landing" after a parabolic advance. Remember what they were saying about the Nasdaq after its parabolic advance peaked and started to correct in 2000? "Prices may tread water for awhile as fundamentals catch up with valuations." What we got was a crash, because the "experts" didn't realize that markets don't behave in such a pat, linear manner.

 

Similarly, today's SA collectors say, "Sure, we don't expect prices to repeat their performance of the past 20 years, but they will still continue to appreciate steadily every year, handily beating savings interest." Why? You can't just look blindly at a graph of historical prices and extrapolate indefinitely into the future. What have been the drivers behind this 30-40 years of outperformance? Is it likely to continue? Yes or no, and most importantly, WHY? I don't see most bulls doing anything resembling any kind of hard analysis. There's a reason why the SEC mandates that mutual funds state that "past performance is no indication of future results." They should put that warning on all CGC labels going forward as well!

 

 

As long as the characters continue to bring in revenue from new product, regardless of the medium, there's a more-than-decent chance that today's most in-demand vintage comics will continue to be in-demand.

 

We can agree to disagree here. Sure, comics are still surviving now and the movies are presently thriving. But, that could all change 20 to 30 years from now, and faster than you might imagine. There's a very strong argument to be made that the risks are skewed towards the downside.

 

Gene

[delekkerste]

financial analysts writing the bullish articles on comic books as an investment are seeing

 

BTW, it's not the "financial analysts" who are writing these articles, but rather "financial journalists". That's a big distinction. The former are generally trained in real-world finance while the latter more often than not have English or journalism backgrounds and are looking to write "buzz" stories by getting juicy soundbites from hyper-bullish promoters like The Mint, Metropolis and Heritage.

 

Like Public Enemy said,

 

"Some media is the whack

You believe it's true, it blows me through the roof

Suckers, liars get me a shovel

Some writers I know are damn devils

For them I say don't believe the hype"

 

Gene

[fantastic_four]

"parabolicly sloping"

Help out us people who aren't bean-counters. I'm familiar with what a parabola is in physics--the arc an object exhibits due to the influence of gravity when you throw it up and it comes back down--but how are you using that to describe the price history of a comic? Is the inference that the prices have gone up, and as sure as gravity pulls a ball back down to earth, some market force will inevitably bring it back down? And if that's what you mean, you must be inferring that you know something will bring it down--what do you have in mind? Over what period of time does this comic price "parabola" extend? I can't see paper comics going away in our lifetimes, although it is a risk towards the end of our lives, depending on how fast technology advances.

 

"Sure, we don't expect prices to repeat their performance of the past 20 years, but they will still continue to appreciate steadily every year, handily beating savings interest." Why?

Because Marvel kicks arse, and superheroes will never die!! Marvel has remained EXTREMELY focused on their core Stan Lee and other popular characters, and their entire business model has always been set up around it. If they go out of business or change their focus, then sure, but as long as Spider-Man and Wolverine, or even Superman and Batman, continue to be the leading superheroes, I don't see the vintage copies of these popular characters losing demand.

 

We can agree to disagree here. Sure, comics are still surviving now and the movies are presently thriving. But, that could all change 20 to 30 years from now, and faster than you might imagine. There's a very strong argument to be made that the risks are skewed towards the downside.

I repeat--superheroes will never die!!! New ones will come out, but telling the stories of superhuman heroes and their deeds have been a popular and culturally defining part of human art since early man began scrawling drawings on the cave walls at Lascaux. It will help here if we don't think of the popularity of comic books as the end, but rather think of the characters and stories within them as the end and comic-book paper as the medium by which they're transmitted. Superman, Batman, and Spider-Man began in comic books; as long as they continue to bring in money in ANY medium, the comics will be worth money since that's where they started. And if it isn't Superman, Batman, and Spider-Man that inspire us, it will be other characters, because superheroes will never die!!!

[delekkerste]

I'm familiar with what a parabola is in physics--the arc an object exhibits due to the influence of gravity when you throw it up and it comes back down--but how are you using that to describe the price history of a comic?

 

A parabolic rise follows that parabolic curve you see in physics graphs. Not exactly according to a y = x-squared formula, for example, but at a geometric, non-linear rate, which has never proven to be sustainable over time (when I say this, I am basing my conclusion on centuries of data across multiple markets, not just 30 years of recent comics price history). We left the days of linear price rises long ago...I think the market really "went parabolic" sometime in the early 1990s (it's tough to pinpoint in the absence of readily available, standardized data).

 

Anyway, we can agree to disagree - it's axiomatic, after all, that "it takes two sides to make a market." Besides, we can always look back in 30 years time to see who was right.

 

Gene

[fantastic_four]

I think the market really "went parabolic" sometime in the early 1990s

I'm still not sure I get it...is the end of the comic book value parabolic curve as you see it above or below where it started? And do you think that Gold, Silver, Bronze and Modern have all exhibited a parabolic curve if you examine each individually, or are you referring to the market as a whole?

[Bonds25]

Yea, I'm sure in 30 years in will sell for more than $1,500, but when adjusted to today's dollars, it probably won't sell for more.

[Bonds25]

Good post Gene. I bet 30 years ago people thought that Lone Ranger comics, funny animal comics, and Captain Marvel comics would all hold their popularity. Not the case. And I'm willing to bet a ton of superhero comics will hold no interest to future generations.

[Bonds25]

Superheroes may never die, but comics might. Bottom line is, kids are NOT buying comics today. And if kids aren't buying comics today, they're not going to buy comics in 20 years. Of course, some will, but the majority won't. EVERY single friend of mine who did not read comics as a kid has NO interest in comics today, and certainly have no interest in paying $50 for a comic (let alone $1,500). This is a very concentrated market in the U.S., and I don't see the participants increasing in the future.