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good deal?

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EVERY single friend of mine who did not read comics as a kid has NO interest in comics today, and certainly have no interest in paying $50 for a comic (let alone $1,500).
Well it's always the nuts with disposable income and not just anybody who buys any kind of uncommon piece of art. 99.9999% of the world is happy with looking at a Picasso or Hemingway reprint, but there has always been a market for buying original art or first-edition books.
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Good post Gene. I bet 30 years ago people thought that Lone Ranger comics, funny animal comics, and Captain Marvel comics would all hold their popularity. Not the case. And I'm willing to bet a ton of superhero comics will hold no interest to future generations.

 

Thanks. Those are some great examples you have chosen to highlight our mutual points!

 

I'm hugely passionate about both reading and collecting comics, but when it comes to investing cold hard cash into books, I think one needs to be as objective, dispassionate and above all, non-fanboyish as possible!

 

Gene

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You're right, I'm making assumptions about the American lifestyle generally remaining static 30 years from now. However if the catastrophic picture you paint comes to pass I think we all will have much more to worry about than whether or not my comic books are worth the paper they are printed on. As for the lack of "new blood" in the hobby, I started reading and collecting when I was a teenager not a child. I see plenty of teenagers in the comic book stores around here. Also keep in mind that a very large number of todays collectors are in their 20's and 30's, people that will most likely still be around 30 years from now. There are no crystal balls and noone can foretell the future, but that holds true for the doomsayers here that think $1500 is ridiculuos for the particular book that started this thread and think it will be devalued by "the crash".

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Lone Ranger comics, funny animal comics, and Captain Marvel comics would all hold their popularity. Not the case. And I'm willing to bet a ton of superhero comics will hold no interest to future generations.
Hard to say what will hold the interest of future generations, but the Lone Ranger is different because it started as a TV show and was put into comics later; to my eyes, Captain Marvel is barely different than Superman so suffers from a lack of uniqueness to draw people in; and funny animals aren't as difficult to translate to TV and film as superpowers are. It's the difficulty in rendering superpowers on the big screen that is the primary reason superheroes dominate comics, and It wasn't until computer graphics have gotten as advanced as they are that comic books have become threatened into possible permanent extinction.

 

Once computer graphics get cheap enough to produce on a monthly or weekly basis, comics are in big trouble, but Marvel is doing a bang-up job of projecting their characters into those new media, so the comics those characters first appeared in have a strong chance of being in demand to fans even when comics are no longer produced.

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As for the lack of "new blood" in the hobby, I started reading and collecting when I was a teenager not a child. I see plenty of teenagers in the comic book stores around here.
I'm sure we'll continue to see that as long as you can only get your superhero fix on the big screen for 2 to 4 hours per year (1 to 2 comic book movies per year). Superheroes will never die!!! But...they will eventually change their distribution medium.
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and i saw a spidey #97 in 9.6 go for $799..i also know of one that went privately for $500+ but was a bit off-center...still the seller of the private deal would have cleared an easy additional c-note. Spideys under #100 in 9.6 fetch a premium. That is a fact.

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That's the first publicly available 9.6 of #92 I can remember in years. That's a very in-demand Spidey issue due to the Iceman crossover...that's why I bid on it, because I like Iceman.

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ASM #92 is one of the first Spidey comics I ever read.(Marvel Tales Reprint)

 

The cover gets me every time because it reminds me of reading the story.

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The future of comics values in 30 years? Yes, there is.

 

Yes, some comics will maintain and increase their value in that time. The trick is to figure out WHICH comics in the event of a catastrophic collapse of the comic book/print industry will still be valuable. And that's 'The Best Stuff', the historic, the first appearances etc. I know its obvious, but these are the bluechips in our hobby.

 

So start right now and take all your CGC 9.4 to 9.8 Spideys under #100 and your Hulk 181s going for big money and trade for the first unrestored 'any grade at all' copies of Action#1 and Detective#27 you see. Trade up your current HOT books for bluechips while they are hot. These will be worth more and more money in 50 years because they are American Icons! And their first appearances are historic collectibles that transcend genre. Increasing numbers of civilians now know what "action#1' means from repeated images and stories in the media. And Superman and Batman will be with us just like Mickey Mouse will. Also, as collectors it wont matter to us if they are public domain by then, which will only hurt Disney and AOL/Warner.

 

Because as a wise man said "Super-heroes will never die!" To which I add, "but there are super-heroes and then there are Super-Heroes!"

 

I know Ill get flamed from TRUE COLLECTORS for whom our hobby is not about money, like I was before....so this is not directed at you guys. Just to all posters who plan to get their money back someday (and more) and think of their purchases as investments; while still having had the pleasure of owning these nice comics, and assembling killer runs, in the meantime.

 

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I think the parabolic curve would better be described as the exponential price increases we've suddenly witnessed to be followed by a parallel sudden decline just after the craze peaks...otherwise referred to here as THE APOCALYPSE!!

 

'Exponential' as in y = xx (squared) which, if Im helping my daughter with her SATs correctly, is still the formula for a parabola.

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So you're telling me that I should sell all my books from ASM (which is probably THE most collected back issue) and Hulk 181 (featuring the first app of THE most popular Marvel hero) for ONE copy of a key book? Have you ever heard the phrase "don't put all your eggs in one basket"? How about this, you sell me all of these books you own and then you go buy yourself a big time book like that.

 

Brian

 

 

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YES, I am. Amazing Fantasy is relatively common vs Gold keys and Hulk 181 is, well, how to put this....have you seen the census for 181 lately?? There have been 1200 graded so far with over 300 at 9.0 or better!! And 46 copies in 9.6 alone! Many estimate that there are only 50 Action #1s in existence!) Current demand is great and it feels great to own them. But Action#1 is far rarer than those two.

 

As for eggs and baskets...sure you own lotsa individual Spidey books. But its the value of only the first appearance that controls the values of all the others. And, it seems you ARE placing lotsa SIMILAR eggs in your basket, all of whose value will fall together just as one book would! Many similar comics of one character is not being diversified either.

 

So yes, keep the AF15 if its high grade and quickly trade all the rest. THEN you will be diversified...

 

Do you really want to buy all my Spideys?

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hey, maybe I put my foot in it here. I just noticed that you have 6000 posts!!! So I'm going to assume you know what you are talking about. But I dont understand why we disagree? So please explain why I may be wrong.

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Maybe so, but where's the most room for appreciation? In the lower tier price range because there's more buyers. How many people can spend 200 for a book? Probably 1,000 or so. How many people can spend 50,000 for an Action 1? 20 maybe? Given there's a chance the "mega"-key could theoretically appreciate more quickly but the difficulty of actually finding someone to buy at that price is greatly diminished.

As far as Hulk 181 being a relatively common book. It is certainly not hard to find, but there's a ridiculously large amount of people out there willing to pay 2-3k for a 9.4 of this book. The price of anything comics related will always be supply and demand. And demand is doubling supply of this book. ASM has consistantly had one of the largest collecting bases of ANY comic out there for over 20 years. This is what you'd call an old die hard. It'd be difficult to imagine something that would make the millions of Spiderman collectors out there drop off the face of the Earth. I wouldn't go so far as saying never, b/c I who can predict what happens 10 years down the road but I will say the likelihood is "very unlikely".

Finally, the census lends to some skewed decisions regarding what's rare and what isn't. Sure there's only 2 copies of Heathcliff #1 graded. Does that mean it's rare? Not at all, there just isn't anyone looking to pay some $$$ for this to justify anyone wanting to submit it. Now for Spiderman? Despite some census #'s going into the 100's and beyond for 9.4's. There's copies of issues in the ASM run that I've never even seen for sale. Pre 100 ASM books command a fairly good price and are almost always heavily bid on due to a large collector base.

 

Brian

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Youre right about upside potential. Less expensive books have the advantage over $50,000 books. I was arguing at it from "what will retain its value over the long haul" point of view which is only one approach. Supply and demand are important. But I feel right now there is excessive demand. That can and will change. Action #1 is forever and the holy grail of this business. I think that will remain constant for a long time. Perhaps you can ride Spidey and Hulk for awhile yet to more profit. But of demand dries up, you and 300 people will be selling...

 

I agree about the census. Its of no use when the numbers so far obviously do not accurately represent the supply. But 181's numbers tell the opposite story. More copies will only make it worse! There might still be a case or two sitting around somewhere...thats just not gonna happen to you know what.

 

Soo...you dont want to buy my Spideys? Which issue never shows up?

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