Yet another Hulk 181 thread

[murph0]

I don't see any part of my post that says ANYTHING about 20 years? It's ridiculous to attempt forecast that far into the future of a collectible medium.

 

Brian

[murph0]

I don't know who owns a NM book of a key like Hulk 181 that isn't going to do as much as he can to keep it NM, I find it highly unlikely anything more then a minor portion of the total amount of NM- or better Hulk 181s out there become VF's or whatever in 20 years.

 

Brian

[Aman619]

caught this thread late, but I wanna vote anyway....I dont think so, nina.

All my reasons have been stated, and well explained already. Its just too common compared to AF15 and FF1 so all those arguments are invalid. Those books came out and were well read and saved and jostled a decade before storage supplies were even invented. The supply in high high grade is minute compared to this puppy. And, unlike before, copies of 181 will never degrade as you say they will. Theyre never read, and are locked up for good snug in their wells.....well for at least 7 years!

 

..but then again, inflation...hmmmnnn..

[joe_collector]

>>Does anyone think a Hulk 181 will be a $20,000.00 comic in 2023? (I'll be printing these posts and adding them to my collection. And, will check back in 20 years - so be warned.

 

You do that, but just make sure not to put all your cash in "comic stocks" or you likely won't have a computer to type on in 2023.

[comicmankev]

Talking about Hulk 181, everybody seems to be forgetting that there is a 9.9 out there and maybe more? Whats it worth? $25k I say.

 

But the fact is, I agree that comics will be worth a lot more in 20 years time, but only due to scarcity, there are hundreds, maybe thousands more HG copies of 181 out there. As the price of the HG issues go up with inflation, they go down due to swamping of the market! Back to the other point of Action 2 or AF 15, these are truly scarce, you could never put a value on those in 20 years?

[joe_collector]

>>Most everything I've heard on assumes two things. First, interest in comics will be a lot worse 20 or 30 years from now and secondly, the kids of tomorrow WILL be as uninterested in comics as they are now. If that's so, then everybody's right and I am wrong.

 

That's pretty well it in a nutshell.

 

And your previous comments about "hearing that comics are dying art for for the last 20 years" are absolutely true, but the amount of time for BACK ISSUE VALUES to be affected by this trend takes a much longer time.

 

Kids haven't been buying new comics since the mid-80's, and even though new comics are destined for extinction, that doesn't mean collectors who grew up with the books suddenly disappeared. Comics are dead, but collectors live on, got nice jobs, felt the nostalgic collector bug, and will continue buying back issues, at least for a another few decades.

 

It'll take a good 5-10 years for Golden/early-Silver Age to be affected by demographics (people retiring, croaking) and another 15+ or so for the Bronze Age collectors to be hard hit by the realities of aging. Retirement is a biggie, and (no jokes Darth) I've noticed that some Golden/Silver Agers in my family are looking to get out of comics and bank the cash.

 

Now extrapolate that to Silver and Bronze, and I see the available supply dwarfing demand once the demographics turn against comic collecting. Think of it as a retirement fund that has been in operation since the 1930's and previous retirees have gotten fat on. But since the 1980's, no new workers have contributed, and that puts the investment money of everyone else at risk.

 

So yes, I see the 20-year forecast for comic book values to be extremely bleak, as there will definitely, without a doubt, be less hardcore collectors then, than there are today, and more long-term collectors retiring, moving to Florida and blowing off their existing collections.

[delekkerste]

Retirement is a biggie, and (no jokes Darth) I've noticed that some Golden/Silver Agers in my family are looking to get out of comics and bank the cash.

 

This is a huge point. If the stock market had continued its impossible ascent of the 1990s, most of us would be able to comfortably retire AND keep our comic collections. As it is, however, many/most people's retirement portfolios have been decimated and have now withered away to levels too low for anything but another uber-mega-secular bull market to bail them out (not going to happen). Many people have stopped contributing new money to their retirement accounts, putting it instead into real estate, comics and other tangible, known-quantity assets immune to corporate scandals and the like (or else just simply blowing it by spending it). These people mathematically will not be able to retire without cutting back their spending and selling off assets like their comics, downsizing to smaller homes, etc. as they retire in 15-30 years (heck, some won't even be able to retire at all).

 

Comic values have ridden a virtuous demographic upswing the past 40 years. In the next 40 years, they will experience what happens when the cycle turns the other direction. Don't measure this by month to month fluctations in prices - like Ninanina, just print out this thread, look me up in 20 years and offer up your sincere apology for all those misplaced "Chicken Little" wisecracks.

 

Gene

[comicmankev]

There is always gonna be collectors looking for comics, period.

 

The comic genre will die, Marvel will go under, so will all the rest, comics will then turn into antiques.

 

They are an icon of our time, people will recognize it. Look at the film Demolition man, futuristic and far fetched, but his antiques were coke cans and comics, and thats the way it will always be.

 

Comics have made an impact on society the same as Elvis did to music. Collectors of gold/silver/bronze whatever, will die, but more will always generate.

 

 

Comics are part of our history and nobody can stop that!

[joe_collector]

Of course not, but we're referring to the level of demand. That is absolutely certain to fall in the future, with lower prices resulting.

 

In 20 years, no one's going to be tossing a copy of Hulk 181 into the garbage, but it's also extremely doubtful that the collector base will large enough to handle the current supply at today's prices.

[arcticbear-migration]

You know, I'm not so sure. People, especially Americans have a huge taste for nostalgia and things they can no longer get. On could also parallel stamp collecting for instance. I've not heard current numbers but it seems that it's declining, I would assume mainly because of the flood of "collectible stamps" except they are put out in such numbers that they will never have value. Those however do not seem to effect the value of the older more costly stamps even in todays market. In fact in 30 years, maybe some of the collectables that didn't get stockpiled might be worth something.

 

Applying that to this conversation, from what I'm reading there are those that think comic books are in decline and that will effect future values negatively. It's very hard to see the future from the present. But I'd look at it from this view. If less and less people are buying comics since the mid 80's. I think I'd stock up on some of those. Because if the comic industry goes under (which I really don't see, it's a national institution) then those comics of that age will possibly become very valueable. Especially since the current thinking of many distributers could be to dump the inventory to make room for other product.

 

But somehow I doubt we'll see the end of comic books. People are cyclic. And while there may be a downturn, give it a decade of so, and you'll see a revival. People cycle back to things that previous generations loved. It often skips a generation or two, but there's lots of examples of it out there. (Uggg, I hope this isn't true of lime green leisure suits).

 

So who really knows? Collectibles in general have a dear place in Americans hearts especially. And comics have a huge heritage. Face it, in the last years what are some of the most antecipated movies in hollywood? Well they are hero's of our youth, that we egarly antecipated from month to month in the print of our favorite comics.

 

As a side note, I've recently as some of you know regained an interest in comics I've found from my youth. I have to tell you, my nine year old son is absolutely facinated by them, and I think I will find a series or two of them that I can give to him, so that he may enjoy them too. Point here is, kids just need to be exposed to them. It's a great media especially since to many kids are addicted to television. It promotes reading and entertains. If kids aren't buying comics, than we as parents probably aren't sharing and promoting them anymore. Just my opinion.

[OldGuy]

"or you likely won't have a computer to type on in 2023"

 

As long as we're making predictions.........no one will be "typing" on computers in 2023.

[chromium]

What ?? We won't have hands anymore in 2023 *GASP*

 

 

[arcticbear-migration]

That's probably a pretty safe prediction. In fact I'd say we won't be typing by 2010.

[joe_collector]

Please don't say voice recognition.

 

And speaking of totally inane UI's, did you see Minority Report? I laughed when thinking of a big lardass using that and having a heart attack within the first 5 minutes.

[cicamen]

I agree with you I do think that CGC 9.9 can hit 25k if it was sold right now. I do not think a regular near mint will hit 20k in 20 years though.

[ninanina]

I do know this industry has surprised and is not all that predictable. That's what I was hanging onto when I BOLDLY made that prediction. I knew I was leaving myself open to criticism and I do appreciate everyone respecting my opinion even though they believed it to be a rediculous prediction.

 

I will bow to the masses and agree it probably won't happen. But, still hoping.

 

Thanks everyone for telling it like it is.

[comicmankev]

Rather than start another thread about this comic, I thought i'd ask this. Am i seeing things or is this another mad price on one of MY auctions:

 

Hulk 181

 

I thought I put enough in the listing to say this was a pile of [!@#%^&^]! No MVS, big permenant marker to cover, WHAT? Even if the latest bidder is dodgy (with zero feedback), I know the guy in second who must have bid this up!

[Bronty]

If this keeps up I might have to put my POS reading copy on ebay

 

[supapimp]

do it. lets see how much it goes for

[Bronty]

But then I won't have a reading copy