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Yet another Hulk 181 thread

181 posts in this topic

can you edit and put a visible counter on it so we can see all the times its been viewed? if it last any length of time at all, the hits will rack up. nice auction by the way very professional. should do as much to sell this as anything else. I find that sometimes my keys are a little more ..."colorful" shall we say, when i keep them out of my solarium... just a thought (lol) grin.gif

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doyle, of course, I took no offense. Sorry, I didn't mean to sound upset, I was just having fun with you smile.gif I thought your comment about the solarium was pretty damn funny, actually! laugh.gif

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lollaugh.gif

 

I'll be curious to see what kind of value the market ascribes to it... i.e. will at sell at the fair price? the good price? The vg price? I.e. it will be interesting to see how the market grades it. What would cgc give it confused.gif

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As a newbie to this forum but not to collecting let me just interject briefly..

 

Comics as a medium has been around for 70+ years now and its popularity has waned and risen during periods in time. It's true that other forms of entertainment such as video games and the internet vie for the kid's attention nowadays but there will _always_ be some kind of revival for these characters. Look at superman he's a remarkably cornball comic superhero of the 30's but he's had numerous revivals. Comic characters are immortal when compared to the real world. They are part of modern day American mythology interwoven with society. Ask any youngster who Hulk, X-men, or Spiderman is and he can tell you right off the bat some general details even if he never touched comics in his life.

 

A lot of people from my generation (i'm in my mid 20's) grew up reading and collecting books like Uncanny X-men, ASM, Hulk, etc. I'd say the nostalgia is pretty damn strong within some of us. I believe key issues like Hulk 181 will enjoy pretty healthy growth rates. The demand is definitely there and while bronze age books will always be available in quantity over books like Amazing fantasy #15 etc.. they will still grow. I'm guessing it'll be worth more like $10,000 in 15-20 years simply because my generation has a strong affinity for the characters and now some of us are finally earning the money to afford all this. It's similar to the phenomenon with baby boomers snatching up golden/silver age keys. Uncanny x-men and ASM will always be hot until the next generation picks it up. The great thing about comics are they are a self contained legacy. Collecting things like baseball cards, coins, etc. relies on the "collector's" value itself. While comics are an entertainment medium, even 50 years from now a kid could pick up those old issues of Uncanny then read and enjoy them.

 

Studios aren't stupid, they know how bankable comic book characters are. I expect continued revivals in one form or another (cartoons, movies) 'till the end of America itself.

 

 

 

 

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You should really examine trends longer term, and you might realize that quite a few hot trends have burned out. Comics are a relatively new phenomenon for America culture, and it's highly unlikely that with sales tanking and no kids buying, that comics will be around for another 70 years.

 

I do agree that while the physical comic book is toast, that the characters are inherently valuable. I've been saying this since I got on here, and that Marvel and DC should be pushing super-heroes hard into video games, movies, and what I see as the comic books of the 2000's, high-end animated shows.

 

And as with the previous posters, I do understand your opinion, and it was one shared by the majority when things like cowboy movies, silent pictures and 8-track tapes went the way of the dodo. If the majority of the population understood this phenomenon, then no one would be investing in comics. grin.gif

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I like what you said and David (I'm sure) and I both agree with you.

 

Perhaps the hot trends that die out, Joe did so because they do not have modern products to keep later generations interested. Back - Issue comics CURRENTLY have things like new comics, video games and movies that somehow create a link to these collectables. Stamps and coins do not have this medium.

 

For all we know, there could be a run of a dozen wolverine movies becoming extremely popular in and around 2015 or so. Then what. Won't readers that are 20 something now just be clamoring for this book? And if not then, well maybe even in 5 years. Hulk movies as well could generate more interest in these comics.

 

I am betting a few "unknown" events will create the demand for this comic. I also have history on my side that shows this hobby is by no means predictable and has on many occasions surprised the people in it simply by not behaving the way it should behave. Current examples? Many people predicted a huge supply of hi-grade Silver Age around now, as many of the collectors were becoming of age. It didn't happen. The recent Hulk 181 sale on e-bay and perhaps to a smaller degree the price spike on Bronze Age comics, courtesy of JGreen. Could this be a beginning? JGreen obviously seems confident of a future.

 

EVERYONE THAT HAS DISAGREED WITH MY PREDICTION, can you honestly say you would not have reacted the same way if 6 months ago I predicted a Hulk 181 selling for $18,000.00? Or raw bronze age selling on e-bay like they recently have?

 

Be honest now. grin.gif

 

Lofwyr, DavidKing - you're off the hook on this one. cool.gif

 

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If you're confident that the low-selling comics of today will somehow burst into 500-1M sellers in the years to come, then sure, bet the farm on Hulk 181. Just remember that today's comic sales are the lowest ever in the history of comicdom, and seem to sink further as the months go by.

 

Me, I think paper comics are a doomed platform for stories, and highly doubt sales will increase in the future. Once that last link to the glory days of fandom is gone, then values will inevitably plummet.

 

And if you're betting the horse on the Hollywood movie machine, take your money and run. None have lasted more than a few years, and those that bet hard (can you say BATMAN!) sometimes lost the farm (literally).

 

It's truly amazing that anyone would actually state that comic values will appreciate (not counting inflation) in the years to come. Readership is dwindling, comic movies have created a hype similar to the Batman flicks, and CGC 9.8+ books have never, ever been hotter.

 

Where do we go from here?

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I also have history on my side that shows this hobby is by no means predictable and has on many occasions surprised the people in it simply by not behaving the way it should behave.

 

The famous stock market investor, author and professor Benjamin Graham said that, in the short-run, the market is an emotional voting machine, but in the long-run, it is a weighing machine that reflects true value. So, it really doesn't matter whether a Hulk #181 CGC 9.8 sells for $19,100, whether someone pays 60x guide for a Hulk #162 CGC 9.8, or whether jgreen7472 single-handedly props up the raw Bronze market in the short-run, because in the long-run, true value will win out.

 

Nobody can say with 100% certainty what will happen, but to dismiss the future course of prices as "by no means predictable" (and yet, your "unpredictable" scenarios all seem to involve perpetually rising prices...hmmm) is totally false. Some future scenarios are clearly more probable than others. The basis of my argument for stagnating or falling real (inflation-adjusted) comic prices in the long-run is based on the key cultural, technological, demographic and economic trends that will work against comic values in the coming decades (which I have identified numerous times in various posts), how current values already fully reflect the key drivers of the bull market of the past 30 years, and how "unforeseen" events going forward will likely only impact values on the margin.

 

While the future may prove me wrong, in the meantime I'll stand by my careful analysis versus anyone who bases their opinion on looking in the rearview mirror or hoping on a fanboy wing and a prayer.

 

Gene

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