MCU's Phase 5 rumors 1 1

[D84]

Too little, too late.

[@therealsilvermane]

On 12/15/2022 at 11:54 AM, davidpg said:

Well the key to success of phase 4 was all the shows and movies....that's not something that worked out.  I'm a huge MCU fan, and I have very little hope for the upcoming phase. 

I'm not sure what your barometer of success is here, but generally speaking, the MCU's Phase Four did just fine while not exactly reaching the glorious heights of Phase Three critically or financially. That's not a failure.

Post-pandemic, the box office for No Way Home was 1.9 billion, Multiverse of Madness 955 million, Love and Thunder 760 million, and Wakanda Forever on its way to 800 million. All without a China release, so you can subtract 100 million easily from what each would have made otherwise. Outside of Top Gun Maverick, the only two 2022 films to top $400 million domestic are Multiverse of Madness and Wakanda Forever. 

During the pandemic, when theaters limited screenings, people weren't flocking to theaters, Disney was day to date streaming/45-60 day streaming, and China was locking out Disney films, Black Widow, Shang-Chi, and Eternals did just fine considering.

Critically, the only two films you could say had truly mixed reviews were Eternals and Thor Love and Thunder. Every other MCU film received generally positive reviews. 

As for the Disney+ shows, pretty much every show has had high audience viewership. Not counting the usual masculinist backlash to  Ms. Marvel and She-Hulk, the shows and Holiday Specials were all generally well received by audiences and critics.

In conclusion, box office wise and viewership-wise, Phase Four did just fine and was a moderate success (considering all the extenuating circumstances) when compared to the rest of the box office or streaming shows of 2021 and 2022.

Edited December 16, 2022 by @therealsilvermane

[@therealsilvermane]

On 12/15/2022 at 4:50 PM, drotto said:

More MCU news.  Agatha may now be delayed also.  Good day for the MCU. Tell me again things are not changing behind the scenes.

 

https://movieweb.com/mcus-echo-series-hit-with-big-delay-agatha-coven-of-chaos-could-also-be-pushed-back/

Echo and Agatha are reportedly delayed. Not exactly world breaking news. Reports of Phase Five and Six movies getting delayed have been coming out all year. And if Marvel Studios is indeed going to take it a little easier with its release slate and not force feed content onto Disney+ for the sake of content, that's a good thing. The VFX folks are probably collectively giving a big sigh of relief.

[D2]

On 12/15/2022 at 11:54 AM, davidpg said:

Well the key to success of phase 4 was all the shows and movies....that's not something that worked out.  I'm a huge MCU fan, and I have very little hope for the upcoming phase.  As well, I disagree with what you've pointed out regarding the FF...made under the style of the first phase of all MCU films, they could make it work very well.  Dunno where they'll be at that point though.

There is no hook for the MCU now. 
They are trying with Kang and Secret Wars, but right now they don’t mean anything. 
 

That is a problem because there should have been a hook at the end of Endgame. Instead they ENDED it and now are left creating something from nothing. 
 

I think everyone will be pleasantly surprised, with Secret Wars to launch the X-Men in 2026-2027. 
 

All Marvel has to do now is not lose the faith of its fan base in 3 years. 
 

That won’t be easy however. 

[drotto]

On 12/16/2022 at 1:17 PM, @therealsilvermane said:

I'm not sure what your barometer of success is here, but generally speaking, the MCU's Phase Four did just fine while not exactly reaching the glorious heights of Phase Three critically or financially. That's not a failure.

Post-pandemic, the box office for No Way Home was 1.9 billion, Multiverse of Madness 955 million, Love and Thunder 760 million, and Wakanda Forever on its way to 800 million. All without a China release, so you can subtract 100 million easily from what each would have made otherwise. Outside of Top Gun Maverick, the only two 2022 films to top $400 million domestic are Multiverse of Madness and Wakanda Forever. 

During the pandemic, when theaters limited screenings, people weren't flocking to theaters, Disney was day to date streaming/45-60 day streaming, and China was locking out Disney films, Black Widow, Shang-Chi, and Eternals did just fine considering.

Critically, the only two films you could say had truly mixed reviews were Eternals and Thor Love and Thunder. Every other MCU film received generally positive reviews. 

As for the Disney+ shows, pretty much every show has had high audience viewership. Not counting the usual masculinist backlash to  Ms. Marvel and She-Hulk, the shows and Holiday Specials were all generally well received by audiences and critics.

In conclusion, box office wise and viewership-wise, Phase Four did just fine and was a moderate success (considering all the extenuating circumstances) when compared to the rest of the box office or streaming shows of 2021 and 2022.

Yes moderate success being the very key words.  Eternals lost money.  Black Widow lost money.  Shang-Chi maybe broke even. Some of that can be attributed to COVID.  Once No Way Home came out you need to throw away that narrative.  You put out something people really want to see they will go.

 

Now Thor4 was $250 million budget with at least $150 marketing.   So the $750 million is not a great return.  MoM about the same number so $950 is decent. BP2 again 250 budget and reports of even more for marketing. So that $800 million number again is only so so.  So figure in inflation, and the only conclusion is box office is down and they are selling fewer tickets.  That is a warning sign. Investors for the MCU expect massive numbers so OK is not good enough, this is Disney's only profitable franchise right now.

 

As for the D+ shows.  The service lost 1.5 bullion last quarter. These shows are expensive and do not bring in new fans.  They do not grow the MCU.  In addition the shows are dropping in popularity.  The Neilson  numbers and Samba numbers are weak especially for She-Hulk and Ms Marvel. Those two shows barely cracked the top ten in Neilson and had no staying power.  By comparison how long and how large have the numbers been for Dahmer and Wednesday, or Starnger Things?  They destroy the MCU numbers.  They are not the viewership number of runaway successes. Yes, some people like them, but they are not that popular, and lose money. Plus, the audience ratings are not that great, they are very average.

 

Finally, if as you state, everything is fine.  Why all the rumors of delays, changes, and unhappiness behind the scene. Those do not emerge when things are just fine. Healthy happy companies do not fire a CEO on a Sunday night after emergency meeting 2 days earlier, if everything is fine. Even if that CEO is bad, it is a very strange and highly unusual move. The cracks in Disney are showing, the can not just stay the course. Part of that is the MCU, and it is the most public part.

Edited December 16, 2022 by drotto

[@therealsilvermane]

On 12/16/2022 at 2:03 PM, D2 said:

There is no hook for the MCU now. 
They are trying with Kang and Secret Wars, but right now they don’t mean anything. 
 

That is a problem because there should have been a hook at the end of Endgame. Instead they ENDED it and now are left creating something from nothing. 

You mean Endgame should have ended with a cliffhanger?

Infinity War had already ended with the cliffhanger of cliffhangers. Tony Stark just died. I'm not sure ending Endgame on a hook 'em cliffhanger was the way to go. IMO, ending on signature poses by the OG Avengers was the perfect way to end the biggest movie in movie history.

Of course, Endgame opened a can of worms that Phase Four is now unraveling. Endgame truly introduced the Multiverse which will be theme of Phases 4-6, it had a variant Loki on the loose, it had Cap pass the Shield to Sam, it left open the question of Vision's survival, it left us a Thor in search of himself, it had Clint Barton running loose in the underworld as Ronin, and all sorts of other consequences which had to be dealt with in Phase Four like SWORD and the PATCH Act.

In a sense, Endgame left plenty of hooks and consequences and stuff to be big somethings in the MCU's future, and we saw that play out in Phase Four and we're still seeing it play out.

[@therealsilvermane]

On 12/16/2022 at 2:55 PM, drotto said:

Eternals lost money.  Black Widow lost money.  Shang-Chi maybe broke even. Some of that can be attributed to COVID.

It can all be attributed to COVID and the resulting lockdowns. WW84 barely made over $100 million because of the pandemic. Many typical theatergoers decided to stream during the pandemic instead if they could, resulting in record opening weekend Disney+ Premium purchases for Black Widow to the tune of like $60 million. Eternals and Shang-Chi offered free streaming within 45 days of theatrical release, giving many people a reason to wait and see it on Disney+. 

Of course, everyone back then was also crying about how theaters were doomed and that the pandemic was hastening the death of the theatrical release and that Black Widow proved people would rather watch a movie on TV rather than go to the theaters, and all sorts of doom and gloom that the movie theater was dead.

Of course, Shang Chi changed that sentiment by defying box office forecasts when everybody thought the movie theater was dead, prompting studios to start making major movie releases theatrical-only (and forego day and date streaming) after the opening weekend success of Shang-Chi. And that's how Shang-Chi saved the movie theater industry.

Edited December 16, 2022 by @therealsilvermane

[D2]

On 12/16/2022 at 5:02 PM, @therealsilvermane said:

You mean Endgame should have ended with a cliffhanger?

Infinity War had already ended with the cliffhanger of cliffhangers. Tony Stark just died. I'm not sure ending Endgame on a hook 'em cliffhanger was the way to go. IMO, ending on signature poses by the OG Avengers was the perfect way to end the biggest movie in movie history.

Of course, Endgame opened a can of worms that Phase Four is now unraveling. Endgame truly introduced the Multiverse which will be theme of Phases 4-6, it had a variant Loki on the loose, it had Cap pass the Shield to Sam, it left open the question of Vision's survival, it left us a Thor in search of himself, it had Clint Barton running loose in the underworld as Ronin, and all sorts of other consequences which had to be dealt with in Phase Four like SWORD and the PATCH Act.

In a sense, Endgame left plenty of hooks and consequences and stuff to be big somethings in the MCU's future, and we saw that play out in Phase Four and we're still seeing it play out.

I see what you are saying, but it’s difficult to have any running dialogue when your perspective is:

 …ending on signature poses by the OG Avengers was the perfect way to end the biggest movie in movie history.

Something says, not open minded to new ideas, to me. 

[drotto]

On 12/16/2022 at 5:12 PM, @therealsilvermane said:

It can all be attributed to COVID and the resulting lockdowns. WW84 barely made over $100 million because of the pandemic. Many typical theatergoers decided to stream during the pandemic instead if they could, resulting in record opening weekend Disney+ Premium purchases for Black Widow to the tune of like $60 million. Eternals and Shang-Chi offered free streaming within 45 days of theatrical release, giving many people a reason to wait and see it on Disney+. 

Of course, everyone back then was also crying about how theaters were doomed and that the pandemic was hastening the death of the theatrical release and that Black Widow proved people would rather watch a movie on TV rather than go to the theaters, and all sorts of doom and gloom that the movie theater was dead.

Of course, Shang Chi changed that sentiment by defying box office forecasts when everybody thought the movie theater was dead, prompting studios to start making major movie releases theatrical only after the opening weekend success of Shang-Chi. And that's how Shang-Chi saved the movie theater industry.

Oh, God not the Shang-Chi saved theaters spoon again.  If any single movie saved theaters temporarily, it was Spider-Man.  Every Disney solo MCU project has under performed, and not met expectations.  Theaters are still in massive trouble, and November and early December has had some of the lowest box office numbers (save when theaters were closed) in decades.  You can no longer use COVID as an excuse. 

 

Try as you may, the current  movie budgets and cost of marketing do not add up for long term survival.  The very stark number are this.  US theaters return about 55% to the movie company.  International markets return about 43%.  China returns a maximum of 25%, if you can even get the movie to open there.  This very simply means you can not keep making movies with $250 million dollar budgets, with $150 to $200 million in marketing and expect to make money.  These numbers mean these movies do not have any chance to be profitable till they reach at least the $700 million box office range.  It is unsustainable, because it means that every film must do great to make anything. This is a massive reason the MCU is in trouble. Increased costs, decreased box office return, and a smaller reliable fan base. The movies are not the universal crowd pleasers they once were, and it is clear that quality is down, the writing has fallen off, and a universe that used to have a clear and understandable path is floundering.  

 

Also streaming is a mess, and not the money making machine every entertainment company hoped for.  This is why Netflix has cancelled a lot of shows, cut staff, and somewhat slowed new projects.  It is why the stock has fallen.  They are not making money.  It is why WB has written off numerous projects, slowed new shows, fired employees, and is consolidating multiple streaming services into one. It is why the entire entertainment division is being put through the ringer. It is why Disney reported a $1.5 billion streaming loss for D+, and stated it will be at least 2 years till it makes any money. Subscriber numbers across all streaming platforms are slowing, or have even dropped.  That is why they are raising rates, and adding advertisements.  The new model of theaters and then going to a proprietary service, makes no where near the money the older DVD/BluRay, VOD, and selling broadcast rights used to.  People have shown they do not want to subscribe to endless services to see all the content, and they are not willing to pay more, after they subscribe. Streaming was suppose to save people money, it has not.  Instead, people have shown they will subscribe, binge and then drop a service, till content builds up again.  There was even a report people were moving back to cable, because it has become more expensive to subscribe to all the services. It has become just like cell phone companies.  There is a finite number of potential subscribers, and without a new influx of people (hint they do not exist), companies are just stealing them form one another.

Edited December 16, 2022 by drotto

[@therealsilvermane]

On 12/16/2022 at 5:39 PM, D2 said:

I see what you are saying, but it’s difficult to have any running dialogue when your perspective is:

 …ending on signature poses by the OG Avengers was the perfect way to end the biggest movie in movie history.

Something says, not open minded to new ideas, to me. 

Au contraire my good person, I'm quite open to new ideas and new perspectives. When you quoted me in your post, you left out my preface "IMO" meaning "in my opinion." And that was just a small part of my previous post. I partially disagreed with your "hook ending" idea and gave clear distinct reasons why there shouldn't be a hook ending and how Marvel had actually done that very thing by leaving a host of loose ends to be resolved and by introducing one big concept, the Multiverse, which would become the foundation for the next big storyline.

[@therealsilvermane]

On 12/16/2022 at 6:35 PM, drotto said:

Oh, God not the Shang-Chi saved theaters spoon again.  If any single movie saved theaters temporarily, it was Spider-Man.

Look, I know No Way Home made almost $2 billion dollars. I know Shang-Chi only made like $440 million. Strict box office receipts isn't what I was talking about.

Do the research. If you look at news articles, industry sentiment, and social media/forum chatter before Shang-Chi's opening weekend, all the talk and sentiment was that the movie theater was dead (hastened by the pandemic) and nearly every major movie release the rest of the year was planned to be day and date streaming or were waiting until the end of the year or 2022 for a theater release. Shang-Chi's Labor Day record opening weekend changed that sentiment giving studios instant faith in movie theaters again.

I'm not the only one who's saying that. Here's an article stating the same thing. I believe I posted this same article before, but here it is again. One of many articles and industry insiders proclaiming Shang-Chi a savior.

https://www.denofgeek.com/movies/shang-chi-is-saving-cinema/

[drotto]

On 12/16/2022 at 7:17 PM, @therealsilvermane said:

Look, I know No Way Home made almost $2 billion dollars. I know Shang-Chi only made like $440 million. Strict box office receipts isn't what I was talking about.

Do the research. If you look at news articles, industry sentiment, and social media/forum chatter before Shang-Chi's opening weekend, all the talk and sentiment was that the movie theater was dead (hastened by the pandemic) and nearly every major movie release the rest of the year was planned to be day and date streaming or were waiting until the end of the year or 2022 for a theater release. Shang-Chi's Labor Day record opening weekend changed that sentiment giving studios instant faith in movie theaters again.

I'm not the only one who's saying that. Here's an article stating the same thing. I believe I posted this same article before, but here it is again. One of many articles and industry insiders proclaiming Shang-Chi a savior.

https://www.denofgeek.com/movies/shang-chi-is-saving-cinema/

One article proves nothing, and times have change that is way out of date at this point.  I listed at least 5 articles earlier in this thread indicating that people in Disney are not happy, and Phase 5 and Phase 6 are undergoing changes.  This has already been proven true by Echo and Agatha being moved and reworked.  Blade being rebuilt from scratch, among others.  Plus we have MoM, Thor4, and yes BP2 underperforming.  We have at least 2 weeks running of the lowest box office in years.

 

https://www.indiewire.com/2022/11/worst-thanksgiving-weekend-box-office-history-1234785622/

https://comicbook.com/movies/news/black-panther-wakanda-forever-wins-second-lowest-box-office-weekend-of-2022/

 

Theaters are still struggling.  They have not been saved.  This is a result of fewer movies, with less interest and lower box office. Couple this with shortened theatrical releases, and they are still very much in trouble.  Shang-Chi did not save anything, and Spider man arguably has only delay things.

[@therealsilvermane]

Disney+ is still essentially in its launch phase. Think Netflix's first years when it began streaming. HBO Max also loses money annually. Apparently, it takes a few years for new streaming services to eventually start turning a profit. Disney has admitted this much already. Also, CNBC recently said that Netflix is losing the streaming war to Disney.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/netflix-is-losing-the-streaming-war-amid-disneys-rapid-growth-.html

[drotto]

On 12/16/2022 at 7:48 PM, @therealsilvermane said:

Disney+ is still essentially in its launch phase. Think Netflix's first years when it began streaming. HBO Max also loses money annually. Apparently, it takes a few years for new streaming services to eventually start turning a profit. Disney has admitted this much already. Also, CNBC recently said that Netflix is losing the streaming war to Disney.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/netflix-is-losing-the-streaming-war-amid-disneys-rapid-growth-.html

In the short term yes, bur I. The long term, I question the profitability of streaming.  If you look at Neilson rating Netflixs absolutely dominates. They usually have 8 if not all of the top 10 spots. They put out far more original content,  it is not even close.  Disney is currently putting out maybe 8 shows per year, and it has a very narrow focus with it being almost all Star Wars or MCU content. If the dominant streaming service is struggling, and HBO with all its original content is struggling, saying D+, especially with its far more narrowly focused content is going to win seems flike fantasy.

 

Since that article was written, Disney announced a far larger then expected 1.5 bullion loss, Disney stock is down, and the CEO was replaced.  The 2 years to profits on light of those events, and reduced original content viewers and Netflix struggles, seems way to optimistic, especially when you add recession to the mix.

[D2]

On 12/16/2022 at 7:01 PM, @therealsilvermane said:

Au contraire my good person, I'm quite open to new ideas and new perspectives. When you quoted me in your post, you left out my preface "IMO" meaning "in my opinion." And that was just a small part of my previous post. I partially disagreed with your "hook ending" idea and gave clear distinct reasons why there shouldn't be a hook ending and how Marvel had actually done that very thing by leaving a host of loose ends to be resolved and by introducing one big concept, the Multiverse, which would become the foundation for the next big storyline.

Okay… all right. 
 

Keep in mind that obviously this is all in hindsight, which makes things much easier to analyze, but what seems to be the problem now is that there isn’t any tension. 
 

Be it that the MCU did such a great job of building up the original conflict and now people are waiting for the void to be filled? Be it that regardless of what they tried to do next, there would inevitably be a void…

I think they could have shown a different cosmic being, that was also effected by Thanos’ snap, and drew their attention in. 
 

 

[Artboy99]

On 12/16/2022 at 12:03 PM, D2 said:

There is no hook for the MCU now. 
They are trying with Kang and Secret Wars, but right now they don’t mean anything. 
 

That is a problem because there should have been a hook at the end of Endgame. Instead they ENDED it and now are left creating something from nothing. 
 

I think everyone will be pleasantly surprised, with Secret Wars to launch the X-Men in 2026-2027. 
 

All Marvel has to do now is not lose the faith of its fan base in 3 years. 
 

That won’t be easy however. 

Not to be negative but they have already lost me. I was a major MCU fan, that has been turned off by what they have released in phase 4.  Love and Thunder was so abysmal to me and the catalyst that firmly shoved me in an "anti-Marvel" direction. Ms. Marvel was terrible, She-Hulk was awful, and I don't want to go to see 5/10 (at best) films and Wakanda Forever was just more pandering.

[D2]

On 12/18/2022 at 7:27 PM, Artboy99 said:

Not to be negative but they have already lost me. I was a major MCU fan, that has been turned off by what they have released in phase 4.  Love and Thunder was so abysmal to me and the catalyst that firmly shoved me in an "anti-Marvel" direction. Ms. Marvel was terrible, She-Hulk was awful, and I don't want to go to see 5/10 (at best) films and Wakanda Forever was just more pandering.

I get that. 
 

What I have learned over the years is that:

Enjoy the movies that you love, because the vast majority of movies won’t live up to the ones you do love.

There will be sequels and prequels to movies that you love that will ruin that love for the original movies that you cherish, but that love will return eventually to those originals in time. 

1/10 movies will be breathtaking. 
2/10 movies will be amazing. 
3/10 movies will be fine. 
4/10 movies will be forgettable. 

[drotto]

On 12/18/2022 at 2:03 PM, D2 said:

Okay… all right. 
 

Keep in mind that obviously this is all in hindsight, which makes things much easier to analyze, but what seems to be the problem now is that there isn’t any tension. 
 

Be it that the MCU did such a great job of building up the original conflict and now people are waiting for the void to be filled? Be it that regardless of what they tried to do next, there would inevitably be a void…

I think they could have shown a different cosmic being, that was also effected by Thanos’ snap, and drew their attention in. 
 

 

You could almost argue they built things up too well for Endgame. When you make the stakes a villains that succeeds in killing 1/2 the universe, where do you go from there? So we have been offered a couple of potential universe ending threats in Wanda and Gorr, it comes across as ho hum, because you ultimately know the heroes will win.  In reality, that is a massive amount of comic stories, the worst villain ever seen almost wins, but the hero pulls out the win. But in films built for a mass audience for some reason it gets tired more quickly. I am not sure why, but it does. Thus the void, you are describing. We have been given new massive threats, but they are dispatched too easily, where Thanos was hard to beat, and there was sacrifice. What can Kang do that Thanos did not? 

 

I also think the issues that come with picking the multiverse approach (which I personally dislike), adds to the lack of tension. If there are infinite universes, and time travel, there is inherently a lowering of tension because the multiverse inherently lowers stakes. Nothing is permanent, anything can be reversed, or changed. In addition, I think many people find multiverse storytelling confusing, quickly becoming confused what happened in which reality, and what versions of characters belong to which ones. Plus, it can retroactively damage previous content, because things likely will be changed.  How often have comics been criticized for nobody every really being dead? Why are they bringing that negative into the MCU? 

[D2]

On 12/18/2022 at 10:55 PM, drotto said:

You could almost argue they built things up too well for Endgame. When you make the stakes a villains that succeeds in killing 1/2 the universe, where do you go from there? So we have been offered a couple of potential universe ending threats in Wanda and Gorr, it comes across as ho hum, because you ultimately know the heroes will win.  In reality, that is a massive amount of comic stories, the worst villain ever seen almost wins, but the hero pulls out the win. But in films built for a mass audience for some reason it gets tired more quickly. I am not sure why, but it does. Thus the void, you are describing. We have been given new massive threats, but they are dispatched too easily, where Thanos was hard to beat, and there was sacrifice. What can Kang do that Thanos did not? 

 

I also think the issues that come with picking the multiverse approach (which I personally dislike), adds to the lack of tension. If there are infinite universes, and time travel, there is inherently a lowering of tension because the multiverse inherently lowers stakes. Nothing is permanent, anything can be reversed, or changed. In addition, I think many people find multiverse storytelling confusing, quickly becoming confused what happened in which reality, and what versions of characters belong to which ones. Plus, it can retroactively damage previous content, because things likely will be changed.  How often have comics been criticized for nobody every really being dead? Why are they bringing that negative into the MCU? 

So, yes. I do agree with you, but I would introduce a side angle to the perspective. 

Rather than the MCU trekking down the path of biggerer and biggerer, like you describe, which is always a failed avenue, I think they are better to take a “Game of Thrones” approach. Keep the audience guessing. 

What I would think would really flip it on its head, is if the reason they stepped into the whole multiverse scenario in the first place, is so they can uproot the apple tree, annihilate all of entirety, to introduce The X-Men through a ‘Days of Future Past’ / ‘Age of Apocalypse’ World. 

To your point, that’s comics’ biggest flaw, nothing matters. So keep them guessing. 

In movies though, things should matter, because these actors have a 20 year shelf life, max. They should play that to their advantage. 

Edited December 19, 2022 by D2

[kimik]

Based on the post-Covid box office success of the Spider-Man and to a lesser extent Venom franchises, maybe DIS should close the Marvel studios side of the shop and license everything to Sony instead for Phase 5.......................

Edited December 19, 2022 by kimik