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Coronavirus's impact on the worldwide box office
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As of March 9, the impact of COVID-19 on the box office has been largely limited to China, Japan, South Korea, and Italy, four of the countries most affected by the health crisis to date. Theater closures and a steep downturn in admissions in those markets have already made a dent on 2020’s global box office outlook. China and South Korea, the world’s number two and five markets respectively, combined to represent 25 percent of the global box office in 2018. The downturn in those markets alone will likely stall further growth in APAC, international, and global figures in 2020.

 

In Italy, the country with the highest number of COVID-19 cases outside of China, regional quarantines have prompted theater closings in parts of the country. The Italian market posted a solid recovery in 2019 after a downturn in 2018, recording a 14.4 percent bump in box office and 13.6 percent increase in admissions. That momentum has stalled with a large-scale market disruption. The Hollywood titles most affected by the Italian closures to-date have been Bad Boys for Life ($1.5M through three weeks) and The Grudge ($59k, new release), neither of them established IPs in the country. Bad Boys II grossed $3.3 million in Italy in 2003 while the previous iteration of The Grudge opened to $2 million in 2004 and ended its theatrical run with $6.2 million. 

 

Box office data in North America, however, remains relatively stable and mostly in line with existing projections. Universal’s The Invisible Man and Disney Pixar’s Onward both performed within the expected range of our original forecasts. The Invisible Man opened in the last weekend of February to $28.2 million domestically from a projected range of $25 to $30 million. 

 

Onward finished its debut weekend on March 8 with a total of $39.1 million, falling just below our projected range of $40 to $60 million.

 

Despite coming from major studios, neither of the films are tied to an ongoing franchise that would provide a definite basis for comparison. 2020 domestic box office finished the weekend of March 8 1.9 percent ahead of 2019. That statistic is set to change in the coming days, but not because of the Coronavirus: March 9, 2019 saw Disney’s release of Captain Marvel, the first major blockbuster of what turned out to be a record-breaking year for the studio.

 

While it is logical to assume fears of the virus have influenced domestic attendance at some level in 2020, domestic box office figures to date haven’t significantly deviated from our projections. That isn’t to suggest the market will not be impacted in the future, simply that current data shows no direct impact to the moviegoing market. 

 

The COVID-19 health crisis comes during a quiet period for Hollywood tentpoles, with few major worldwide day-date releases scheduled for the coming weeks. The most high-profile release delay so far has been James Bond title No Time to Die. The Bond franchise is in a unique position among Hollywood tentpoles, perhaps the single-most series dependant on a closely coordinated and carefully scheduled global marketing campaign. Such an effort is nearly impossible to execute properly in the immediate future. Hours after No Time to Die moved its U.S. release to November, Universal’s Trolls World Tour moved its release up a week to take up Bond’s April 10 slot. 

 

This is an unprecedented situation on a global scale for the cinema market, with virtually no point of relevant comparison. The closest reference in our database is the 2009 H1N1 “Swine Flu” epidemic in Mexico that caused cinema closures and an overall downturn in attendance during the months of April and May. 

 

The Mexican box office saw steep declines over a four week period during the height of the outbreak: April 24-26, May 8-10, May 15-17. Cinemas were closed and didn’t report any box office on the weekend of May 1-3. The only title affected was Universal’s Fast and Furious, already in the 4th week of its run when the box office was affected. Fast and Furious ended its run in Mexico with $13.2M, significantly ahead of its franchise predecessor Tokyo Drift ($5.3M, 2006) but well behind the following entry in the series, Fast Five ($25.9M, 2011). For context, the last Fast & Furious film in Mexico, Hobbs & Shaw, grossed $17.3M last year. A new entry, F9, is currently scheduled for release in May. 

By year end, total admissions in Mexican cinemas were down 1.43 percent year over year despite the crisis, with admissions actually seeing a 1.2 percent bump when compared to 2007. The market rebounded in the summer months, as the rate of infections in the country dropped. Mexico went on to set a new box office record the following year. 

There are numerous key factors that make this comparison imperfect, if not wholly irrelevant–particularly in the global nature of the spread of COVID-19. The comparison with Mexico’s H1N1 crisis merely points out the potential for any individual market to recover once the health crisis is under control. 

 

Cinema chains around the world have already begun preparations to combat the virus at their locations. The National Association of Theatre Owners provided its members with resources on preparing for a flu pandemic in January.

 

On March 6, multinational exhibitor Cineworld, one of the largest circuits in North America, issued a statement addressing investor concerns around the impact of COVID-19 on its business:

 

Thus far, we have not observed any material impact on our movie theatre admissions due to COVID-19. Following an increase in admissions in the first two months of the year against the same period in the previous year, we continue to see good levels of admissions in all our territories, despite the reported spread of COVID-19. Although the release of the new Bond movie has been postponed to November 2020 largely due to closure of cinemas in the Asian markets, the studios have advised us that in the countries in which we operate, they currently remain committed to their release schedule for the coming months and remainder of the year. There can be no certainty as to the future impact of COVID-19.  We are however taking measures to ensure that we prepare our business for all possible eventualities. Should conditions relating to COVID-19 continue or worsen, we have measures at our disposal to reduce the impact on our business including, but not limited to, capex postponement and cost reduction. 

 

As of today, the release calendar doesn’t show any other major changes stemming from the Bond delay. Regional cinema closures in the United States, due to inclement weather like winter storms or hurricanes, aren’t unusual and usually don’t prompt rescheduling by the studios. 

Craziest of times!

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The last movie I saw in the theaters was Rise of Skywalker... never saw Joker in the theaters and am waiting for it to pop up somewhere for free.

 

I was REALLY looking forward to seeing Bond in the theater as well as Mulan and Greyhound. 

They delayed Bond... but Mulan and Greyhound are apparently good to go.  Unfortunately I am not. 

Every day that I am 'not' getting sick is a good day. 

You see, taking an overcrowded train and then the subway every day I encounter and see a lot.  You can tell people all day long with words, signs, commercials, press conferences and everything else to cover their mouth when they sneeze or cough or to have basic self awareness as it is best to conduct themselves during this.  They aren't doing it.  Yesterday, someone sneezed right into the open air yesterday with no regard to covering their mouth.  They were standing up and checking their phone with one hand while holding the passenger bar with the other.

You cannot suddenly teach good manners even in times of crisis.

So, no... I will not be rolling the dice and sitting next to strangers for two hour stretches right now. 

 

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1 hour ago, Bosco685 said:

That is nuts after all the news of coronaviruses cases and warnings. It's like some just don't care.

I would like to believe that they just are still wrapped around poor habits like that lady that was giving the press conference about precautions and then in the middle of it put her hand to her mouth.   Let's be honest, for some people right now this is the first they are paying attention to washing their own hands.

 

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E3 2020 Cancelled

 

The biggest trade show in video games is skipping a year. E3 2020, which was planned to take place at the Los Angeles Convention Center this June, is cancelled as a result of the Covid-19 coronavirus that is currently spreading across the globe, the organizers of the conference said today.

 

“After careful consultation with our member companies regarding the health and safety of everyone in our industry—our fans, our employees, our exhibitors and our longtime E3 partners—we have made the difficult decision to cancel E3 2020, scheduled for June 9-11 in Los Angeles,” the Entertainment Software Association, the video game lobbyist group that runs the trade show, said in a statement to press this morning.

 

The ESA added that it will be looking “to coordinate an online experience to showcase industry announcements and news in June 2020.” Traditionally, E3 has two parts. During the first few days of the show, from Saturday through Monday, major video game publishers like Microsoft and Ubisoft hold press conferences to showcase trailers announce their latest games, while from Tuesday through Thursday, the show floor opens for business deals and video game demos. The first part will be far easier to replicate than the second. Microsoft has already announced an Xbox digital event for this year, as has Ubisoft.

 

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As the impact of coronavirus sweeps the globe and the World Health Organization officially declared it a pandemic, Poland, India, Lebanon and Kuwait are the latest countries to entirely or partially close cinemas.

 

Polish officials confirmed today that all schools, universities, cinemas, theaters and museums are to close for two weeks from Thursday to curtail the spread of the virus.

 

In Lebanon and Kuwait cinemas are now closed while other Middle East countries are considering the same measure with a number of wider restrictions coming into place.

 

In India, certain states are taking preventative measures including the closure of cinemas. Kerala, which has a population of more than 35 million, has closed educational institutions and cinemas until March 31.

 

Cinemas are closed in markets including Italy, Czech Republic, Iran and China, where tens of thousands of theaters remain shuttered. There are partial closures in Korea, Japan and Hong Kong and some cinemas have been closed in northern France.

 

Distribution executives we spoke to today are scrambling to assess the impact of these latest cinema closures and are bracing for more countries to follow suit. As one international executive told us, “We have been thinking about Cannes contingencies this week, but this latest wave of closures has got us all planning even harder around dating and release schedules. All our movies are being affected.”

 

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This kind of reminds me of that scene with Chunk in Goonies telling the story about the movie theater. Can you imagine what will happen if someone pulls that stunt coughing, sneezing, and blowing their nose in a theater? No way people are staying around for that.

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On Saturday, thousands of people dressed as Smurfs — the fictional, blue gnome-like characters — gathered in Landerneau, France to try to break a world record. The mayor of Landerneau defended the decision to hold the rally despite concerns about the coronavirus pandemic. 

 

More than 3,500 Smurf cosplayers gathered over the weekend in an attempt to break the Guinness World Record for the largest group of people dressed as Smurfs. Last year, the award was given to a group of 2,762 who gathered for a carnival in Lauchringen, Germany.

 

Saturday's event occurred just a day before France officially banned gatherings of more than 1,000 people to prevent the spread of the virus, which has now infected more than 120,000 people worldwide and killed more than 4,300. 

 

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