G.A.tor Posted February 21, 2010 Share Posted February 21, 2010 tec 37 is probably the toughest of them all outside of 28 Really? What about 36? generally not as tough as 37... I think I have seen about a dozen copies for sale of the years, and maybe only 5-6 (half) of 37... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G.A.tor Posted February 21, 2010 Share Posted February 21, 2010 I think we have done this exercise before but, in order of toughness, we will call this the "gator index" 1 being easiest, 30 being toughest (impossible)...note I don't seperate for restored , unrestored, etc...just "a" copy issue-toughness 28-28 37-25 36-23 29-22 35-20 31-20 27-18 30-18 32-17 34-16 33-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G.A.tor Posted February 21, 2010 Share Posted February 21, 2010 as an example, 38 would be a 5 in my 1-30 scale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sardo Numspar Posted February 21, 2010 Share Posted February 21, 2010 I think we have done this exercise before but, in order of toughness, we will call this the "gator index" 1 being easiest, 30 being toughest (impossible)...note I don't seperate for restored , unrestored, etc...just "a" copy issue-toughness 28-28 37-25 36-23 29-22 35-20 31-20 27-18 30-18 32-17 34-16 33-15 You really would put 27 that far down the list Rick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G.A.tor Posted February 21, 2010 Share Posted February 21, 2010 I think we have done this exercise before but, in order of toughness, we will call this the "gator index" 1 being easiest, 30 being toughest (impossible)...note I don't seperate for restored , unrestored, etc...just "a" copy issue-toughness 28-28 37-25 36-23 29-22 35-20 31-20 27-18 30-18 32-17 34-16 33-15 You really would put 27 that far down the list Rick? yep, 27 is just a matter of $'s... I personally have owned (I might be missing one here or there) 28-1 copy 37-2 copies 36-2 copies 29-7 copies 35-5 copies 31-14 copies 27-5 copies 30-2 copies 32-2 copies (actually, I might move this one up to 27/30 level...it was actually the last tec I needed when I completed my first run) 34-2 copies 33-1 copy (first one I bought) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bat-Man Posted February 21, 2010 Share Posted February 21, 2010 I think we have done this exercise before but, in order of toughness, we will call this the "gator index" 1 being easiest, 30 being toughest (impossible)...note I don't seperate for restored , unrestored, etc...just "a" copy issue-toughness 28-28 37-25 36-23 29-22 35-20 31-20 27-18 30-18 32-17 34-16 33-15 Interesting. Very nice. I trust your theory here as you have owned multiples of each. I always thought 36 was the toughest (after the elusive 28) because I have seen 0 for sale recently - while I have seen 3 Tec 37's (one of which I bought at a CGC 1.0) Well glad I own a 37 then. (thumbs u Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G.A.tor Posted February 21, 2010 Share Posted February 21, 2010 I think we have done this exercise before but, in order of toughness, we will call this the "gator index" 1 being easiest, 30 being toughest (impossible)...note I don't seperate for restored , unrestored, etc...just "a" copy issue-toughness 28-28 37-25 36-23 29-22 35-20 31-20 27-18 30-18 32-17 34-16 33-15 Interesting. Very nice. I trust your theory here as you have owned multiples of each. I always thought 36 was the toughest (after the elusive 28) because I have seen 0 for sale recently - while I have seen 3 Tec 37's (one of which I bought at a CGC 1.0) Well glad I own a 37 then. (thumbs u you saw your WTB thread where I posted 2 of my 36's...and 1koko sold 1, and socratic wonder found one in SD 2 years ago and sold it, and there was an ebay copy, etc...more 36's than 37's...just that 37's experienced a little "bump" recently, but they are tough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
campued1010 Posted February 21, 2010 Share Posted February 21, 2010 Picking this up next weekend. This leaves me with 30 and 34 left. Man this GA collecting is tough but really fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G.A.tor Posted February 21, 2010 Share Posted February 21, 2010 I did a cgc census analysis sometime back...but, as an example, there are 32 #36's and only 28 # 37's... here they are again 27-45 copies on census 28-20 copies on census 29-32 copies 30-26 31-47 32-25 33-53 34-31 35-30 36-32 37-28 and just for fun, 38-58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G.A.tor Posted February 21, 2010 Share Posted February 21, 2010 Picking this up next weekend. This leaves me with 30 and 34 left. Man this GA collecting is tough but really fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yannis Posted February 21, 2010 Share Posted February 21, 2010 Hate to jump in and disagree but from my personal experience, I have had 4 tec 37s in the last year and only 1 copy of 36. And there is a 37 on the Weiss auction as we speak. I still do not see a 36 for sale anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yannis Posted February 21, 2010 Share Posted February 21, 2010 and there was a 37 roaming around on ebay this last month with an asking price of nearly 2k (a 1.0 blue) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G.A.tor Posted February 21, 2010 Share Posted February 21, 2010 Hate to jump in and disagree but from my personal experience, I have had 4 tec 37s in the last year and only 1 copy of 36. And there is a 37 on the Weiss auction as we speak. I still do not see a 36 for sale anywhere. as mentioned, there was a big influx of 37's in the past year...but, overall/over years, a few more 36's (keep in mind, they are neck and neck)... I sold 1 tec 37 and 2 tec 36's this year (thumbs u Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primetime Posted February 21, 2010 Share Posted February 21, 2010 I think we have done this exercise before but, in order of toughness, we will call this the "gator index" 1 being easiest, 30 being toughest (impossible)...note I don't seperate for restored , unrestored, etc...just "a" copy issue-toughness 28-28 37-25 36-23 29-22 35-20 31-20 27-18 30-18 32-17 34-16 33-15 You really would put 27 that far down the list Rick? and 36 a slot above 29? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primetime Posted February 21, 2010 Share Posted February 21, 2010 tec 37 is probably the toughest of them all outside of 28 Really? What about 36? generally not as tough as 37... I think I have seen about a dozen copies for sale of the years, and maybe only 5-6 (half) of 37... 37 is certainly the "cheapest" of the "rolling-fog" covers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G.A.tor Posted February 21, 2010 Share Posted February 21, 2010 I think we have done this exercise before but, in order of toughness, we will call this the "gator index" 1 being easiest, 30 being toughest (impossible)...note I don't seperate for restored , unrestored, etc...just "a" copy issue-toughness 28-28 37-25 36-23 29-22 35-20 31-20 27-18 30-18 32-17 34-16 33-15 You really would put 27 that far down the list Rick? and 36 a slot above 29? sure, 29 has come up for sale at least as often as 36, maybe a wee bit more...and, there are more census copies too, I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bat-Man Posted February 21, 2010 Share Posted February 21, 2010 Picking this up next weekend. This leaves me with 30 and 34 left. Man this GA collecting is tough but really fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentaurMan Posted February 21, 2010 Share Posted February 21, 2010 I did a cgc census analysis sometime back...but, as an example, there are 32 #36's and only 28 # 37's... here they are again 27-45 copies on census 28-20 copies on census 29-32 copies 30-26 31-47 32-25 33-53 34-31 35-30 36-32 37-28 and just for fun, 38-58 But you MUST always remember that the more valuable a book is, the more likely it will be slabbed. Every single time, that law holds true. So let's pretend you had no idea about the scarcity of a run, but you know what the run is worth in unrestored 2.0 (a constant grade). For 'Tec 27-38, you'd expect the order of "most slabbed" to "least slabbed" to be: 1. 27 2. 29 3. 31 4. 33 5. 38 6. 35 7. 28 8. 37 9. 36 10. 32 11. 30 12. 34 (Please note that I'm not a pre-Robin Tec pricing expert. Adjust that list as you'd see fit, for value of books in unrestored 2.0). Your order of least to most slabbed: 1. 28 2. 32 3. 30 4. 37 5. 35 6. 34 7. 36 8. 29 9. 27 10. 31 11. 33 12. 38 If my economic rule of scarcity held true, #1 on the first list would be #12 on the second list, #2 on the first list would be #11 on the second list, etc., so that every book had a "sum rank" of 13. In reality, here are the sum ranks: 27=10 28=8 29=10 30=14 31=13 32=12 33=15 34=18 35=11 36=16 37=12 38=17 Any number below 13 is scarcer than economics would've predicted, while any number above it is more common. So for this run, the scarcity is: 28=rarest 27 29 35 32 37 31 30 33 36 38 34=easiest Unfortunately, doing this for a run of 12 books doesn't properly capture the range of the economics. Some of these books are very similar in value, while others are outliers. Rank-ordering them is linear and doesn't capture this dynamic. However, if you had hundreds of books, thousands even, across publishers, years, genres, whatever, and you knew what they were all worth in unrestored 2.0, you could rank them accordingly on value, figure out the correct sum rank, and compare it to actual copies on the census. You'd have a HIGHLY accurate scarcity guide at that point, way more accurate than Gerber. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G.A.tor Posted February 21, 2010 Share Posted February 21, 2010 I love the Win-dex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primetime Posted February 21, 2010 Share Posted February 21, 2010 Hate to jump in and disagree but from my personal experience, I have had 4 tec 37s in the last year and only 1 copy of 36. And there is a 37 on the Weiss auction as we speak. I still do not see a 36 for sale anywhere. that has been my experience too--I've seen more 37s than 36s, but I've only been in the Pre Robin hunt for 3 years...Gator has a much better feel for the scarcity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...