ASM 300 heating up 8 8

[valiantman]

On 10/25/2021 at 6:06 PM, MAR1979 said:

On 10/25/2021 at 5:58 PM, valiantman said:

The number is derived from the market sales recorded on GPAnalysis.com.  GPAnalysis.com has been separating direct edition and newsstand for ASM #300 for a few years.  We can see the relative frequency of newsstand and direct editions coming to market across all grades.  Over the past 12 months, there have been 2 copies of CGC 9.8 newsstand ASM #300 with recorded sales.  In the same timeframe, there have been 87 copies of CGC 9.8 direct editions sold.  That's 2.2%.

Since there are 1,479 CGC graded 9.8s, at 2.2%, that would be 32.5 newsstand copies.  That's the source of the 33 estimate.  The same can be done for 9.6, 9.4, etc.

I'm sure people have all kinds of anecdotes they'd prefer to use, but putting actual data toward the problem, we get an answer.  It's an estimate, but the chart is based on nearly 2,000 sales.  You can't sample 27,000 of something 2,000 times without getting a strong correlation to reality.

Let's see how it pans out over the next year or 2 as more an more folks send them in when they see the going rate.

Sure - it will be a never-ending experiment since we can't actually find out how many of each exist.  For ASM #300, however, I've been tracking them by hand for at least 6 years, and it has always been 2% to 3% for CGC 9.8 newsstand vs. direct edition.

[valiantman]

On 10/25/2021 at 6:07 PM, Randall Dowling said:

On 10/25/2021 at 5:43 PM, valiantman said:

Bullish isn't just reasonable, it's inevitable. 

Now you sound like Thanos!  

...and when CGC 9.8 ASM #300 newsstand hits $30,000 over the next few years instead of dropping below $10,000 where will that bring you?

Back to me. 

[valiantman]

On 10/25/2021 at 2:36 PM, BigLeagueCHEW said:

Any data on the Mint 9.9's if it wasn't already asked? How many do you think, if any, are Newsstands?

No data on the ten 9.9s for ASM #300, but I would think that none are newsstands.  It wouldn't be surprising if one is, though.  There are 10 on the census, with about a 2% to 3% chance of newsstand for each.  It's not a perfectly Bayesian calculation, but that would be 20% to 30% chance that at least one of the 9.9s is newsstand.

[valiantman]

Since the $20,000 price for a CGC 9.8 ASM #300 newsstand is the current point of discussion, let's add to the topic by saying that if the estimate of 33 newsstand copies being CGC graded at 9.8 is close to accurate, I'll point out that CGC 9.8 TMNT #1 first printing currently has a CGC Census of 34 copies.  Are any of them available for anywhere close to $20,000?    What's more plentiful?  TMNT collectors who want the best condition 1980s TMNT key or Spider-Man collectors who want the best condition 1980s Spider-Man key?  

Bullish on CGC 9.8 ASM #300 newsstand at $20,000 might look foolish, but so did $20,000 on CGC 9.8 TMNT #1 at one point (...and looking foolish at $20,000 on bitcoin, while we're at it).

21,000,000 bitcoins, 34 CGC 9.8 TMNT #1, about 33 CGC 9.8 ASM #300 newsstand... and the ASM #300 is currently cheapest by a factor of at least three. 

Edited October 25, 2021 by valiantman

[BigLeagueCHEW]

On 10/25/2021 at 4:21 PM, valiantman said:

Since the $20,000 price for a CGC 9.8 ASM #300 newsstand is the current point of discussion, let's add to the topic by saying that if the estimate of 33 newsstand copies being CGC graded at 9.8 is close to accurate, I'll point out that CGC 9.8 TMNT #1 first printing currently has a CGC Census of 34 copies.  Are any of them available for anywhere close to $20,000?    What's more plentiful?  TMNT collectors who want the best condition 1980s TMNT key or Spider-Man collectors who want the best condition 1980s Spider-Man key?  

Bullish on CGC 9.8 ASM #300 newsstand at $20,000 might look foolish, but so did $20,000 on CGC 9.8 TMNT #1 at one point (...and looking foolish at $20,000 on bitcoin, while we're at it).

21,000,000 bitcoins, 34 CGC 9.8 TMNT #1, about 33 CGC 9.8 ASM #300 newsstand... and the ASM #300 is currently cheapest by a factor of at least three. 

This makes sense to me, but there are still 1,400 ish 9.8 copies that a collector would say “direct is fine for me, big deal over a barcode with the same content”. If there were this many copies of TMNT #1 what would the numbers be for both?

I wonder if we had 34 copies of ASM 300 9.8 direct only, even number with Turtles, would it surpass TMNT #1 9.8 in market value? 

Venom would be king over both 

Edited October 26, 2021 by BigLeagueCHEW

[valiantman]

On 10/25/2021 at 7:33 PM, BigLeagueCHEW said:

This makes sense to me, but there are still 1,400 ish 9.8 copies that a collector would say “direct is fine for me, big deal over a barcode with the same content”. 

Right, but what if 50 of those 1,400 decide newsstand is the one they want? What about 100? 

These market changes don't require everyone to agree. When fewer than 3% are newsstand 9.8s, you only need 4% to want it to have a problem. 96% can still prefer direct.

Edited October 26, 2021 by valiantman

[BigLeagueCHEW]

On 10/25/2021 at 6:20 PM, valiantman said:

Right, but what if 50 of those 1,400 decide newsstand is the one they want? What about 100? 

These market changes don't require everyone to agree. When fewer than 3% are newsstand 9.8s, you only need 4% to want it to have a problem. 96% can still prefer direct.

True, just 2 bidders per auction with deep pockets to drive that value up 

[lou_fine]

On 10/25/2021 at 6:32 PM, BigLeagueCHEW said:

True, just 2 bidders per auction with deep pockets to drive that value up 

Well, if you believe some of the stories around here, just one bidder at a HA auction who then puts it back in inventory to use in future auctions.  

[BigLeagueCHEW]

On 10/26/2021 at 11:54 PM, lou_fine said:

Well, if you believe some of the stories around here, just one bidder at a HA auction who then puts it back in inventory to use in future auctions.  

Very shilly response 

[jjonahjameson11]

On 10/25/2021 at 9:20 PM, valiantman said:

Right, but what if 50 of those 1,400 decide newsstand is the one they want? What about 100? 

These market changes don't require everyone to agree. When fewer than 3% are newsstand 9.8s, you only need 4% to want it to have a problem. 96% can still prefer direct.

That’s not true.  Multiple players are not required.  All it takes is one guy with funds to corner the market.  

[jjonahjameson11]

On 10/25/2021 at 9:32 PM, BigLeagueCHEW said:

True, just 2 bidders per auction with deep pockets to drive that value up 

Nope, all you need is one seller to set the minimum price at auction (or elsewhere), and one buyer to bite at a ridiculously high price.

As reference, the the asm 298-300 CGC 9.9 set on eBay for $350K.  If you want it, that’s the price of admission 

[valiantman]

On 10/27/2021 at 12:25 PM, jjonahjameson11 said:

On 10/25/2021 at 8:20 PM, valiantman said:

Right, but what if 50 of those 1,400 decide newsstand is the one they want? What about 100? 

These market changes don't require everyone to agree. When fewer than 3% are newsstand 9.8s, you only need 4% to want it to have a problem. 96% can still prefer direct.

That’s not true.  Multiple players are not required.  All it takes is one guy with funds to corner the market.  

My point was that a small group of people preferring newsstands could easily be higher than the number of available copies, even if the vast majority of collectors (such as 96%) don't care at all.

Your revision makes it possible for "one guy with funds" to flip the -script on the market, so you're saying 99.9% of collectors can actively hate newsstands and it wouldn't keep them from going up in value.

Someone called me "bullish" earlier, so I think you'd have to be the whole Taurus constellation. 

[jjonahjameson11]

On 10/27/2021 at 1:35 PM, valiantman said:

My point was that a small group of people preferring newsstands could easily be higher than the number of available copies, even if the vast majority of collectors (such as 96%) don't care at all.

Your revision makes it possible for "one guy with funds" to flip the --script on the market, so you're saying 99.9% of collectors can actively hate newsstands and it wouldn't keep them from going up in value.

Someone called me "bullish" earlier, so I think you'd have to be the whole Taurus constellation. 

Doesn’t change the fact that my point is valid.  One person can go after the the market, especially with it being so small

[valiantman]

On 10/27/2021 at 12:37 PM, jjonahjameson11 said:

On 10/27/2021 at 12:35 PM, valiantman said:

My point was that a small group of people preferring newsstands could easily be higher than the number of available copies, even if the vast majority of collectors (such as 96%) don't care at all.

Your revision makes it possible for "one guy with funds" to flip the ---script on the market, so you're saying 99.9% of collectors can actively hate newsstands and it wouldn't keep them from going up in value.

Someone called me "bullish" earlier, so I think you'd have to be the whole Taurus constellation. 

Doesn’t change the fact that my point is valid.  One person can go after the the market, especially with it being so small

True.  The general response that I have seen to increases in the newsstand market sales have been, "well, I prefer direct editions" or "barcodes are ugly", which seems to imply "you'll never convince me to pay a penny more for a newsstand", as if that settles the debate.

In reality, an extreme majority of collectors can actively dislike newsstands and it still won't keep them from increasing in value, if there are even a few (or in your example, just one) who pursue them and are willing to pay a premium.

Since there are always a few people who let data drive their decision-making, it's really just a question of the data and not a question of whether barcodes are ugly. 

[BigLeagueCHEW]

On 10/27/2021 at 10:37 AM, jjonahjameson11 said:

Doesn’t change the fact that my point is valid.  One person can go after the the market, especially with it being so small

 How is that 88 copies coming along mystery shopper 

[BigLeagueCHEW]

On 10/27/2021 at 10:28 AM, jjonahjameson11 said:

Nope, all you need is one seller to set the minimum price at auction (or elsewhere), and one buyer to bite at a ridiculously high price.

As reference, the the asm 298-300 CGC 9.9 set on eBay for $350K.  If you want it, that’s the price of admission 

True, I still remember years ago when a mint 9.9 new holder was on eBay for $25K and thought that was a lot. Wonder what happened with that BIN? I think I may have mentioned it before. 

[jjonahjameson11]

On 10/27/2021 at 2:40 PM, BigLeagueCHEW said:

 How is that 88 copies coming along mystery shopper 

Just a correction…my goal is 80 copies, and I’m at 54 now (maybe 55?  It’s been so long since the most recent copies were submitted to CGC for grading)

However, I had to hit the pause button on my ASM 300 purchases because I was able to strike a deal on a piece of OA that I’ve wanted for some time.  The seller and I worked out a time payment plan and I still have several months to go before the artwork is mine.

for me, OA is a one of a kind item that will always take precedence over comic books so I likely won’t be acquiring additional copies until the new year (unless they arrive via trade) 👍🏻

[BigLeagueCHEW]

On 10/27/2021 at 11:53 AM, jjonahjameson11 said:

Just a correction…my goal is 80 copies, and I’m at 54 now (maybe 55?  It’s been so long since the most recent copies were submitted to CGC for grading)

However, I had to hit the pause button on my ASM 300 purchases because I was able to strike a deal on a piece of OA that I’ve wanted for some time.  The seller and I worked out a time payment plan and I still have several months to go before the artwork is mine.

for me, OA is a one of a kind item that will always take precedence over comic books so I likely won’t be acquiring additional copies until the new year (unless they arrive via trade) 👍🏻

Awesome, please share the OA when you get a chance 

I never owned a copy of OA, not sure if I ever will, always out of the ball park for what I want.

GL on the future to 80 

[jjonahjameson11]

On 10/27/2021 at 3:27 PM, BigLeagueCHEW said:

Awesome, please share the OA when you get a chance 

I never owned a copy of OA, not sure if I ever will, always out of the ball park for what I want.

GL on the future to 80 

Will do…just remind me in Feb/Mar, in case I forget 

[MAR1979]

On 10/27/2021 at 2:53 PM, jjonahjameson11 said:

Just a correction…my goal is 80 copies, and I’m at 54 now (maybe 55?  It’s been so long since the most recent copies were submitted to CGC for grading)

However, I had to hit the pause button on my ASM 300 purchases because I was able to strike a deal on a piece of OA that I’ve wanted for some time.  The seller and I worked out a time payment plan and I still have several months to go before the artwork is mine.

for me, OA is a one of a kind item that will always take precedence over comic books so I likely won’t be acquiring additional copies until the new year (unless they arrive via trade) 👍🏻

Interesting goal.  My opinion OCA over Comics.  Great thing about art is a small overlooked defect 10 years back does not affect the items value. Not to mention so much easier than various degrees of feeding into "OCD-ness" that exist with condition being king type collectibles. 

Edited October 28, 2021 by MAR1979