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Official TMNT Speculation Thread
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Started by pubmonkey,

1,222 posts in this topic

rsouxlja7

rsouxlja7

Posted
Posted

Thinking about letting go of my 8.5 first print. Before doing so I was just curious what you guys think could happen to the price of that book within the next 5 years. I never thought it'd get to the price it's at today but here we are. I don't need the money but would roll it into stock investments if I did sell. 

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spracknetch23

spracknetch23

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It could keep rising. The property is still going strong. Will kids grow up and be nostalgic about "Rise of the TMNT"? I can't understand how, but maybe. 

I've thought about selling as well, just because I'm not comfortable holding such an expensive single item. But for me it's the culmination of years of collecting, and something I'd never get back. So it's a difficult decision. 

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Hulksdaddy1

Hulksdaddy1

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On 12/2/2021 at 9:26 AM, rsouxlja7 said:

Thinking about letting go of my 8.5 first print. Before doing so I was just curious what you guys think could happen to the price of that book within the next 5 years. I never thought it'd get to the price it's at today but here we are. I don't need the money but would roll it into stock investments if I did sell. 

Hold on to it. It still has a ways to go.

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oakman29

oakman29

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On 12/2/2021 at 6:26 AM, rsouxlja7 said:

Thinking about letting go of my 8.5 first print. Before doing so I was just curious what you guys think could happen to the price of that book within the next 5 years. I never thought it'd get to the price it's at today but here we are. I don't need the money but would roll it into stock investments if I did sell. 

I would hold onto it. 

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TMNT

TMNT

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Posted
On 12/2/2021 at 9:26 AM, rsouxlja7 said:

Thinking about letting go of my 8.5 first print. Before doing so I was just curious what you guys think could happen to the price of that book within the next 5 years. I never thought it'd get to the price it's at today but here we are. I don't need the money but would roll it into stock investments if I did sell. 

Nobody knows the future of course. But for what it's worth, the book has always gone up in value ever since 84. Not explosively so as everything has lately during covid, but its always gone up. 

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valiantman

valiantman

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On 12/3/2021 at 10:37 AM, TMNT said:
On 12/2/2021 at 8:26 AM, rsouxlja7 said:

Thinking about letting go of my 8.5 first print. Before doing so I was just curious what you guys think could happen to the price of that book within the next 5 years. I never thought it'd get to the price it's at today but here we are. I don't need the money but would roll it into stock investments if I did sell. 

Nobody knows the future of course. But for what it's worth, the book has always gone up in value ever since 84. Not explosively so as everything has lately during covid, but its always gone up. 

TMNT #1 is the Copper Age equivalent of Amazing Fantasy #15, except that TMNT #1 has fewer copies in existence than AF #15.

TMNT #1 is 37 years old now, AF #15 turned 37 years old in 1999.

CGC 8.5 AF #15 sold for $19,200 when it was 40 years old, CGC TMNT #1 sold for $30,000 when it was 37 years old.

CGC 8.5 TMNT #1 is currently one of the top 500 grades on the CGC Census for the book (8.5 or higher).

The top 500 grades for Amazing Fantasy #15 are CGC 6.0 or higher.

CGC 6.0 Amazing Fantasy #15 most recently sold for $84,000.

Do you need the money now? 

If not, it's entirely possible that CGC 8.5 TMNT #1 today is similar to having a CGC 6.0 to CGC 8.5 Amazing Fantasy #15 twenty years ago.

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rsouxlja7

rsouxlja7

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Thanks everyone. I am going to hold onto it. As I try to move money out of my collectables and into other assets it has becoming increasingly difficult to determine which to part with and which to hold onto.

On 12/3/2021 at 11:16 AM, valiantman said:

TMNT #1 is the Copper Age equivalent of Amazing Fantasy #15, except that TMNT #1 has fewer copies in existence than AF #15.

TMNT #1 is 37 years old now, AF #15 turned 37 years old in 1999.

CGC 8.5 AF #15 sold for $19,200 when it was 40 years old, CGC TMNT #1 sold for $30,000 when it was 37 years old.

CGC 8.5 TMNT #1 is currently one of the top 500 grades on the CGC Census for the book (8.5 or higher).

The top 500 grades for Amazing Fantasy #15 are CGC 6.0 or higher.

CGC 6.0 Amazing Fantasy #15 most recently sold for $84,000.

Do you need the money now? 

If not, it's entirely possible that CGC 8.5 TMNT #1 today is similar to having a CGC 6.0 to CGC 8.5 Amazing Fantasy #15 twenty years ago.

This is really good perspective that I hadn't thought of. Thanks. 

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tvindy

tvindy

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Posted (edited)
On 12/3/2021 at 3:33 PM, rsouxlja7 said:

Thanks everyone. I am going to hold onto it. As I try to move money out of my collectables and into other assets it has becoming increasingly difficult to determine which to part with and which to hold onto.

This is really good perspective that I hadn't thought of. Thanks. 

Since you said that if you sold it, you would put the money into stocks, another thing to consider is that the performance of the S&P 500 since 2002 (the year AF #15 sold for $19,200) has pretty much kept up with AF #15. AF #15 has more than quadrupled, and so has the S&P 500.

Edited by tvindy
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rsouxlja7

rsouxlja7

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On 12/3/2021 at 12:54 PM, tvindy said:

Since you said that if you sold it, you would put the money into stocks, another thing to consider is that the performance of the S&P 500 since 2002 (the year AF #15 sold for $19,200) has pretty much kept up with AF #15. AF #15 has more than quadrupled, and so has the S&P 500.

Right, I'd be putting the money into the S&P if I sold it. 

Just to give more information: over the next 5ish years I plan to sell all of my comics except for a few keepers but on the chopping block I have the following:

Movie speculation - FF5, X-Men 1, Hulk 181s, GSX1s

Runs I was collecting - ASM1 through ASM15

Stuff I bought with collections but just never sold - this would be where the TMNT1 falls along with DD1, Avengers 1 & 4, and some other stuff

I only want to sell a certain portion each year so now I am just trying to time the market on when and what to sell basically. 

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Subby1938

Subby1938

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Posted (edited)
On 12/3/2021 at 12:16 PM, valiantman said:

TMNT #1 is the Copper Age equivalent of Amazing Fantasy #15, except that TMNT #1 has fewer copies in existence than AF #15.

TMNT #1 is 37 years old now, AF #15 turned 37 years old in 1999.

CGC 8.5 AF #15 sold for $19,200 when it was 40 years old, CGC TMNT #1 sold for $30,000 when it was 37 years old.

CGC 8.5 TMNT #1 is currently one of the top 500 grades on the CGC Census for the book (8.5 or higher).

The top 500 grades for Amazing Fantasy #15 are CGC 6.0 or higher.

CGC 6.0 Amazing Fantasy #15 most recently sold for $84,000.

Do you need the money now? 

If not, it's entirely possible that CGC 8.5 TMNT #1 today is similar to having a CGC 6.0 to CGC 8.5 Amazing Fantasy #15 twenty years ago.

Except the part where Spiderman is the biggest character in comics and always will have staying power the turtle book two years ago in 9.0 was 5K. It went up abnormally as did many others we don’t know what the fallout is going to be just yet . It’s a cool book but I don’t see turtles popularity today as I did when I was kid in 80s and early 90s. That success is long gone . Is rarity dictating price? Not sure . It’s a cool book I just have hard time seeing you compare them to Spiderman who’s is the absolute top of the mountain when it comes to comics and always will be . 

Edited by Subby1938
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Gazoony

Gazoony

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On 12/3/2021 at 9:43 PM, Subby1938 said:

Except the part where Spiderman is the biggest character in comics and always will have staying power the turtle book two years ago in 9.0 was 5K. It went up abnormally as did many others we don’t know what the fallout is going to be just yet . It’s a cool book but I don’t see turtles popularity today as I did when I was kid in 80s and early 90s. That success is long gone . Is rarity dictating price? Not sure . It’s a cool book I just have hard time seeing you compare them to Spiderman who’s is the absolute top of the mountain when it comes to comics and always will be . 

I think it's a pretty fair comparison, considering where they are in their life cycle. Do I think TMNT #1 will get to AF 15 prices? Probably not but it's still the biggest Copper Age book out there, with a small print run and many collectors (like myself) that will never sell their copies. I think the demand will always be there.

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Ryan.

Ryan.

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I won't pretend that the Turtles are anywhere near as popular as Spider-Man but these boards tend to overemphasize the cultural weight of movies. The TMNT merchandise machine is humming along as strong as ever, particularly in the collectible action figure hobby, which is huge but often overlooked by comics collectors. TMNT might be THE number one IP for action figure collectors. 

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valiantman

valiantman

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Posted
On 12/3/2021 at 9:43 PM, Subby1938 said:
On 12/3/2021 at 11:16 AM, valiantman said:

TMNT #1 is the Copper Age equivalent of Amazing Fantasy #15, except that TMNT #1 has fewer copies in existence than AF #15.

TMNT #1 is 37 years old now, AF #15 turned 37 years old in 1999.

CGC 8.5 AF #15 sold for $19,200 when it was 40 years old, CGC TMNT #1 sold for $30,000 when it was 37 years old.

CGC 8.5 TMNT #1 is currently one of the top 500 grades on the CGC Census for the book (8.5 or higher).

The top 500 grades for Amazing Fantasy #15 are CGC 6.0 or higher.

CGC 6.0 Amazing Fantasy #15 most recently sold for $84,000.

Do you need the money now? 

If not, it's entirely possible that CGC 8.5 TMNT #1 today is similar to having a CGC 6.0 to CGC 8.5 Amazing Fantasy #15 twenty years ago.

Expand  

Except the part where Spiderman is the biggest character in comics and always will have staying power the turtle book two years ago in 9.0 was 5K. It went up abnormally as did many others we don’t know what the fallout is going to be just yet . It’s a cool book but I don’t see turtles popularity today as I did when I was kid in 80s and early 90s. That success is long gone . Is rarity dictating price? Not sure . It’s a cool book I just have hard time seeing you compare them to Spiderman who’s is the absolute top of the mountain when it comes to comics and always will be . 

You're the kind of guy who'd rather have an ounce of gold than a metric ton of silver, aren't you?  :kidaround:

Gold is way more popular than silver, has always been more popular than silver, and will always be more popular than silver.

So who cares how much you can get for the same price, right? :whistle:

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oakman29

oakman29

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On 12/3/2021 at 7:43 PM, Subby1938 said:

Except the part where Spiderman is the biggest character in comics and always will have staying power the turtle book two years ago in 9.0 was 5K. It went up abnormally as did many others we don’t know what the fallout is going to be just yet . It’s a cool book but I don’t see turtles popularity today as I did when I was kid in 80s and early 90s. That success is long gone . Is rarity dictating price? Not sure . It’s a cool book I just have hard time seeing you compare them to Spiderman who’s is the absolute top of the mountain when it comes to comics and always will be . 

You dont see Turtles popularity because you're not a kid. I have 2 young boys who watch the shows, and play with their TMNT toys every day. I didnt even push them to comics, they seem to not care much about mine.

Here son , here's a 250K comic book, meh.😴 He would rather play his playstation. 

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BigLeagueCHEW

BigLeagueCHEW

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Posted (edited)
On 12/3/2021 at 7:43 PM, Subby1938 said:

Except the part where Spiderman is the biggest character in comics and always will have staying power the turtle book two years ago in 9.0 was 5K. It went up abnormally as did many others we don’t know what the fallout is going to be just yet . It’s a cool book but I don’t see turtles popularity today as I did when I was kid in 80s and early 90s. That success is long gone . Is rarity dictating price? Not sure . It’s a cool book I just have hard time seeing you compare them to Spiderman who’s is the absolute top of the mountain when it comes to comics and always will be . 

Agree on the Spider-Man part as far as character wise. We watch one of the Spider-Man films at least once a week. Both my son's don't really care for the turtles. Even when we get Halloween costumes Spider-Man is what they usually go for. I even dress up as the ole wall crawler myself.

Pre 90s babies are into Turtles more as it was a part of their childhood. Which drives the current market. What will it be like as time goes on? Time will tell I guess.

Edited by BigLeagueCHEW
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BigLeagueCHEW

BigLeagueCHEW

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Posted
On 12/4/2021 at 3:52 AM, Ryan. said:

I won't pretend that the Turtles are anywhere near as popular as Spider-Man but these boards tend to overemphasize the cultural weight of movies. The TMNT merchandise machine is humming along as strong as ever, particularly in the collectible action figure hobby, which is huge but often overlooked by comics collectors. TMNT might be THE number one IP for action figure collectors. 

That's what it was for me, straight to the toy isle and buying all the turtles off the shelf to play with.

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