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My Bimonthly Review of the Values of My Collection
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108 posts in this topic

7 hours ago, Math Teacher said:

Justice League of America #1 CGC 4.0: $1,850 (Feb) to $1,499 (Feb): –19.0% decrease.

Depends on the grade for JLA#1.  A 5.5 so far this year went for $1,850 and $1,979 on 2/8,  $2400 on 4/6, and tonight for $2,350.   Over 27% increase from Feb to May so far.  Decent (spoilt, ain't we all by now?).  

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1 hour ago, Pantodude said:

Depends on the grade for JLA#1.  A 5.5 so far this year went for $1,850 and $1,979 on 2/8,  $2400 on 4/6, and tonight for $2,350.   Over 27% increase from Feb to May so far.  Decent (spoilt, ain't we all by now?).  

Fair enough. But as I stated, I only do analysis on books that I own.

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9 hours ago, Math Teacher said:

I hope you enjoyed this lengthy post. Yes, I do this for informational purposes, but I wish it would spark some discussion also.

OK. Interesting to see different outcomes Marvel v DC. As a maths guy, you would appreciate this:

image.png.d80eb1aa2ef9d2b18f81d86e5443c2ee.png

2-Tail : p-value = 0.0009

Relative Risk of going down of a DC book in @Math Teacher's collection = 11.25

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Thanks for writing this up! 

I think the big take away for me is, the big books just keep on rolling! It is a two month run, so if books like GSX1 have started to slow, it may not be reflected here. Still those increases over the last two months are significant. 

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10 hours ago, Albert Thurgood said:

OK. Interesting to see different outcomes Marvel v DC. As a maths guy, you would appreciate this:

image.png.d80eb1aa2ef9d2b18f81d86e5443c2ee.png

I have to admit that I am not surprised by this. DC keys are underappreciated and undervalued right now. If I was in the market ro purchase books, I would look for DC keys and Incredible Hulk #1.

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I am back to do my bimonthly report on the value of the CGC books in my collection.

According to GoCollect, the value of my collection increased by 10.5%, and according to GPAnalysis, my collection increased by 9.4%. However, I did buy a few big books during May - June, so it would be accurate to evaluate the books that I had in my collection at the end of April compared to the books that I had in my collection at the end of June (in other words, I removed all the books that I purchased during May - June). This led to an increase of 9.0%, according to GoCollect, and an increase of 7.9%, according to GPAnalysis.

According to GoCollect, here were the biggest gains from the end of April to the end of June:

Amazing Spider-Man #2 CGC 3.5 (60.0% increase).
Amazing Spider-Man #3 CGC 4.5 (118.6% increase).
Amazing Spider-Man #7 CGC 6.0 (48.1% increase).
Amazing Spider-Man #14 CGC 4.5 (93.9%% increase).
Amazing Spider-Man #15 CGC 5.5 (58.1% increase). ← Is this book ever going to stop going up?
Amazing Spider-Man #18 CGC 5.5 (61.5% increase).
Amazing Spider-Man #300 CGC 9.4 (65.2% increase).
Avengers #1 CGC 1.5 (51.9% increase). ← I can’t afford an FF #1, but this is a cheaper substitute.
Avengers #4 CGC 2.5 (62.2% increase).
The Black Knight #2 CGC 5.5 (45.9% increase).
The Brave and the Bold #29 CGC 4.0 (50.0% increase).
Fantastic Four #4 CGC 2.0 (46.9% increase).
Fantastic Four #6 CGC 3.5 (C-1) (118.6% increase). ← Second appearance of Sub-Mariner and Doom?
Incredible Hulk #181 CGC 8.5 (92.0% increase).← Is this book ever going to stop going up?
Showcase #37 CGC 5.5 (41.7% increase).
Strange Tales #89 CGC 3.0 (86.7% increase). ← Shang-Chi trailer?
Tales of Suspense #57 CGC 5.5 (116.0% increase).
X-Men #6 CGC 6.5 (63.2% increase). ← Sub-Mariner appearance?
X-Men #7 CGC 7.0 (42.1% increase).

According to GoCollect, here were the biggest losses from the end of April to the end of June:

Avengers #9 CGC 6.5 (–48.6% decrease).
Daredevil #1 CGC 6.0 (–48.8% decrease). ← This issue sold for $8,000 at end of April and sold for $4,100 at the end of June. Where was I when this $4,100 book was sold?
Showcase #20 CGC 4.0 (–28.0% decrease).
Tales to Astonish #57 CGC 7.5 (–22.9% decrease).

According to GPAnalysis, here were the biggest gains from the end of April to the end of June:

Amazing Spider-Man #10 CGC 5.5 (49.8% increase).
Amazing Spider-Man #20 CGC 7.0 (80.1% increase).
Amazing Spider-Man #50 CGC 7.5 autographed by Lee and Romita Sr. (102.6% increase).
Avengers #8 CGC 7.0 (92.2% increase).
The Black Knight #2 CGC 5.5 (45.9% increase).
Four Color #178 CGC 4.0 (50.9% increase).
Journey Into Mystery #103 CGC 5.0 (42.2% increase).
Showcase #56 CGC 8.5 (100.8% increase).
Tales to Astonish #59 CGC 6.5 (42.0% increase).
X-Men #8 CGC 7.0 (102.0% increase).

According to GPAnalysis, here were the biggest losses from the end of April to the end of June:

Avengers #15 CGC 6.5 (–27.2% decrease).
Batman #47 CGC 5.0 (–25.8% decrease).
The Brave and the Bold #1 CGC 3.5 (–28.6% decrease).
The Brave and the Bold #61 CGC 8.0 (–34.9% decrease).
Daredevil #1 CGC 6.0 (–28.3% decrease). ← I have trouble getting my head wrapped around this one.
Fantastic Four #12 CGC 4.0 (–25.9% decrease).
The Flash #123 CGC 4.5 (–24.2% decrease).
Justice League of America #22 CGC 8.0 (–52.3% decrease).
Metal Men #1 CGC 6.5 (–21.8% decrease).
Showcase #20 CGC 4.0 (–21.9% decrease).
Showcase #27 CGC 7.0 (–38.4% decrease).
Showcase #35 CGC 7.0 (–27.4% decrease).
Showcase #36 CGC 7.0 (–31.5% decrease).
Showcase #37 CGC 5.5 (–25.1% decrease).
Strange Tales Annual #2 CGC 7.0 (–25.1% decrease).
X-Men #9 CGC 6.0 (–21.2% decrease).
X-Men #12 CGC 6.5 (–29.2% decrease). ← Just like DD #1, I have trouble getting my head wrapped around this one.

I made a comment about a few books, but I don't feel that I have enough knowledge to try to explain these trends. Some of these increases/decreases are just inexplicable to me.

I hope you have enjoyed the information I have shared. I do this for my own curiosity and for my insurance company, but I am happy to share it with other board members.

I’m going to end my report with the following statement. All this information pertains to the books that are in MY personal collection ONLY. I’m not reporting information on other books or other grades.

Edited by Math Teacher
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28 minutes ago, Math Teacher said:


Daredevil #1 CGC 6.0 (–28.3% decrease). ← I have trouble getting my head wrapped around this one.

 

Why? It's a common as dirt book in that grade range, and it tripled/quadrupled in value in a period of months. I am not at all surprised it's correcting. I dumped an extra copy in 5.0 a few weeks ago because these rapid increases are not sustainable. X-Men 12 is in the same boat. So are plenty of others.

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2 minutes ago, october said:

Why? It's a common as dirt book in that grade range, and it tripled/quadrupled in value in a period of months. I am not at all surprised it's correcting. I dumped an extra copy in 5.0 a few weeks ago because these rapid increases are not sustainable. X-Men 12 is in the same boat. So are plenty of others.

Does your theory apply to IH #181? According to the CGC census, DD #1 has 5,143 graded issues, XM #12 has 2,576 graded issues, and IH #181 has14,473 graded issues. If DD #1 and XM #12 are as "common as dirt," would description would you use for IH #181?

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I just want to remind people that as their collections go up, you need to think about increasing your insurance.  I have my entire collection valued at $50,000 for insurance yet a fraction of it has sold for 100K. 

Many of our collections have doubled in value in the last year. Have you doubled your insurance?

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21 minutes ago, october said:

Why? It's a common as dirt book in that grade range, and it tripled/quadrupled in value in a period of months. I am not at all surprised it's correcting. I dumped an extra copy in 5.0 a few weeks ago because these rapid increases are not sustainable. X-Men 12 is in the same boat. So are plenty of others.

When someone makes a claim, the first thought that comes to mind is to determine its veracity through research.

I looked at GPA and issues of DD #1 that had a sale in March or April, 2021, and a sale in May or June, 2021. I did my last update at the end of April.

Here's what I found:

CGC 8.0: $22,200 on 03/14, $18,000 on 06/18, a decrease of –18.9%.
CGC 7.5: $19,500 on 04/30, $12,600 on 06/27, a decrease of –35.4%.
CGC 7.0: $16,000 on 04/15, $16,155 on 06/23, an increase of 1.0%.
CGC 5.5: $5,895 on 04/24, $6,755 on 06/23, an increase of 14.6%.
CGC 5.0: $6,385 on 04/25, $7,600 on 05/30, an increase of 19.0%.

CGC 4.5: $5,655 on 04/21, $4,375 on 06/23, a decrease of –22.6%.
CGC 4.0: $6,375 on 04/10, $5,600 on 06/07, a decrease of –12.2%.
CGC 3.0: $4,100 on 04/22, $4,200 on 06/27, an increase of 2.4%.
CGC 2.5: $2,500 on 04/21, $3,275 on 05/19, an increase of 31.0%.
CGC 2.0: $3,100 on 04/18, $3,000 on 06/29, a decrease of –3.2%.
CGC 1.5: $1,625 on 04/09, $2,400 on 06/06, an increase of 47.7%.
CGC 1.0: $2,464 on 04/05, $2,500 on 06/11, an increase of 1.5%.

On these twelve grades, the average was an increase of 2.1%. So, I still feel that a drop of –28.3% on a CGC 6.0 is abnormal.

Just for the sake of honesty, when I did my updates in February and April, the most recent sale of a DD #1 CGC 6.0 was in November, 2020. So I used a price per point method to determine the value of my DD #1 6.0. I looked for other grades that had sales in April, 2021, and I used these other grades to calculate a price per point. I averaged these PPPs, and I took the result and multiplied it by 6.0, the grade of my book. So, at the end of April, I valued my DD #1 6.0 at $11,159, which clearly was too high.

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1 hour ago, Math Teacher said:

Does your theory apply to IH #181? According to the CGC census, DD #1 has 5,143 graded issues, XM #12 has 2,576 graded issues, and IH #181 has14,473 graded issues. If DD #1 and XM #12 are as "common as dirt," would description would you use for IH #181?

Absolutely. Those are dropping in plenty of grades as well.

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18 minutes ago, october said:

Absolutely. Those are dropping in plenty of grades as well.

That's something I'm watching. How many of the books that have been on fire through the pandemic will decrease and by how much?

My sense (without data) is that things have largely cooled off, with some books remaining on fire and others either stabilizing or slightly decreasing. 

What we are yet to see is a market correction. 

 

 

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17 minutes ago, KCOComics said:

What we are yet to see is a market correction.

By comparison, sports cards have seen a significant correction basically throughout the market. Nothing of the sort seems to have happened here.

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2 hours ago, Math Teacher said:

I am back to do my bimonthly report on the value of the CGC books in my collection.

According to GoCollect, the value of my collection increased by 10.5%, and according to GPAnalysis, my collection increased by 9.4%. However, I did buy a few big books during May - June, so it would be accurate to evaluate the books that I had in my collection at the end of April compared to the books that I had in my collection at the end of June (in other words, I removed all the books that I purchased during May - June). This led to an increase of 9.0%, according to GoCollect, and an increase of 7.9%, according to GPAnalysis.

According to GoCollect, here were the biggest gains from the end of April to the end of June:

Amazing Spider-Man #2 CGC 3.5 (60.0% increase).
Amazing Spider-Man #3 CGC 4.5 (118.6% increase).
Amazing Spider-Man #7 CGC 6.0 (48.1% increase).
Amazing Spider-Man #14 CGC 4.5 (93.9%% increase).
Amazing Spider-Man #15 CGC 5.5 (58.1% increase). ← Is this book ever going to stop going up?
Amazing Spider-Man #18 CGC 5.5 (61.5% increase).
Amazing Spider-Man #300 CGC 9.4 (65.2% increase).
Avengers #1 CGC 1.5 (51.9% increase). ← I can’t afford an FF #1, but this is a cheaper substitute.
Avengers #4 CGC 2.5 (62.2% increase).
The Black Knight #2 CGC 5.5 (45.9% increase).
The Brave and the Bold #29 CGC 4.0 (50.0% increase).
Fantastic Four #4 CGC 2.0 (46.9% increase).
Fantastic Four #6 CGC 3.5 (C-1) (118.6% increase). ← Second appearance of Sub-Mariner and Doom?
Incredible Hulk #181 CGC 8.5 (92.0% increase).← Is this book ever going to stop going up?
Showcase #37 CGC 5.5 (41.7% increase).
Strange Tales #89 CGC 3.0 (86.7% increase). ← Shang-Chi trailer?
Tales of Suspense #57 CGC 5.5 (116.0% increase).
X-Men #6 CGC 6.5 (63.2% increase). ← Sub-Mariner appearance?
X-Men #7 CGC 7.0 (42.1% increase).

According to GoCollect, here were the biggest losses from the end of April to the end of June:

Avengers #9 CGC 6.5 (–48.6% decrease).
Daredevil #1 CGC 6.0 (–48.8% decrease). ← This issue sold for $8,000 at end of April and sold for $4,100 at the end of June. Where was I when this $4,100 book was sold?
Showcase #20 CGC 4.0 (–28.0% decrease).
Tales to Astonish #57 CGC 7.5 (–22.9% decrease).

According to GPAnalysis, here were the biggest gains from the end of April to the end of June:

Amazing Spider-Man #10 CGC 5.5 (49.8% increase).
Amazing Spider-Man #20 CGC 7.0 (80.1% increase).
Amazing Spider-Man #50 CGC 7.5 autographed by Lee and Romita Sr. (102.6% increase).
Avengers #8 CGC 7.0 (92.2% increase).
The Black Knight #2 CGC 5.5 (45.9% increase).
Four Color #178 CGC 4.0 (50.9% increase).
Journey Into Mystery #103 CGC 5.0 (42.2% increase).
Showcase #56 CGC 8.5 (100.8% increase).
Tales to Astonish #59 CGC 6.5 (42.0% increase).
X-Men #8 CGC 7.0 (102.0% increase).

According to GPAnalysis, here were the biggest losses from the end of April to the end of June:

Avengers #15 CGC 6.5 (–27.2% decrease).
Batman #47 CGC 5.0 (–25.8% decrease).
The Brave and the Bold #1 CGC 3.5 (–28.6% decrease).
The Brave and the Bold #61 CGC 8.0 (–34.9% decrease).
Daredevil #1 CGC 6.0 (–28.3% decrease). ← I have trouble getting my head wrapped around this one.
Fantastic Four #12 CGC 4.0 (–25.9% decrease).
The Flash #123 CGC 4.5 (–24.2% decrease).
Justice League of America #22 CGC 8.0 (–52.3% decrease).
Metal Men #1 CGC 6.5 (–21.8% decrease).
Showcase #20 CGC 4.0 (–21.9% decrease).
Showcase #27 CGC 7.0 (–38.4% decrease).
Showcase #35 CGC 7.0 (–27.4% decrease).
Showcase #36 CGC 7.0 (–31.5% decrease).
Showcase #37 CGC 5.5 (–25.1% decrease).
Strange Tales Annual #2 CGC 7.0 (–25.1% decrease).
X-Men #9 CGC 6.0 (–21.2% decrease).
X-Men #12 CGC 6.5 (–29.2% decrease). ← Just like DD #1, I have trouble getting my head wrapped around this one.

I made a comment about a few books, but I don't feel that I have enough knowledge to try to explain these trends. Some of these increases/decreases are just inexplicable to me.

I hope you have enjoyed the information I have shared. I do this for my own curiosity and for my insurance company, but I am happy to share it with other board members.

I’m going to end my report with the following statement. All this information pertains to the books that are in MY personal collection ONLY. I’m not reporting information on other books or other grades.

I wonder if the 181 92% increase is an anomaly? 

I thought that book was cooling off a bit.

If my 7.0 shot up another 92% it's probably time to sell lol.... That guys been with me for a long time, but you start to get into low grade Hulk 1 $$ at that price. 

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5 minutes ago, bpc3qh said:

By comparison, sports cards have seen a significant correction basically throughout the market. Nothing of the sort seems to have happened here.

I've heard this from other collectors. I don't keep an eye on sports cards, but I understand their run up started before comics and that correction could be telling. 

Just something to keep our eyes on. 

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25 minutes ago, KCOComics said:

I wonder if the 181 92% increase is an anomaly? 

I thought that book was cooling off a bit.

If my 7.0 shot up another 92% it's probably time to sell lol.... That guys been with me for a long time, but you start to get into low grade Hulk 1 $$ at that price. 

Hulk 181 in 8.5 did not almost double in value month over month compared to late April/May. I have no idea what gocollect is smoking, as there are no sales I am aware of to back that up. Prices hit ~11-12k in late April and through May,  but 3 of the last four sales (all in June) on GPA were under 10k. I sold one of my 8.5s recently for ~11k, which is about what I would have gotten anytime from April until now.

Edited by october
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1 hour ago, october said:

Absolutely. Those are dropping in plenty of grades as well.

AND Daredevil is not nearly as popular as Wolverine, I have seen a ton of hype on several platforms on DD1. Several sellers were pushing it as the next "big" key that has been undervalued or overlooked. IH181 does not need the same hype as DD1 does to get it rolling. 

 

I do think Sample Size for DD1 is important when building linear trends, that can quickly show what true demand is. I actually just cancelled my GPA membership due to the lack of data they provide. I understand the issue with Comiclink, but there has been huge gaps lately and CL has been leading sales for several copies. With that said, not having gpa currently, I imagine IH181 can hold sales (probably has) even with a high monthly sales sample size, DD1 can not as realized in your feedback on the 6.0. 

Edited by PKJ
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21 minutes ago, october said:

Hulk 181 in 8.5 did not almost double in value month over month compared to late April/May. I have no idea what gocollect is smoking, as there are no sales I am aware of to back that up. Prices hit ~11-12k in late April and through May,  but 3 of the last four sales (all in June) on GPA were under 10k. I sold one of my 8.5s recently for ~11k, which is about what I would have gotten anytime from April until now.

Yeah, I just looked up some eBay sales for a 7.0 (what I have). During the peak of this run up 7.0s were selling for $8500 give or take. 

More recent sales in June have it down in the $6500 - $7500 range with allot of variation.

I'm sure we will see other books hitting the breaks as we go. 

 

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2 hours ago, KCOComics said:

I wonder if the 181 92% increase is an anomaly? 

I thought that book was cooling off a bit.

If my 7.0 shot up another 92% it's probably time to sell lol.... That guys been with me for a long time, but you start to get into low grade Hulk 1 $$ at that price. 

Keep in mind that number only applies to IH 181 CGC 8.5. I have no doubt that there may be different trends in different grades.

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