My Bimonthly Review of the Values of My Collection 6 6

[Math Teacher]

1 hour ago, october said:

Hulk 181 in 8.5 did not almost double in value month over month compared to late April/May. I have no idea what gocollect is smoking, as there are no sales I am aware of to back that up. Prices hit ~11-12k in late April and through May,  but 3 of the last four sales (all in June) on GPA were under 10k. I sold one of my 8.5s recently for ~11k, which is about what I would have gotten anytime from April until now.

I would have to agree with you. According to GPA, IH #181 8.5 decreased by –11.1%.

[bpc3qh]

1 hour ago, piper said:

If prices correct, it will be time to purchase some more keys

That's what I'm doing with sports cards. If a similar price correction happens with comics i'm going on a spree.

[Aman619]

GoCollect price guide is resembling Overstreet more and more, well -- the a Bizarro Overstreet!  On so many HG keys, they are just as off from the market as Overstreet was -- only always way HIGHER in values.  I realize when books dont change hands often enough, and other key is going nuts, they feel the need to extrapolate /guess what they'd sell for now. But theres no guarantee of that. They should acknowledge prices that are NOT based on ACTUAL sales to differentiate from the prices derived by math from real sales history.   

[Chief1332]

Gocollect algorithm... tries to predict values as best they can.  Uses CGC and CBCS sales info?  Whereas GPA CGC reported sales only?  I like to use both sites, as well as eBay, and threads here on the boards.

[Aman619]

Yeah.  Unless a books sells really often, it’s still all guesswork. 

[Math Teacher]

It’s once again time for me to do my bimonthly report on the CGC comics in my collection. As to the actual value of my collection, GoCollect says my collection decreased by 2.6%, while GPA says my collection increased by 4.9%. However, based on the books that I had in my collection at the end of June that I still own at the end of August, GoCollect says my collection decreased by 6.6%, while GPA says my collection increased by 0.5%. Keep in mind that I sold a GSXM #1 and purchased a SC #4 during this time period.

I would like to take the time to explain my methodology of how I determine the value of my comics (this only applies to GPA). If a comic I have has a sale in either July, 2021, or August, 2021, that is the value I use. For example, I have X-Men #16 in CGC 6.0. The last sale of that book occurred in August, 2021, for a price of $230. So, I now value my X-Men #16 CGC 6.0 to have a value of $230.

Unfortunately, finding a sale in July or August is not possible, especially for books that aren't sold as often. For example, I own a copy of X-Men #15 CGC 6.5, and its last sale was in June, 2021, for a price of $362. So, I use a price per point of all books that were sold in July or August computation to determine its value.

GRADE                                  PRICE                                    PRICE PER POINT
8.0                                          $510                                       $63.75
7.5                                          $350                                       $46.67
5.5                                          $300                                       $54.55
4.5                                          $97                                         $21.56
3.5                                          $149                                       $42.57
2.5                                          $162                                       $64.80

As you can see, for X-Men #15, a CGC 8.0 and a CGC 2.5 have approximately the same price per point. Based on my experience, the price per point is high for the upper grades. However, the price per point decreases in the mid-grades, sometimes drastically so, as noted by comparing an 8.0 to a 4.5. But then, in the lower grades, the price per point once again increases. I find this information to be quite interesting, considering it is counterintuitive to believe that the price per point for a mid-grade book is lower than the price per point of a low grade book.

So, in total, there are 31.5 points for a total of $1,568, which gives an average price per point of $49.78. Since my book is a 6.5, I multiply $49.78 by 6.5 to obtain a value of $324.

It is even harder to this computation for books that are seldom sold. There was one book, and I’m sorry I don’t remember the name, that had only one sale in all of 2021. Even though I listed a value for this book, I am pretty sure that that value is not that accurate.

So, today, I am instead going to show some discrepancies between the values listed under GC and GPA. On average, the value of a book listed by GPA is 113% higher than the value of the corresponding book listed by GC. The largest discrepancy I found was for Avengers #8.  GC has a listed price of $1,550, while GPA has a listed price of $3,850, meaning that GPA’s price is 248% higher than GC’s price. In the other direction, the smallest discrepancy I found was for Flash #128. GC has a listed price of $400, while GPA has a listed price of $175, meaning the GPA’s price is 44% lower than GC’s price. Please note that I am not judging either site – I am only reporting on what I found.

I know that this is not how I usually do my report, but I decided to mix it up this time. Comments about this data are always appreciated. I would also like to hear if anyone has an alternative method of calculating the value of a book that has not sold recently. I am sure that there are other ways to do this, some better and some worse. If you were to share these methods with me, I believe it would help me to better determine the value of my GPA collections.

Thanks for reading. I now return you to your regularly scheduled program.

Edited August 29, 2021 by Math Teacher

[valiantman]

On 8/29/2021 at 1:12 PM, Math Teacher said:

Unfortunately, finding a sale in July or August is not possible, especially for books that aren't sold as often. For example, I own a copy of X-Men #15 CGC 6.5, and its last sale was in June, 2021, for a price of $362. So, I use a price per point of all books that were sold in July or August computation to determine its value.

GRADE                                  PRICE                                    PRICE PER POINT
8.0                                          $510                                       $63.75
7.5                                          $350                                       $46.67
5.5                                          $300                                       $54.55
4.5                                          $97                                         $21.56
3.5                                          $149                                       $42.57
2.5                                          $162                                       $64.80

As you can see, for X-Men #15, a CGC 8.0 and a CGC 2.5 have approximately the same price per point. Based on my experience, the price per point is high for the upper grades. However, the price per point decreases in the mid-grades, sometimes drastically so, as noted by comparing an 8.0 to a 4.5. But then, in the lower grades, the price per point once again increases. I find this information to be quite interesting, considering it is counterintuitive to believe that the price per point for a mid-grade book is lower than the price per point of a low grade book.

So, in total, there are 31.5 points for a total of $1,568, which gives an average price per point of $49.78. Since my book is a 6.5, I multiply $49.78 by 6.5 to obtain a value of $324.

I applaud the effort, however, if your book is a 6.5, you could have taken the 7.5 $350 and the 5.5 $300 and immediately come to a value of $325.

[Math Teacher]

For some reason, I skipped my October report on my collection. So, I will try to get back on track with my December report.

The value of my CGC issue collection increased by 0.9% from October, 2021, to December, 2021. However, if I remove my purchases from November/December, the value of my collection decreased by –0.6%. The only other time periods where my collection decreased were from August, 2019, to October, 2019 ( –2.1%, using GoCollect values) and June, 2021, to August, 2021( –7.4%, using GPA values). I can’t say anything about the 2019 decreases, but in 2021, I believe I sold some books to finance another purchase, but the purchase had not been completed at that time. The really good news is that since I started tracking the value of my collection in December, 2018 (23 total books at that time), the value of my collection has increased 645% (148 total books currently). I was fortunate to buy some big books during 2019 - 2020, before the price increases of last year.

Here are some notable price increases/decreases from October, 2021, to December, 2021:

AF #15: 13% increase, AMS #2: –18% decrease, AMS #3: –23% decrease, AMS #6: –31% decrease, AMS #7: –21% decrease, AMS #14: –14% decrease, AMS #20: 20% increase, AMS #361: –36% decrease, AMS Annual #1: 24% increase, Avengers #1: –20% decrease, Avengers #3: –30% decrease, Avengers #4: 30% increase, Avengers #6: –22% decrease, Avengers #8: –24% decrease, Avengers #9: 51% increase, Batman #47: 34% increase, BATB #34: 27% increase, DD #1: –15% decrease, DD #7: 43% increase, FF #1: –16% decrease, FF #3: -21% decrease, FF #4: –28% decrease, FF #48: –22% decrease, FF #49: –24% decrease, FF #50: –30% decrease, FF #52: 27% increase, Flash #105: 65% increase, Green Lantern #1: 41% increase, Metal Men #1: 122% increase, Sgt. Fury AHHC #1: –12% decrease, SC #4: –15% decrease, SC #17: 27% increase, SC #20: 33% increase, SC #55: 47% increase, ST #101: –22% decrease, ST #110: –10% decrease, TOS #39: 15% increase, TOS #55: –20% decrease, TTA #27: 40% increase, Wolverine #1 (Christopher Variant): –24% decrease, XM #1: 38% increase, XM #2: –18% decrease, XM #3: 20% increase, XM #4: –19% decrease, XM #9: 25% increase, XM #10: –30% decrease, and XM #12: –16% decrease.

Any increase or decrease in red involved a computation for the prior price, the current price, or both. I would suggest viewing those increases/decreases with a grain of salt. I used a combination of GPA prices, GoCollect prices (where possible), and Ebay prices (where possible).

I am not going to get into an explanation of how I arrived at these values, because I don’t like people continuing to tell me I’m wrong. You may use a different method of calculating values, which is your prerogative. I used my own method, and therefore, my calculations are NOT wrong; they may just be different from your calculations.

And here’s my last point, and I feel it’s quite important. My valuations only applied to the actual comics with an actual grade from my collection. I don’t want you to tell me that XM #1 didn’t increase 38%. My XM #1 is CGC 3.0, and it DID increase 38%, according to GPA. On October 24, 2021, XM #3 CGC 3.0 sold for $10,400; on December 25, 2021, the equivalent book sold for $14,832. I have no doubt there couldn’t have been variations that led to this increase. For example, the October book may have had Marvel chipping or cream pages, while the December book may have had no chipping or white pages. Please understand that this applies to a XM #1 CGC 3.0 ONLY; I am not commenting about the valuations of XM #1 CGC 4.5, because I don’t own an XM #1 CGC 4.5. I don’t intend to be rude, but, if you can’t understand this explanation, then PLEASE don’t post and tell me I’m wrong, because I am NOT wrong. You may have a different methodology than I do, which, again, is your choice. I used my method of choice, and therefore my calculations are NOT wrong; they may just be different from your calculations.

Thanks for reading. I appreciate comments, especially if you can discuss different trends that you have seen.

Edited January 1, 2022 by Math Teacher

[KCOComics]

 

Did you find the price increases were heavily weighted by the big keys? Meaning if you took the AF15 and Hulk 1 out you would have seen a far more substantial overall decrease? 

 

I feel like we've seen the market at large cool, while the big key books continue to set records. You could say, it ease a bit. 

[Math Teacher]

Well, the 13% increase in the value of AF #15 was offset, somewhat, by the decreases in ASM #2, #3, #6, and #14. FF #1, #3, FF #4, FF #48, FF #49, and FF #50 all decreased by double digit amounts, which surprised me. The decrease in SC #4 was offset somewhat by the increase of ToS #39 and TtA #27.

I am going to paste in the values of the spreadsheet I use, so you can see for yourself. Any cell that has been bolded indicates that is was a computed value. Any cell in red indicates that the given book is in my safe deposit box; as you can see, I may have to put in some new books and remove some previous book. If a book doesn't have an increase/decrease, it means that it was purchased between 11/01/2021 and 12/31/2021.

With some of these books, there seems to be no rhyme or reason for increase/decrease. FF #48, a hot book, decreased by 22%. Avengers #12, definitely not a hot book, increased by 35%. In regard to the Marvel/DC keys that I keep in my safe deposit box, seven increased in value while nine decreased in value.

This will be long, but I don't know how to format it better.

			OCT, 2021	DEC, 2021
TITLE	ISSUE	GRADE	GPA VALUE	GPA VALUE
Amazing Adventures	1	3.0	$434	$360	-17%
Amazing Fantasy	15	2.5	$33,000	$37,200	13%
Amazing Spider-Man	1	3.0	$16,000	$15,072	-6%
Amazing Spider-Man	2	3.5	$3,075	$2,530	-18%
Amazing Spider-Man	3	4.5	$5,040	$3,900	-23%
Amazing Spider-Man	4	3.5	$1,430	$1,320	-8%
Amazing Spider-Man	5	4.0	$1,550	$1,305	-16%
Amazing Spider-Man	6	5.5	$2,880	$1,991	-31%
Amazing Spider-Man	7	6.0	$1,020	$803	-21%
Amazing Spider-Man	8	6.5	$960	$1,068	11%
Amazing Spider-Man	9	5.5	$2,750	$2,600	-5%
Amazing Spider-Man	10	5.5	$576	$641	11%
Amazing Spider-Man	11	6.0	$850	$797	-6%
Amazing Spider-Man	13	4.0	$1,350	$1,365	1%
Amazing Spider-Man	14	4.5	$3,360	$2,901	-14%
Amazing Spider-Man	15	5.5	$2,400	$2,299	-4%
Amazing Spider-Man	17	6.5	$780	$820	5%
Amazing Spider-Man	18	5.5	$659	$550	-17%
Amazing Spider-Man	20	7.0	$1,584	$1,900	20%
Amazing Spider-Man	50	7.5	$4,368	$4,972	14%
Autographed by Stan Lee and John Romita
Amazing Spider-Man	101	6.5	$886	$800	-10%
Amazing Spider-Man	129	6.5	$2,150	$2,150	0%
Amazing Spider-Man	194	9.4	$937	$836	-11%
Amazing Spider-Man	300	9.4	$1,200	$1,325	10%
Amazing Spider-Man	361	9.4	$312	$200	-36%
Amazing Spider-Man Annual	1	3.0	$1,500	$1,854	24%
Atom	1	7.0	$403	$504	25%
Avengers	1	1.5	$2,500	$2,009	-20%
Avengers	2	6.0	$1,050	$1,025	-2%
Avengers	3	6.5	$1,150	$801	-30%
Avengers	4	2.5	$950	$1,234	30%
Avengers	5	6.5	$390	$500	28%
Avengers	6	6.0	$525	$408	-22%
Avengers	7	6.0	$373	$235	-37%
Avengers	8	7.0	$3,360	$2,550	-24%
Avengers	9	6.5	$533	$805	51%
Avengers	10	7.0	$639	$773	21%
Avengers	11	6.5	$552	$460	-17%
Avengers	12	7.0	$340	$460	35%
Avengers	13	6.0	$176	$107	-39%
Avengers	14	8.5	$223	$133	-40%
Avengers	15	6.5	$185	$170	-8%
Avengers	16	7.0	$300	$348	16%
Batman	47	5.0	$2,858	$3,842	34%
The Black Knight	1	4.5	$5,350	$4,752	-11%
The Black Knight	2	5.5	$660	$1,584	140%
The Black Knight	3	4.0	$695	$864	24%
The Black Knight	4	6.0	$508	$606	19%
The Black Knight	5	5.5	$1,246	$755	-39%
The Brave and the Bold	28	4.5	$4,939	$5,520	12%
The Brave and the Bold	29	4.0	$317	$392	24%
The Brave and the Bold	34	7.0	$962	$1,226	27%
The Brave and the Bold	57	7.0	$270	$285	6%
The Brave and the Bold	61	8.0	$244	$225	-8%
The Brave and the Bold	62	9.0	$184	$237	28%
Casper and Nightmare	11	9.8	$114	$114	0%
Daredevil	1	6.0	$8,260	$7,023	-15%
Daredevil	2	6.0	$780	$865	11%
Daredevil	4	6.0	$350	$444	27%
Daredevil	7	6.5	$660	$947	43%
Dead-Eye Western v2	4	8.0	$125	$125	0%
Fantastic Four	1	2.5	$21,600	$18,058	-16%
Fantastic Four	2	3.0	$2,447	$2,655	9%
Fantastic Four	3	4.0	$1,998	$1,572	-21%
Fantastic Four	4	2.0	$2,968	$2,150	-28%
Fantastic Four	5	2.5	$7,493	$7,710	3%
Fantastic Four	6	3.5		$1,648
Fantastic Four	7	7.0	$1,244	$701	-44%
Fantastic Four	8	6.5	$855	$822	-4%
Fantastic Four	9	6.5	$1,140	$797	-30%
Fantastic Four	10	7.0	$1,305	$1,345	3%
Fantastic Four	12	4.0	$1,415	$1,550	10%
Fantastic Four	48	6.5	$5,500	$4,300	-22%
Fantastic Four	49	6.5	$3,000	$2,280	-24%
Fantastic Four	50	6.5	$970	$676	-30%
Fantastic Four	52	6.5	$1,800	$2,280	27%
Fantastic Four Annual	6	4.5	$381	$300	-21%
The Flash	105	2.0	$786	$1,300	65%
The Flash	106	3.5	$758	$700	-8%
The Flash	113	7.5	$362	$413	14%
The Flash	117	4.5	$391	$338	-14%
The Flash	122	4.5	$102	$104	2%
The Flash	123	4.5	$865	$810	-6%
The Flash	128	5.0	$234	$150	-36%
The Flash	129	8.5		$300
The Flash	140	5.5	$227	$187	-18%
The Flash	142	8.5		$359
The Flash	152	8.0	$94	$100	6%
Four Color	178	4.0	$675	$590	-13%
Four Color	386	4.5		$456
Friendly Neighborhood Spider-Man	1	9.2	$35	$35	0%
From Beyond the Unknown	17	9.6	$144	$144	0%
Funny Frolics	3	8.0	$313	$313	0%
Green Lantern	1	4.0	$987	$1,390	41%
Hawkman	1	7.5	$313	$415	33%
Incredible Hulk	1	1.5	$12,240	$12,675	4%
Journey Into Mystery	83	3.0	$13,000	$11,943	-8%
Journey Into Mystery	103	5.0	$637	$480	-25%
Journey Into Mystery	109	5.0	$193	$218	13%
Journey Into Mystery	112	5.0	$410	$330	-20%
Journey Into Mystery	114	7.5		$350
Justice League of America	1	4.0	$1,346	$1,300	-3%
Justice League of America	13	7.5	$156	$155	-1%
Justice League of America	21	7.5	$674	$751	11%
Justice League of America	22	8.0	$275	$221	-20%
Metal Men	1	6.5	$191	$426	122%
Rawhide Kid	17	3.5	$642	$634	-1%
ROM	1	9.8	$455	$357	-22%
Sgt. Fury and His Howling Commandos	1	4.5	$2,100	$1,850	-12%
Sgt. Fury and His Howling Commandos	13	5.0	$181	$250	38%
Showcase	4	2.0	$12,343	$10,453	-15%
Showcase	6	2.5	$630	$629	0%
Showcase	8	2.5	$1,650	$1,597	-3%
Showcase	13	4.5		$659
Showcase	17	3.5	$1,023	$1,300	27%
Showcase	20	4.0	$301	$400	33%
Showcase	22	4.5	$5,520	$5,633	2%
Showcase	23	4.5	$471	$420	-11%
Showcase	27	7.0	$478	$331	-31%
Showcase	34	7.0	$1,052	$1,001	-5%
Showcase	35	7.0	$272	$266	-2%
Showcase	36	7.0	$250	$164	-34%
Showcase	37	5.5	$711	$747	5%
Showcase	55	8.0	$411	$621	51%
Showcase	56	8.5	$130	$191	47%
Strange Tales	89	3.0	$2,203	$1,785	-19%
Strange Tales	101	5.5	$705	$550	-22%
Strange Tales	110	3.0	$3,120	$2,800	-10%
Strange Tales	115	6.0	$546	$500	-8%
Strange Tales Annual	2	7.0	$819	$756	-8%
Tales of Suspense	39	4.5	$15,000	$17,240	15%
Tales of Suspense	50	5.5	$480	$550	15%
Tales of Suspense	52	4.0	$767	$720	-6%
Tales of Suspense	57	5.5	$1,500	$1,200	-20%
Tales to Astonish	27	3.5	$2,786	$3,911	40%
Tales to Astonish	35	4.0 (C-1)	$720	$600	-17%
Tales to Astonish	44	4.0		$1,099
Tales to Astonish	57	7.5	$409	$321	-22%
Tales to Astonish	59	6.5	$569	$387	-32%
Thor	337	9.6	$387	$372	-4%
Two-Gun Kid	60	5.0	$600	$613	2%
Wolverine	1	9.8	$550	$420	-24%
X-Men	1	3.0	$10,400	$14,382	38%
X-Men	2	6.0	$2,195	$1,800	-18%
X-Men	3	6.5	$1,305	$1,571	20%
X-Men	4	6.0	$4,200	$3,420	-19%
X-Men	5	6.0	$626	$893	43%
X-Men	6	6.5	$813	$778	-4%
X-Men	7	7.0	$810	$711	-12%
X-Men	8	7.0	$483	$436	-10%
X-Men	9	6.0	$790	$985	25%
X-Men	10	7.0	$900	$628	-30%
X-Men	11	6.5	$508	$676	33%
X-Men	12	6.5	$1,828	$1,540	-16%
X-Men	13	6.5	$400	$510	28%
X-Men	14	7.0	$1,246	$1,325	6%
X-Men	15	6.5	$317	$319	0%
X-Men	16	7.0	$350	$308	-12%

---

[piper]

I think this is way too basic an analysis. Since there’s not enough data points, I think you need to be willing to extrapolate with other nearby grades and take a longer view beyond a three month window.

If we were looking at IH181 or other “common” Bronze books, your method works better.

I appreciate you sharing all the same.

[lou_fine]

On 1/1/2022 at 5:07 PM, KCOComics said:

 

Did you find the price increases were heavily weighted by the big keys? Meaning if you took the AF15 and Hulk 1 out you would have seen a far more substantial overall decrease? 

I feel like we've seen the market at large cool, while the big key books continue to set records. You could say, it ease a bit. 

Yeah, looks pretty much like the stock market to a certain extent.  

If you take out overriding influence of the big boys, you've probably got pretty much a bear market in a lot of the other stocks, or possibly even in the books in this case here.  

Edited January 2, 2022 by lou_fine

[Adamster]

On 1/1/2021 at 11:55 PM, Math Teacher said:

Well, here I am with my bimonthly report on the value of my collection. This is a LONG article, so you may want to go get a snack before you start reading.

 

So, according to GoCollect, the value of my collection increased 3.1% from the end of October to the end of December. According to GPAnalysis, for the same time period, the value of my collection increased 6.8%. In general, GPAnalysis usually shows a larger increase than GoCollect.

 

December, 2018, to February, 2019: GoCollect 4.0%, GPAnalysis 5.6%
February, 2019, to April, 2019: GoCollect 22.7%, GPAnalysis 20.2%

April, 2019, to June, 2019: GoCollect 14.6%, GPAnalysis 16.0%

June, 2019, to August, 2019: GoCollect 17.2%, GPAnalysis 14.4%

August, 2019, to October, 2019: GoCollect 5.6%, GPAnalysis 0.0%

October, 2019, to December, 2019: GoCollect 8.2%, GPAnalysis 5.8%

December, 2019, to February, 2020: GoCollect 8.6%, GPAnalysis 12.6%
February, 2020, to April, 2020: GoCollect 4.2%, GPAnalysis 4.4%
April, 2020, to June, 2020: GoCollect 13.0%, GPAnalysis 10.6%

June, 2020, to August, 2020: GoCollect 5.1%, GPAnalysis 9.5%

August, 2020, to October, 2020: GoCollect 7.9%, GPAnalysis 8.8%

October, 2020, to December, 2020: GoCollect 3.1%, GPAnalysis 6.8%

 

Just so you know, I didn’t take the time to remove new books I had acquired over each two month period.

 

According to GoCollect, the following books showed a 15% (or higher) increase or decrease in value from October 31 to December 31:

 

Amazing Adventures #1 CGC 3.0: 16.1% increase

Avengers #3 CGC 6.5: 22.7% increase

Daredevil #7 CGC 6.5: 26.7% increase

Avengers #8 CGC 7.0: –27.1% decrease

Avengers #14 CGC 8.5: –16.7% decrease

Black Knight #1 CGC 4.5: –41.5% decrease

Brave and the Bold #62 CGC 9.0: 15.4% increase

Daredevil #7 CGC 6.5: 26.7% increase
Fantastic Four #1 CGC 2.5: –18.9% decrease

Fantastic Four #5 CGC 2.5: 51.7% increase
Fantastic Four #52 CGC 6.5: –16.0% decrease

Flash #123 CGC 4.5: 20.8% increase
Flash #137 CGC 8.0: 33.3% increase
Green Lantern #1 CGC 4.0: 23.3% increase
Journey Into Mystery #114 CGC 7.5: –17.9% decrease

Justice League of America #1 CGC 4.0: 20.8% increase

Rawhide Kid #17 CGC 3.5: –27.3% decrease

Showcase #22 CGC 4.5: 25.8% increase
Showcase #27 CGC 7.0: –17.1% decrease

X-Men #1 CGC 3.0: 19.8% increase
X-Men #3 CGC 6.5: 45.8% increase

 

According to GPAnalysis, the following books showed a 15% (or higher) increase or decrease in value from October 31 to December 31:

 

Amazing Spider-Man #4 CGC 3.5: 22.4% increase
Amazing Spider-Man #5 CGC 4.0: 28.6% increase
Amazing Spider-Man #6 CGC 5.5: 16.3% increase

Amazing Spider-Man #9 CGC 5.5: 39.0% increase

Amazing Spider-Man #11 CGC 6.0: –21.3% decrease

Amazing Spider-Man #13 CGC 4.0: 23.1% increase
Amazing Spider-Man #101 CGC 6.5: 212.5% increase

This was due to an outlier of $200 price for this book on October 24, 2020

Avengers #1 CGC 1.5: –18.5% decrease
Avengers #4 CGC 2.5: 22.9% increase

Avengers #5 CGC 6.5: 19.5% increase

Avengers #6 CGC 6.0: 21.5% increase

Avengers #14 CGC 8.5: 58.6% increase
Avengers #16 CGC 7.0: 48.6% increase

Black Knight #1 CGC 4.5: –30.6% decrease

Brave and the Bold #29 CGC 4.0: 16.4% increase

Daredevil #7 CGC 6.5: –24.9% decrease

Fantastic Four #1 CGC 2.5: 20.1% increase

Fantastic Four #6 CGC 3.5 (C-1): 56.3% increase

Fantastic Four #13 CGC 7.5: 24.9% increase

Fantastic Four #52 CGC 6.5: 21.4% increase

Flash #123 CGC 4.5: 34.1% increase

Incredible Hulk #1 CGC 1.5: 59.0% increase

Incredible Hulk #181 CGC 8.5: 16.8% increase

Journey Into Mystery #85 CGC 4.5: 45.0% increase
Journey Into Mystery #114 CGC 7.5: –22.9% decrease

Justice League of America #1 CGC 4.0: 45.1% increase

Sgt. Fury and His Howling Commandos #1 CGC 4.5: 19.7% increase

Showcase #17 CGC 3.5: 34.6% increase
Strange Tales #101 CGC 6.0: 44.0% increase

Strange Tales #110 CGC 3.0: 24.7% increase
Tales of Suspense #50 CGC 5.5: 17.3% increase

Tales of Suspense #57 CGC 5.5: 20.0% increase
Tales to Astonish #57 CGC 7.5: –46.2% decrease

Wolverine #1 Chirstopher Variant CGC 9.8: –19.8% decrease
X-Men #14 CGC 7.0: –16.3% decrease

 

I think it is interesting when you compare these two companies together. Here are some examples:

 

Amazing Spider-Man #4 CGC 3.5: GC 0.0% increase, GPA 22.4% increase

Amazing Spider-Man #9 CGC 5.5: GC  5.0% increase, GPA 39.0% increase

Avengers #4 CGC 2.5: GC –3.6% decrease, GPA 22.9% increase

Avengers #6 CGC 6.0: GC 0.0% increase, GPA 21.5% increase

Avengers #14 CGC 8.5: GC –16.7% decrease, GPA 58.6% increase
Avengers #16 CGC 7.0: GC 11.1% increase, GPA 48.6% increase
Brave and the Bold #29 CGC 4.0: GC –7.4% decrease, GPA 16.4% increase

Daredevil #7 CGC 6.5: GC 26.7% increase, GPA – 24.9% decrease 

Fantastic Four #1 CGC 2.5: GC –18.9% decrease, GPA 20.1% increase

Fantastic Four #5 CGC 2.5: GC 51.7% increase, GPA 0.0% increase

Fantastic Four #6 CGC 3.5 (C-1): GC –0.8% decrease, GPA 56.3% increase

Fantastic Four #13 CGC 7.5: GC 0.0% increase, GPA 24.9% increase

Fantastic Four #52 CGC 6.5: GC –16.0% decrease, GPA 21.4% increase

Flash #137 CGC 8.0: GC 33.3% increase, GPA 1.7% increase

Incredible Hulk #1 CGC 1.5: GC 0.0% increase, GPA 59.0% increase

Journey Into Mystery #85 CGC 4.5: GC 4.8% increase, GPA 45.0% increase

Justice League of America #1 CGC 4.0: GC 20.8% increase, GPA 45.1% increase

Rawhide Kid #17 CGC 3.5: GC –27.3% decrease, GPA 0.0% increase
Showcase #17 CGC 3.5: GC 0.0% increase, GPA 34.6% increase
Showcase #22 CGC 4.5: GC 25.8% increase, GPA –3.8% increase

Strange Tales #101 CGC 6.0: GC 0.0% increase, GPA 44.0% increase

Tales to Astonish #57 CGC 7.5: GC –6.9% decrease, GPA –46.2% decrease
X-Men #3 CGC 6.5: GC 45.8% increase, GPA 1.8% increase
X-Men #14 CGC 7.0: GC 8.0% increase, GPA –16.3% decrease

 

If I was to run a statistical analysis of the results from GC and GPA, I would imagine that there would be little, if any, correlation between the values.

 

I also looked at the increases from December 31, 2019 to December 31, 2020. Listed below are any books that increased/decreased by 30% or more during that time frame:

 

Amazing Fantasy #15 CGC 0.5: 33.6% increase (GPA)

Amazing Spider-Man #4 CGC 3.5: 39.4% increase (GPA)

Amazing Spider-Man #5 CGC 4.0: 35.0% increase (GPA)

Amazing Spider-Man #6 CGC 5.5: 73.1% increase (GPA)

Amazing Spider-Man #9 CGC 5.5: 34.1% increase (GPA)

Amazing Spider-Man #101 CGC 6.5: 56.3% increase (GPA)

Amazing Spider-Man #129 CGC 6.5: 53.5% increase (GPA)

Amazing Spider-Man #194 CGC 9.4: 58.3% increase (GC)

Amazing Spider-Man #300 CGC 9.4: 83.3% increase (GC), 109.3% increase (GPA)

Amazing Spider-Man #361 CGC 9.4: 58.3% increase (GC), 47.9% increase (GPA)

Avengers #11 CGC 6.5: 35.0% increase (GC)

Brave and the Bold #1 CGC 3.5: 42.5% increase (GPA)

Daredevil #1 CGC 6.0: 72.5% increase (GPA)

Daredevil #7 CGC 6.5: 58.3% increase (GC), 55.2% increase (GPA)

Fantastic Four #1 CGC 2.5: 31.5% increase (GPA)

Fantastic Four #2 CGC 3.0: 63.3% increase (GPA)

Fantastic Four #3 CGC 4.0: 33.3% increase (GC)

Fantastic Four #5 CGC 2.5: 51.7% increase (GC), 60.0% increase (GPA)

Fantastic Four #6 CGC 3.5 (C-1): 100.5% increase (GPA)

Fantastic Four #52 CGC 6.5: 44.8% increase (GC), 65.4% increase (GPA)

Flash #123 CGC 4.5: 38.1% increase (GC), 52.5% increase (GPA)

Flash #137 CGC 8.0: 33.3% increase (GC)

Green Lantern #1 CGC 4.0: 40.6% increase (GPA)

Incredible Hulk #181 CGC 8.5: 35.6% increase (GPA)

Justice League of America #1 CGC 4.0: 45.0% increase (GC), 73.1% (GPA)

Justice League of America #13 CGC 7.5: –32.6% decrease (GPA)

Showcase #6 CGC 3.0 (C-1): –30.8% (GC)

Showcase #17 CGC 3.5: 34.6% (GPA)

Showcase #37 CGC 5.5: –49.1% decrease (GPA)

Tales to Astonish #59 CGC 6.5: 30.0% increase (GC)

Two-Gun Kid #60 CGC 5.0: 53.3% increase (GC)

X-Men #1 CGC 3.0: 51.8% increase (GPA)

X-Men #3 CGC 6.5: 52.2% increase (GC), 60.5% increase (GPA)

X-Men #4 CGC 6.0: 30.0% increase (GC), 97.9% increase (GPA)

X-Men #12 CGC 6.5: 62.5% increase (GC), 74.3% increase (GPA)

X-Men #14 CGC 7.0: 80.0% increase (GC), 53.8% increase (GPA)

 

I know some of you are thinking, “Why did he bother to do this?” As a former math teacher, I love working with numbers. This is a labor of love. I also hoped that it would generate some conversation. Perhaps you have seen some different trends than I have.

Just saw this. I have many of the same and it would be helpful if you could add $

[Math Teacher]

On 1/29/2022 at 6:25 PM, Adamster said:

Just saw this. I have many of the same and it would be helpful if you could add $

Just subscribe to GPA. Yes, it's not free, but I use it quite often. But, as many people have stated, it's just a snapshot of a certain time period. So sometimes you have to take the values posted with a grain of salt. Another criticism is that it doesn't include results from ComicLink, but that is ComicLink's choice, not GPA's.

[alexgross.com]

On 1/1/2022 at 10:18 PM, piper said:

I think this is way too basic an analysis. Since there’s not enough data points, I think you need to be willing to extrapolate with other nearby grades and take a longer view beyond a three month window.

If we were looking at IH181 or other “common” Bronze books, your method works better.

I appreciate you sharing all the same.

+1.  it's amazing @Math Teacher that you put in so much work in assessing the value of your collection, and sharing it with the community here.

as @piper said, when there is so little data, like on avengers 12, it can be misleading. generating fake sales on feebay through shilling is a well known practice, and results often in those sales prices appearing on gpa. also, sales there where the buyer does not complete payment often stay on gpa unless the seller reports it to them. and there are other reasons for sales prices that are outliers. 

imho a more useful way to review the overall value of certain books would be to take a larger grade range and do some averaging within a certain time period. of course, this would not tell us the last sale on every one of the specific graded books you own. but it would give a better overall picture of the market, particularly for non-keys that don't sell super often. if avengers 12 in grades from 5.0 through 9.0 overall shows an increase in sales results over a two or three month period, that seems worth noting more than if one person paid more than gpa for a 7.0. just my two cents. 

[Math Teacher]

On 1/30/2022 at 9:31 AM, alexgross.com said:

+1.  it's amazing @Math Teacher that you put in so much work in assessing the value of your collection, and sharing it with the community here.

as @piper said, when there is so little data, like on avengers 12, it can be misleading. generating fake sales on feebay through shilling is a well known practice, and results often in those sales prices appearing on gpa. also, sales there where the buyer does not complete payment often stay on gpa unless the seller reports it to them. and there are other reasons for sales prices that are outliers. 

imho a more useful way to review the overall value of certain books would be to take a larger grade range and do some averaging within a certain time period. of course, this would not tell us the last sale on every one of the specific graded books you own. but it would give a better overall picture of the market, particularly for non-keys that don't sell super often. if avengers 12 in grades from 5.0 through 9.0 overall shows an increase in sales results over a two or three month period, that seems worth noting more than if one person paid more than gpa for a 7.0. just my two cents. 

I agree that some of the results are skewed. I have thought about using statistical analysis, but often there is a small data set and there can be data points that are clearly outdated.

What I would <REALLY> like to do is to plot grades over a year's time, for example. I would like to think that if I examine enough issues that I could use that data to extrapolate what a reasonable multiplier would be if you upgrade from a 2.0 to a 5.0. Unfortunately, I think you would have different results depending on the particular issues that you are looking at. For example, I think keys would be different from GA from SA from BA to Modern.

For example, I bought a SC #4 in 2021. During 2021, only 14 SC #4s were sold, and four of them were a PLOD. As an example, the last time a SC #4 in CGC 5.5 was sold was in June, 2019. Trying to use that data point would definitely skew the results.

[Math Teacher]

I haven’t written one of these for a while, so, with a 3-day weekend, I thought I should put my time to good use.

The period from April 30th to June 30th was not a good time for my collection. My collection decreased by 10% during this time period. Most of this loss can be attributed to my Amazing Fantasy #15 CGC 2.5. At the end of April, the most recent sale, according to GPAnalysis, was $52,800; at the end of June, the most recent sale was $34,080. The loss of value of this one book accounted for 57.4% of my loss for the month.

But it wasn’t just AF #15 that went down. Here are some more decreases, with actual prices rather than calculated prices I sometimes have to use:

ASM #4 CGC 3.5 - 25% decrease
ASM #9 CGC 5.5 - 45% decrease
ASM #13 CGC 4.0 - 26% decrease
ASM #18 CGC 5.5 - 35% decrease
ASM #20 CGC 7.0 - 24% decrease
ASM #101 CGC 6.5 - 24% decrease
Avengers #8 CGC 7.0 - 25% decrease
Avengers #10 CBCS 7.0 - 62% decrease
DD #7 CGC 6.5 - 31% decrease
FF #52 CGC 6.5 - 32% decrease
ROM #1 CGC 9.8 - 28% decrease
ST #110 CGC 3.0 - 35% decrease
TOS #57 CGC 5.5 - 27% decrease
Wolverine Christopher Variant CGC 9.8 - 30% decrease
X-M #1 CGC 3.0 - 21% decrease
XM #7 CGC 7.0 - 33% decrease
XM #10 CGC 7.0 - 28% decrease
XM #11 CGC 6.5 - 22% decrease
XM #15 CGC 6.5 - 33% decrease

Now, here are some decreases using one real price and one calculated price:

ASM #2 CGC 3.5 - 37% decrease
ASM Annual #1 CGC 3.0 - 42% decrease
Avengers #15 CGC 6.5 - 39% decrease
DD #4 CGC 6.0 - 21% decrease
FF #8 CGC 6.5 - 29% decrease
FF #17 CGC 5.5 - 21% decrease
FF #60 CGC 9.4 - 43% decrease
IH #1 CGC 1.5 - 24% decrease
JIM #112 CGC 5.0 - 23% decrease
SC #4 CGC 2.0 - 27% decrease
SC #6 CGC 2.5 - 32% decrease
SC #55 CGC 8.0 - 63% decrease
ST #115 CGC 6.0 - 21% decrease
TOS #52 CGC 4.0 - 32% decrease

However, it was not all doom and gloom. Here are some increases, with actual prices rather than calculated prices I sometimes have to use:

ASM #11 CGC 6.0 - 19% increase
Avengers #4 CGC 6.0 - 28% increase
Avengers #5 CGC 6.5 - 45% increase
BATB #57 CGC 7.0 - 26% increase
FF #1 CGC 2.5 - 17% increase
FF #4 CGC 1.5 - 28% increase
FF #6 CGC 3.5 - 25% increase
FF #16 CGC 5.0 - 67% increase
FF #48 CGC 6.5 - 29% increase
GL #1 CGC 4.0 - 57% increase
JIM #109 CGC 5.0 - 65% increase
SC #22 CGC 4.5 - 14% increase
ST #101 CGC 5.5 - 20% increase
TOS #39 CGC 4.5 - 24% increase
XM #13 CGC 6.5 - 58% increase
XM #14 CGC 7.0 - 34% increase

Now, here are some increases using one real price and one calculated price:

Avengers #2 CGC 6.0 - 18% increase
Avengers #4 CGC 6.0 - 28% increase
Avengers #7 CGC 6.0 - 23% increase
Avengers #11 CGC 6.5 - 34% increase
Avengers #16 CGC 7.0 - 23% increase
Batman #47 CGC 5.0 - 22% increase
Black Knight #5 CGC 5.5 - 61% increase
BATB #29 CGC 4.0 - 42% increase
FF #9 CGC 6.5 - 57% increase
FF #39 CGC 8.5 - 61% increase
FF #40 CGC 8.5 - 114% increase
Flash #123 CGC 4.5 - 44% increase
Hawkman #1 CGC 7.5 - 75% increase
JIM #114 CGC 7.5 - 32% increase
SC #27 CGC 7.0 - 47% increase
ST #89 CGC 3.0 - 19% increase
WF #71 CGC 3.0 - 20% increase
XM #5 CGC 6.0 - 30% increase
XM #8 CGC 7.0 - 32% increase

Again, I must emphasize that the information listed above applies only to books that are in my collection. I can’t make a comment on ASM #1 CGC 6.5 (or any other such book), as I don’t have this book in my collection.

To me, it’s clear to me from the above data that some Marvel books are undergoing a price correction. Of the 33 books I listed with decreases, 30 of them were Marvel books. Amazing Spider-Man books were the most notable decreases, with eight books decreasing by 20% or more. X-Men had five books that decreased in value.

Of the 35 books I listed with increases, 25 of them were Marvel books. There was still a significant number of Marvel books that increased, but not as high as the number of Marvel books that decreased in value. Seven Avengers books increased and eight Fantastic Four books increased.

Some of these decreases can be attributed to the fall after movie/TV show hype, such as ASM #4, ASM #9, ASM #13, ASM #101, ASM Annual #1, Avengers #8, ST #110, ST #115, and TOS #57. 

I am not going to attempt to explain any other price increases/decreases, because all I would accomplish is to make myself look foolish. Believe me, I do enough of that by accident!

Please share your opinions. As I have said repeatedly, I go through this endeavor because I want to be able to have an idea of what my collection is worth for my insurance company, and also because I like working with numbers. But I also do this to generate commentary; I would like to know if you are seeing the same trends or different trends with books with different grades than mine.

I know that I am being redundant, but I must emphasize this again: The information listed above applies only to books that are in my collection.

Edited July 3, 2022 by Math Teacher

[fast eddie]

I love the data you offer here,,,, I am in the beginning stages of inventorying my collection for insurance and just plain knowing what books I have! Hah! I am getting my wife to put them in a spread sheet for me as I am quite hopeless with a computer compared to her,,,,,,,, I'm a farmer,,,she's in IT,,,,,,,, I have a question for you all,,,,,,, Is a subscription to GPA an inevitable outcome if I am to accurately track the value of my collection? I had a subscription some years ago,,,but I just didn't use it,,,,,,,, after all this counting and cataloging,,,, It seems appropriate. Thank you in advance for your advice!

[Math Teacher]

On 7/3/2022 at 9:13 PM, fast eddie said:

I love the data you offer here,,,, I am in the beginning stages of inventorying my collection for insurance and just plain knowing what books I have! Hah! I am getting my wife to put them in a spread sheet for me as I am quite hopeless with a computer compared to her,,,,,,,, I'm a farmer,,,she's in IT,,,,,,,, I have a question for you all,,,,,,, Is a subscription to GPA an inevitable outcome if I am to accurately track the value of my collection? I had a subscription some years ago,,,but I just didn't use it,,,,,,,, after all this counting and cataloging,,,, It seems appropriate. Thank you in advance for your advice!

I used to use GoCollect, until they went to subscription-based. I pay for enough subscriptions as it is.

I have used GPA for quite some time, so it's what I am used to. I have many books that seldom change hands (such as Showcase #4 or Rawhide Kid #17). I have had other people suggest using Ebay sold prices, which would be good if I had a lot of books like Incredible Hulk #181 or Amazing Spider-Man #300. However, this method doesn't work too well if you're trying to find the FMV of Black Knight #4 CGC 6.0. According to GPA, the last sale of this book in CGC 6.0 was in December, 2014.

[MattTheDuck]

On 7/3/2022 at 7:13 PM, fast eddie said:

I love the data you offer here,,,, I am in the beginning stages of inventorying my collection for insurance and just plain knowing what books I have! Hah! I am getting my wife to put them in a spread sheet for me as I am quite hopeless with a computer compared to her,,,,,,,, I'm a farmer,,,she's in IT,,,,,,,, I have a question for you all,,,,,,, Is a subscription to GPA an inevitable outcome if I am to accurately track the value of my collection? I had a subscription some years ago,,,but I just didn't use it,,,,,,,, after all this counting and cataloging,,,, It seems appropriate. Thank you in advance for your advice!

Like MT, I used GoCollect but they changed the offerings so I broke down and subscribed to GPA.  It's not a perfect solution as it doesn't capture all sales and only provides sales data for graded books.  If your collection is not graded (as mine is not - I have only about 50 slabs out of 4,500 books) GPA is even more imprecise.  MT uses it only for his graded books in his reports, and that data is probably as accurate as you're going to find, but as noted there will be books for which there is no recent data and he's developed a way to estimate.

I also keep a spreadsheet, and I use GPA to track changes in a variety of grades (for instance, for raw books I follow 9.8, 9.2, 8.5, 8.0 and 6.0) which gives me a sense of the range of costs, and usually includes at least one sale at one of these grades within the last year.  For books I don't yet own, but aspire to, I track everything 8.0 and above.  For one series (Planet Comics, a Golden Age title) I track every grade (some of which are just blank as they've never had a sale reported to GPA.  For many others, the last reported sale was 10 or 15 years ago).  

One of the funny things about this last series is that you'll see, for example, a book in 8.5 at $350 and a recent 3.0 sale at $1200.  This is how I would know, if I owned an 8.5, that my book was worth a lot more than $350, even if I wasn't also watching auction sites closely.  The other funny thing is when you own a book that's listed on GPA (for example, I have a Pedigree copy of a Planet Comics) it is listed and will always be listed at the price I paid.  But just watching sales of that book in the same grade only gives you a vague idea, as Pedigrees generally might sell for more than non-Pedigree books.

Nice that you have help to get this all organized!

 

Edited July 4, 2022 by MattTheDuck