The Great Collectibles Bubble: Waiting To Pop? 1 1

[Buzzetta]

1 minute ago, the blob said:

at the current levels it seems that $20K is a number that is going to get hit by a lot of flippers/collectors, particularly anyone selling 9.8 slabs regularly. i am on pace for $12K and I have barely done any work listing stuff ... I have listed a short box of hot raw books and sold maybe half of them. I didn't think the $600 reporting # had actually been passed yet, just proposed. I'd hope ebay and maybe amazon give a bit of pushback on that, though probably it is more on ebay's shoulders. Ebay likely realizes that a collectibles seller selling $10K of stuff is likely spending $5-10K on ebay themselves they might not without those sales, thus ebay gets fees in both directions. amazon not as much.

That $600 threshold goes toward the 2022 year as it goes into effect after 12/31/21.  I don't think that the common flippers are going to realize what is going on until they get hit with their surprise after their 2023 returns come back with a love note.  Then they will curb their activities in 2023 and definitely by 2024. 

[Shrevvy]

12 minutes ago, the blob said:

at the current levels it seems that $20K is a number that is going to get hit by a lot of flippers/collectors, particularly anyone selling 9.8 slabs regularly. i am on pace for $12K and I have barely done any work listing stuff ... I have listed a short box of hot raw books and sold maybe half of them. I didn't think the $600 reporting # had actually been passed yet, just proposed. I'd hope ebay and maybe amazon give a bit of pushback on that, though probably it is more on ebay's shoulders. Ebay likely realizes that a collectibles seller selling $10K of stuff is likely spending $5-10K on ebay themselves they might not without those sales, thus ebay gets fees in both directions. amazon not as much.

The average revenue for an Etsy seller was $2200 last year.

[Shrevvy]

13 minutes ago, 1Cool said:

I agree the current market is nothing like the early 90s in terms of the reason for the bubble but it sure feels like a bubble never the less.  If prices are doubling and tripling for no real reason other then people are throwing money around like it is worthless then I'll have to call bubble when I see it.  The early 90s bubble was caused by excessive production of books which led to a crash once E-Bay came in and showed how supply exceeded demand.  Now we have prices exceeding reason which will probably give us the same results as the early 90s.  But until then I'll just keep selling books as quickly as I can.

Because many are coming to the realization it is. The only asset class you do not want to own is cash.

[the blob]

5 minutes ago, Buzzetta said:

That $600 threshold goes toward the 2022 year as it goes into effect after 12/31/21.  I don't think that the common flippers are going to realize what is going on until they get hit with their surprise after their 2023 returns come back with a love note.  Then they will curb their activities in 2023 and definitely by 2024. 

These are folks who did not pay taxes on this stuff before, why do you think they wouldn't have a problem claiming $9500 in costs on $10K in sales and paying taxes on $500 of profit? I understand the paperwork is going to scare some people, but I wonder how many casual sellers turned into $20K sellers last year alone?

[the blob]

2 minutes ago, Shrevvy said:

The average revenue for an Etsy seller was $2200 last year.

nobody sells anything on etsy unless they already have clientelle

[Shrevvy]

37 minutes ago, ThothAmon said:

Love this. For me it was schilling 75 odd newspapers a day with quadruple  that on Sundays through snow or rain in the late 70’s so I could afford to buy my pull list which included 5/3 each of X-men and Asm at the time. I was obviously ahead of my time because then everyone thought of me as a comic book nerd. 

I very much want to set up at local shows just for the nostalgia. I love a hot market. Very exciting. I've pulled out several of my old trades to re-read classic story lines. And, I am buying some of the same stuff I was buying in the 1980s. The excitement has brought me back to enjoying the hobby on a couple different levels.

[grebal]

What else you gonna buy with your Reichsmarks, bitcoin?

[D84]

I used to think it was unsustainable, but who knows anymore. Price increases have defied logic for a while now.

[valiantman]

1 hour ago, Buzzetta said:

GA books and higher tier 1st appearances such as X-Men 1 and AF15 may experience a market correction but I do not see them suffering the decline that the moderns and the variants will.  AF15 seems more for the long term collector while the Virgin Cover Gold Foil Variant of the Third Printing of Venom 284 are the books that are going to be left in the dust more often than not. 

A little louder for the people in the back.

[shadroch]

We might be going to hell in a bucket, but at least I'm enjoying the ride. Sold two JIMs yesterday for double the last GPA . One book I paid $115 for 9/19 and sold for $428 minus commission. The other cost $78 in July 2017 and sold for $360.

Enjoy the wave we are riding, there will be plenty of time to worry about the next one. Later.

[Randall Ries]

2 hours ago, 1Cool said:

I agree - this feels like the late 80s / early 90s which was followed by the collapse of the 90s.  My sales have essentially doubled over the last few months so I can't complain but there is no way I'm buying these key books at these prices - way too much risk of being stuck holding the bag.

Excellent point. I have spoken to many older collectors who remember that and they say this is looking a lot like the 1980's. And at that time, a false market was created by comic book companies centering around #1 issues. Post Crisis, all the books were starting the titles over again. Most of those went nowhere with a few notable exceptions.

I'm on the other side of the river with that. I have a signed Green Lantern Green Arrow #87 in 8.5. Looks a lot nice than that. I have seen some "Want To Buy" posts that ask for that book. I can't bring myself to sell it. I don't have a ton of money and replacing it would become an issue. No pun intended. Plus, I have the whole run - 76-89. Can't have a missing issue. So, I am being held hostage by circumstance. Traded off my Bat 227 in 9.4 and now I can't get near that grade for that book. I settle for 8.0 because it's a "must have". Maybe some speculator will offer me $10k for the 87. LOL!

[Randall Ries]

2 hours ago, Buzzetta said:

I have a suspicion that certain segments of the market will recede to a significant degree.  I am mostly talking about moderns, their variants, and lower tier 1st appearance chase books.  With the upcoming 2022 threshold of $600 on eBay and through PayPal, I suspect that you are going to see a decline in people speculating and flipping these books.  This will remove a significant portion of buyers and sellers as a decent amount of the market has been supported by such speculation.  I am figuring that this is felt around 2023 - 2024 to a noticeable degree.

GA books and higher tier 1st appearances such as X-Men 1 and AF15 may experience a market correction but I do not see them suffering the decline that the moderns and the variants will.  AF15 seems more for the long term collector while the Virgin Cover Gold Foil Variant of the Third Printing of Venom 284 are the books that are going to be left in the dust more often than not. 

Who knows... it's always a wait and see approach. 

True enough. Stan Lee said in a televised interview that fads come and go but GA books are the ones that appreciate slowly in value because they actually ARE hard to find. And that we should be proud to be temporary custodians of those. He made some good points during the interview.

Whenever people start using words like "flipping" and "speculating", I stand back. I don't have the income a lot of people seem to have and especially because of COVID. There are many many books I would love to OWN. Not "flip". I don't have the luxury of flipping keys and GA books.

[Savoyard23]

Whatever the driving forces for the 1990s crash, it definitely took back issue prices down.  I remember being delighted when I got back into collecting around 1999/2000 after 10 or so years away.  For instance, I finished my Claremont / Cockrum / Byrne X-Men run (except I never did get hold of a GSX1!) for....maybe not pennies on the dollar, but quarters on the dollar compared to what I was paying in the late 80s.

Will that happen again?  I'd be lying if I said I knew, but I can certainly hope.  There are still worlds I'd like to conquer, but I'm out at these prices.

[valiantman]

The question isn't whether it's time to sell... the question is what you'll do with the money?

If it's pay off debt, then sell.  If it's feed your family, then sell.  If it's just put the money back into the hobby, then which books would you buy at current prices if you sold other books you already own at current prices?

Because @Randall Ries is right, when you sell/trade something you enjoy owning --- you need to either meet a need or find something you enjoy more.  There's a chance you'll never own it again.

[Randall Ries]

2 minutes ago, valiantman said:

The question isn't whether it's time to sell... the question is what you'll do with the money?

If it's pay off debt, then sell.  If it's feed your family, then sell.  If it's just put the money back into the hobby, then which books would you buy at current prices if you sold other books you already own at current prices?

Because @Randall Ries is right, when you sell/trade something you enjoy owning --- you need to either meet a need or find something you enjoy more.  There's a chance you'll never own it again.

Well said. My wife and I spoke of that this morning. Well, I spoke. She half listened. She suggested selling some books to pay down debt and I wasn't even into THAT idea. Now, I'm out the book and the debt is still there albeit somewhat lower. If it were food or mortgage money then yes. What choice is there? But card debt and things like that? I'll sell blood and sperm first.

If I wanted a Bat 227 in 9.6 (I do) then how many books do I sell that I love just to get at that issue/grade? I have offered to trade an All-Star 7 7.0 for that book but no one bit. 5-10 years ago that offer would have been snapped up quickly. Goes to show that a significant book like the AS7 has to run harder to keep up with the nutsy prices of bronze age books now. Even though I believe the AS7 has the wind for the long haul. Which I don't thing most bronze, copper and moderns do. Not all but most.

[the blob]

"I'm thinking this may be a perfect time to move a ton of personal collection stuff that I have been sitting on a long time.

Not to "liquidate" mind you, but sell at nutty inflated prices."

Does the bulk of your collection consist of keys, semi-keys, and semi-keys of the moment? For the most part your run filler books have not done much.

[Randall Ries]

11 minutes ago, Savoyard23 said:

Whatever the driving forces for the 1990s crash, it definitely took back issue prices down.  I remember being delighted when I got back into collecting around 1999/2000 after 10 or so years away.  For instance, I finished my Claremont / Cockrum / Byrne X-Men run (except I never did get hold of a GSX1!) for....maybe not pennies on the dollar, but quarters on the dollar compared to what I was paying in the late 80s.

Will that happen again?  I'd be lying if I said I knew, but I can certainly hope.  There are still worlds I'd like to conquer, but I'm out at these prices.

I'm out as well. Gotta have money to make money. I never fell bass ackward into money. If I struck oil in my garden, all I would have would be dead tomatoes. Someone would come around and tell me why the oil wasn't mine on my own property. Plus, I love the books I collect. Hard to put a price tag on love. My parents were stingy as heck. All the books my classmates collected I could only look at and watch them trade back and forth. Never participate. That was the early-mid 1970's when comic book collecting hobby really hit the gas. Those and Wacky Packages. I still love those things. I can almost feel the sharp chewing gum cutting my mouth into ribbons even now.

[the blob]

15 minutes ago, valiantman said:

The question isn't whether it's time to sell... the question is what you'll do with the money?

If it's pay off debt, then sell.  If it's feed your family, then sell.  If it's just put the money back into the hobby, then which books would you buy at current prices if you sold other books you already own at current prices?

Because @Randall Ries is right, when you sell/trade something you enjoy owning --- you need to either meet a need or find something you enjoy more.  There's a chance you'll never own it again.

Most of what I am buying (and it has not been a ton of stuff) has not been impacted and these are somewhat semi keys. Just nothing that has gotten excited in this market. 

 

[Randall Ries]

1 hour ago, Shrevvy said:

I very much want to set up at local shows just for the nostalgia. I love a hot market. Very exciting. I've pulled out several of my old trades to re-read classic story lines. And, I am buying some of the same stuff I was buying in the 1980s. The excitement has brought me back to enjoying the hobby on a couple different levels.

I dug out some old books I had in my closet I was collecting and re-read a few. Re-read the Brave and the Bold one where the Atom was running Batman's body for him because he was "dead". That brought back a lot of memories. And even as cynical and cold the "speculators market" is, perhaps it will kindle a spark in someone for the actual hobby. Collecting something with intrinsic value as well as a monetary value.

[Rip]

Not a fan of the article. But is this is a bubble? I would say yes in certain segments.

I've certainly seen an increase in the micro-trend, (micro-cycle or whatever you want to call it), phenomena taking place.

Prices that would once takes months or years to move up and down, now see prices/ market trends move in days/weeks. Trends move and shift about as fast as You-Tubers can make videos. I've already seen this year, various collectible areas where big money is tossed in not knowing the established market or outcome. Then bail into the next hottest thing leaving plummeting prices behind. I suspect you'll see an increase of these mirco-cycles in comics as new collectors (card investors etc.) are less attached to their investments and more inclined to buy and sell quickly based on very recent performance and future speculation. I'm thinking many books once thought of as Blue-Chip Silver age books are just as subject to these quick cycles than some of the more modern stuff now. The money and scarcity is there to do it.

Now more than ever it pays to be up to date, sometimes even the hour of what's happening

Edited March 24, 2021 by Rip