Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 45 45

[alexgross.com]

On 11/22/2022 at 10:32 AM, mjoeyoung said:

How many of the people new to comic collecting are in the same boat and will also leave the hobby?  If a substantial portion of them sell and leave this will permanently affect value.

How many long term collectors have seen this market as the perfect time to sell their collections and leave the hobby?  I keep seeing threads about how many rare or key books are up for sale.  The current Comic Connect auction has five AF#15s for sale.

If the pool of people buying comics shrinks then it is inevitable that values will fall.

in economically dubious times, the fearful and needy sell. the wealthy buy. some wealthy sell keys to get into higher grade keys. 
 

newbies who bought blue chip keys in 2021 are a small per cent of this hobby. if you've been to cons you can see it in our collective middle and old age. cgc has been grading books for 22 years now. this hobby is built on a massive demand from geezers like me and many other boardies. it will continue to prosper for years to come. 

 the sky is not falling on comics. btw AF15 is almost always well represented in auctions. its never been a rare book. 

 

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 11/22/2022 at 3:48 PM, alexgross.com said:

in economically dubious times, the fearful and needy sell. the wealthy buy. some wealthy sell keys to get into higher grade keys. 
 

newbies who bought blue chip keys in 2021 are a small per cent of this hobby. if you've been to cons you can see it in our collective middle and old age. cgc has been grading books for 22 years now. this hobby is built on a massive demand from geezers like me and many other boardies. it will continue to prosper for years to come. 

 the sky is not falling on comics. btw AF15 is almost always well represented in auctions. its never been a rare book. 

 

The current market was created by specs, not collectors.  I don’t know too many collectors that were buying books for their collection in 2021(unless they were selling their under copies and upgrading)The glut of supply is in the hands of flippers right now.  If they decide to leave the market....supply will outstrip demand by a large margin. 

Edited November 22, 2022 by THE_BEYONDER

[Microchip]

On 11/23/2022 at 6:31 AM, THE_BEYONDER said:

I think the market will only hold up as long as the new specs continue to hold on.  The moment it becomes apparent that they’ll never get their money back...and these buyers decide to dump their “investments” at a loss....the market will plummet.   Buyers on EBay are still trying to hold on to the value of their book from a year ago.  How long can these sellers hold out?  If you bought an ASM 300 9.8 for 5k, are you going to sell at a 1k loss and move your money elsewhere?  Or are you going to hold on until it drops to 3k?

Who is an investor?

Who is a speculator?

Who is a collector?

Can you be a more than one of these?  I personally have books, that put me in all three categories, and I love the different aspects of all three.   They're different approaches to how I look at the books.   It's actually hard to look at books I've relegated to speculation, not falling into my collection sphere.  

[alexgross.com]

On 11/22/2022 at 1:19 PM, THE_BEYONDER said:

The current market was created by specs, not collectors.  I don’t know too many collectors that were buying books for their collection in 2021.  The glut of supply is in the hands of flippers right now.  If they decide to leave the market....supply will outstrip demand by a large margin. 

with all due respect, nonsense. 

speculators with crypto and other money certainly elevated values of books in 2021. that doesnt mean they 'created' this market. they created the enormous leap in prices. this market was here before them and will be here, and strong, when they leave. look at any gpa blue chip key graph from 2008-2020. it gradually goes up. 2021 will have been a blip. 

[Microchip]

On 11/23/2022 at 8:19 AM, THE_BEYONDER said:

The current market was created by specs, not collectors.  I don’t know too many collectors that were buying books for their collection in 2021.  The glut of supply is in the hands of flippers right now.  If they decide to leave the market....supply will outstrip demand by a large margin. 

There's definitely books that fall into the speculators bucket.   An obvious example would be ASM 300.   There's certainly collectors who cherish the book, but the volume of interest includes a ton of speculators rising on the back of the collectors, and collectors who want top copies.

[NewWorldOrder]

On 11/22/2022 at 1:19 PM, THE_BEYONDER said:

The current market was created by specs, not collectors.  I don’t know too many collectors that were buying books for their collection in 2021(unless they were selling their under copies and upgrading)The glut of supply is in the hands of flippers right now.  If they decide to leave the market....supply will outstrip demand by a large margin. 

I bought a SA Marvel Key for my collection 7/21.  Losing money.  

My life is over! 

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 11/22/2022 at 4:26 PM, Microchip said:

There's definitely books that fall into the speculators bucket.   An obvious example would be ASM 300.   There's certainly collectors who cherish the book, but the volume of interest includes a ton of speculators rising on the back of the collectors, and collectors who want top copies.

The thing is, demand for that book is somewhat of an illusion.  The collector who wants a top copy for his/her collection buys 1 copy and is done.  Specs buy multiple copies making it seem as though demand is high.   These people with multiple copies will have no one to sell to when they can no longer flip to other flippers.   The FOMO of last year is gone.  There’s no longer any panic to buy anything.

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 11/22/2022 at 4:28 PM, NewWorldOrder said:

I bought a SA Marvel Key for my collection 7/21.  Losing money.  

My life is over! 

Not everyone has the same luxury as you to be able to just....

 

[NewWorldOrder]

On 11/22/2022 at 1:37 PM, THE_BEYONDER said:

Not everyone has the same luxury as you to be able to just....

 

I wouldn't have bought it if I didnt have that luxury.  Since I always stayed within my means when I didnt have that luxury. 

[Dr. Balls]

On 11/22/2022 at 1:19 PM, NewWorldOrder said:

If you over paid and bought GA/SA/BA keys you just have to hold on to them for a while don't freak out.

I'll admit that I'm in this boat - however, I have a 10 year plan on my PCH books, so I'm holding for quite a while yet, and that's ok.

[Microchip]

On 11/23/2022 at 8:33 AM, THE_BEYONDER said:

The thing is, demand for that book is somewhat of an illusion.  The collector who wants a top copy for his/her collection buys 1 copy and is done.  Specs buy multiple copies making it seem as though demand is high.   These people with multiple copies will have no one to sell to when they can no longer flip to other flippers.   The FOMO of last year is gone.  There’s no longer any panic to buy anything.

Agreed.  That hype, and FOMO exists as a wave, and when it settles down.   The baseline interest is still there, the illusion isn't 100% of the value.  

(staying with the ASM300 example) Reaching $5k for a top copy, when there are 1,500+ copies out there, is not an easy feat.  The question is where the FOMO run's out, and where the price settles into.   

[Dr. Balls]

On 11/22/2022 at 2:23 PM, Microchip said:

Who is an investor?

Who is a speculator?

Who is a collector?

Can you be a more than one of these?  I personally have books, that put me in all three categories, and I love the different aspects of all three.   They're different approaches to how I look at the books.   It's actually hard to look at books I've relegated to speculation, not falling into my collection sphere.  

100% true. I am in all three categories.

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 11/22/2022 at 5:00 PM, Microchip said:

Agreed.  That hype, and FOMO exists as a wave, and when it settles down.   The baseline interest is still there, the illusion isn't 100% of the value.  

(staying with the ASM300 example) Reaching $5k for a top copy, when there are 1,500+ copies out there, is not an easy feat.  The question is where the FOMO run's out, and where the price settles into.   

It reached 9K at the peak of FOMO 

I think it’s around 4K now

4K still seems silly for a book so readily available.  I guess we’ll see how prices hold up into the new year.

[Dr. Balls]

If you bought ASM 300 at $9k, you'd probably better tattoo this on your forehead to remind yourself to...

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 11/22/2022 at 5:12 PM, Dr. Balls said:

If you bought ASM 300 at $9k, you'd probably better tattoo this on your forehead to remind yourself to...

Pretty sure all copies of ASM 300 will turn to dust before a 9.8 direct ever hits 9K again

[COI]

I find it funny that this discussion always revolves around top end sales; mid-higher grade AF 15s, ASM 1 in 9.6, Hulk 181s in 9.8, etc, as if these data points can tell you anything about the market as a whole, particularly its "health". Or that you can glean how many people are "real collectors" vs speculators. These sales, and the pool of buyers who regularly participate in high five to six figure sales, reflect a tiny proportion of the market. As such, most of the people discussing these sales aren't buying or bidding on these books and most of what we get are anecdotes about why they're buying or selling any particular book at any particular time.

Hundreds to thousands of books are trading hands every day at $50 to $5000; this is the lion's share of the market. They're not the headline grabbers, and I get that maybe these types of sales are too numerous for any one person to wrap their heads around, but these discussions are overly fixated on a couple of Hulk 181s in 9.8 or some low six figure key someone took a bath on in the last 8 months. There's a lot more going on and it's kind of ridiculous to focus on the whims of a very small pool of buyers at the deep end, as a basis for sweeping generalizations of the market as a whole. 

 

[Dr. Balls]

On 11/22/2022 at 3:14 PM, THE_BEYONDER said:

Pretty sure all copies of ASM 300 will turn to dust before a 9.8 direct ever hits 9K again

You're right. That book is probably going to be sitting in a nice temperature-controlled bunker in the Bahamas forever.

[Dr. Balls]

On 11/22/2022 at 3:28 PM, COI said:

I find it funny that this discussion always revolves around top end sales; mid-higher grade AF 15s, ASM 1 in 9.6, Hulk 181s in 9.8, etc, as if these data points can tell you anything about the market as a whole, particularly its "health". Or that you can glean how many people are "real collectors" vs speculators. These sales, and the pool of buyers who regularly participate in high five to six figure sales, reflect a tiny proportion of the market. As such, most of the people discussing these sales aren't buying or bidding on these books and most of what we get are anecdotes about why they're buying or selling any particular book at any particular time.

Hundreds to thousands of books are trading hands every day at $50 to $5000; this is the lion's share of the market. They're not the headline grabbers, and I get that maybe these types of sales are too numerous for any one person to wrap their heads around, but these discussions are overly fixated on a couple of Hulk 181s in 9.8 or some low six figure key someone took a bath on in the last 8 months. There's a lot more going on and it's kind of ridiculous to focus on the whims of a very small pool of buyers at the deep end, as a basis for sweeping generalizations of the market as a whole. 

 

The same discussions happen in the OA section - lots of speculation on the big ticket items, not a lot of commentary for pieces in the kiddie pool. I think that's just human nature to be fascinated about the huge numbers books and art are posting up.

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 11/22/2022 at 5:28 PM, COI said:

I find it funny that this discussion always revolves around top end sales; mid-higher grade AF 15s, ASM 1 in 9.6, Hulk 181s in 9.8, etc, as if these data points can tell you anything about the market as a whole, particularly its "health". Or that you can glean how many people are "real collectors" vs speculators. These sales, and the pool of buyers who regularly participate in high five to six figure sales, reflect a tiny proportion of the market. As such, most of the people discussing these sales aren't buying or bidding on these books and most of what we get are anecdotes about why they're buying or selling any particular book at any particular time.

Hundreds to thousands of books are trading hands every day at $50 to $5000; this is the lion's share of the market. They're not the headline grabbers, and I get that maybe these types of sales are too numerous for any one person to wrap their heads around, but these discussions are overly fixated on a couple of Hulk 181s in 9.8 or some low six figure key someone took a bath on in the last 8 months. There's a lot more going on and it's kind of ridiculous to focus on the whims of a very small pool of buyers at the deep end, as a basis for sweeping generalizations of the market as a whole. 

 

How’s the market doing on the whole? 

[NewWorldOrder]

On 11/22/2022 at 2:28 PM, COI said:

I find it funny that this discussion always revolves around top end sales; mid-higher grade AF 15s, ASM 1 in 9.6, Hulk 181s in 9.8, etc, as if these data points can tell you anything about the market as a whole, particularly its "health". Or that you can glean how many people are "real collectors" vs speculators. These sales, and the pool of buyers who regularly participate in high five to six figure sales, reflect a tiny proportion of the market. As such, most of the people discussing these sales aren't buying or bidding on these books and most of what we get are anecdotes about why they're buying or selling any particular book at any particular time.

Hundreds to thousands of books are trading hands every day at $50 to $5000; this is the lion's share of the market. They're not the headline grabbers, and I get that maybe these types of sales are too numerous for any one person to wrap their heads around, but these discussions are overly fixated on a couple of Hulk 181s in 9.8 or some low six figure key someone took a bath on in the last 8 months. There's a lot more going on and it's kind of ridiculous to focus on the whims of a very small pool of buyers at the deep end, as a basis for sweeping generalizations of the market as a whole. 

 

Edited November 22, 2022 by NewWorldOrder