Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 43 43

[Morganmi]

On 11/22/2022 at 5:39 PM, THE_BEYONDER said:

How’s the market doing on the whole? 

My anecdotal analysis from the one comic shop I work with is that yes big ticket sales are down but the awesome thing is regular and 2$ bin sales are way up and its a lot to do with the younger generation that's buying them just to read and not so much to collect.

I'm actually suddenly finding myself looking for cheap collections of stuff like archie and sad sack that would never sell before just to keep up with the demand of a couple of our young readers.

[drbanner]

On 11/22/2022 at 5:39 PM, THE_BEYONDER said:

How’s the market doing on the whole? 

At least for CGC books, the market is mostly down across the board, including books in the $50 to $5000 range. For example, according to GPA just about every "Last sale" price of Hulk 181 is below it's 12-month average (with the exception of sub-2.0 grades), mid-grade AF 15's are down, as is X-men 1 and all the other Marvel SA Keys, the 90-day average sales price for Spidey 129 is red in every grade, etc. To no one's surprise, it looks like books with low census numbers (either in total or in grade) are holding their value better than common Silver/Bronze/Copper/Modern. There are bargains to be had all around if you consider 2021/early 2022 prices fair. 

[COI]

On 11/22/2022 at 5:39 PM, THE_BEYONDER said:

How’s the market doing on the whole? 

Good question. I'm not capable of giving any really comprehensive answer because I'm out of touch.

The stuff I track and bid on seems to be chugging along just fine. Nothing is on fire, but I'm not seeing tons of bargains either. I've also been steering clear of spec fodder and am trying to buy books that most of the hype peddlers would call "dead"; you know, anything other than a first appearance.

My guess is that if you exclude speculator fodder, things mostly seem to be where they would've been if the mass psychosis of 2021 didn't happen. Which is good, IMO. Stable is better than 'hot' if you actually like to collect this junk.

[VintageComics]

On 11/22/2022 at 5:28 PM, COI said:

I find it funny that this discussion always revolves around top end sales; mid-higher grade AF 15s, ASM 1 in 9.6, Hulk 181s in 9.8, etc, as if these data points can tell you anything about the market as a whole, particularly its "health". Or that you can glean how many people are "real collectors" vs speculators. These sales, and the pool of buyers who regularly participate in high five to six figure sales, reflect a tiny proportion of the market. As such, most of the people discussing these sales aren't buying or bidding on these books and most of what we get are anecdotes about why they're buying or selling any particular book at any particular time.

Hundreds to thousands of books are trading hands every day at $50 to $5000; this is the lion's share of the market. They're not the headline grabbers, and I get that maybe these types of sales are too numerous for any one person to wrap their heads around, but these discussions are overly fixated on a couple of Hulk 181s in 9.8 or some low six figure key someone took a bath on in the last 8 months. There's a lot more going on and it's kind of ridiculous to focus on the whims of a very small pool of buyers at the deep end, as a basis for sweeping generalizations of the market as a whole. 

 

Correct. 

The top of the pyramid makes up a VERY small percentage of the overall market, and frankly much of the time the prices at the top of the pyramid are determined by the 100,000s of collectors who make up the main body of the pyramid, pushing up the top of the pyramid - although we also know a record sale can also pull up the lower end of the market. 

That volatility at the top is often driven by fear, or just a bidder not bidding on a particular item one night whereas the real collecting base adds support. 

But even though the higher grade market fluctuates the bottom won't fall out of it as long as there is a foundation of steady sales and collectors below it. If a book gets 'too cheap' it will get snatched up at some point. 

In fact, that there are deals being made in the background and some of the books that went 'cheap' in the past week are already being bought up at higher prices. But I can neither confirm nor deny anything.  

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 11/22/2022 at 6:39 PM, COI said:

I've also been steering clear of spec fodder and am trying to buy books that most of the hype peddlers would call "dead"; you know, anything other than a first appearance.

I’m curious if there’s something that can replicate the 1st appearance gold rush. Love it or hate it....the spec fueled explosion of values in 2021 was exciting to watch.  

I also enjoyed pulling books from my fodder every week & trading them for $50s, rather than selling them for toonies & loonies 

[The humble Watcher lurking]

Two other collectible markets that seem to be underperforming, as well.

 

 

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 11/22/2022 at 6:47 PM, VintageComics said:

But even though the higher grade market fluctuates the bottom won't fall out of it as long as there is a foundation of steady sales and collectors below it.

[Dr. Balls]

On 11/22/2022 at 4:50 PM, THE_BEYONDER said:

Love it or hate it....the spec fueled explosion of values in 2021 was exciting to watch.  

The previous speculation craze - driven by the huge success of Marvel movies that began around 2010/2011 - was also quite cool, as practically everyone caught a piece of the action, not just the blue chip collectors. 1st appearance values spiked with rumors of movie appearances. Man, it was great: buying a $10 book and flipping it for $30 a month later because a character was going to be in a movie still two years away was awesome fun. Drek chasing and box diving at your LCS could net you a book that everyone else had missed for a nice flipping opportunity. I've been collecting comics for 35 years, and nothing topped that era for the amount of fun I had doing research, buying, selling and upgrading.

It didn't make me a millionaire, but man - it was a bangin' time to be a comic collector.

Edited November 23, 2022 by Dr. Balls

[Hamlet]

On 11/22/2022 at 6:25 PM, Dr. Balls said:

The previous speculation craze - driven by the huge success of Marvel movies that began around 2010/2011 - was also quite cool, as practically everyone caught a piece of the action, not just the blue chip collectors. 1st appearance values spiked with rumors of movie appearances. Man, it was great: buying a $10 book and flipping it for $30 a month later because a character was going to be in a movie still two years away was awesome fun. Drek chasing and box diving at your LCS could net you a book that everyone else had missed for a nice flipping opportunity. I've been collecting comics for 35 years, and nothing topped that era for the amount of fun I had doing research, buying, selling and upgrading.

It didn't make me a millionaire, but man - it was a bangin' time to be a comic collector.

I wonder sometimes how many people will get severely financially damaged if prices have a large drop and don’t recover for a long time ( if ever).  How prepared are larger dealers with deep inventories for an event like that?  Have major dealers reduced their exposure to a downturn by thinning down their inventory?
 

I wonder how many people overextended themselves at last years prices and what they will do in an extended downturn?
 

I have so many books that I bought for X that now sell for 10+ times X that I wonder what happens to the people who bought at 10X if the price drops back down to 2X?
 

For me, it is just money I didn’t gain by selling.  I would never have considered buying at the higher prices because my comfort with my finances wouldn’t permit it.  I just wonder if the people buying at 10X just make enough money that they are comfortable with it, or if a lot of them might be in some financial trouble if things go badly?

[THE_BEYONDER]

On 11/22/2022 at 7:25 PM, Dr. Balls said:

The previous speculation craze - driven by the huge success of Marvel movies that began around 2010/2011 - was also quite cool, as practically everyone caught a piece of the action, not just the blue chip collectors. 1st appearance values spiked with rumors of movie appearances. Man, it was great: buying a $10 book and flipping it for $30 a month later because a character was going to be in a movie still two years away was awesome fun. Drek chasing and box diving at your LCS could net you a book that everyone else had missed for a nice flipping opportunity. I've been collecting comics for 35 years, and nothing topped that era for the amount of fun I had doing research, buying, selling and upgrading.

It didn't make me a millionaire, but man - it was a bangin' time to be a comic collector.

As I said....the 1st appearance explosion was exciting.   I didn’t spec on anything.   I simply went to my dollar boxes and plucked the flavours of the week.   I couldn’t believe when the Darkhawk & Toxic Avenger Marvel Age books popped.  Books that nobody wanted for a dollar becoming $100 books overnight.

[ADAMANTIUM]

On 11/22/2022 at 6:45 PM, Hamlet said:

I wonder sometimes how many people will get severely financially damaged if prices have a large drop and don’t recover for a long time ( if ever).  How prepared are larger dealers with deep inventories for an event like that?  Have major dealers reduced their exposure to a downturn by thinning down their inventory?
 

I wonder how many people overextended themselves at last years prices and what they will do in an extended downturn?
 

I have so many books that I bought for X that now sell for 10+ times X that I wonder what happens to the people who bought at 10X if the price drops back down to 2X?
 

For me, it is just money I didn’t gain by selling.  I would never have considered buying at the higher prices because my comfort with my finances wouldn’t permit it.  I just wonder if the people buying at 10X just make enough money that they are comfortable with it, or if a lot of them might be in some financial trouble if things go badly?

Ikr, I know several dealers that are buying warehouses and or moving and I'm hoping they do OK. I did my part in a way to bring them the bin books I've found to trade and in their favor I think. I'm just really hoping the market is still there, because they're putting in the work and effort!

[Microchip]

On 11/23/2022 at 10:52 AM, The humble Watcher lurking said:

Two other collectible markets that seem to be underperforming, as well.

 

 

Lots of comic talk mixed in folks 

He identifies key market factors ubiquitous to cards, and comics for long term investing.

 

[thehumantorch]

On 11/21/2022 at 4:35 PM, piper said:

That’s too bad because long term these are all fantastic purchases.

And if you really love comics why would you care about short term fluctuations in the value of those comics.  And if you're just speculating in comics because they're hot why would we care about short term fluctuations in the value of those comics.

[thehumantorch]

On 11/22/2022 at 3:28 PM, COI said:

I find it funny that this discussion always revolves around top end sales; mid-higher grade AF 15s, ASM 1 in 9.6, Hulk 181s in 9.8, etc, as if these data points can tell you anything about the market as a whole, particularly its "health". Or that you can glean how many people are "real collectors" vs speculators. These sales, and the pool of buyers who regularly participate in high five to six figure sales, reflect a tiny proportion of the market. As such, most of the people discussing these sales aren't buying or bidding on these books and most of what we get are anecdotes about why they're buying or selling any particular book at any particular time.

Hundreds to thousands of books are trading hands every day at $50 to $5000; this is the lion's share of the market. They're not the headline grabbers, and I get that maybe these types of sales are too numerous for any one person to wrap their heads around, but these discussions are overly fixated on a couple of Hulk 181s in 9.8 or some low six figure key someone took a bath on in the last 8 months. There's a lot more going on and it's kind of ridiculous to focus on the whims of a very small pool of buyers at the deep end, as a basis for sweeping generalizations of the market as a whole. 

 

Change that to 'thousands of books are trading hands every day at $1 to $5000.  There are a lot of collectors who love the hobby and want to buy quantity for as little as possible.  I'd imagine they also read every one.

[universal soldier]

Facinating to watch the current market and really wondering where to jump in. I'm 3 books removed from a complete run of ASM and took two giant steps back over the past two years due to stupid prices.  I know I'll never own uber high grade keys and am completelly okay with that. I focus on the VF - NM range and can still find some good deals. Trying to figure out where the "bottom" is and pull the trigger without breaking GPA records is been an act of patience. I've been able to work on other runs (FF, Hulk, Thor) with good success recently but I'm lucky where I already own most keys in the later silver, bronze  and copper.

[StillOnly25Cents]

 

discuss

 

MCS response posted here

 

Edited November 23, 2022 by StillOnly25Cents

[Tec-Tac-Toe]

On 11/22/2022 at 2:46 PM, ThothAmon said:

So you’re saying when the value of comics hit zero Chuck will own them all?

According to Chuck, he already owns them all.

[GermanFan]

Dont forget demographics. Most Collectors are Boomers and Gen Xers. Old or getting old. And I have a hunch not everyone will live to 90.

Moreover think about how many speculators thought BTC at 50 or 40k was an opportunity to "buy the dip".

And: The dollar based monetary system created in 1944 is done or nearly done.

We are all in a fog.

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 11/22/2022 at 11:04 PM, universal soldier said:

Facinating to watch the current market and really wondering where to jump in. I'm 3 books removed from a complete run of ASM and took two giant steps back over the past two years due to stupid prices.  I know I'll never own uber high grade keys and am completelly okay with that. I focus on the VF - NM range and can still find some good deals. Trying to figure out where the "bottom" is and pull the trigger without breaking GPA records is been an act of patience. I've been able to work on other runs (FF, Hulk, Thor) with good success recently but I'm lucky where I already own most keys in the later silver, bronze  and copper.

Which three are you still missing?

My advice is to decide on (realistic) prices you'd be comfortable with, and persistently look for opportunities to get your books at your prices.  It doesn't always work, and some people can be real jerks, but you'd be surprised how often an offer below ask results in a deal.  Depending on your target grades, you can get lucky in auctions too if your target book is flying a bit under most people's radar.

Also when buying in an overheated market I have tried to be at peace with the occasional overpay if (a) the book is genuinely hard to find -- time is money after all -- or (b) I feel good about the cost basis of my collection as a whole, since most of the books were bought before the crazy run-up.

Good luck in the hunt and don't give up when you're this close!

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 11/23/2022 at 2:59 AM, StillOnly25Cents said:

 

discuss

I bailed as soon as he (a) pointed to $75K as the previous sale without acknowledging the other sales in GPA that were over $100K and (b) started questioning how the book could be purchased on November 4 and make it in time for a November 17 auction.  Dude, that's not hard to imagine at all.