Are prices still climbing or have they eased up a bit??? 45 45

[dikran]

On 1/16/2023 at 8:18 PM, ADAMANTIUM said:

Subconsciously I've done this in the calculator and manually,  but I won't sell to cut losses. You mentioned the Kahn etc, I agree but I didn't go 9,8, I assume if movies and or shows get nostalgia in the future then I might again break even.

I mention Kahn because I too did mostly the modern losses, but not a 9.8 buy in. I figure a 9.4 $150 that is now $75-125, either before or after fees is about a. 50% loss. I do think those will be going up over the long run, and I've been patient with other books. It's the 2010's books that are the most loss, to a deficit level, but I almost feel those are a natural progression for those books or they did that for early 2000's during the 2010's

   bit complicated

 

I don’t know man… I feel like the “9.8 or bust” mentality on these modern books is gonna be completely engrained in the psyche of younger buyers and the premiums will continue to widen the gap between 9.8 and everything else… “How much is that in a PSA 10?” is pretty much already the norm in modern sports & trading cards…

[ADAMANTIUM]

On 1/16/2023 at 7:29 PM, dikran said:

I don’t know man… I feel like the “9.8 or bust” mentality on these modern books is gonna be completely engrained in the psyche of younger buyers and the premiums will continue to widen the gap between 9.8 and everything else… “How much is that in a PSA 10?” is pretty much already the norm in modern sports & trading cards…

I can't compare those hobbies, I find cheap Nolan Ryan rookies for a couple hundred and barely sold a 5.5 for what I paid in a difference of 6 years at $325. I think that 9.8 is cliche, not the definition of cliche but as a metaphor, as you'd have to define it as "most gains in 9.8?" And even that's a maybe. If 9.8's go up so will lesser grades, that's why I still consider myself a collector, cause I buy what I like, but I'd I break even is just fine compared to "most gains"

Do I think kahn is worth 9.8 for $1000 for a 5 year old character? Not il"yet in the big picture, some look at "quality" different. I'd rather say 9.4 break even in 5 years and as much profit as possible in 15 than say, a $1000 and now not worth as much and selling. 

 

[ADAMANTIUM]

And as far as engrained? You're going to tell me that 9.8 buyers that are now losing their shirt are going to stick with that?

They tried to convince me of that when I joined in 2014 2015, still been comfortable me ignoring that advice.

Think of a copper age book, in 20 years, it will be viewed as bronze is now. Or 10 years more fore modern, although there are less 90s books.

Y

And yet, if you're not expecting those characters to feel the same popularity as blade or Harley Quinn, then I don't think any room for value is possible. It's already basically quantity on moderns with the amount boosted characters for and by hype, I'd rather not lose my shirt on 9,8 for the extreme prices in the characters that go the way of the human fly.

9.4 human fly, although speckled on upon distribution, still nets you about half peak price in 9.4. Sure that's 50% of $100, but that's a lot better than the now moderns of $1000 at 50%.

I'm using examples of specific books for comparison extreme loosely, as I don't want to stretch to a different hobby. Ie sports, I'd rather apples to apples.

BUT in short no one knows for sure it's just where I'm coming from, with extremely limited progression knowledge in the hobby.

 

Edited January 17, 2023 by ADAMANTIUM

[DC#]

So this is a combo post - impact of grade quality, difference in Heritage vs Clink, market overall, and limits of GPA.    Two books that both just had sales with the two auction houses - one book within 24 hours of the other.  

 

First Spider-Man #129 in 9.8:    The Heritage result was 56% better.   The Clink was lowest sale since May 2021

- Comiclink on 1/16 with OW/W PQ and not a great wrap - $20k

- Heritage on 1/12 with W PQ and nice wrap - $31.2k

 

 

 

 

Incredible Hulk #1 5.5:    The Comiclink result was 51% better.   The Clink was a rebound from late 2022 but still below Summer 2022 results.    The kicker here is the Clink result will NOT show up in GPA and the Clink results will disappear after the auction concludes.   So when you look at GPA in the coming months there will be no record of this strong result.  

- Comiclink on 1/16 with W PQ and great centering - $47k

- Heritage on 1/15 with OW PQ and a bit of a miscut - $31.2k

 

 

 

[ADAMANTIUM]

Lol everything on market talk is grain of salt territory, as 9.8 or bust is still true of most.

Only I would argue that if a book in 9.8 is 1k then I'll make do with a 9.4

Where I was coming from, I've bought several books that used to be $500 in 9.6, for only $150 shipped, that's a sweet spot.

Sometimes that makes since in 9,4 too, just imo

Edited January 17, 2023 by ADAMANTIUM

[KCOComics]

On 1/16/2023 at 8:49 PM, DC# said:

So this is a combo post - impact of grade quality, difference in Heritage vs Clink, market overall, and limits of GPA.    Two books that both just had sales with the two auction houses - one book within 24 hours of the other.  

 

First Spider-Man #129 in 9.8:    The Heritage result was 56% better.   The Clink was lowest sale since May 2021

- Comiclink on 1/16 with OW/W PQ and not a great wrap - $20k

- Heritage on 1/12 with W PQ and nice wrap - $31.2k

 

 

 

 

Incredible Hulk #1 5.5:    The Comiclink result was 51% better.   The Clink was a rebound from late 2022 but still below Summer 2022 results.    The kicker here is the Clink result will NOT show up in GPA and the Clink results will disappear after the auction concludes.   So when you look at GPA in the coming months there will be no record of this strong result.  

- Comiclink on 1/16 with W PQ and great centering - $47k

- Heritage on 1/15 with OW PQ and a bit of a miscut - $31.2k

 

 

 

The Heritage Hulk 1 looks like a steal at $31k.  Really pretty copy. 

Still, tonights 5.5 at Clink checked all the boxes. Deep black cover, no chipping, white pages, great centering. I was watching that book carefully (not to bid on it.... Just to see where it landed). 

[Sweet Lou 14]

On 1/16/2023 at 7:03 PM, VintageComics said:

When I say "the problem" I meant the volatility created by hyper awareness through the digital world and the chasing, or even leveraging of information to beat or stay ahead of the market. 

Everyone feels pressured to get on the next trend before it starts or get out of the last trend before it ends and this is exaggerated badly in every market, not just comics.

The volatility is the problem that cuts and burns a lot of people but as we've heard over and over, if you're in it for the long term, you're generally winning more than you lose. 

This is a good point and I will just add one thing to it.

By the time you learn something on social media, if you really think you have some kind of leg up, you're delusional.  Having been tempted myself and needing to snap myself out of it, I'm amazed how easily people can trick themselves into thinking they're the only person reading that blog post or tweet, or even into believing that the information they're reading is truly "new" simply because it's news to them.

[mjoeyoung]

On 1/16/2023 at 12:10 PM, VintageComics said:

I'm not saying everything is rosy. There are some unforeseen or unprecedented times coming economically

Yep.  I think the latest poll of economists has the likelihood of recession at 70%.  There have been talks of a "richcession," where majority of the job losses are going to be high earning white collar types (Goldman Sachs, Meta for example).  Another survey of economists has the Federal Reserve pushing the fed funds rate to 5.5% and keeping it there until 2024 in order to kill inflation.  The stock market doesn't seem to believe that scenario, so if the Fed doesn't blink there will probably be a significant drop in the market.  All signs seem to be pointing to more trouble ahead in 2023.

[VintageComics]

On 1/16/2023 at 8:49 PM, DC# said:

So this is a combo post - impact of grade quality, difference in Heritage vs Clink, market overall, and limits of GPA.    Two books that both just had sales with the two auction houses - one book within 24 hours of the other.  

 

First Spider-Man #129 in 9.8:    The Heritage result was 56% better.   The Clink was lowest sale since May 2021

- Comiclink on 1/16 with OW/W PQ and not a great wrap - $20k

- Heritage on 1/12 with W PQ and nice wrap - $31.2k

 

 

 

 

Incredible Hulk #1 5.5:    The Comiclink result was 51% better.   The Clink was a rebound from late 2022 but still below Summer 2022 results.    The kicker here is the Clink result will NOT show up in GPA and the Clink results will disappear after the auction concludes.   So when you look at GPA in the coming months there will be no record of this strong result.  

- Comiclink on 1/16 with W PQ and great centering - $47k

- Heritage on 1/15 with OW PQ and a bit of a miscut - $31.2k

 

 

 

These are perfect examples of volatility I was talking about. 

White paged copies of ASM #129 CGC 9.8 with good centering should not fetch so much more than a poorly centered copy with inferior PQ, but it does. 

And the Hulk #1s were obviously not equal either. 

This sort of stuff happens because the markets illogically exaggerate the differences between the two books. 

Someone starts the trend that "white pages are better" and so the markets lean towards "white pages" and completely turn their backs on inferior copies. 

Whoever bought those cheaper copies got steals. 

[VintageComics]

On 1/16/2023 at 11:39 PM, mjoeyoung said:

Yep.  I think the latest poll of economists has the likelihood of recession at 70%.  There have been talks of a "richcession," where majority of the job losses are going to be high earning white collar types (Goldman Sachs, Meta for example).  Another survey of economists has the Federal Reserve pushing the fed funds rate to 5.5% and keeping it there until 2024 in order to kill inflation.  The stock market doesn't seem to believe that scenario, so if the Fed doesn't blink there will probably be a significant drop in the market.  All signs seem to be pointing to more trouble ahead in 2023.

Drinking too much the night before will give you a bigger hangover the next day than the person who was more moderate. 

[Moondog]

Some interesting sales from the past few days:

Heritage DD 1 8.0 OW/W $9900

ComicLink DD 1 8.0 C/OW $11300

2022 average $19336

Heritage FF 49 9.2 OW/W $9200

ComicLink FF 49 9.2 OW $8655

2022 average $15300

Edited January 17, 2023 by Moondog

[kimik]

On 1/16/2023 at 11:00 AM, ANDSOLDIT said:

An observation.. we've noticed that slab sales have slowed across most platforms over the past 6 months. With that said, we're achieving some of the best prices we've ever seen on raw books in our auctions. Almost every dealer I know that doesn't deal in nosebleed books has stated the same. Raw books are flying off the shelf and the slabs are sitting collecting dust. 

I have seen the opposite. Since November I have moved all the slabs I had listed on eBay that were sitting for several months, and some at all time GPA highs. Right now I have a timing issue with getting new submissions graded and not having enough new stock to list. 

My leftover summer/fall Clink submissions that are ending this week started off slowly tonight - the ASMs sold for below GPA there while I am getting GPA or higher on ASMs on eBay. 

Edited January 17, 2023 by kimik

[kimik]

On 1/16/2023 at 6:01 PM, dikran said:

Viewing comics as an investment can be a problem, I, like many others, kept buying books in 20-21, some spec books, some SA, some GA. Almost all the spec books are down 70-80% from where I bought in. If I was a true investor I’d dollar cost average and keep buying those books in multiples… but why?… is Kamala Khan or Ironheart or whoever gonna go to 1000$ again anytime soon? Doubtful. I gambled and lost, cut your losses and move on. I guess it’s like buying an option when it comes to movies and tv shows. Either you have the book already and sell or need it and buy, each side hoping for opposite results post transaction… On the other hand, SA and GA are also down but I feel less bad about those purchases, and have been DCAing my way to higher grade books, took some losses some profits, put the money towards slightly better books in hopes of chasing good money (higher grade books) with bad money (books that sell at a loss). So far so good. 

Comics can be fine as an investment if you learn from past patterns. As Roy posted, over the past 20-25 there has been a relatively consistent rhythm/cycle to the market (and it has been discussed several times in the past). Modern books are more speculative, but there are enough no brainers released each year as well to invest in that it is worthwhile (until you hit storage capacity  ). The key is to be patient enough to see overpays come into money, and to not chase the hot TV/movie tied properties during the peak (buy them early, or wait until the streaming or movie appearance passes). With GA/SA/BA, there are times to buy and then to sell based on rotations through companies and titles/genres that have held since I started collecting then part-time buying/selling in the late 1990s.

[lou_fine]

On 1/16/2023 at 5:49 PM, DC# said:

Incredible Hulk #1 5.5:    The Comiclink result was 51% better.   The Clink was a rebound from late 2022 but still below Summer 2022 results.    The kicker here is the Clink result will NOT show up in GPA and the Clink results will disappear after the auction concludes.   So when you look at GPA in the coming months there will be no record of this strong result.  

Similarly, there will also be no record of the pisss-poor result on the Spidey 129:

On 1/16/2023 at 5:49 PM, DC# said:

First Spider-Man #129 in 9.8:    The Heritage result was 56% better.   The Clink was lowest sale since May 2021

- Comiclink on 1/16 with OW/W PQ and not a great wrap - $20k

- Heritage on 1/12 with W PQ and nice wrap - $31.2k

 

Edited January 17, 2023 by lou_fine

[MAR1979]

On 1/16/2023 at 11:43 PM, VintageComics said:

These are perfect examples of volatility I was talking about. 

White paged copies of ASM #129 CGC 9.8 with good centering should not fetch so much more than a poorly centered copy with inferior PQ, but it does. 

And the Hulk #1s were obviously not equal either. 

This sort of stuff happens because the markets illogically exaggerate the differences between the two books. 

Someone starts the trend that "white pages are better" and so the markets lean towards "white pages" and completely turn their backs on inferior copies. 

Whoever bought those cheaper copies got steals. 

Paying more for books with perceived greater beauty seems to align with "Buy the book not the slab label". At least to a degree.

Inferior copies should only fetch non-premium prices. Of course in a bubble that may not apply but it still ain't wise.

Edited January 17, 2023 by MAR1979

[lizards2]

On 1/16/2023 at 10:43 PM, kimik said:

I have seen the opposite. Since November I have moved all the slabs I had listed on eBay that were sitting for several months, and some at all time GPA highs. Right now I have a timing issue with getting new submissions graded and not having enough new stock to list. 

My leftover summer/fall Clink submissions that are ending this week started off slowly tonight - the ASMs sold for below GPA there while I am getting GPA or higher on ASMs on eBay. 

In my experience, the first night auction closings are the best time as a buyer, and I was hoping that some of the holiday vacationers would be absent from the party.

But then, I don't buy ASM off Clink.

The poopy DCs I picked up last night all went 20-10% lower than last GPA, and they all had white pages. And of course, these lower than GPA Clink sales won't get recorded on GPA.

[kimik]

On 1/17/2023 at 6:47 AM, lizards2 said:

In my experience, the first night auction closings are the best time as a buyer, and I was hoping that some of the holiday vacationers would be absent from the party.

But then, I don't buy ASM off Clink.

The poopy DCs I picked up last night all went 20-10% lower than last GPA, and they all had white pages. And of course, these lower than GPA Clink sales won't get recorded on GPA.

ASMs are down. I was getting above GPA consistently on Clink until last fall. Nothing big/key, but plenty of common run books in 7.0 - 9.4 that would top GPA in grade. There was a shift last August/September where Clink became a below GPA destination that continues.

Now, I can't really complain as the ASMs were leftovers from collections/bulk purchases from dealers that I could not move in 2018 and 2019 at way lower prices and thanks to Covid are now worth slabbing. However, is it too much to ask for full GPA?  

I hope that my DCs (Batmans and Tecs, plus a Supes 233) ending this week do better than the DCs you won last night............

Edited January 17, 2023 by kimik

[lizards2]

On 1/17/2023 at 8:05 AM, kimik said:

 

I hope that my DCs (Batmans and Tecs, plus a Supes 233) ending this week do better than the DCs you won last night............

I hope they tank, as I have bids on several

[EastEnd1]

Sounds like Clink is the place to be buying these days...

[F For Fake]

I can say that 2023 has already been leaps and bounds better than the last few months of 2022, for me, as a seller of drek and junk. The fall was especially brutal, BINS didn't sell and auctions went for peanuts. Meanwhile, buying was great as far as CLink was concerned, for that little window, like August through November. Things seemed to pick up for them on their last big auction, but that was the fancy stuff, not the drek that I deal in.

Anyway, yeah, it's not a hard data point or anything, but anecdotally I can say sales have been very good for me so far these last couple of weeks, what little bit that I sell. We'll see how it lasts. I'm also bidding on a bunch of junk at CLink, we'll see if I win anything. Hoping things turn around for me, but not in any hurry for the prices to go up on the stuff I'm buying!