Post your Promise Collection wins! 16 16

[lou_fine]

On 9/19/2022 at 6:53 AM, tth2 said:

Heritage paid an average of $4600 per book for a collection that contained few high grade keys, and lots and lots of mid-run and late-run issues from 3rd and 4th tier titles?  Highly unlikely. 

Even more unlikely is that the owners (or their representatives) held out for such a high price, even if they were really knowledgeable about comics. 

Hey Tim;

I believe you are 110% absolutely correct with respect to this $23M figure for the Promise Collection because Heritage is certainly no fool when it comes to making money and this would have been pretty much a guaranteed money loser for them with this kind of figure here.  Especially although Heritage did indeed managed to fetched several million dollars from the first couple of Signature Auctions with these books, I simply can't see the rest of the collection with their 3rd and 4th tier unheard of titles having the "legs" to bring the total auction proceeds up to anywhere approaching $23M even though collectors were still bidding ridiculous crazy monies for them which Heritage could never ever have expected.  

I was rereading the Heritage ad in Al Bundy's private reading library  last night before I went to bed and it appears the basic gist of the ad is that while Heritage is best known for auctioning items from consignors, they also wanted people to know that since some collectors and heirs prefer to sell outright, Heritage does also purchase individual collections.  Probably just bad wording on their part or bad reading on my part here (more likely), but most likely they meant that they have spent $23M in total (i.e. not on just one individual collection) to date on purchasing collections from collectors and heirs over the years.   

So, probably the rest of my story might still have some ring of truth to it what little there is, just that the figure which Heritage paid is lower, but signficantly large enough to bring the total that Heritage had paid over the years to seem enticing enough to incorporate into a full one-page ad for them into the Overstreet Guide.  No idea what the number would have been for them to purchase the Promise Collection outright, but shall we say most definitely much more than the Church-like $500 based on 5,000 books at brand new full cover prices for what are really nothing but old used smelly books.    

Edited September 19, 2022 by lou_fine

[sfcityduck]

On 9/19/2022 at 6:53 AM, tth2 said:

Heritage paid an average of $4600 per book for a collection that contained few high grade keys, and lots and lots of mid-run and late-run issues from 3rd and 4th tier titles?  Highly unlikely. 

Even more unlikely is that the owners (or their representatives) held out for such a high price, even if they were really knowledgeable about comics. 

I agree.  There are too many advantages to Heritage if they just consign the books.  They CGC/Heritage Heritage not only makes money on the buyers and sellers premiums without risking any of their its own working capital, but they CGC also gets to make money off of the pressing, grading and encapsulation at rates charged to the selling family (not just an offsetting cost for them Heritage). 

 

[Mmehdy]

On 9/18/2022 at 12:33 AM, lou_fine said:

Hey Mitch;

Nothing less than the usual fantastic and top notch analytical work that we have come to expect from you.  Very well done!!!  

Only one thing that I noticed here in your chart.  Why only one column in there for the CGC grade or are you trying to imply that all of the grades for the 43 books in total remained unchanged from the first go round.  If this is the case, isn't this really rather surprising in this day and age of certification where most flippers are into playing the CPR game, that not even a single one of the resellers here dare even tried to play the game with these Promise books here.  

I really think that I need to go back to my dictionary and check up the meaning of words such as "independent", "unbiased", and "third party".  

Well first of all the collection is still being SOLD...check the weekly auctions and there are some excellent books out there....the body is not "cold" yet....these premature sales have no meaning until the collection is completely sold and a reasonable amount of time has passed, I would say at least -9-12 months after the end of the auction. Come on guys...give this collection a legit shot amount of time...you have jumped the gun and the conclusion. When I purchased the Mile High comics at over double guide...I could not resell them for anything close that....and look what happened...Promise books are great LONG TERM holds not a quick super flip......

Edited September 19, 2022 by Mmehdy

[Funnybooks]

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

On 9/19/2022 at 4:53 PM, Funnybooks said:

[Funnybooks]

On 9/19/2022 at 6:04 PM, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

[whomerjay]

On 9/19/2022 at 5:49 PM, Mmehdy said:

Well first of all the collection is still being SOLD...check the weekly auctions and there are some excellent books out there....the body is not "cold" yet....these premature sales have no meaning until the collection is completely sold and a reasonable amount of time has passed, I would say at least -9-12 months after the end of the auction. Come on guys...give this collection a legit shot amount of time...you have jumped the gun and the conclusion. When I purchased the Mile High comics at over double guide...I could not resell them for anything close that....and look what happened...Promise books are great LONG TERM holds not a quick super flip......

While I applaud the foresight of paying high on Church keys decades ago, buying a Promise book today at above market price is really not comparable. There is no way an overpay on a Promise book today is going to outperform the conventional long term investment (e.g. a Dow index fund) over the next 10, 20, 30+ years. 

The long term value of Promise books has already been (over) baked in to the auction prices.

I think there are numerous other comics to buy right now with greater long term ROI than almost all Promise books sold to date. That includes most Church books, a lot of Archie books, and (still) many GGA books.
 

Or if you really like Promise  books, buy some other asset with a good ROI over the next two years, then buy the dip on the Promise book.

[MrBedrock]

On 9/17/2022 at 6:18 PM, jimbo_7071 said:

On 9/17/2022 at 5:54 PM, MasterChief said:

The current ROI snapshot does not look promising for the collection.

While time will provide more data, and investment realization may change, the spreadsheet below paints an overall picture of the irrational exuberance that drove Promise prices higher than they fundamentally justified. (Source: Heritage Auctions. Data sorted by oldest to newest purchase date)

Expand  

I predict that some of these books will sell for even less the next time they go on the block—but we shall see.

Eventually the owners will be paying folks to take Promise books off their hands.

[ThothAmon]

Think I might have bought the cheapest Promise books yet. What a fantastic collection. 
 

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

On 9/19/2022 at 6:46 PM, MrBedrock said:

Eventually the owners will be paying folks to take Promise books off their hands.

Not you. IIRC you are one of the few to snag a Promise key at, what, 1.5 times Guide?

[Mmehdy]

On 9/19/2022 at 4:45 PM, whomerjay said:

While I applaud the foresight of paying high on Church keys decades ago, buying a Promise book today at above market price is really not comparable. There is no way an overpay on a Promise book today is going to outperform the conventional long term investment (e.g. a Dow index fund) over the next 10, 20, 30+ years. 

The long term value of Promise books has already been (over) baked in to the auction prices.

I think there are numerous other comics to buy right now with greater long term ROI than almost all Promise books sold to date. That includes most Church books, a lot of Archie books, and (still) many GGA books.
 

Or if you really like Promise  books, buy some other asset with a good ROI over the next two years, then buy the dip on the Promise book.

You are entitled to your opinion which has not played out and I am entitled to my opinion as a 50+ year collector/dealer also.....give "Promise" a chance...and time to play it out!!!!!!!

Edited September 20, 2022 by Mmehdy

[Cat-Man_America]

On 9/19/2022 at 6:46 PM, MrBedrock said:

Eventually the owners will be paying folks to take Promise books off their hands.

Edited September 20, 2022 by Cat-Man_America

[Mmehdy]

This weeks Ha auction has another 19 Promise books and some excellent books in top grade....contrary to popular belief the Promise collection is not finshed, washed up, bad investment ....etc...it is still  being sold!!!!

[path4play]

Bought several raws on HA, had this one slabbed myself.  Curiously out of 4 recent pedigrees I submitted - while all came back as pedigree - only one had the gold color label.  For example this one below is clearly Promise, yet no gold label?  One of 4 I could see as a mistake - 3 of 4 not sure what's going on?  No more gold labeling?

[RareHighGrade]

On 9/24/2022 at 11:02 AM, path4play said:

Bought several raws on HA, had this one slabbed myself.  Curiously out of 4 recent pedigrees I submitted - while all came back as pedigree - only one had the gold color label.  For example this one below is clearly Promise, yet no gold label?  One of 4 I could see as a mistake - 3 of 4 not sure what's going on?  No more gold labeling?

Strange, seems like an issue you should raise in the "Ask CGC" thread.

[jimbo_7071]

On 9/17/2022 at 6:54 PM, MasterChief said:

The current ROI snapshot does not look promising for the collection.

While time will provide more data, and investment realization may change, the spreadsheet below paints an overall picture of the irrational exuberance that drove Promise prices higher than they fundamentally justified. (Source: Heritage Auctions. Data sorted by oldest to newest purchase date)

Have you looked at books sold through other venues? I noticed this one on CLink a while back. It sold for $870 on Heritage back on 9/13/21. I would imagine that the seller was pleased to have not had to take too big of a hit.

Edited November 5, 2022 by jimbo_7071

[comicjack]

Not the books to make a quick flip better to own it for its history imho 

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

On 9/17/2022 at 5:54 PM, MasterChief said:

The current ROI snapshot does not look promising for the collection.

While time will provide more data, and investment realization may change, the spreadsheet below paints an overall picture of the irrational exuberance that drove Promise prices higher than they fundamentally justified. (Source: Heritage Auctions. Data sorted by oldest to newest purchase date)

Hey @MasterChief, I’ve taken a second look at the list, and I don’t see any Timely books. Does anyone have any examples of Timelies that have resold?

[szav]

On 11/5/2022 at 4:54 AM, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

Hey @MasterChief, I’ve taken a second look at the list, and I don’t see any Timely books. Does anyone have any examples of Timelies that have resold?

There's one in the current auction right now.  Sold for 24k originally.  I don't follow Timely titles too closely but GPA says $4300 for a 7.0 in 2020, but $3400 for a 2.0 in 2022.  Will be interesting to see if this even gets close to the original sale price, but I'd take the under.

https://comics.ha.com/itm/golden-age-1938-1955-/sub-mariner-comics-32-the-promise-collection-pedigree-timely-1949-cgc-fn-vf-70-off-white-to-white-pages/a/7283-93082.s?ic4=GalleryView-Thumbnail-071515

 

Edited November 5, 2022 by szav

[adamstrange]

On 11/5/2022 at 12:19 PM, szav said:

There's one in the current auction right now.  Sold for 24k originally.  I don't follow Timely titles too closely but GPA says $4300 for a 7.0 in 2020, but $3400 for a 2.0 in 2022.  Will be interesting to see if this even gets close to the original sale price, but I'd take the under.

https://comics.ha.com/itm/golden-age-1938-1955-/sub-mariner-comics-32-the-promise-collection-pedigree-timely-1949-cgc-fn-vf-70-off-white-to-white-pages/a/7283-93082.s?ic4=GalleryView-Thumbnail-071515

 

It's a great book, the Swan Song for Subby. featuring a book length origin story, from when his parents first met up through his initial contact with the humans in New York.  It's the only GA Subby cover by Everett and features his art throughout.