Post your Promise Collection wins! 16 16

[lou_fine]

On 11/19/2022 at 4:27 PM, buttock said:

Absolutely painful.  I know I overpaid for a couple of the ones I got, but I wasn't after them for the financial gain, rather to get the books.  More incentive to just enjoy them. 

Now, that's the right attitude to take when it comes to books that you really want for your personal collection, as it's not always about the money sometimes. 

Especially when it comes to some of these more obscure books from the Promise Collection which just don't tend to show up in the marketplace very often, and certainly not with the eye popping colors that most of the books from this collection exhibits.  

[lou_fine]

On 11/18/2022 at 6:29 PM, Badger said:

On 11/18/2022 at 6:21 PM, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

OMG. Could it be the crypto guys are bailing, taking pennies on the dollar?

No idea. Heritage definitely expected it to do better. It was a Featured book. 

Either that or they clearly knew the winner had grossly overpaid for the book in the first go round and was simply trying to bail the poor guy out.  

More likely though if they knew the first result was a definite outlier, probably trying not to tarnish their brand by having the book do what it ended up doing anyways in this second go round.  

[Cat-Man_America]

On 11/17/2022 at 5:50 PM, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

Uh oh. Well this canary didn’t do so well in the coal mine. . .

We both looked at this book at the Collectors Summit.  That quarter inch tear on the front cover was a deal breaker for me, more so than the actual grader's opinion. Promise prices are coming down because the gild is off that lily and there seem to be quite a few differences of opinion with graders on this particular pedigree.  Overall, hammer prices were fairly strong in this auction for other books given the economic climate.  In fact, some closing bids were jaw dropping.  

The one high grade book I tried to snag looked like a sure thing based on the last sale of a similar book in the same grade several years ago, but it went for over double that! In fact, I placed three increments of insurance on it to protect my bid.  I'm not saying here which book right now ...even though it wasn't a Timely... as I may try to seek one out in slightly lesser grade if the price is right.

Speaking of Timelys, from my perspective, non-Promise Timelys semed to be pulling down top dollar in grade, but I haven't compared sales data across the board with this auction.

On 11/19/2022 at 6:20 PM, MasterChief said:

Update!

Current Promise Collection ROI snapshot.

Chart includes recent reselling of Sub-Mariner Comics #32 and Terry-Toons Comics #38.

(Source: Heritage Auctions. Data sorted by oldest to newest Sale Date)

 

Excellent chart and a clear indication that most Promise books aren't fairing well for flippers.  The only caveat I'd make in assessing loses is that there aren't many Timely hero books here.  In fact, it appears that the mid-grade Sub-Mariner #32 is the only one.  It's hard to establish any trends on Timely high grades from the Promise Collection because there haven't been many flipped. I'm not saying that the #32 is a fluke, but it would be interesting to see others of similar grade sold in the current economic climate to get a good feel for market based fluctuation.  Generally, it's fair to say that a lot of folks got on the Promise Collection bandwagon in the heat of the moment ...for whatever reason... and resale prices aren't currently reflecting good investments.

[lou_fine]

On 11/5/2022 at 1:57 AM, jimbo_7071 said:

Have you looked at books sold through other venues? I noticed this one on CLink a while back. It sold for $870 on Heritage back on 9/13/21. I would imagine that the seller was pleased to have not had to take too big of a hit.

Yes, compared to some of the other Promise Collection resales, this Punch Comics 17 got off rather softly with less than a 10% hit.   

I guess the lesson here is that if you grossly overpay for a book which some winners have obviously done with some of these Promise Collection books, expect to lose big money on the book if you try to flip them back out almost immediately.  

Interesting to note that when I took a look at this copy of Punch 17 in the Heritage archives, I happened to notice the Church copy of this same book being sold and then resold a few more times after the initial sale.  Looks like it was first sold as a raw VF/NM copy for $657.25 back in 2008, then as a CGC 8.5 graded copy for only $537.75 in 2008, successfully CPR to a CGC 9.0 graded copy and resold back to its original price of $657.25 in 2011, and then only to be unsuccessfully CPR one more time back to its original CGC 8.5 grade, but successfully resold for $1,020 in 2018.  Looks like the biggest winner in the CPR game with this particular Church copy of Punch 17 were Heritage and CGC.   

[lou_fine]

On 11/19/2022 at 4:20 PM, MasterChief said:

Update!

Current Promise Collection ROI snapshot.

Chart includes recent reselling of Sub-Mariner Comics #32 and Terry-Toons Comics #38.

(Source: Heritage Auctions. Data sorted by oldest to newest Sale Date)

 

Hey Mitch;

Fantastic work as always which should not come as a surprise given your penchant for detailed and thorough analysis.  

Noticed that your chart here has only the one single column for the CGC grade.  Are we supposed to really believe that there was not one successful upgrade or even an attempt at an upgrade with any of these books here, when the marketplace since CGC came on board has seemingly been mostly about the CPR game?  If this is actually the case here, it almost makes me wonder if both Heritage and CGC was playing a different game here or had a different set of rules in place when it came to the Promise Collection books.    

[Badger]

On 11/20/2022 at 2:16 AM, lou_fine said:

Yes, compared to some of the other Promise Collection resales, this Punch Comics 17 got off rather softly with less than a 10% hit.   

I guess the lesson here is that if you grossly overpay for a book which some winners have obviously done with some of these Promise Collection books, expect to lose big money on the book if you try to flip them back out almost immediately.  

Interesting to note that when I took a look at this copy of Punch 17 in the Heritage archives, I happened to notice the Church copy of this same book being sold and then resold a few more times after the initial sale.  Looks like it was first sold as a raw VF/NM copy for $657.25 back in 2008, then as a CGC 8.5 graded copy for only $537.75 in 2008, successfully CPR to a CGC 9.0 graded copy and resold back to its original price of $657.25 in 2011, and then only to be unsuccessfully CPR one more time back to its original CGC 8.5 grade, but successfully resold for $1,020 in 2018.  Looks like the biggest winner in the CPR game with this particular Church copy of Punch 17 were Heritage and CGC.   

That is crazy and really sad! You have to wonder just how many of these books are going to disintegrate 20 years from now due to the CPR to which they are subjected. May not happen but I will not be surprised if it does.

[Badger]

On 11/20/2022 at 2:30 AM, lou_fine said:

Hey Mitch;

Fantastic work as always which should not come as a surprise given your penchant for detailed and thorough analysis.  

Noticed that your chart here has only the one single column for the CGC grade.  Are we supposed to really believe that there was not one successful upgrade or even an attempt at an upgrade with any of these books here, when the marketplace since CGC came on board has seemingly been mostly about the CPR game?  If this is actually the case here, it almost makes me wonder if both Heritage and CGC was playing a different game here or had a different set of rules in place when it came to the Promise Collection books.    

My theory here is that Heritage and CGC left absolutely no meat on the bone and redid CPR if there was even a shadow of a non-color breaking crease. Flippers may be trying to get some higher grades, and a few might succeed, but I do not think there is anything left to CPR. All the Promise in these books have been pressed out.

[sagii]

Maybe the ones they left (and auctioned) raw weren't pressed? 

[batman_fan]

On 11/19/2022 at 5:20 PM, MasterChief said:

Update!

Current Promise Collection ROI snapshot.

Chart includes recent reselling of Sub-Mariner Comics #32 and Terry-Toons Comics #38.

(Source: Heritage Auctions. Data sorted by oldest to newest Sale Date)

 

Read my new book "Flipping for fun and profit losses"

[batman_fan]

This same thing happened on the Billy books.  Right after they were auctioned they were flipped.  Some got the treatment before flipping.  Most resold at a loss, some a significant drop but now the people that held their Billy books are doing pretty well.

[MasterChief]

On 11/19/2022 at 10:16 PM, lou_fine said:

On 11/4/2022 at 10:57 PM, jimbo_7071 said:

Have you looked at books sold through other venues? I noticed this one on CLink a while back. It sold for $870 on Heritage back on 9/13/21. I would imagine that the seller was pleased to have not had to take too big of a hit.

Yes, compared to some of the other Promise Collection resales, this Punch Comics 17 got off rather softly with less than a 10% hit.   

I missed the PC#17 resale. Thanks for info! 

[MasterChief]

On 11/19/2022 at 10:30 PM, lou_fine said:

Noticed that your chart here has only the one single column for the CGC grade.  Are we supposed to really believe that there was not one successful upgrade or even an attempt at an upgrade with any of these books here, when the marketplace since CGC came on board has seemingly been mostly about the CPR game?  If this is actually the case here, it almost makes me wonder if both Heritage and CGC was playing a different game here or had a different set of rules in place when it came to the Promise Collection books.    

An interesting question. I have yet to see a manipulated Promise book post initial sale. While there have been many, many cases of books going through the process multiple times down through the years, the paper mechanics seem to be shying away from these so far. Personally, I don’t believe every certified book got the treatment; and those that were originally overpriced, regardless of the possibility of initial enhancement, are getting a second opportunistic look.

[MasterChief]

On 11/20/2022 at 5:46 AM, Badger said:

All the Promise in these books have been pressed out.

[jimbo_7071]

On 11/20/2022 at 1:21 AM, lou_fine said:

Now, that's the right attitude to take when it comes to books that you really want for your personal collection, as it's not always about the money sometimes. 

Especially when it comes to some of these more obscure books from the Promise Collection which just don't tend to show up in the marketplace very often, and certainly not with the eye popping colors that most of the books from this collection exhibits.  

It can be a tough call with scarcer books. I paid $5K for this one, which was a steep price. The thing is, I have no idea against whom I was bidding. Was I bidding against someone who would have re-listed the book a year down the road, or was I bidding against someone who would have locked it away in his private collection for decades? The Mile High copy is still raw, and I have no idea where that one resides or whether it's still in the same condition it was when Chuck sold it. Did it spend a summer turning brown in someone's shed down in Texas? Did somebody's cat pee on it? When will it be offered for sale? Collecting would be so much easier if only I were omniscient. If only . . . 

[buttock]

On 11/20/2022 at 11:23 AM, MasterChief said:

An interesting question. I have yet to see a manipulated Promise book post initial sale. While there have been many, many cases of books going through the process multiple times down through the years, the paper mechanics seem to be shying away from these so far. Personally, I don’t believe every certified book got the treatment; and those that were originally overpriced, regardless of the possibility of initial enhancement, are getting a second opportunistic look.

Steve Ritter has a few on his website, although they are cracked out and given a higher raw grade. But that does tell me that not every book was maximized before certification.

Edited November 20, 2022 by buttock

[bounty_coder]

On 11/20/2022 at 12:17 PM, buttock said:

Steve Ritter has a few on his website, although they are cracked out and given a higher raw grade. But that does tell me that not every book was maximized before certification.

I can attest. My Boy Comics #11 which I was not original bidder on, but got in a trade deal post auction is definitely improvable and was not maximized. Good accumulation of non color breaking defects. Gosh this book just sings 😍

 

Edited November 20, 2022 by bounty_coder

[buttock]

On 11/20/2022 at 1:25 PM, bounty_coder said:

I can attest. My Boy Comics #11 which I was not original bidder on, but got in a trade deal post auction is definitely improvable and was not maximized. Good accumulation of non color breaking defects. Gosh this book just sings 😍

 

They do look good in a slab.

[BLR65]

On 11/20/2022 at 2:39 PM, jimbo_7071 said:

It can be a tough call with scarcer books. I paid $5K for this one, which was a steep price. The thing is, I have no idea against whom I was bidding. Was I bidding against someone who would have re-listed the book a year down the road, or was I bidding against someone who would have locked it away in his private collection for decades? The Mile High copy is still raw, and I have no idea where that one resides or whether it's still in the same condition it was when Chuck sold it. Did it spend a summer turning brown in someone's shed down in Texas? Did somebody's cat pee on it? When will it be offered for sale? Collecting would be so much easier if only I were omniscient. If only . . . 

I threw at least one bid at this issue.  Great cover.  Congrats.

 

[BLR65]

Here is one of The Promise books I won. Mostly a cover collector -- I collect what appeals to my eye. For me, once slabbed, the cover is what it's all about.

 

 

[BLR65]

'cause Robots and "head-scratching" mini, shark-like space vehicles...