The Future of Golden Age comic book collecting post 2021: Blackstone, Promise and Beyond: The great unknown. 1 1

[tth2]

1 hour ago, Aman619 said:

downside of course is, as cynical and money chasing many here accused CGC of being, that Blackstone might do things that would make Steve and Mark blush! 

As I said in the Water Cooler, the recipe for success will be:

1.  charge higher grading fees to increase revenue

2.  grade more quickly to increase revenue

3.  grade more leniently to increase revenue

To your point, I would add:

4.  grade more different stuff to increase revenue 

[tth2]

1 minute ago, Buzzetta said:

3 minutes ago, tth2 said:

That was Eddie Lampert, not Blackstone.

I am aware of that.  I was providing a similar example of what could happen. 

Yes, but others here not as knowledgeable about PE investments might have assumed that it was Blackstone.

[Buzzetta]

If you are talking about expansion opportunities then I see CCG exploring options into toy grading and sports memorabilia grading.  

Also, if that happens then I double down on what I have said about the signature series program being heavily revised. 

[pemart1966]

I don't know about anyone else, but the more I read this  discussion, the more I miss the days when you could buy legitimate mint early golden age superhero comics for $20 or less   

Virtually every book was within financial reach if you could find it.  Now, a lot of these books literally take a life time of earnings to buy and are only within reach of the world's richest people.  

HOW WAS THIS ALLOWED TO HAPPEN??????

Edited July 3, 2021 by pemart1966

[atomised]

No matter what happens with Blackstone or CGC, we'll always have PGX

[thehumantorch]

1 hour ago, atomised said:

No matter what happens with Blackstone or CGC, we'll always have PGX

Whew, now I feel better.

[fifties]

2 hours ago, pemart1966 said:

I don't know about anyone else, but the more I read this  discussion, the more I miss the days when you could buy legitimate mint early golden age superhero comics for $20 or less   

Virtually every book was within financial reach if you could find it.  Now, a lot of these books literally take a life time of earnings to buy and a lot are only within reach of the world's richest people.  

HOW WAS THIS ALLOWED TO HAPPEN??????

I've never collected super hero, just horror and crime, but I can tell you that two decades ago, one could find an incredible assortment in those genres of fairly priced books on eBay, raw.  I'm guessing that the internet made it possible for those of us looking to collect and hold were able to do just that, obtaining them from individuals and dealers via The Bay.  Now the sources have been dried up for some years, since the books by and large are simply being held.  The better condition ones are apparently often times sent to be professionally graded and slabbed.  With current inflation and limited inventory, both raw and slabbed have moved the affordability bar upward.  Way upward.

[waaaghboss]

So basically,  as a collector not an investor, my hobby is going to get more expensive?

[jimbo_7071]

4 hours ago, waaaghboss said:

So basically,  as a collector not an investor, my hobby is going to get more expensive?

I haven't been able to buy any books of any quality since 2013. Anything I've bought since then has basically been riff raff. It probably doesn't even make sense for me to still be participating in the hobby.

[bronze johnny]

17 hours ago, Mmehdy said:

Crystal Ball time here fellow board members and I hope you will add, extend, and give your opinion as to where we are headed in Golden Age collecting land...up up and above for the future. After, my God, 60 years of comic book collecting since buying  FF#1 off newsstand in 1961 we have come a long long way. But I can honestly say that 2021 is by far the most significant year in GA comic book collecting that I have participated with joy in. All is not 100% bright, but he is my guess, after 60 years years and I believe over 50 years or ago when I stated the Comic book collecting Clue for all Sacramento comic book collectors (see earlier posts for  Journey of a comic book collector for a copy of the clue flyer say circa 1965) we have a hit a milestone year which in 10/20 years from 2021 will be judged very historical.

 1- BLACKSTONE Buys CGC in 2021:

 Let me be clear here about two things. 1- when you control the company 50.1% or more you OWN it, you can at any time take existing shareholders and bleed them out through stock dilution. Now not every company who acquires it will, since the principal owners might actually direct or control the company and then just report to corporate ( Blackstone management) but at some point or whenever they want, they can wipe out anybody. A  fundamental rule  when it comes to civil litigation: whoever has the most money wins...eventially.  Blackstone has the money, a lot of it. It would be exceptionally unusual , probably impossible to get a sophisticated  company like Blackstone to grant "non-dilution" shares to the original stockholders...2- Blackstone does not invest $500 million if it does not thing its gonna make a Billion... or more with some of the best number crunchers in the company buying biz. So they own it...lock stock and barrel .

 Now we deal with the issue that Wall Street now controls a major GA comic book player, and is it that a good thing?  It is, 100% and why. Here we have a "Warren Buffet" type company betting half a billion dollars on the CG/SA comic book market and collectables market in general  PLUS putting further cash infusions into their purchase to get the "numbers" for their shareholders or investors, or Wall Street or whomever. I like the fact these guys know what they are doing and do not think that this end for "big investor money coming in to buy other players in our GA comic book world, this is just the beginning . It is like the old add, EF Hutton commercial with a 2021 variant .. When Blackstone makes a move..."people listen". The happiness guy alive today or yesterday is not the sellers of the CGC, LOL they are number 2. But Steve, our  the CGC competitor IF he got as part of his "sale" of the other company a stock option in that company or some type of retained ownership of his former  grading service because that company just became target #2 on the Wall Street investor hit list, especially if Blackstone turns its 500M investment into gold, heck they could even buy them.

 The future is clear for both  CGC and the other guy as I related in earlier posts over the last few years, the" other guy" was created for a" buy out" once they has established a significant market share by their competition. Where the miscalculation lied was that CGC had the market wrapped up on ultra high end sales of GA and SA books and they could not shake them out with a price reduction or quicker grading time. So, they went lateral and sold to another collectable  grading company and I am sure after sale today, that it looks really really great today the company that bought them for a bargain with hindsight , and look out..they could be then $400 Million future  buyout. The flip side of this is that no way will the competitor ever be able to outspend, outthink, or outdo Blackstone. These guys are the real deal, they put their money. where their month is and they make a profit overall. This insures CGC status at the #1 comic book grading company for the long term future.

 So that means for the time being that CGC is bulletproof from anyone else. That is not good thing but a great thing. The future and the company performance will determine whether it is a long term hold for Blackstone, or a revamp lipstick resell job. I believe, with this major Wall Street leap of faith in the collectables market, that it looks very good that we will have their management knowledge, expertise and expansion of CGC for a very long time. I am not saying their are not coming in wanting to make money, I am saying if the payoff each year gets better and better they do NOT have to sell, but reap the benefits as long as the return is above their average rate of minimum retention goals they have for their company and investors.

 I predict Blackstone will keep CGC for a very long time, and when they sell they will make a very very large profit. Even if they sell, for a very large price the new buyers will want keep the asset alive and well with that substantial of a new investment. When Blackstone throws the dice, they are not looking for say 10% or 20% long term return..no they do that probably on stock market trading alone, they are look at two of three times the roll amount, 1 Billion and probably more for the payout.

2- The Promise collection and record GA sales prices in general in 2021:

 I know a lot of us what to find the "golden Willy Wonka" easy single answer here. Well folks is not one, but a combination of economic and GA/SA comic book Wall Street/ investor recognition flamed by the greatest GA comic book OO pedigree collection coming to market in the last 30/40 years. That is it. Full acceptance that GASA  comic books have intrinsic value both in 2021 and in the foreseeable  future. That to a lot  people GA comic books are and will be in the future attractive widgets to invest in, like gold, coins and artwork. We are there now 2-21 with the greatest acceptance of that fact in the history of our Ga/SA comic book world. We will continue to see record GA/SA prices especially in the Upper or Ultra keys from this day forward for the next 20 years unless a meteor  hits the planet earth and gets us again like dinosaurs. Sure, there will be pauses in the next twenty years, some sideways, but overall look forGA CGC graded collectables to hold their own. The one good thing Cyptro currency has created is a generation  of NEW investors who will take a chance, gamble etc. The emergence of the Marvel and DC universe both on the movie screen as well as media platforms such as Disney/HBO Max on this new generation of new investors  is to EXPOSE this generation of  media drive  to this material and has thus in 2021 created the perfect storm here in out comic book collecting world. They do not know about stamps, and to some extent coins...but they know JLA directors cut premier on HBO/Max . 2020/21 and Avengers  thus as a result  this has been very favorable to the comic book world in general with the forced stay at home media driven investor.

 When great material like the Promise collection  hits the GA comic book market it infuses new energy., excitement , and new publicity even to non-collectors as mentioned in other post on the board. That is  great thing for everyone here on the form as long term collectors.

GA comic book collecting has grown up and matured into a full collecting body in its prime of life in 2021. Hitting on al cylinders.

In the past I have been afraid of the "widget" buyer in our great comic book world. With this Blackstone purchase, however I have changed my opinion to say I accept you in our world. Wall Street, widget buyer, pancake presser the world world.  I admit it creates  our GA even SA comic book world a more exciting and competitive place. Yes we do not know if our E-bay under bidder was "flipper" or even worse LOL a presser flipper...but so be it. I love our GA comic book and will do so until I take my last breath. I for one remember trying to convince the 99.9% of the outside back in the lates/ early 70's that comic books and especially GA comics were  much greater than the category that society had placed them in. In 2021 our GA comic book world is bigger,badder and who is to judge whether anyone can participate in it.

 Ga/SA books could are  artistic masterpieces and added with  superb stories in my opinion. They can  transport you back to a time when we were fighting the greatest evil man has know in history and which Captain American #1 so bravely put on the cover of the newsstands of America knocking it on the jaw or seeing Superman  race a train in Superman#3 

 Now a bigger, even better world can enjoy GA comic book collecting in 2021 and and my prediction for the future  GA/SA comic book world the is very very bright.

 

Thanks for the speculation. The world of selling and buying collectibles will move forward and be a good place for sellers and buyers only when the following happens:

1) A regulatory body starts meticulously watching the collectibles “market” - this will in all probability happen at some point when enough people get burned - especially where there’s a great deal of money exchanged

2) Greater transparency in the auction process

3) Greater transparency in ownership so that business conflicts and possible collusion is avoided 

Only then will we have greater credibility and reliability in terms of the value of collectibles and a real market.

I’m looking forward to seeing this happen in the future so my fellow collectors and me continue to enjoy the hobby - a hobby that doesn’t exclusively revolve around these boards and the concept of graded books and their value.

John

[DanCooper]

I can see expansion of CGC, both domestically and globally, being part of Blackstone's game plan to handle demand and increase revenues. Setting up CGC facilities, outside of the main Sarasota one, in other locations in the USA and abroad. Some, have mentioned in other threads, that collectors will catch on to a CGC location that may be more lenient on grading and send books there, but something like that would probably go unnoticed to 99% of the people out there. The 1%  (i.e. "The Boards" here) would probably be the only ones noticing and aware of these trends.

Blackstone's mission:

[path4play]

14 hours ago, catman76 said:

How is any of this great for collectors? cgc and all this promise collection bs etc just makes all the rich keep driving prices up so no real person can afford anything. I couldn't afford much 35 years ago and now I can't even afford what used to be dirt cheap and no one cared about. But now that it's encased in plastic and has some made up number on it everyone pays tons for it all and now even trashed comics are getting out of my price range.

Comic collecting just keeps getting worse and worse to me.

1) It all depends on when you got in.  I started back again about 10 yrs. ago after collecting as a kid in the mid-70s.  And yes, I regret selling anything over that time -

2) but you can still buy Western's and Funny Animals.  Or covers, insides etc.,  Personally, I don't need "keys" - I just like old stuff for some reason.  When they go left, I go right.  Frankly its entertainment, some people like gardening, some stocks, some casinos....  Buy what you can afford and feels good is an often stated mantra here that I think holds true through the ages.  Its strange to me to hear people upset that demand and inflation increase values (particularly when they are sitting on 1,000's of books for decades).  I wish I could buy Google and Amazon stock, or Malibu real estate at 40 year ago prices too.  Can't feel too bad to say your collection has outperformed the S&P?  Frankly I don't need or want the stress or pressure of owning a Sups #1 or Tec #27.

Edited July 3, 2021 by path4play

[Ryan.]

There's plenty of deals out there, even for good stuff. Just gotta hunt a little harder. 

[Robot Man]

54 minutes ago, Ryan. said:

There's plenty of deals out there, even for good stuff. Just gotta hunt a little harder. 

The hunting grounds have pretty much disappeared kemosabe. The buffalo have disappeared. Gotta settle for a few stray elk if you can find them...

[path4play]

16 minutes ago, Robot Man said:

The hunting grounds have pretty much disappeared kemosabe. The buffalo have disappeared. Gotta settle for a few stray elk if you can find them...

Those that pulled the levers then and those that pull the levers now.  If the buffalo of yesteryear are the comics of today, you might want to just sell.

 

[batman_fan]

14 hours ago, tth2 said:

As I said in the Water Cooler, the recipe for success will be:

1.  charge higher grading fees to increase revenue

2.  grade more quickly to increase revenue

3.  grade more leniently to increase revenue

To your point, I would add:

4.  grade more different stuff to increase revenue 

1.  Yes, first step, charge the max the market will bear, especially given it is easy to say "don't like our prices?  Go to PGX" knowing full well people won't.

2.  Yes, process can definitely be streamlined

3.  I sort of hope not but the bottom line will drive what they do.

4.  Yes, lots of stuff they can do that already have an established base (toys, video games, etc).

[Robot Man]

10 minutes ago, path4play said:

Those that pulled the levers then and those that pull the levers now.  If the buffalo of yesteryear are the comics of today, you might want to just sell.

 

I have actually sold a lot of stuff in the past year. ASTOUNDED as to what prices I have gotten at auction. I'm not complaining about high prices. Those books I paid nothing for have probably been the best investment I ever made. I didn't start out with that in mind though, it just worked out well financially. The problem is it's just money. Money is simply the vehicle to buy more stuff. Why get rid of stuff I love for the love of a number? 

Collecting has been a lifelong passion to me. The books are trophies and memories. Good memories. Is money the only thing that matters any more? We are all going to go out like we came in. Naked and screaming with nothing. It's the ride in between that counts. The discoveries, the finds, the friendships and the memories. Money just can't buy that. 

I've spoken to a number of long time collectors who have sold out. Sure the money is great but there is that big void missing in all of them in the end. I wonder what Jon Berk is doing and thinks now?

[Cat-Man_America]

14 hours ago, tth2 said:

As I said in the Water Cooler, the recipe for success will be:

1.  charge higher grading fees to increase revenue

2.  grade more quickly to increase revenue

3.  grade more leniently to increase revenue

 

To your point, I would add:

4.  grade more different stuff to increase revenue 

These three bullet points may be the short term trifecta for third-party grading company success.  The $63,000 question is who benefits most from this long term?  

Anyone care to speculate? 

 

15 minutes ago, batman_fan said:

1.  Yes, first step, charge the max the market will bear, especially given it is easy to say "don't like our prices?  Go to PGX" knowing full well people won't.

2.  Yes, process can definitely be streamlined

3.  I sort of hope not but the bottom line will drive what they do.

4.  Yes, lots of stuff they can do that already have an established base (toys, video games, etc).

You know full well that that isn't the elephant in the room!  

[Robot Man]

Remember the good times @Mmehdy? What happened?  

[Mmehdy]

7 hours ago, bronze johnny said:

Thanks for the speculation. The world of selling and buying collectibles will move forward and be a good place for sellers and buyers only when the following happens:

1) A regulatory body starts meticulously watching the collectibles “market” - this will in all probability happen at some point when enough people get burned - especially where there’s a great deal of money exchanged

2) Greater transparency in the auction process

3) Greater transparency in ownership so that business conflicts and possible collusion is avoided 

Only then will we have greater credibility and reliability in terms of the value of collectibles and a real market.

I’m looking forward to seeing this happen in the future so my fellow collectors and me continue to enjoy the hobby - a hobby that doesn’t exclusively revolve around these boards and the concept of graded books and their value.

John

Great post  Bronze Johnny  and I can understand your point of view.

 I did receive similar feedback on this thread  from my two "old time" whale type collectors who have been collecting since one 60's and the other early 70's. They made some interesting points and while I try to get them to come on the boards, they just won't, one afraid and the other just wants to read it..daily...lol. The first point raised by the senior of the two GA/SA comic books collectors was that he speculated that some of Blackstone"s investors, friends  or employee's or whomever, even the bankers, knowing that this deal was gonna down in advance, might of began buying choice GA/SA ahead of the curve and this explains possible why we are seeking astounding  price growth, especially the 5.0 over million dollar sale of Dect#27 in which there were two bidders at like 1.1 or something like that. This is pure speculation on his part, but his gut is telling him some outside and previously unknown forces have come recently into market, especially reflected in the 22.5 M dollar  Ha sale which just finished. So I throw this thought out to the boards to expand, or disagree with. He speculates that they have began amassing or investing in a large number of  super key GA/SA or  extremely high graded  comic books and key original art. Time will tell but he feels that have been amassing this for some time.

 The second comment is quite interesting. It it related to the Blackstone investment as well as other Wall Street Players. He too believes that Wall Street could come in, and attempt to completely monetize the collectable GA/SA comic book market. HIs concern with this is history. History tells us when a market is speculated and monetized that it will at some point self correct or crash and there is not exception.  Our GA/SA comic books world has seen a few speculation booms come and go in 1990's. 2000 etc. BUT the GA and Key SA markets were unaffected by 3 million Spiderman#1's being sold. It has really been a slow and steady up chart for the last 50 years or since Bob Overstreet began in 1971 which 50 years spot on. Bob, in his opinion tempering of the price grown, especially early on was the best thing to ever happen to our comic book collecting world. It was by large means insulated from the pure speculators taking over the hobby on the real collectable issues of the GA/SA and that is why when the comic market crashed on the New newsstand material, it did not affect the price nor demand for Action #1, Cap 1, FF1 etc.  His point is if our GA/SA comic book market turns into 90% speculation and handful of real TCBC's the laws of monetary reality will apply. Interesting thoughts. The next speculated target he thinks is HA.Com.

Bronze Johnny you post directly deals with these issues raised by our Silent Majority viewers here, I am sure both myself and them agree with your very positive and insightful post 100%.  Thank You.

 

Edited July 3, 2021 by Mmehdy