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New Action #1 CGC 8.0 and New Detective Comics #27 CGC 8.5 in the Census
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542 posts in this topic

On 7/27/2021 at 2:25 PM, RareHighGrade said:

Not to beat a dead horse, but in light of the rather sloppy grading by CGC of many of the Promise Collection books, they don't appear to be earning the higher fees they now charge.

Ummm......................I believe the consignors of the Promise Collection pedigree books, whether they be the familly or Heritage themselves, would respectfully tend to disagree with your viewpoint here.  :takeit:

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On 7/28/2021 at 10:54 AM, GreatCaesarsGhost said:
On 7/28/2021 at 9:13 AM, tth2 said:

Given that their sloppiness seems to be in favor of the submitter rather than against, I would argue that the sloppiness is actually a good reason to submit to CGC! 

There are some other threads where the submitting boardies are saying cgc is grading their submissions harder than usual.
I don’t even want to consider the implications 

That might be the case for mere mortals, but RHG's collection would be like another Promise and I'm sure the red carpet would be rolled out for him.

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On 7/26/2021 at 11:42 AM, rob_react said:

In addition to the easily verified census entries, I was told privately, that the Detective 27 is the Church copy and the Action #1 is the Larson copy. Can anyone verify? As often happens searching for both books just leads back to my own site, so that's useless to try to verify. 

Also, does anyone know if these books are in the same collection? It seems likely, but it could just be a coincidence. I'd love to verify that, as well.    

I noted in the Promise thread that there was a new 8.5 Tec 27 back on June 9th.

But the pedigree copies you mention make sense as yes, both are owned by the same long-time collector (last interaction I had with him was around 2004 when he bought a 9.4 Journey 83 from Keith and me). 

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On 7/28/2021 at 8:25 AM, Crowzilla said:

I noted in the Promise thread that there was a new 8.5 Tec 27 back on June 9th.

But the pedigree copies you mention make sense as yes, both are owned by the same long-time collector (last interaction I had with him was around 2004 when he bought a 9.4 Journey 83 from Keith and me). 

Thanks! At this point (with your anecdote and some other info) I'm satisfied that these are, in fact, the Church and Larson copies. So very cool.

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On 7/28/2021 at 7:25 AM, Crowzilla said:

I noted in the Promise thread that there was a new 8.5 Tec 27 back on June 9th.

But the pedigree copies you mention make sense as yes, both are owned by the same long-time collector (last interaction I had with him was around 2004 when he bought a 9.4 Journey 83 from Keith and me). 

Who does this long time collector prefer in terms of auction houses ?  Is Arnie Sawyer the owner as previously mentioned ?

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On 7/28/2021 at 9:09 AM, rob_react said:

Thanks! At this point (with your anecdote and some other info) I'm satisfied that these are, in fact, the Church and Larson copies. So very cool.

So the question last week was whether or not the 9.6 AF15 was going to best the 8.5 Action 1 price from earlier this year, but now the question is (if these are truly going to auction) is how much does the 8.5 Tec 27 beat the Action 1 by?

Normally I would say a same grade Tec27 loses to the equal Action 1, but this is will be the highest graded 27 offered for auction in the CGC era, and it's the Church copy to boot. I would think a new record is all but guaranteed.

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On 7/28/2021 at 6:09 AM, rob_react said:

Thanks! At this point (with your anecdote and some other info) I'm satisfied that these are, in fact, the Church and Larson copies. So very cool.

Here's a link to the earlier discussion.  One page earlier Buttock made it clear he had the inside scoop, so you could ask him.

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On 7/28/2021 at 11:49 AM, Crowzilla said:

So the question last week was whether or not the 9.6 AF15 was going to best the 8.5 Action 1 price from earlier this year, but now the question is (if these are truly going to auction) is how much does the 8.5 Tec 27 beat the Action 1 by?

Normally I would say a same grade Tec27 loses to the equal Action 1, but this is will be the highest graded 27 offered for auction in the CGC era, and it's the Church copy to boot. I would think a new record is all but guaranteed. 

I'm going to give it a think, but i think both the AF15 and the Church Detective #27 will set new records. The church book will be unpredictable but only on how high it goes. No one has had a chance to buy a book like this in many years. Action #1 has been in circulation in high grade.

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On 7/28/2021 at 9:22 AM, rob_react said:

I'm going to give it a think, but i think both the AF15 and the Church Detective #27 will set new records. The church book will be unpredictable but only on how high it goes. No one has had a chance to buy a book like this in many years. Action #1 has been in circulation in high grade.

Not sure why folks think that the 9.6 is going to hit $2M+. The last 9.4 only garnered $795K, only about 12% above a pre-Covid sale back in 2017. So I'm not seeing a huge "Covid boost" on this book.  Furthermore, the when one of the other three 9.6s broke $1M back in 2011, wasn't it the only 9.6 on the census?  Now there are four.

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On 7/28/2021 at 12:38 PM, sfcityduck said:

Not sure why folks think that the 9.6 is going to hit $2M+. The last 9.4 only garnered $795K, only about 12% above a pre-Covid sale back in 2017. So I'm not seeing a huge "Covid boost" on this book.  Furthermore, the when one of the other three 9.6s broke $1M back in 2011, wasn't it the only 9.6 on the census?  Now there are four.

795 was 1.5 years ago.     A long time in this market, and at the very very very beginning of covid (Mar 5, 2020).   If I recall correctly, I didn't get the order to leave my place of work until about the 15th.     I.e.  Effectively, the 795k is itself pre-covid.     A year and a half of big sales later, I'd say a 9.4 is a comfortably a seven figure book now.   A 9.6 obviously another level again.

Edited by Bronty
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On 7/28/2021 at 9:22 AM, rob_react said:

I'm going to give it a think, but i think both the AF15 and the Church Detective #27 will set new records. The church book will be unpredictable but only on how high it goes. No one has had a chance to buy a book like this in many years. Action #1 has been in circulation in high grade.

I will second that, with the Det #27 coming out top by a million.

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On 7/28/2021 at 9:48 AM, Bronty said:

795 was 1.5 years ago.     A long time in this market, and at the very very very beginning of covid (Mar 5, 2020).   If I recall correctly, I didn't get the order to leave my place of work until about the 15th.     I.e.  Effectively, the 795k is itself pre-covid.     A year and a half of big sales later, I'd say a 9.4 is a comfortably a seven figure book now.   A 9.6 obviously another level again.

I agree. Pre-Covid, pre the madness that is the current situation, I'd say somewhere in the 1.4-2 mil area made sense for the 9.6. But now, with a 7.0 selling for roughly $200K recently, a book that couldn't even break $100K pre-covid, I'd say the 9.6 is definitely going to break 2 mil, with the sky being the limit. Pre Covid, 4.0's were as low as $25K-$30K, now selling for over $50K. AF15 has gotten soo hot again!

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On 7/28/2021 at 10:05 AM, Chicago Boy said:

If they go to auction soon. Tec Church, AF 15, Action Larson in that order IMO. 

That AF 15 will have to do better than $2M to beat out an Action 1 Larson 8.0.  The KC Action 1 8.0 sold for $1M in 2010.  A year before the then sole (I think) AF 15 9.6 sole for $1.1M.  Since then, we've see the 8.5 Action 1 sell for $3.25M.  $3.25M for the fourth best copy (assuming MH is no. 1), with the Larson and KC as the next two best copies.  

So the way I see the question is whether what is now a top four AF 15 (there is always the risk with a 1960s book that a really great new copy will emerge as the many guys who started collecting in the 1960s start liquidating) is worth more than a top six Action 1 (with a cool pedigree).  

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On 7/28/2021 at 1:54 PM, sfcityduck said:

That AF 15 will have to do better than $2M to beat out an Action 1 Larson 8.0.  The KC Action 1 8.0 sold for $1M in 2010.  A year before the then sole (I think) AF 15 9.6 sole for $1.1M.  Since then, we've see the 8.5 Action 1 sell for $3.25M.  $3.25M for the fourth best copy (assuming MH is no. 1), with the Larson and KC as the next two best copies.  

So the way I see the question is whether what is now a top four AF 15 (there is always the risk with a 1960s book that a really great new copy will emerge as the many guys who started collecting in the 1960s start liquidating) is worth more than a top six Action 1 (with a cool pedigree).  

 I believe the answer here is yes (and a huge yes).

It was November 2011 before the 2nd 9.6 AF15 joined the census, but here we are nearly a decade later and still one has never been offered for public auction. Many people have been waiting for this chance for a very long time (and if you remember, I was one of the people who was less than impressed with the 9.4 sale a year ago). It's not just top four, it's the highest graded (of the most collected title/character) and than means a lot to the label chasers. Going to be some serious bitcoin cashed in on all these incredible books coming  to market.

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On 7/28/2021 at 3:43 PM, Crowzilla said:

 I believe the answer here is yes (and a huge yes).

It was November 2011 before the 2nd 9.6 AF15 joined the census, but here we are nearly a decade later and still one has never been offered for public auction. Many people have been waiting for this chance for a very long time (and if you remember, I was one of the people who was less than impressed with the 9.4 sale a year ago). It's not just top four, it's the highest graded (of the most collected title/character) and than means a lot to the label chasers. Going to be some serious bitcoin cashed in on all these incredible books coming  to market.

I see it similarly. I think the AF15 is going to go absolutely crazy.

ONLY TO BE TOPPED BY THE CHURCH DETECTIVE 27 (if it in fact goes up for sale) which, in my mind, will be the most appealing single book to come up for auction in the CGC era. 

I'm feeling faint. 

Both of these books could be driven up by the fact that there's a decade of dry powder waiting for a a 9.6 AF15 and a high grade Detective 27. That's the thing that makes a pure comparison across the three books tougher than it would be just based on what x,y, and z sold for last and their normal place in the hobby.

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Isn't Larson one of the top pedigrees?  That is, a pedigree that gets a big premium over same grade non-pedigree copies.

Could that not push it to around the 8.5 Action 1, $3.25 million, or better?

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Keep in mind as was pointed out earlier that the 3.25 sale of the 8.5 was a private negotiation and NOT THE RESULT OF BIDS AT AUCTION.  sorry. Caps lock.  There’s a different vibe when at action versus a take it leave negotiation.  You ae being given the inside to purchase it absent competition (one would hope). Plus, the fact that it was just enough to set a record for the seller who used to own it has its own baggage to unpack. 
 

but conceivably it would have reached 2.5 or 2.7 in an auction, so, at these price levels whats the difference?  It’s petty hard to predict record sales or values  these days. 

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On 7/28/2021 at 2:07 PM, Aman619 said:

Keep in mind as was pointed out earlier that the 3.25 sale of the 8.5 was a private negotiation and NOT THE RESULT OF BIDS AT AUCTION.  sorry. Caps lock.  There’s a different vibe when at action versus a take it leave negotiation.  You ae being given the inside to purchase it absent competition (one would hope). Plus, the fact that it was just enough to set a record for the seller who used to own it has its own baggage to unpack. 
 

but conceivably it would have reached 2.5 or 2.7 in an auction, so, at these price levels whats the difference?  It’s petty hard to predict record sales or values  these days. 

Spot on comment. On a private sale, there is no necessity to sell..so you have to generate some type of attractive offer. Probably the CC client was told by the buyer to get me a high grade action 1 with price not a objective. If I had to guess at that price it was a "hedge" fund type, who just writes a check. The price paid, given the condition was a premium above what a TGCB would have probably paid. The price is paid is great for all of us, however, it could be difficult to resell soon after purchase and break even, let make a profit on that book and assuming only a 10% auction fee...that would put it at break even 3,75M assuming they paid no sales tax and shipment fees.

Edited by Mmehdy
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