New Action #1 CGC 8.0 and New Detective Comics #27 CGC 8.5 in the Census 4 4

[sfcityduck]

On 7/28/2021 at 12:43 PM, Crowzilla said:

 I believe the answer here is yes (and a huge yes).

It was November 2011 before the 2nd 9.6 AF15 joined the census, but here we are nearly a decade later and still one has never been offered for public auction. Many people have been waiting for this chance for a very long time (and if you remember, I was one of the people who was less than impressed with the 9.4 sale a year ago). It's not just top four, it's the highest graded (of the most collected title/character) and than means a lot to the label chasers. Going to be some serious bitcoin cashed in on all these incredible books coming  to market.

All good points.  But, I've seen a lot of irrational exuberance in the predictions for supposedly "hot character" mega books.  Folks were swooning over the San Francisco copy of Captain America Comics 1 CGC 9.4 and it couldn't top the price paid for an AS 8 non-pedigree in the same grade.  So color me a skeptic, but I've been wrong plenty of times before.

[rob_react]

On 7/28/2021 at 6:24 PM, sfcityduck said:

All good points.  But, I've seen a lot of irrational exuberance in the predictions for supposedly "hot character" mega books.  Folks were swooning over the San Francisco copy of Captain America Comics 1 CGC 9.4 and it couldn't top the price paid for an AS 8 non-pedigree in the same grade.  So color me a skeptic, but I've been wrong plenty of times before.

Do you really need the "hot character" quotes for Spider-Man? He's been the most popular character for the 40 years I've been in the hobby.

[tth2]

On 7/28/2021 at 11:49 PM, Crowzilla said:

Normally I would say a same grade Tec27 loses to the equal Action 1, but this is will be the highest graded 27 offered for auction in the CGC era, and it's the Church copy to boot. I would think a new record is all but guaranteed.

Just to be clear, the Church Tec 27 is not being offered for auction (as far as I know).

[sfcityduck]

On 7/28/2021 at 3:54 PM, rob_react said:

Do you really need the "hot character" quotes for Spider-Man? He's been the most popular character for the 40 years I've been in the hobby.

I was thinking about the CA and Wonder Woman results and the whole movie hype concept.  Even so, my collecting started in the 70s and my personal "Golden Age" is the early/mid 80s.  Spider-Man was more a corporate symbol (ala Mickey Mouse) than a hot character back then, at least in my mind.  By the late 80s, I was getting out of comics and missed the whole Mcfarlane thing. Wolverine and Batman were probably the two hottest characters for most of the 80s in my recollection.  X-Men generally were Marvel's gravy train back then.  So tastes change over time.  These days I find that various versions of Spider-Man might be more interesting than Peter Parker himself.  But, that's just a matter of taste.  I'm not denying in any way shape or form that AF 15 is considered the most important SA book for Marvel by many.  So I expect it to get a lot of interest.  I'm curious how much.  It's no where near as rare as Action 1 or Detective 27.  And there were a lot of comic collectors picking up that book back in the day.  I've heard a lot of guys who started collecting in the 60s tell me that it took them just a year or two to get the complete Marvel SA.  So I've got to think that other very high grade AF 15s will emerge out of long held collections.  You hear rumors of such books.  High end collectors probably recognize that risk, just as they have to know that there are better ungraded copies of Action 1 and D27 than what's been graded so far.  

[tth2]

On 7/29/2021 at 5:07 AM, Aman619 said:

Keep in mind as was pointed out earlier that the 3.25 sale of the 8.5 was a private negotiation and NOT THE RESULT OF BIDS AT AUCTION.  sorry. Caps lock.  There’s a different vibe when at action versus a take it leave negotiation.  You ae being given the inside to purchase it absent competition (one would hope). Plus, the fact that it was just enough to set a record for the seller who used to own it has its own baggage to unpack. 
 

but conceivably it would have reached 2.5 or 2.7 in an auction, so, at these price levels whats the difference?  It’s petty hard to predict record sales or values  these days. 

The thing about private sales, besides the fact that the published sale price could be fabricated/embellished (was there a $1 million New Mutants 98 thrown in together with $2.25m of cash?) is that the price is ultimately limited by the seller's imagination.  I can think of numerous books I've sold at auction where the final price was much higher than anything I would've dared to ask for.  Also, at the back of the seller's mind has to be "If this guy was willing to pay this price, maybe someone out there would've been willing to pay more?"

The dynamic is also different for the buyer.  Yes, on the one hand they are being given an exclusive opportunity to get the book by paying the ask price.  But maybe they pass because they know where the book is and figure the seller is now in selling mode, and think they'll get another shot at it later if they wish.  Very different from a no reserve auction where you know the book will be sold at the end of the auction, so either you pay up and win it or someone else will own it who might never put it up for sale and for that matter might never even disclose their ownership of the book, so you won't be able to track it down in the future.

Which is a long way of saying that sometimes you get the strongest price in a private sale and sometimes you get the strongest price in an auction. 

[rob_react]

On 7/28/2021 at 7:37 PM, sfcityduck said:

I was thinking about the CA and Wonder Woman results and the whole movie hype concept.  Even so, my collecting started in the 70s and my personal "Golden Age" is the early/mid 80s.  Spider-Man was more a corporate symbol (ala Mickey Mouse) than a hot character back then, at least in my mind.  By the late 80s, I was getting out of comics and missed the whole Mcfarlane thing. Wolverine and Batman were probably the two hottest characters for most of the 80s in my recollection.  X-Men generally were Marvel's gravy train back then.  So tastes change over time.  These days I find that various versions of Spider-Man might be more interesting than Peter Parker himself.  But, that's just a matter of taste.  I'm not denying in any way shape or form that AF 15 is considered the most important SA book for Marvel by many.  So I expect it to get a lot of interest.  I'm curious how much.  It's no where near as rare as Action 1 or Detective 27.  And there were a lot of comic collectors picking up that book back in the day.  I've heard a lot of guys who started collecting in the 60s tell me that it took them just a year or two to get the complete Marvel SA.  So I've got to think that other very high grade AF 15s will emerge out of long held collections.  You hear rumors of such books.  High end collectors probably recognize that risk, just as they have to know that there are better ungraded copies of Action 1 and D27 than what's been graded so far.  

This is a whole different story than Captain America and Wonder Woman's respective rises over the past 10 years. Spider-Man has always been one of Marvel's top characters and AF15 has been the top silver age book for decades.  

To be fair (and precise with regards to my previous statement), when I started collecting Amazing Fantasy 15 was only the third most valuable book behind Showcase #4 and Fantastic Four #1, and John Byrne's run on X-Men was the hottest thing in the world so I started from a very similar spot (although Spider-Man was still extremely popular even then.)  So, I started from a very similar place. I did live through (as a comic shop employee) McFarlane's rise and Spider-Man #1, so I saw the beginning of the end for any other Silver Age being top dog, first hand. 

To your points- there are certainly other high grade Amazing Fantasy 15s out there. Are there a lot of 9.8s? I don't think so. Knowing Silver Age Marvels very well, I doubt there were many 9.8s of Amazing Fantasy 15 on the day it was released. The earlier you get with Silver Age Marvel the worse the quality of production is, as a rule.  Is it possible a few 9.8s were out there and a few of those survived in perfect condition? Yes. We know that there are other early Marvel keys in 9.8 (including Amazing Spider-Man #1), so why not AF15?  On the flip side, we also know that the highest graded Hulk #1 is only 9.4, so it's not a given that there's an endless reservoir of Marvel keys out there. 

I think the above is probably too nuanced, however. This is the best available copy of the best Silver Age book and it's been 10 years since a copy this good has been available. I think it'll go bonkers for just that. 

 

 

[Gotham Kid]

On 7/29/2021 at 12:31 AM, tth2 said:

Just to be clear, the Church Tec 27 is not being offered for auction (as far as I know).

That's a shame. Would have been quite a show.

[rob_react]

On 7/28/2021 at 7:31 PM, tth2 said:

Just to be clear, the Church Tec 27 is not being offered for auction (as far as I know).

This is why we can't have nice things. 

[rob_react]

On 7/28/2021 at 9:57 PM, Gotham Kid said:

That's a shame. Would have been quite a show.

The best show!

[Chicago Boy]

On 7/28/2021 at 6:31 PM, tth2 said:

Just to be clear, the Church Tec 27 is not being offered for auction (as far as I know).

Well that settles it.  The AF 15 will be the new record holder for the time being upon hammer.  Any info if the Larson AC 1 will hit the auction block then ?

[Gotham Kid]

Hope at least a scan of the Church 27 will circulate

[rob_react]

On 7/28/2021 at 10:06 PM, Gotham Kid said:

Hope at least a scan of the Church 27 will circulate

[Crowzilla]

On 7/28/2021 at 7:37 PM, sfcityduck said:

I was thinking about the CA and Wonder Woman results and the whole movie hype concept.  Even so, my collecting started in the 70s and my personal "Golden Age" is the early/mid 80s.  Spider-Man was more a corporate symbol (ala Mickey Mouse) than a hot character back then, at least in my mind.  By the late 80s, I was getting out of comics and missed the whole Mcfarlane thing. Wolverine and Batman were probably the two hottest characters for most of the 80s in my recollection.  X-Men generally were Marvel's gravy train back then.  

X-men (and for a time DD) definitely got all the hype, but it was Spidey day-in and day-out that kept the company in the black.  The Wolfman/Stern era was well received, with several classic characters/storylines coming out of it (Black Cat, Madame Web, Hobgoblin, Black Costume), and he anchored three titles for Marvel at the time. It was also by 1985 when AF15 passed FF1 as the most valuable SA comic. Byrne X-men might have burnt holes in dealer's backstock it was so hot, but the entire Spidey back catalog were consistent sellers (saying this having worked for 2 different dealers during this time). 

I set the early "betting line" on the 9.6 AF15 at $2.5million and feel that is a good number where people are almost 50/50 on either side of it. If I was betting, I would still take the over. It will definitely be fun to watch.

[Crowzilla]

On 7/28/2021 at 10:01 PM, Chicago Boy said:

 Any info if the Larson AC 1 will hit the auction block then ?

If he isn't going to sell the Tec27, I don't see why he would sell the Action 1.

Until the Dentist sells (if ever), these two books are the best Pedigree 1-2 punch you could have. I guess close second would be Church Marvel 1 and Allentown Cap 1, but I think these two beat them if all four were auctioned at once.

[woowoo]

On 7/28/2021 at 6:57 PM, rob_react said:

 

To your points- there are certainly other high grade Amazing Fantasy 15s out there. Are there a lot of 9.8s? I don't think so. Knowing Silver Age Marvels very well, I doubt there were many 9.8s of Amazing Fantasy 15 on the day it was released. The earlier you get with Silver Age Marvel the worse the quality of production is, as a rule.  Is it possible a few 9.8s were out there and a few of those survived in perfect condition? Yes. We know that there are other early Marvel keys in 9.8 (including Amazing Spider-Man #1), so why not AF15?  On the flip side, we also know that the highest graded Hulk #1 is only 9.4, so it's not a given that there's an endless reservoir of Marvel keys out there. 

I think the above is probably too nuanced, however. This is the best available copy of the best Silver Age book and it's been 10 years since a copy this good has been available. I think it'll go bonkers for just that. 

 

 

if you watch the DVD in HD they look like 10s

[sfcityduck]

On 7/28/2021 at 7:01 PM, Chicago Boy said:

Well that settles it.  The AF 15 will be the new record holder for the time being upon hammer.  Any info if the Larson AC 1 will hit the auction block then ?

You mean you think it will top $3.25M?

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

On 7/28/2021 at 10:48 PM, woowoo said:

if you watch the DVD in HD they look like 10s

Hey it’s a Spider-Man and Penguin team-up

Edited July 29, 2021 by GreatCaesarsGhost

[Chicago Boy]

On 7/29/2021 at 11:40 AM, sfcityduck said:

You mean you think it will top $3.25M?

I do.  It's a gorgeous copy and although the concerns are valid about a 9.8 or multitude of such in the wings --we aren't there yet. I think Spidey takes the crown

[rob_react]

On 7/29/2021 at 2:31 PM, Chicago Boy said:

I do.  It's a gorgeous copy and although the concerns are valid about a 9.8 or multitude of such in the wings --we aren't there yet. I think Spidey takes the crown

I'm not 100% sold that it will break the record, but... I think the pent up demand will be significant. 

I haven't checked, somehow, is this one of the upgrades or is this the old million dollar copy? 

[lou_fine]

On 7/28/2021 at 4:31 PM, tth2 said:

Just to be clear, the Church Tec 27 is not being offered for auction

Oh, come on now, Tim..........................................................how much longer are you going to keep holding onto this book for?