Heritage says “Hold My Beer”
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88 posts in this topic

On 11/26/2021 at 8:25 PM, szav said:

It may appear that way, but in actuality Heritage is just about to lap CC... again.

We'll see about 2 million, everyone else is calling it, but I personally would have a hard time eating that high a price on a 6.0 so soon after the aforementioned 8.5.

I say this even thinking about the spine/staple issues on the 6.0 rocket copy. 

I think people will be bidding on this 6.0 as if it's "better" than a 6.0 because of the presentation.  I think the 8.5 clearly had a big boon in the rusty staples that scared alot of buyers.  

 

Example.  I wonder how many serious collectors with deep pockets actively seeking an action 1 would have pulled the trigger at 2.5mil on the 8.5.  That's quite a discount from the sale price, but I bet quite a few would have been scared off.  Whereas I wonder how many serious bidders will be looking back at this 6.0 in a few months and whatever it hammers for and be thrilled to pay 70% of the hammer price.

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On 11/27/2021 at 2:13 AM, rob_react said:

And, to be fair to the good people at ComicConnect, they will also have two million dollar books in their current auction, so Heritage is just playing catch-up. 

disagree on the catch-up

HA will offer #1 and #2 whereas CC is offering #1 and #3

Edited by Gotham Kid
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The sale of the 8.5 happened long before so many game changing events. Back then Action ! Was far and away the big big… but even so, back then 2.5 and 3.2 were considered by us all as as high as anyone on the planet would ever pay for a comic.  Then covid made everyone stay home, get bored and start buying stuff they had no time to get worked up into buying when they were commuting, or had jobs!  and there was lots of cash around too… and crypto. now these books are hitting a market after a silver age book sold for 3.6!  And Promise books set records for lots of titles and issues… and genres.  So, let’s see what these books sell for.  Then we can decide if SA has caught GA, or whether AF15 pushed Act and Tec to new heights 

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On 11/26/2021 at 9:53 PM, RustyStaples said:

I say this even thinking about the spine/staple issues on the 6.0 rocket copy. 

I think people will be bidding on this 6.0 as if it's "better" than a 6.0 because of the presentation.  I think the 8.5 clearly had a big boon in the rusty staples that scared alot of buyers.  

 

Example.  I wonder how many serious collectors with deep pockets actively seeking an action 1 would have pulled the trigger at 2.5mil on the 8.5.  That's quite a discount from the sale price, but I bet quite a few would have been scared off.  Whereas I wonder how many serious bidders will be looking back at this 6.0 in a few months and whatever it hammers for and be thrilled to pay 70% of the hammer price.

You mention rusty staples but I wonder if this copy doesn’t also have rust on the bottom staple.    It’s hard to tell but the paper could have rust migration. 

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On 11/27/2021 at 9:01 AM, Bronty said:

You mention rusty staples but I wonder if this copy doesn’t also have rust on the bottom staple.    It’s hard to tell but the paper could have rust migration. 

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Close up of staple area on the interior shot doesn't look bad, but it's a bit hard to tell.  As I stated earlier the white pages are a great bonus which is why they're featuring the interior...but this book looks like a pretty generously graded 6.0.  You've got a one inch spine split on the bottom, what looks like a split going down from the bottom staple too, a few noticeable spine ticks, Chunk out of the top right edge.  The back cover doesn't have anything major that I see.

Great looking book for what it is, but it looks more like a 5.0 to me.  But from what I've seen, even at this level of books people seem to be paying more for the grade than the book, as evidenced by the rusty staple 8.5 etc.

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On 11/27/2021 at 9:39 AM, szav said:

Close up of staple area on the interior shot doesn't look bad, but it's a bit hard to tell.  As I stated earlier the white pages are a great bonus which is why they're featuring the interior...but this book looks like a pretty generously graded 6.0.  You've got a one inch spine split on the bottom, what looks like a split going down from the bottom staple too, a few noticeable spine ticks, Chunk out of the top right edge.  The back cover doesn't have anything major that I see.

Great looking book for what it is, but it looks more like a 5.0 to me.  But from what I've seen, even at this level of books people seem to be paying more for the grade than the book, as evidenced by the rusty staple 8.5 etc.

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The pictures were obviously taken prior to encapsulation.  What concerns me is that the splitting could have been caused by a press.  

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On 11/26/2021 at 8:53 PM, szav said:

The 8.5 (granted a rusty staple 8.5) went for 3.25 mil in April this year...pretty surprised to hear people predicting almost the same for a 6.0.  There's been a good bit of inflation but...for this to get the same or even close to the 8.5 is like saying the value of the book has gone up 2.5 times in that time period.

I may change my tune after we see where the 3.0 lands but I'll be impressed if the 6.0 breaks 2 mil. 

I think you're underestimating inflation/how big of a bubble the hobby is in right now. There are only so many people with the resources to buy a 7-figure book, so that bubble may not extend to those mega-keys, but I personally think that it will. I think that this copy will have no problem hitting $3 million.

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On 11/27/2021 at 11:37 AM, buttock said:

The pictures were obviously taken prior to encapsulation.  What concerns me is that the splitting could have been caused by a press.  

Good point, but I was showing that interior shot more in reference to the possibility of rusty staples/migration.  It is telling that there's no before picture of the cover, and instead they only show off a few interior pics.  You're definitely right there's a real chance that there was pressing damage, just look at the few before and after pics from the Promise collection.  There's also a few areas on this book that look like they could be pressing damage related?  or I dunno, possibly CT scrape?  or just regular old wear, I don't know.  In defense of the book you do have to magnify a good bit to see these.

There's similar looking cuts around the top staple, so its probably not CT scrape...I'm totally speculating.  I will say though it always weirds me out a bit with any book where I can't even see the staples at all.

At any rate, like I said it says 6.0 blue label, so people will surely pay that price for it.

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Edited by szav
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On 11/27/2021 at 12:02 PM, jimbo_7071 said:

There are only so many people with the resources to buy a 7-figure book,

Yeah, that's why I don't see 3 mil.  But there's a lot of newly minted crypto and sports card millionaire speculators so who knows.  Honestly what's holding me back in my expectation was the AF15 9.6 going for 3.5 ml.  I thought it would go for more in the current environment.  Despite being a GA guy, I don't see this book being the same caliber...apples and oranges I know, but that sale reset my expectations on the upper limit for what any comic might bring.

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youre right.  this is only a 6.0 and the AF15 was highest graded.  big difference in bidder excitement and confidence when going after a top graded copy of a key.  We just dont know how to read the minds of these buyers we dont know.  None of us are bidding right?  We missed the chance when the prices were high but so much less than now. 

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On 11/27/2021 at 2:26 PM, szav said:

Yeah, that's why I don't see 3 mil.  But there's a lot of newly minted crypto and sports card millionaire speculators so who knows.  Honestly what's holding me back in my expectation was the AF15 9.6 going for 3.5 ml.  I thought it would go for more in the current environment.  Despite being a GA guy, I don't see this book being the same caliber...apples and oranges I know, but that sale reset my expectations on the upper limit for what any comic might bring.

I think that there are more raw 9.6 AF15s out there—possibly many more. We're still seeing OO GA collections come to market; I won't even venture a guess regarding how many OO SA collections are still out there. Still, you can never underestimate how much some guys are willing to spend in order to have the "best" copy of a mega-key (even though they're only impressing the 0.0001% of the population that actually cares).

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On 11/27/2021 at 1:29 PM, jimbo_7071 said:

I think that there are more raw 9.6 AF15s out there—possibly many more

So We’ve  herd many times .. but during the the last decade since this became a million dollar book, we’ve seen the census go from 3 to 4?

At any rate, I still think it’s a good comparison point for where comic book prices top out now.

If action 1 in 6.0 is a 3 million dollar book, then what is it in 9.0 in your mind? 10-15 million?  I don’t see that, but I’ll be happy if it happens.  Every bonkers sale gives comics more mainstream legitimacy.

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On 11/27/2021 at 4:06 PM, szav said:

So We’ve  herd many times .. but during the the last decade since this became a million dollar book, we’ve seen the census go from 3 to 4?

At any rate, I still think it’s a good comparison point for where comic book prices top out now.

If action 1 in 6.0 is a 3 million dollar book, then what is it in 9.0 in your mind? 10-15 million?  I don’t see that, but I’ll be happy if it happens.  Every bonkers sale gives comics more mainstream legitimacy.

Does a hobby need "legitimacy?" I mean, isn't serving as a diversion—a way to pass the idle hours—the only purpose of a hobby? I'm not sure how legitimacy comes into play. If people are enjoying the hobby, then the hobby is serving the only purpose that any hobby needs to serve. I don't see how it could be more or less legitimate than painting by number, flying model airplanes, knitting, or any other hobby.

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On 11/27/2021 at 2:26 PM, jimbo_7071 said:

Does a hobby need "legitimacy?" I mean, isn't serving as a diversion—a way to pass the idle hours—the only purpose of a hobby? I'm not sure how legitimacy comes into play. If people are enjoying the hobby, then the hobby is serving the only purpose that any hobby needs to serve. I don't see how it could be more or less legitimate than painting by number, flying model airplanes, knitting, or any other hobby.

Maybe what I should have said is that each additional insane sale price gives the high prices more lasting power, and word even travels outside the hobby.  So for books like this I always root for them to go to the moon, whether I think its going to happen or not.

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On 11/27/2021 at 4:21 PM, Bluemedgroup said:

I'm gonna play the under 2 mil.  

I will book that.

With the 7.0 Tec 27 now being a 2.4-2.5 million book or more, Action 1 should easily be $350/pt maybe more

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