Jan Heritage Auction putting up some nice artwork 4 4

[delekkerste]

On 1/3/2022 at 8:28 AM, tth2 said:

Isn't that only because the top cards have actually come up for sale, while the best OA that's known to exist has not?

The highest price for a sports card is $6.6m for a T206, with the second highest price being $5.2m for a 1952 Mickey Mantle.

Those are public auction prices, which would be like saying that the ASM #328 cover was the most expensive piece of comic art up until recently.

It's widely acknowledged that the most expensive sports cards are, at this point, the three PSA 10 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle cards, which would be worth north of $20 million each. I wouldn't be at all surprised if there are other cards worth more than the $6.6 million T-206 Wagner sale price as well. 

The outperformance of cards over the past 2 years has little to do with the caliber of cards hitting the market; it has to do with the fact that cards were mostly in the wilderness in 2019 before a perfect storm of everything hit in 2020 and early 2021 to cause it to become the #1 collectibles vertical by far, with literally billions of dollars per year in annual sales now, to the point where eBay's CEO now has to talk about sports cards at length in interviews, so important has it become to their business, while even dealmaking in the space has gone wild as entire companies have been taken out. 

To a large extent, the huge rise in comic/OA prices and deals like Blackstone's for CGC's parent company, has been our hobby playing catch-up to cards over the past 10 months:

Edited January 3, 2022 by delekkerste

[zhamlau]

When it comes to cratering card values I believe there are three major factors not being discussed.

-The trimming scandal has spooked some buyers out of the “high grade” market. If you can’t trust your psa 10 or BGS 9.5 is truly unrestored flawless why pay the premium?

- Online Sports gambling has exploded in the last year in terms of legal access and ease of use. A lot of the money people were essentially gambling on cards they are now literally gambling on games those cards came from. It’s a more instant fix and has a similar effect. It’s also what’s boosted sagging sports viewing IMO (it’s not that people all of the sudden found they loved “the game” again, it’s now more of them have a financial interest to watch).

- A lot of people were stuck indoors for extended periods recently with everyone in essence isolating to some extent. For the people who generally appreciated experiences over things (like I feel many of the newly minted sports card buyers are) they I think supplemented the former for the latter as they felt shut in and cut off from their former interests. They couldn’t go to games and out to bars to engage in their passion, but card collecting and dealing online gave them some release so they “bought in”.

Now most of those restrictions (internal and external) are gone for them and with it the motivation to participate in the hobby. Less buyers means less absorbers of product and therefore lowered prices as few folks are competing for the same stuff.

[delekkerste]

On 1/3/2022 at 11:47 AM, zhamlau said:

When it comes to cratering card values I believe there are three major factors not being discussed.

-The trimming scandal has spooked some buyers out of the “high grade” market. If you can’t trust your psa 10 or BGS 9.5 is truly unrestored flawless why pay the premium?

- Online Sports gambling has exploded in the last year in terms of legal access and ease of use. A lot of the money people were essentially gambling on cards they are now literally gambling on games those cards came from. It’s a more instant fix and has a similar effect. It’s also what’s boosted sagging sports viewing IMO (it’s not that people all of the sudden found they loved “the game” again, it’s now more of them have a financial interest to watch).

- A lot of people were stuck indoors for extended periods recently with everyone in essence isolating to some extent. For the people who generally appreciated experiences over things (like I feel many of the newly minted sports card buyers are) they I think supplemented the former for the latter as they felt shut in and cut off from their former interests. They couldn’t go to games and out to bars to engage in their passion, but card collecting and dealing online gave them some release so they “bought in”.

Now most of those restrictions (internal and external) are gone for them and with it the motivation to participate in the hobby. Less buyers means less absorbers of product and therefore lowered prices as few folks are competing for the same stuff.

I don't think the trimming scandal has had much effect at all on the overall market, especially not the high-end high grade market which has generally held up better (and, in many cases, is still at/near all-time highs) than the vast majority of lower nd middle-tier cards which have been imploding over the past 9-10 months. 

No doubt that the combination of the re-opening and the soft market has weeded out a ton of lower-end flippers and speculators who are deploying their cash elsewhere.  The end of stimulus checks has also more impacted the lower end of the market - I remember when one round of stimulus payments hit in January, a bunch of the ultra-modern PSA 10 baseball cards (e.g., Tatis, Acuna, etc.) literally jumped up by about 30% in the following week.  Anyone who thinks those payments were too small to make an impact on the card market doesn't know what they're talking about.  I even know someone who used his check to get over the hump on a $20K 1958 Pele Alifabolaget card purchase early in the year. 

Also, let's not forget just plain old supply and demand - for as much as demand increased over the past couple of years, higher prices had people submitting the kitchen sink to the grading companies, with PSA having to shut down its services back in March due to having an 8-figure backlog of cards to grade...the marketplace has been flooded by these cards returning to their owners, which is going to keep happening at an enormous level of volume throughout the first half of this year (I just got 200+ cards back the other day that I submitted just before the March PSA shutdown).

It's going to be interesting to see if both the stocks and cards that have thus far weathered the storm can continue to do so in 2021, as well as the comics and OA.  Also, it wouldn't be correct to say that comics haven't been totally insulated - from what I've seen and heard, some Bronze Age keys have taken a beating since that spike to absurd heights this summer. I can even verify that first-hand as my recent ASM #129 9.8 and GSXM 1 9.6 auction consignments ended waaaaaaaay below peak summer 2021 prices. 

Edited January 3, 2022 by delekkerste

[jjonahjameson11]

Your asm 129 in 9.8 was a blip…

[tth2]

On 1/3/2022 at 9:40 PM, John E. said:

On 1/3/2022 at 9:28 PM, tth2 said:

Certainly if the OA to Action 1, Tec 27, AF 15, etc. existed, they would blow past those amounts.  

Luckily, the complete art for AF15 exists 

Excellent point! (I was thinking of covers) 

[Xatari]

On 12/5/2021 at 12:23 AM, romitaman said:

The consignor contacted me and showed me this and the previous page where spidey turns on the machine to create a new costume......I offered him 250k cash for this page and the previous page and he said Heritage told him he will do better with them so he consigned them.....So we shall see how he made out.

Wowza! The single page is now at $262k!  

[Bronty]

that's amazing.   When Mike mentioned a 250k cash offer, that sure sounded awfully strong.   Surprising to see it already past that amount.

Edited January 4, 2022 by Bronty

[Aahz]

On 1/4/2022 at 8:58 AM, Bronty said:

that's amazing.   When Mike mentioned a 250k cash offer, that sure sounded awfully strong.   Surprising to see it already past that amount.

And without the BP

[Rick2you2]

On 1/4/2022 at 11:21 AM, Heidjer Staecker said:

And without the BP

With BP to get to 264k.

Edited January 5, 2022 by Rick2you2

[alexgross.com]

On 12/31/2021 at 6:05 PM, KingOfRulers said:

It's pretty crazy how expensive that Secret Wars page is now. I wouldn't pay half that amount for the cover to Secret Wars #8. 

i guess it's been forever since i read it, but i'm amazed at just how terrible the artwork is to secret wars #8, esp page 24. my 7 year old can draw better than whoever did that fiasco of a page. i know it is credited to mike zeck and others, but knowing how good zeck is, i'm guessing that it's mostly 'others.' astonishing to me that this terrible page alone will likely exceed 6 figures.

[Rick2you2]

On 1/5/2022 at 9:35 PM, alexgross.com said:

i guess it's been forever since i read it, but i'm amazed at just how terrible the artwork is to secret wars #8, esp page 24. my 7 year old can draw better than whoever did that fiasco of a page. i know it is credited to mike zeck and others, but knowing how good zeck is, i'm guessing that it's mostly 'others.' astonishing to me that this terrible page alone will likely exceed 6 figures.

You’re confusing price and quality.

[KingOfRulers]

On 1/5/2022 at 9:35 PM, alexgross.com said:

i guess it's been forever since i read it, but i'm amazed at just how terrible the artwork is to secret wars #8, esp page 24. my 7 year old can draw better than whoever did that fiasco of a page. i know it is credited to mike zeck and others, but knowing how good zeck is, i'm guessing that it's mostly 'others.' astonishing to me that this terrible page alone will likely exceed 6 figures.

I completely agree. The artwork in Secret Wars is not good. I describe it as anemic and wispy. I love Secret Wars for the story and the concept. As a demonstration of artistic prowess, it fails. Zeck/Beatty and Layton are great artists, so it's confusing as to why the art in Secret Wars is so bad.

[alexgross.com]

On 1/6/2022 at 3:32 AM, Rick2you2 said:

You’re confusing price and quality.

i think the two should be related. like in the case of this wonderful mark rothko painting "red orange yellow" that sold for 88 million dollars a decade ago. one can clearly appreciate the genius behind it. 

[Ecclectica]

On 1/6/2022 at 3:35 AM, alexgross.com said:

i guess it's been forever since i read it, but i'm amazed at just how terrible the artwork is to secret wars #8, esp page 24. my 7 year old can draw better than whoever did that fiasco of a page. i know it is credited to mike zeck and others, but knowing how good zeck is, i'm guessing that it's mostly 'others.' astonishing to me that this terrible page alone will likely exceed 6 figures.

Well, let's say that, in that precise era, anyone, late, who inked the work at 5 in the morning, couldn't have the minimal consistency of, let's say, a Kyle Baker in that same situation...

[KingOfRulers]

On 1/6/2022 at 10:57 AM, alexgross.com said:

i think the two should be related. like in the case of this wonderful mark rothko painting "red orange yellow" that sold for 88 million dollars a decade ago. one can clearly appreciate the genius behind it. 

If putting aside $88M and only looking at the artwork, this one would be put outside on the curb for the next trash day.

[Rick2you2]

On 1/6/2022 at 10:57 AM, alexgross.com said:

i think the two should be related. like in the case of this wonderful mark rothko painting "red orange yellow" that sold for 88 million dollars a decade ago. one can clearly appreciate the genius behind it. 

As with original comic art, price is often more aligned with the artist’s reputation. But, with comic art, the significance of the story and the characters also play huge parts. There are original comic artists who enjoy a greater reputation then some of their specific output, too.

[batman_fan]

On 1/6/2022 at 7:05 AM, KingOfRulers said:

I completely agree. The artwork in Secret Wars is not good. I describe it as anemic and wispy. I love Secret Wars for the story and the concept. As a demonstration of artistic prowess, it fails. Zeck/Beatty and Layton are great artists, so it's confusing as to why the art in Secret Wars is so bad.

Just imagine what could have been had they pulled in Sal Bucema to do Secret Wars 

[bernoulli]

It is interesting how comic book people are insecure enough that "comic book art is real art" is still a sore topic but are quick to s**t on fine art that they don't like or understand. Rothko is great. You don't like his work? Fine. But there is nothing strange about his art yielding U$88 million in action. At least it was not created for children. 

Edited January 7, 2022 by bernoulli

[tth2]

On 1/7/2022 at 9:46 AM, batman_fan said:

Just imagine what could have been had they pulled in Sal Bucema to do Secret Wars 

[Peter G]

On 1/7/2022 at 4:37 AM, bernoulli said:

 At least it was not created for children. 

What's your prejudice against children ?