Police Comics 1 - a book whose time has finally come 0

[zzutak]

Here's a question for y'all: What is the Fair Market Value (FMV) of a book that sold for $51 at a recent public auction?  In other words, what "should be" the winning bid, if another auction of the same issue in the same condition grade (and eye appeal) ended later today at the same auction venue?  Here are the final three bids from the recently closed auction:

• $51.00 = WB (winning bidder)
• $50.00 = UB1 (first under-bidder)
• $28.00 = UB2 (second underbidder)
• $23.00 and less = UB3 thru UB7 (third thru seventh underbidder)

Edited January 3, 2022 by zzutak
UB3 thru UB7 maximum bids added for completeness

[Robot Man]

On 1/3/2022 at 10:55 AM, zzutak said:

Here's a question for y'all: What is the Fair Market Value (FMV) of a book that sold for $51 at a recent public auction?  In other words, what "should be" the winning bid, if another auction of the same issue in the same condition grade (and eye appeal) ended later today at the same auction venue?  Here are the final three bids from the recently closed auction:

• $51.00 = WB (winning bidder)
• $50.00 = UB1 (first under-bidder)
• $28.00 = UB2 (second underbidder)

Probably a slightly ahead of the second underbidder? Two bidders ran it up to at least $50. So the high bidder has one. The pool has narrowed.

Don’t know the book but it seems it might have limited appeal to the general collecting audience…

[adamstrange]

On 1/3/2022 at 2:25 PM, Robot Man said:

Probably a slightly ahead of the second underbidder? Two bidders ran it up to at least $50. So the high bidder has one. The pool has narrowed.

Don’t know the book but it seems it might have limited appeal to the general collecting audience…

This is a hard one to answer with just one auction and three bidders.

• One of the bidders may not show up the next time.
• Some bidders may not have shown up the first time or may not have bid.  On more than one occasion, I've not bid on a lot but I was watching in case there was an opportunity.

 I think you can assign a range of probable value that would narrow with more auctions and more known participant bids.

[zzutak]

Much appreciated.    Here's a second, related question (related in the sense that I'm once again focusing on estimating/predicting FMV from a knowledge of winning bids in past public auctions): What multiple of current guide value would you feel comfortable paying for a CGC-certified mid-grade copy of an issue that has the following five most recent GPA data points?

• CGC 8.5: GPA = 2.12 times then-current, grade-specific guide value (06-2020, OPG #49)
• CGC 6.5: GPA = 1.97 times then-current, grade-specific guide value (11-2020, OPG #50)
• CGC 5.5: GPA = 2.71 times then-current, grade-specific guide value (08-2020, OPG #50)
• CGC 5.0: GPA = 3.05 times then-current, grade-specific guide value (this was a pedigreed specimen, 11-2020, OPG #50)
• CGC 2.5: GPA = 7.60 times then-current, grade-specific guide value (12-2021, OPG #51)

Edited January 3, 2022 by zzutak