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Is CGC trying to lose their dealers as well?
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466 posts in this topic

On 6/10/2022 at 6:41 AM, Bookery said:

At this stage of the game census data is pretty much useless anyway.  Way too many resubs over the years, plus untold copies slabbed through competitors, plus millions of raw comics still out there... census numbers mean nothing.  CGC would save time and effort by eliminating the census and replacing it with a Gerber-style scarcity index, since nobody would be in a better position to have a feel for rarity over the years.  They might only need to update an issue's perceived scarcity once in a great while if availability changed... save a lot of data inputs and still provide a service.

The census is a fantastic tool for probably a majority of books, and particularly for trying to determine top census.  If you're looking at it strictly for a "how many exist" tool, it's not great, but nothing is perfect and it's probably still more accurate than the SI.  

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On 6/10/2022 at 8:41 AM, Bookery said:

At this stage of the game census data is pretty much useless anyway.  Way too many resubs over the years, plus untold copies slabbed through competitors, plus millions of raw comics still out there... census numbers mean nothing.  CGC would save time and effort by eliminating the census and replacing it with a Gerber-style scarcity index, since nobody would be in a better position to have a feel for rarity over the years.  They might only need to update an issue's perceived scarcity once in a great while if availability changed... save a lot of data inputs and still provide a service.

I'd tend to agree with you from an informed, practical standpoint. I don't personally use the census much in regard to my own collection. However, for many sellers, the census is still a valid hype-building tool. You and I, and the other boardies, know how far to trust the information, but there are plenty of suckers who have no clue. Heck, I was scrolling through Clink today, and was surprised by how often they use the "top 3 graded", "highest known in grade" etc in their descriptions in regards to books where it could NOT matter less. So I'd assume it's still an effective selling tool, whether the data has any validity or not.

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On 6/10/2022 at 8:41 AM, Bookery said:

At this stage of the game census data is pretty much useless anyway.  Way too many resubs over the years, plus untold copies slabbed through competitors, plus millions of raw comics still out there... census numbers mean nothing. 

I don't think it's just "at this stage".  It's always been the case.  Based on the reasons you stated, the census can't be anything more than a list of what CGC is aware of.  It's nice of them to do this, but no one should use this info for pricing, scarcity, etc. 

That goes for anyone's census.

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On 6/10/2022 at 3:10 PM, F For Fake said:

"highest known in grade"

"It's the highest known 9.2."

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On 6/10/2022 at 4:10 PM, F For Fake said:

I'd tend to agree with you from an informed, practical standpoint. I don't personally use the census much in regard to my own collection. However, for many sellers, the census is still a valid hype-building tool. You and I, and the other boardies, know how far to trust the information, but there are plenty of suckers who have no clue. Heck, I was scrolling through Clink today, and was surprised by how often they use the "top 3 graded", "highest known in grade" etc in their descriptions in regards to books where it could NOT matter less. So I'd assume it's still an effective selling tool, whether the data has any validity or not.

The data has validity for highest graded books simply because people are not likely to crack and re-sub those ones. Why would anyone crack an re-sub one of the highest graded copies of a book? The main limitations are that not all graded books are done by CGC, not all books are graded, and more books are being graded daily. So your 1 of 3 highest graded copies could potentially be 1 of 5 next year and 1 of 7 the year after. 

As you go down the grading funnel you do absolutely run into problems with the census overestimating the number of books out there. But IMO those counts matter less unless you are dealing with scarce books. So while I do look at the census I don't remember ever caring how many 9.4 copies of a bronze age key are out there. I typically check the number of 9.8 copies are out there and the total number of copies across all grades (understanding the former is more accurate than the latter). All sorts of imperfect data can be used if the limitations are understood. 

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