How was the San Francisco show today? 2 2

[Rick2you2]

On 3/6/2022 at 11:37 AM, exitmusicblue said:

No one's "fault," I dare say.  Best case outcomes I've seen are where folks in dipping their toes -- whether they acquire or not -- start with the big names they know of, then as they fall in love with the hobby (vs. just thinking about the names/$$/etc.), expand their horizons.

 

“Fault” was a poor choice of words. In this case, however, ignorance is not bliss. Just an empty bank account.

[batman_fan]

The hobby definitely moves fast.  I remember looking at stuff I wanted and thinking it was way too expensive.  Todays price it looks like it was being given away.  I think the fear of "overpaying" holds people back from jumping in but I would say if you are buying mainstream stuff and can afford the piece so you can hold it for 5 years or more you will be fine.  The collapse of the market has been predicted for decades and hasn't happened yet.  Examples of stuff that would be safe buys IMHO

1.  McSpidey pages with Spiderman in them

2.  Ditko Spiderman

3.  Romita Spiderman (really any nice Spiderman panel, Splash, or cover by anyone)

4.  Venom pages

5.  All Batman work

6.  A ton of other stuff

[Xatari]

I’ve heard Wolverine with claws out and “Snikt” may also be fairly sustainable. 

[Latverian Tourism Board]

On 3/6/2022 at 10:36 AM, Xatari said:

No conflict at all. Never once have we been a closed group and have regularly put it out there to be open and welcoming. You can verify this in both interviews I’ve done for CAF in which I’ve blatantly discussed pieces we have purchased with the help of working together and invited any viewer to reach out if they’d like to be a part of a group. 

Clearly my previous comment was tongue in cheek in the same way we would never stand in a circle as we prefer the rhombus.  Rhombus jerk, my friend.

Love this. I often mark pieces on people’s Want Lists and message them the details if they want to pursue them. I’m heartened to hear others share the same collecting concept. I was a comic and toy collector that switched over 6-7 years ago, and was a little surprised by the differences in the communities, and how much more competitive it is here. I probably shouldn’t have been, considering the one-of-a-kind nature of OA, but I was new.  🤷‍♂️ Personally, I’d like to see it more as you describe.

Making connections and reaching out is the name of the game now, imo. Auctions can work for high-end stuff…if you have a big budget and balls/ovaries of adamantium. I bought a McFarlane Spidey in a private sale just a couple weeks ago. Heck, nearly all of my purchases over the two years have been a few dealers and all private sales. I think the tricks are:

1) Be nice! Manners get you everywhere. 

2) Offer at auction price averages. That might seem high, but will always be slightly lagging value since those values are increasing auction to auction for now. This also means you should be conversant with a market before you offer.

3) Don’t use tactics, and respect their art and time. It’s their art, and their right to say no. Don’t neg…

4) End as positively as you begin. You might approach them for a deal again, and it always pays to be nice, anyway. 
 

Might seem weird to drop this in the auction thread, but I’m weird. Sue me!

[Rick2you2]

On 3/6/2022 at 12:37 PM, batman_fan said:

The hobby definitely moves fast.  I remember looking at stuff I wanted and thinking it was way too expensive.  Todays price it looks like it was being given away.  I think the fear of "overpaying" holds people back from jumping in but I would say if you are buying mainstream stuff and can afford the piece so you can hold it for 5 years or more you will be fine.  The collapse of the market has been predicted for decades and hasn't happened yet.  Examples of stuff that would be safe buys IMHO

1.  McSpidey pages with Spiderman in them

2.  Ditko Spiderman

3.  Romita Spiderman (really any nice Spiderman panel, Splash, or cover by anyone)

4.  Venom pages

5.  All Batman work

6.  A ton of other stuff

It probably is “safe” in the sense that it won’t go down in price (at least for a while). But what triggered my comment was whether “good” was being price out of the market. For those who care to really study the stuff, not at all. 

[batman_fan]

On 3/6/2022 at 11:39 AM, Rick2you2 said:

It probably is “safe” in the sense that it won’t go down in price (at least for a while). But what triggered my comment was whether “good” was being price out of the market. For those who care to really study the stuff, not at all. 

Why do you think it will go down?  These have been solid purchases for decades.  What dynamic will reverse this trend?

[Rick2you2]

On 3/6/2022 at 2:37 PM, batman_fan said:

Why do you think it will go down?  These have been solid purchases for decades.  What dynamic will reverse this trend?

Age. And aging out. When I was a kid Indian Head pennies were a hot coin collectible. Not anymore. As has been mentioned by others, Golden Age stuff isn’t holding value (with some presumed exceptions). So, within the subset of the hobby, things that aren’t fresh in the minds of readers will either drop relative to other pieces or in absolute terms (directly or by hidden discount). If Peanuts weren’t reprinted and able to maintain a current readership, I think it would slump. Then, there is the question of the whole hobby. If readership drops, so will future buyer’s interest in any books. The high end spenders of today still get the benefit of publicity and nostalgia. 

[Timely]

With higher prices, that means collections that would have had 50 great pieces at past pricing will now be collections that only have 10 great pieces. The same amount of money was spent, but less pieces were bought as each single piece cost 5 times what they used to. 

[batman_fan]

On 3/6/2022 at 2:03 PM, Rick2you2 said:

Age. And aging out. When I was a kid Indian Head pennies were a hot coin collectible. Not anymore. As has been mentioned by others, Golden Age stuff isn’t holding value (with some presumed exceptions). So, within the subset of the hobby, things that aren’t fresh in the minds of readers will either drop relative to other pieces or in absolute terms (directly or by hidden discount). If Peanuts weren’t reprinted and able to maintain a current readership, I think it would slump. Then, there is the question of the whole hobby. If readership drops, so will future buyer’s interest in any books. The high end spenders of today still get the benefit of publicity and nostalgia. 

don't know about Indian Head pennies but I find US graded coins real expensive.  I was looking at buying Buffalo Nickels and they are crazy expensive.

For GA (which is where I spend a lot of my $), prices are up on almost everything.  Very little is down (I can't think of anything down).

SA across the board has doubled over the past year.

Peanuts is up almost 2x in the last year or so, I am priced out off the market now.  Stuff that would have sold for $15k to $20k two years ago are $30k to $50k

Assuming readership drives new collector is a fallacy IMO, the younger generation can barely read a ten word post on instagram.  Everything is driven by video.  The Marvel movies are huge, Batman will drive new fans, Peanuts on Apple breeds a whole new fan base.  Star Wars has huge for a fan base hence the insane prices for graded toys, artwork, etc.

[Rick2you2]

On 3/6/2022 at 4:27 PM, batman_fan said:

don't know about Indian Head pennies but I find US graded coins real expensive.  I was looking at buying Buffalo Nickels and they are crazy expensive.

For GA (which is where I spend a lot of my $), prices are up on almost everything.  Very little is down (I can't think of anything down).

SA across the board has doubled over the past year.

Peanuts is up almost 2x in the last year or so, I am priced out off the market now.  Stuff that would have sold for $15k to $20k two years ago are $30k to $50k

Assuming readership drives new collector is a fallacy IMO, the younger generation can barely read a ten word post on instagram.  Everything is driven by video.  The Marvel movies are huge, Batman will drive new fans, Peanuts on Apple breeds a whole new fan base.  Star Wars has huge for a fan base hence the insane prices for graded toys, artwork, etc.

I thought you were asking over time? Over the next 5 years, things will probably just march along. Maybe at a slower pace, but not if people are worried about inflation. Collectibles are a hedge against it. 

When you were referring to GA, did you mean art or books?

[batman_fan]

On 3/6/2022 at 4:28 PM, Rick2you2 said:

I thought you were asking over time? Over the next 5 years, things will probably just march along. Maybe at a slower pace, but not if people are worried about inflation. Collectibles are a hedge against it. 

When you were referring to GA, did you mean art or books?

I meant 5 years +

GA I meant the comics, prices are on fire.  GA artwork is also a lot higher.

[Timely]

On 3/6/2022 at 3:27 PM, batman_fan said:

don't know about Indian Head pennies but I find US graded coins real expensive.  I was looking at buying Buffalo Nickels and they are crazy expensive.

For GA (which is where I spend a lot of my $), prices are up on almost everything.  Very little is down (I can't think of anything down).

SA across the board has doubled over the past year.

Peanuts is up almost 2x in the last year or so, I am priced out off the market now.  Stuff that would have sold for $15k to $20k two years ago are $30k to $50k

Assuming readership drives new collector is a fallacy IMO, the younger generation can barely read a ten word post on instagram.  Everything is driven by video.  The Marvel movies are huge, Batman will drive new fans, Peanuts on Apple breeds a whole new fan base.  Star Wars has huge for a fan base hence the insane prices for graded toys, artwork, etc.

I’m guessing westerns are down, or at the very least, not going up a red (Indian) cent.

[batman_fan]

On 3/6/2022 at 5:13 PM, Timely said:

I’m guessing westerns are down, or at the very least, not going up a red (Indian) cent.

If the prices on Promise copies of westerns is any indicator, I would say westerns are alive and well.

 

[Rick2you2]

On 3/6/2022 at 6:33 PM, batman_fan said:

I meant 5 years +

GA I meant the comics, prices are on fire.  GA artwork is also a lot higher.

More pointedly, the focus on price is what I am trying to get away from. Is newer art so lousy (not), that the market prices make sense in terms of comparable quality? Should younger collectors be discouraged on a theory that the old stuff is the best, and hoard their thruppances for a dull Byrne page rather than enjoy the newer crop of artists, in particular, on books they read? I don’t think so. Logically, that’s the greatest danger to the current market structure. 
 

[batman_fan]

On 3/6/2022 at 5:56 PM, Rick2you2 said:

More pointedly, the focus on price is what I am trying to get away from. Is newer art so lousy (not), that the market prices make sense in terms of comparable quality? Should younger collectors be discouraged on a theory that the old stuff is the best, and hoard their thruppances for a dull Byrne page rather than enjoy the newer crop of artists, in particular, on books they read? I don’t think so. Logically, that’s the greatest danger to the current market structure. 
 

I think people should buy what they want.

[Rick2you2]

On 3/6/2022 at 8:06 PM, batman_fan said:

I think people should buy what they want.

So do I. But should potential newbies be discouraged from buying anything because they don’t have the money for the old expensive stuff?

[Timely]

On 3/6/2022 at 6:29 PM, batman_fan said:

If the prices on Promise copies of westerns is any indicator, I would say westerns are alive and well.

 

I don’t think they are an indicator. I think people are interested in Promise books and don’t want to spend $25k to have a good one, so they are settling on spending a little extra on a western just to get a book from the collection.

[Xatari]

On 3/6/2022 at 4:56 PM, Rick2you2 said:

More pointedly, the focus on price is what I am trying to get away from. Is newer art so lousy (not), that the market prices make sense in terms of comparable quality? Should younger collectors be discouraged on a theory that the old stuff is the best, and hoard their thruppances for a dull Byrne page rather than enjoy the newer crop of artists, in particular, on books they read? I don’t think so. Logically, that’s the greatest danger to the current market structure. 
 

There really are a ton of folks who collect more modern pieces, but they are not as visible. What I found when I came into this hobby is the most visible and vocal “hubs” of collecting… CAF videos,  dealers, podcasts, etc, tend to be created by collectors of the same age range. It’s not a surprise that it feels like some of the aforementioned niches of the hobby feel elevated given these are the pieces that are most celebrated and promoted most frequently.

I believe this is a season in the hobby,  and it will inevitably shift once certain collectors begin to “age out” and others come into more disposable income. Every collecting generation has their characters that feel most relevant and important but that is a moving target that changes with time. 

Characters like Echo, Yelena, Kate Bishop, Riri, America Chavez, Gwen and even Miles to some degree etc were not on most collectors’ radar a few years ago but now have increasing importance and cultural significance because of what Disney/Marvel are doing. 

A lot of these pages are still very affordable. I helped a new collector grab a good chunk of America #1 about a year ago, so this is a great place for new collectors to start and begin thinking about the future.

[exitmusicblue]

The one common denominator in art -- any art -- is that elusive, so utterly subjective (and yet at a certain point mass consensus-driven) attribute we call brilliance, genius, quality, etc.

It's why Leonardo is still remembered.

It's why certain GA artists' work remains on the rise even as many others fade into forgetful oblivion.

Whether art is vintage or modern, that North Star remains.

[vodou]

On 3/6/2022 at 9:19 PM, Xatari said:

There really are a ton of folks who collect more modern pieces, but they are not as visible.

Who under the age of 50 hangs around Old Folks Homes any more than they have to? (e.g. their parents "make" them visit their grandparents once a month...) Young people hang out wherever young people hang out. In life; in hobbies.

On 3/6/2022 at 9:19 PM, Xatari said:

I believe this is a season in the hobby,  and it will inevitably shift once certain collectors begin to “age out” and others come into more disposable income. Every collecting generation has their characters that feel most relevant and important but that is a moving target that changes with time. 

Yes, except...

On 3/6/2022 at 9:19 PM, Xatari said:

Characters like Echo, Yelena, Kate Bishop, Riri, America Chavez, Gwen and even Miles to some degree etc were not on most collectors’ radar a few years ago but now have increasing importance and cultural significance because of what Disney/Marvel are doing. 

Assuming people are still "investing" (mentally, collecting, and actually putting down more than pocket change) in new Big Two characters/titles/whatever, it's not hard to see that the art will come into it's own in time. But what happens to the older art (and comics) that the newer (hot!) stuff is founded upon? It slows, okay, but does it die on the vine at some point? (Or is there just infinite dollars chasing finite examples...infinitely?) How could it...if the new hot! stuff is built upon it (in the "Universe" fashion)? For four decades "new" art collectors have bought up their own era stuff and then collected backwards but now 2x SA superhero is so high...that's getting really, really hard to do on less than a serious six figure annual income (heck even "collecting back to 80s" is getting pretty tough for more than a few examples a year for most of modest means/earning power). So..? Is it possible we see a world where Liefeld New Mutants covers go for $1m but Kirby FF covers "only" go for 1.5m? Or maybe even "only" $650k? Before you scoff...put your own numbers up instead but at similar ratios (to keep the point the same) and...can that happen? Can Disney/Marvel still be "loved" but new "same old, same old" be worth the same or even more than "same old old"?

Otherwise, if "new" Big Two is a relative flash in the pan of inflationary excess (in general) then it's much easier to see it all collapsing "whenever" the whole edifice propped up by artificial liquidity dries up. That's easy, it's the previous paragragh that makes me think, and I could argue either side of it.