Heritage June Auction 7 7

[Bronty]

On 4/17/2022 at 4:14 PM, comix4fun said:

The $657k a nice over/under to use because, well, it's just as good as any other number. The fact that it's a big healthy number makes the guessing more fun I suppose. 
 

exactly

[Bronty]

On 4/17/2022 at 4:14 PM, comix4fun said:

I like playing the "Cross the Streams" game with If Lee is $X then Miller should be $Y and then McFarlane is $Z. I am not sure they are the same buying pool, or collecting pool, or bidding pool but what else are we going to talk about if they aren't. 
 

exactly right  

[J.Sid]

On 4/17/2022 at 11:32 AM, comix4fun said:

I have no problem with people using $300k, $500k, $750k, or whatever as their guess. 

But none of us should really be using $657k, given all the extraordinarily specific and subjective reasons behind that sale and that number, as a sales comp for the greater McFarlane market....both then and now. 

To analogize to the real estate market. If a company needs to buy a specific parcel of land, for very subjective reasons, and in a specific location and pays double, triple, quadruple what any other comparable parcel has sold for in that geographic area or in that near term, it is considered an outlier to be distinguished and not relied upon as true FMV when valuing other parcels that do not have those subjective and individual reasons that lead to the outsized and incongruous final cost on the outlier sale. 

When there are specific and known reasons for a sale that seems bananas high to the outside world it makes sense to note them and leave that sale to the side as a comparable. 

Still, this cover can and likely will sell for gigantic money. What happened with the ASM 328 being an interesting anecdote in art sales history but clearly not a logical comp. to anything that came before that sale or since. 

So are you guessing over or under 657? 

[Timely]

The fact that it is sideways art, does that help it or hurt it?

[tth2]

On 4/18/2022 at 2:32 AM, comix4fun said:

But none of us should really be using $657k, given all the extraordinarily specific and subjective reasons behind that sale and that number, as a sales comp for the greater McFarlane market....both then and now. 

Doesn't a final auction result depend not only on what the winning bidder bids, but also what the underbidder bids? 

[tth2]

On 4/18/2022 at 2:32 AM, comix4fun said:

To analogize to the real estate market. If a company needs to buy a specific parcel of land, for very subjective reasons, and in a specific location and pays double, triple, quadruple what any other comparable parcel has sold for in that geographic area or in that near term, it is considered an outlier to be distinguished and not relied upon as true FMV when valuing other parcels that do not have those subjective and individual reasons that lead to the outsized and incongruous final cost on the outlier sale. 

When there are specific and known reasons for a sale that seems bananas high to the outside world it makes sense to note them and leave that sale to the side as a comparable. 

Still, this cover can and likely will sell for gigantic money. What happened with the ASM 328 being an interesting anecdote in art sales history but clearly not a logical comp. to anything that came before that sale or since. 

Chris, for all of us that are part of the great unwashed, all we can do is rely on a publicly posted number in the absence of more information that explains why we should not rely on the publicly posted number.  

As for it being such an obvious outlier that we should disregard it for benchmark purposes, was it really?  After all, even at the time there would be numerous comments to the effect of "Sure it's a record price, for a public sale".  Now, whether this was because the various posters actually knew of higher private sales, or because various posters made such comments without actual knowledge because they wanted to appear as if they were knowledgeable insiders, or both, I don't know, because I'm part of the great unwashed.  

[comix4fun]

On 4/17/2022 at 10:07 PM, tth2 said:

Doesn't a final auction result depend not only on what the winning bidder bids, but also what the underbidder bids? 

It also depends on what the underbidder bids and what the underbidder knows about the overbidder and the very public and long standing search for this cover and the explicit lengths they stated they would go to in order to own this cover....YES. 

That's one of the way you get a massive auction result and an outlier sale. When you have someone willing to put the pedal through the floor and an entire hobby (at the time) that knew as much, you're setting up a set of circumstances ripe for extraordinary exuberance in bidding for a myriad of reasons. And a final result that bears no rational relationship to reality. 

[tth2]

On 4/18/2022 at 11:57 AM, comix4fun said:

It also depends on what the underbidder bids and what the underbidder knows about the overbidder and the very public and long standing search for this cover and the explicit lengths they stated they would go to in order to own this cover....YES. 

That's one of the way you get a massive auction result and an outlier sale. When you have someone willing to put the pedal through the floor and an entire hobby (at the time) that knew as much, you're setting up a set of circumstances ripe for extraordinary exuberance in bidding for a myriad of reasons. And a final result that bears no rational relationship to reality. 

That's a very risky punishment bid! 

[delekkerste]

Given that HA's BP has increased from 19.5% to 20% since the ASM #328 cover sold, the same hammer will yield a $660K price this time around. 

The ASM #328 was a crazy outlier in 2012. While I don't think it necessarily has great value as a comp (it's both a decade old and was an outlier at the time), there have been enough huge OA sales over the past year to think that $660K or higher is not out of the question for a great McASM/McSpidey cover.

I think the reality is that, in this market, a piece like this could hammer anywhere from $300K to $1M+. The probability distribution probably peaks somewhere in the $300-500K range (without the juice) but there's a long right tail for sure.  

I don't know if it really will break the ASM #328 record or not (I won't be surprised if it does, but, if it "only" winds up with a 4 or 5 handle, I won't be shocked either). I was basically throwing a Baby Ruth bar into the swimming pool to see how people would react.  

[Bronty]

And here I thought you might know something we didn’t   So we are all agreed, somewhere between 250k and 1.5m. 

[BCarter27]

On 4/18/2022 at 10:30 AM, delekkerste said:

there's a long right tail for sure

Pre-2020, you could see big swings under 100K, but there seemed to be some price compression up above 100K where the air got thinner. That seems to have completely gone away, and all of the "if this is x, that should be y" calculus that ruled the five-figure market seems to be reaching further upward.

[comix4fun]

On 4/18/2022 at 10:09 AM, Bronty said:

And here I thought you might know something we didn’t   So we are all agreed, somewhere between 250k and 1.5m. 

I thought all min/max ranges on premium pieces now have to include the two Secret Wars 8 "alien goo" on the low end and "half splash-flashback" on the high as their lower and upper limits...

So...it's somewhere between $288k and $3.36 million. That's probably a good bet right there. 

[RICKYBOBBY]

I knew I saw the sale of ASM 328 from comicconnect somewhere. Was on a banner on CAF!

[Xatari]

There have been several mentions of outlying circumstances around the ASM328 cover. Would anyone be so kind as to elaborate for us newer folk?

[TeddieMercede]

Killing Joke Pg 7 should be even more fun. 

https://comics.ha.com/itm/original-comic-art/brian-bolland-batman-the-killing-joke-story-page-7-original-art-dc-1989-/p/7274-103009.s?ic4=GalleryView-ShortDescription-071515

[tth2]

On 4/19/2022 at 11:31 AM, TeddieMercede said:

Killing Joke Pg 7 should be even more fun. 

https://comics.ha.com/itm/original-comic-art/brian-bolland-batman-the-killing-joke-story-page-7-original-art-dc-1989-/p/7274-103009.s?ic4=GalleryView-ShortDescription-071515

I was just thinking the other day that KJ had not joined the craziness yet! 

[jjonahjameson11]

So, not one, but two Killing Joke pages added to the auction yesterday, plus a DKR page,Miller DD 167 p2&3, a Watchmen page, McSpidey #1 splash, and a Sienkiewicz Elektra Assassin splash. 

[delekkerste]

On 4/18/2022 at 11:31 PM, TeddieMercede said:

Killing Joke Pg 7 should be even more fun. 

https://comics.ha.com/itm/original-comic-art/brian-bolland-batman-the-killing-joke-story-page-7-original-art-dc-1989-/p/7274-103009.s?ic4=GalleryView-ShortDescription-071515

On 4/19/2022 at 4:44 AM, jjonahjameson11 said:

So, not one, but two Killing Joke pages added to the auction yesterday, plus a DKR page,Miller DD 167 p2&3, a Watchmen page, McSpidey #1 splash, and a Sienkiewicz Elektra Assassin splash. 

Two words:

SHRIMP PAGES!!

[Bronty]

I find it interesting cruising the make an offers.   Its usually lowballs and people trying to catch old owners who don't realize what prices are now napping; the amount of offers spike during periods of escalating prices.    Nice McVenom panel page here with a 150k offer, which probably means the real value now is 250 or 300.

Todd McFarlane Amazing Spider-Man #317 Story Page 19 Venom Original Art (Marvel, 1989)....

$46,605.00

Nov 18 2017

$150,000

Pending

Apr 18 2022

[malvin]

On 4/19/2022 at 7:56 AM, Bronty said:

I find it interesting cruising the make an offers.   Its usually lowballs and people trying to catch old owners who don't realize what prices are now napping; the amount of offers spike during periods of escalating prices.    Nice McVenom panel page here with a 150k offer, which probably means the real value now is 250 or 300.

Todd McFarlane Amazing Spider-Man #317 Story Page 19 Venom Original Art (Marvel, 1989)....

$46,605.00

Nov 18 2017

$150,000

Pending

Apr 18 2022

Yeah, I was getting a ton of lowball offers even on my lower end pieces.  I think for the first little while I was making stupid counter offers but eventually just turned off that feature.

Malvin