Heritage June Auction 7 7

[glendgold]

Octopus bukkake shot through a storm of confetti.

But I'm not McFarlane's audience, I guess.

[PGEAR12]

On 4/14/2022 at 9:30 AM, tfish1 said:

ill take the under

Me too.

[comix4fun]

On 4/14/2022 at 1:22 PM, cloud cloddie said:

The cover’s a bit busy, but not a fan of the exaggerated anatomy of the splash. One head bow and we’re in xxx territory…

Sure it's a little busy....but Todd really rewards his fans with those little extras if they take the time to look closely.

 

[Kevin76]

On 4/14/2022 at 8:10 AM, delekkerste said:

That's gonna smash the ASM #328 cover's public McFarlane sale record.

Nope it won't.  

[Kevin76]

On 4/14/2022 at 3:44 PM, glendgold said:

Octopus bukkake shot through a storm of confetti.

But I'm not McFarlane's audience, I guess.

he drew the coolest looking spider-man ever, more so than Ditko and Romita even though they are a better artist than Mcfarlane, He'd even tell you himself that they are

[jjonahjameson11]

I realize the market is very volatile at the moment, but I’m curious as to what folks think the McSpidey 16 cover will go for?

[tth2]

On 4/15/2022 at 12:30 AM, J.Sid said:

 

• As things are prone to go in this hobby, many McFarlane collectors see what is happening with Jim Lee and Erik Larsen auctions and behind the scenes have been commenting that by comparison, McFarlane art (historically much more expensive than Larsen/Lee) now seems extremely undervalued.

I was actually thinking the other day that there has not been any prime McSpidey art on Heritage in a while.

[Timely]

On 4/14/2022 at 6:28 PM, jjonahjameson11 said:

I realize the market is very volatile at the moment, but I’m curious as to what folks think the McSpidey 16 cover will go for?

300k + juice.

[Bronty]

I’ll take the over on that

[J.Sid]

On 4/16/2022 at 7:44 AM, Bronty said:

I’ll take the over on that

I'm with you. Definitely taking the over on 300k.

I'd personally put the over/under at 657k, the figure from 2012. I kinda suspect it will go over, but who knows.

You used to be able to somewhat accurately guess a range, +/- 15%. Not so much these days.

[jjonahjameson11]

On 4/16/2022 at 10:19 AM, Timely said:

300k + juice.

Umm, not a chance that it will go that low

Edited April 16, 2022 by jjonahjameson11

[stinkininkin]

On 4/16/2022 at 7:19 AM, Timely said:

300k + juice.

Not in my wheelhouse as a collector, but that seems like a crazy low number to me. I'll take the over for sure.

[Timely]

On 4/16/2022 at 11:07 AM, stinkininkin said:

Not in my wheelhouse as a collector, but that seems like a crazy low number to me. I'll take the over for sure.

The fact that it looks like the entire book is up for auction, collectors will have a lot of choices. One already said they prefer the splash to the cover. 300k plus juice plus tax is actually a 400k purchase!  I could be off, probably am. I guess we’ll see.

[stinkininkin]

On 4/16/2022 at 10:55 AM, Timely said:

The fact that it looks like the entire book is up for auction, collectors will have a lot of choices. One already said they prefer the splash to the cover. 300k plus juice plus tax is actually a 400k purchase!  I could be off, probably am. I guess we’ll see.

I thought you were saying 300k includes the juice (the hammer price is kind of irrelevant to me, it's the total cost to the buyer that matters). That said, I'll sill take the over. Of course, I've never even contemplated buying a McFarlane in my life, so what do I know?

[Bronty]

On 4/16/2022 at 1:55 PM, Timely said:

The fact that it looks like the entire book is up for auction, collectors will have a lot of choices. One already said they prefer the splash to the cover. 300k plus juice plus tax is actually a 400k purchase!  I could be off, probably am. I guess we’ll see.

300 plus juice is only 360.   Can’t count the tax as it may not apply depending on the buyer.  

I don’t think having the whole book for sale will hurt the cover.    Having the whole TOS59 story available certainly didn’t hurt the TOS59 splash…

Edited April 17, 2022 by Bronty

[tth2]

On 4/17/2022 at 12:07 AM, stinkininkin said:

On 4/16/2022 at 10:19 PM, Timely said:

300k + juice.

Not in my wheelhouse as a collector, but that seems like a crazy low number to me. I'll take the over for sure.

It'll probably be at $300k after the first few days of online bidding.

[batman_fan]

This page is amazing

[comix4fun]

On 4/16/2022 at 9:54 AM, J.Sid said:

I'm with you. Definitely taking the over on 300k.

I'd personally put the over/under at 657k, the figure from 2012. I kinda suspect it will go over, but who knows.

You used to be able to somewhat accurately guess a range, +/- 15%. Not so much these days.

I have no problem with people using $300k, $500k, $750k, or whatever as their guess. 

But none of us should really be using $657k, given all the extraordinarily specific and subjective reasons behind that sale and that number, as a sales comp for the greater McFarlane market....both then and now. 

To analogize to the real estate market. If a company needs to buy a specific parcel of land, for very subjective reasons, and in a specific location and pays double, triple, quadruple what any other comparable parcel has sold for in that geographic area or in that near term, it is considered an outlier to be distinguished and not relied upon as true FMV when valuing other parcels that do not have those subjective and individual reasons that lead to the outsized and incongruous final cost on the outlier sale. 

When there are specific and known reasons for a sale that seems bananas high to the outside world it makes sense to note them and leave that sale to the side as a comparable. 

Still, this cover can and likely will sell for gigantic money. What happened with the ASM 328 being an interesting anecdote in art sales history but clearly not a logical comp. to anything that came before that sale or since. 

Edited April 17, 2022 by comix4fun

[Bronty]

On 4/17/2022 at 2:32 PM, comix4fun said:

I have no problem with people using $300k, $500k, $750k, or whatever as their guess. 

But none of us should really be using $657k, given all the extraordinarily specific and subjective reasons behind that sale and that number, as a sales comp for the greater McFarlane market....both then and now. 

To analogize to the real estate market. If a company needs to buy a specific parcel of land, for very subjective reasons, and in a specific location and pays double, triple, quadruple what any other comparable parcel has sold for in that geographic area or in that near term, it is considered an outlier to be distinguished and not relied upon as true FMV when valuing other parcels that do not have those subjective and individual reasons that lead to the outsized and incongruous final cost on the outlier sale. 

When there are specific and known reasons for a sale that seems bananas high to the outside world it makes sense to note them and leave that sale to the side as a comparable. 

Still, this cover can and likely will sell for gigantic money. What happened with the ASM 328 being an interesting anecdote in art sales history but clearly not a logical comp. to anything that came before that sale or since. 

Ehh, its not a logical comp, but its a fun one.    

Sure, it was a specific parcel of land in your analogy, but it was also ten years ago.  

It also, to me, feels like about the right number for an over/under.    Not because of any logical reason tied to that sale, but more from the POV that if Lee x-men pages can get 180 and 360k and the Lee Xmen 1 cover get 2.5m, well jeez...    657k doesn't seem unreasonable for a really nice mcfarlane.     I don't know if it goes for 250,500 or 1m but some of those 90s prices make past mcfarlane comps look cheap.

Bagley and Larsen PANEL PAGES are in some cases getting 50k or close to it.    A cover like this one should be worth many multiples of those Bagley, Larsen, or even Lee panel pages.    

Now, who knows what happens on auction day, but its McFarlane, a big clean Spidey and the X-men all one on cover, it does tick a lot of boxes.

Edited April 17, 2022 by Bronty

[comix4fun]

On 4/17/2022 at 2:53 PM, Bronty said:

Ehh, its not a logical comp, but its a fun one.    

Sure, it was a specific parcel of land in your analogy, but it was also ten years ago.  

It also, to me, feels like about the right number for an over/under.    Not because of any logical reason tied to that sale, but more from the POV that if Lee x-men pages can get 180 and 360k and the Lee Xmen 1 cover get 2.5m, well jeez...    657k doesn't seem unreasonable for a really nice mcfarlane.     I don't know if it goes for 250,500 or 1m but some of those 90s prices make past mcfarlane comps look cheap.

Bagley and Larsen PANEL PAGES are in some cases getting 50k or close to it.    A cover like this one should be worth many multiples of those Bagley, Larsen, or even Lee panel pages.    

Now, who knows what happens on auction day, but its McFarlane, a big clean Spidey and the X-men all one on cover, it does tick a lot of boxes.

Right, so it being a factual outlier (making it irrelevant) is now a "stale" timing irrelevancy to boot.  
I think the most interesting part of the discussion is how long it's been since any really good McSpidey cover has hit the market. Not so much that it points to any specific number or that it makes the ASM 328 more congruous, but that the public sale auction demand is so pent up that it might make for another irrational result. 

Next up after this is an A or B level Miller DKR page. It's been a good amount of time since one of those has hit the block and the numbers being thrown around privately to owners tells me that there's a big pent up demand there too and the numbers will be eye-popping to whomever gets their big page up there first ...if they can part with the page at all. 

I like playing the "Cross the Streams" game with If Lee is $X then Miller should be $Y and then McFarlane is $Z. I am not sure they are the same buying pool, or collecting pool, or bidding pool but what else are we going to talk about if they aren't? But the 90's in general are having their day on the block, and our jaws haven't been picked up off the ground from the last auction yet, I am sure the McSpidey final will be spit-take inducing regardless. I just hate that the $657k is being used as a starting point when there were clearly specific circumstances for that specific cover at that moment (that were far too well known to far too many people at that time) that resulted in that number being what it was. Everything else you noted is far more relevant for sure.

The $657k a nice over/under to use because, well, it's just as good as any other number. The fact that it's a big healthy number makes the guessing more fun I suppose. 
 

Edited April 17, 2022 by comix4fun