Purchasing less due to poor stock market results 1 1

[KirbyCollector]

I don't know about anyone else on here, but I am definitely scaling back purchases the rest of 2022 due to poor stock market performance. I'm currently committed to buy three more pages (and might have a shot at a bargain page in the CC auction), but that might be it for the year. Whatever HA and CLink has on deck for November, well, you won't have to bid against me LOL

Edited September 16, 2022 by KirbyCollector

[malvin]

On 9/16/2022 at 10:18 AM, KirbyCollector said:

I don't know about anyone else on here, but I am definitely scaling back purchases the rest of 2022 due to poor stock market performance. I'm currently committed to buy three more pages (and might have a shot at a bargain page in the CC auction), but that might be it for the year. Whatever HA and CLink has on deck for November, well, you won't have to bid against me LOL

does that mean your budget/purchase plans will change if the stock market recovers within 2022?

Malvin

[Bronty]

there are headwinds everywhere, but to some extent I think you have to at least partly ignore them the same way we at least partly ignored the tailwinds when things were getting crazy elsewhere..    Things have gone up slower and more steady as opposed to overshooting and pulling back the way things like cards did.    Before anyone jumps on that and says the gains haven't been slow and steady, they were compared to other markets... the gains say a year and a half ago looked glacial in comparison, and I'm speaking in the relative here.

I know I personally made an offer this morning that ignored macro conditions entirely.    Its a piece I want, and I think its a good if pricey buy, and if I can buy it I will despite what's going on around me here.

Edited September 16, 2022 by Bronty

[Rick2you2]

On 9/16/2022 at 1:18 PM, KirbyCollector said:

I don't know about anyone else on here, but I am definitely scaling back purchases the rest of 2022 due to poor stock market performance. I'm currently committed to buy three more pages (and might have a shot at a bargain page in the CC auction), but that might be it for the year. Whatever HA and CLink has on deck for November, well, you won't have to bid against me LOL

Don’t forget the other side of the coin: it may encourage owners to sell so they can have a little more play money. And, they may be a bit hungry. 

[KirbyCollector]

On 9/16/2022 at 1:41 PM, malvin said:

does that mean your budget/purchase plans will change if the stock market recovers within 2022?

Malvin

I've spent around 50K this year already and am very happy with all my art, it's probably a good idea to slow down anyway

Edited September 17, 2022 by KirbyCollector

[pemart1966]

Perfect example as to why everyone needs a diversified portfolio.

[grapeape]

I was gonna diversify into sports cards until I heard these words.

“Do ya dip Daniel?”

 

[tth2]

On 9/17/2022 at 11:11 AM, grapeape said:

I was gonna diversify into sports cards

I was going to diversify into sports cards and sports memorabilia until I heard that they were already crashing. 

But then I read that a Mickey Mantle card just went for $12.6m and 2 Justin Herbert cards went for over $1m each, and a Michael Jordan jersey went for over $10m, soon after a Diego Maradona jersey went for over $9m.  If that's a crash, I'd hate to see what they were going for before!

So now I'm just very confused.

[AnkurJ]

On 9/17/2022 at 9:26 AM, tth2 said:

I was going to diversify into sports cards and sports memorabilia until I heard that they were already crashing. 

But then I read that a Mickey Mantle card just went for $12.6m and 2 Justin Herbert cards went for over $1m each, and a Michael Jordan jersey went for over $10m, soon after a Diego Maradona jersey went for over $9m.  If that's a crash, I'd hate to see what they were going for before!

So now I'm just very confused.

What has crashed are cards that were overly inflated. The blue chips like the 52 Mantle, Ruth, Cobb etc are still strong. 

[tth2]

On 9/17/2022 at 9:47 PM, AnkurJ said:

What has crashed are cards that were overly inflated. The blue chips like the 52 Mantle, Ruth, Cobb etc are still strong. 

Justin Herbert is a blue chip?

[tth2]

If there is not a crash across the board, and particularly in the best pieces, then I don't consider there to have been a crash.  Otherwise, we'd be saying that comics crashed in the 1980s because the B&Ws crashed, but of course nobody says that (unless they want to be laughed at).

I agree with Gene that the fine art market crashed in the 1990s from their 1980s peaks because works by Van Gogh and Picasso collapsed along with lots of lesser works.  

[jjonahjameson11]

On 9/16/2022 at 1:18 PM, KirbyCollector said:

I don't know about anyone else on here, but I am definitely scaling back purchases the rest of 2022 due to poor stock market performance. I'm currently committed to buy three more pages (and might have a shot at a bargain page in the CC auction), but that might be it for the year. Whatever HA and CLink has on deck for November, well, you won't have to bid against me LOL

Excellent post.  
Everyone, please follow KirbyCollector’s advice and refrain from bidding in November’s Heritage auction!  I will personally thank you for it 🤣

[grapeape]

On 9/17/2022 at 6:26 AM, tth2 said:

I was going to diversify into sports cards and sports memorabilia until I heard that they were already crashing. 

But then I read that a Mickey Mantle card just went for $12.6m and 2 Justin Herbert cards went for over $1m each, and a Michael Jordan jersey went for over $10m, soon after a Diego Maradona jersey went for over $9m.  If that's a crash, I'd hate to see what they were going for before!

So now I'm just very confused.

You don't have to be confused. Legitimate dealers and breakers help reach those highlights that you mentioned. I'm jabbing at the scammers (the sports card world is crawling with them) who are a threat for someone moving in to that market for diversification of their portfolio. Also all the cards and memorabilia you mentioned would be out of reach for 99% of us here on the board. 

It was a joke and more of a caution then a Recommend Don't Buy. I have MTG cards, sports cards and Comic trading cards. I might even have a few Pokemon cards that I'd never admit publicly :-). I don't think the sky is falling as we know since the beginning of pre pandemic the wealth of sports memorabilia was estimated @ $5.4 billion (Forbes 2018)

Do ya Dip is a reference to what's wrong with the Sports card world. I'm surprised you got your back up on this one??? Investors who diversify and find out they bought trimmed cards, repackaged wax cards, resealed boxes, authenticated $3.5M Pokemon sealed box that was full of GI Joe's.... and on and on won't take comfort in the fact that a few guys are raking in the dough. 

Okay so for the record my buddy tth2 and I are on the same side I'm guessing in so far as I don't want to lose value in the cards I have. 

tth2 could be right. Market Decipher reports the wealth of sports memorabilia last year had grown to $26 Billion and  predicts that within ten years it will grow to $227 billion. (Bobby Caina Calvan Associated Press  8/28/2022.)

I'm not a sky is falling guy you all know that. grape ape is always

1) Trust but verify the FMV and health of whatever market I'm investing in

2) Expose potential dangers

I'm always going to point out that for every $12.6M BB card there's also scammers looking to manipulate the market and rip off new collectors.

OK. Enough this is an OA thread.

What would a good piece of art (value) be to exchange for a 86 Fleer MJ rookie card?

OK seriously tth2 I'm only warning collectors. The thread was about cutting back because of the gut punch stock market losses. It's natural to look for other places to keep money safe or grow. These worlds of memorabilia and OA have a lot in common. Fueled by passion for nostalgia. Rife with FOMO. Just be careful out there.

Edited September 17, 2022 by grapeape

[batman_fan]

On 9/17/2022 at 7:26 AM, tth2 said:

I was going to diversify into sports cards and sports memorabilia until I heard that they were already crashing. 

But then I read that a Mickey Mantle card just went for $12.6m and 2 Justin Herbert cards went for over $1m each, and a Michael Jordan jersey went for over $10m, soon after a Diego Maradona jersey went for over $9m.  If that's a crash, I'd hate to see what they were going for before!

So now I'm just very confused.

I have diversified into candles, canned beans, dry rice, and ammo.

[oldwhy]

On 9/16/2022 at 10:18 AM, KirbyCollector said:

and might have a shot at a bargain page in the CC auction),

I really hope you’ll share that bargain page after the auction. Drives me nuts that I can’t figure out which item you might be referring to !

Edited September 17, 2022 by oldwhy

[Rick2you2]

On 9/17/2022 at 9:47 AM, AnkurJ said:

What has crashed are cards that were overly inflated. The blue chips like the 52 Mantle, Ruth, Cobb etc are still strong. 

I just look in wonder at what people will pay for cardboard, crummy photo duplicates and statistics. At least we get real, original artwork. 
 

 

 

 

[tth2]

On 9/17/2022 at 11:33 PM, grapeape said:

Do ya Dip is a reference to what's wrong with the Sports card world. I'm surprised you got your back up on this one???

I didn't actually understand the "Do ya Dip" comment. 

I didn't really have my back up, I was mostly poking fun at all the chicken littles out there.  And pointing out that I keep hearing about a crashing sports card market but at the same time I keep hearing about record prices, to illustrate that a crash has to be across the board and affect even the best pieces and smartest buyers to truly be a crash.

If it's only crashing for the most speculative, garbage pieces, then it's just yet another fleecing of the stupid lambs, not a crash.

In the GA Forum, a list has been put together illustrating the bath that resellers have been taking on the Promise books.  This doesn't indicate to me that there's a crash going on in comics or in OA, just that people who overpay for books and then compound the problem by reselling them too quickly are bound to lose their shirts. 

[batman_fan]

On 9/17/2022 at 7:10 PM, tth2 said:

I didn't actually understand the "Do ya Dip" comment. 

I didn't really have my back up, I was mostly poking fun at all the chicken littles out there.  And pointing out that I keep hearing about a crashing sports card market but at the same time I keep hearing about record prices, to illustrate that a crash has to be across the board and affect even the best pieces and smartest buyers to truly be a crash.

If it's only crashing for the most speculative, garbage pieces, then it's just yet another fleecing of the stupid lambs, not a crash.

In the GA Forum, a list has been put together illustrating the bath that resellers have been taking on the Promise books.  This doesn't indicate to me that there's a crash going on in comics or in OA, just that people who overpay for books and then compound the problem by reselling them too quickly are bound to lose their shirts. 

One just has to look at the Billy Wright books auctioned on Heritage.  Several were flipped immediately and went for way less but folks selling what they originally purchased now are doing pretty good.

[grapeape]

On 9/16/2022 at 8:11 PM, grapeape said:

Edited September 19, 2022 by grapeape

[delekkerste]

On 9/17/2022 at 9:26 AM, tth2 said:

I was going to diversify into sports cards and sports memorabilia until I heard that they were already crashing. 

But then I read that a Mickey Mantle card just went for $12.6m and 2 Justin Herbert cards went for over $1m each, and a Michael Jordan jersey went for over $10m, soon after a Diego Maradona jersey went for over $9m.  If that's a crash, I'd hate to see what they were going for before!

So now I'm just very confused.

There are some fools at the tippety-top of the hobby still throwing around insane money on an ever-narrowing number of cards. Most cards peaked in Q1 2021 and are well off their highs (50%+ in many/most cases). High end cards largely held up until this year but every month that has passed has claimed more victims to the ever-growing bear market. 

That Mantle card undershot many peoples' expectations at $12.6 million. In many of these insane sales, you're seeing pent-up demand for rare objects that have not been available for sale for decades and so of course you're going to get huge prices. That said, in many cases, the prices would have been even more 6-12 months ago, so, arguably, values have already declined.  

Case in point, and taking it back to comic book art - a piece sold at auction at Heritage back in 2019. Earlier this year, the same piece got an offer of $X through Heritage's Make an Offer system that was turned down by the owner, who ended up consigning it to Heritage where it actually sold for less to a friend. That buyer from earlier this year was no longer at that level.  

Edited September 19, 2022 by delekkerste